An ensemble modeling approach to predict spatial risk patches of the Persian leopard-livestock conflicts in Lorestan Province, Iran.

This study was conducted in the Lorestan Province in the west of Iran with two objectives of identifying major environmental variables in spatial risk modeling and identifying spatial risk patches of livestock predation by the Persian leopard. An ensemble approach of three models of maximum entropy (MaxEnt), generalized boosting model (GBM), and random forest (RF) were applied for spatial risk modeling. Our results revealed that livestock density, distance to villages, forest density, and human population density were the most important variables in spatial risk modeling of livestock predation by the leopard. The center of the study area had the highest probability of livestock predation by the leopard. Ten spatial risk patches of livestock predation by the leopard were identified in the study area. In order to mitigate the revenge killing of the leopards, the findings of this study highlight the imperative of implementing strategies by the Department of Environment (DoE) to effectively accompany the herds entering the wildlife habitats with shepherds and a manageable number of guarding dogs. Accordingly, the identified risk patches in this study deserve considerable attention, especially three primary patches found in the center and southeast of Lorestan Province.

A worldwide perspective on large carnivore attacks on humans.

Large carnivores have long fascinated human societies and have profound influences on ecosystems. However, their conservation represents one of the greatest challenges of our time, particularly where attacks on humans occur. Where human recreational and/or livelihood activities overlap with large carnivore ranges, conflicts can become particularly serious. Two different scenarios are responsible for such overlap: In some regions of the world, increasing human populations lead to extended encroachment into large carnivore ranges, which are subject to increasing contraction, fragmentation, and degradation. In other regions, human and large carnivore populations are expanding, thus exacerbating conflicts, especially in those areas where these species were extirpated and are now returning. We thus face the problem of learning how to live with species that can pose serious threats to humans. We collected a total of 5,440 large carnivore (Felidae, Canidae, and Ursidae; 12 species) attacks worldwide between 1950 and 2019. The number of reported attacks increased over time, especially in lower-income countries. Most attacks (68%) resulted in human injuries, whereas 32% were fatal. Although attack scenarios varied greatly within and among species, as well as in different areas of the world, factors triggering large carnivore attacks on humans largely depend on the socioeconomic context, with people being at risk mainly during recreational activities in high-income countries and during livelihood activities in low-income countries. The specific combination of local socioeconomic and ecological factors is thus a risky mix triggering large carnivore attacks on humans, whose circumstances and frequencies cannot only be ascribed to the animal species. This also implies that effective measures to reduce large carnivore attacks must also consider the diverse local ecological and social contexts.

Identifying core habitats and corridors of a near threatened carnivore, striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) in southwestern Iran.

Conservation of large carnivores requires preservation of extensive core habitats and linkages among them. The goal of this study was to identify core habitats and corridors by predicting habitat suitability (an ensemble approach), and calculating resistant kernel and factorial least-cost path modeling for a relatively unknown carnivore, the striped hyaena in Khuzestan area in southwestern Iran. We used the procedure of spatial randomization test to evaluate the coincidence of striped hyaena road crossing with the predicted corridors. The results revealed that elevation, distance to conservation areas, categorical climate and grasslands density were the most influential variables for predicting the occurrence of the striped hyaena in the study area. In the estimated dispersal distance of 70 km, four core habitats were identified. The largest core habitat was located in the northeast of the study area with the highest connectivity contribution. Only about 12% and 1.5% of core habitats and corridors were protected by conservation areas, respectively. Predicted corridors, crossed by roads represented a high risk for striped hyaenas. Adaptive management plan throughout the landscape (conservation of core habitats and corridors, and reducing species mortality on the roads) must be considered by wildlife managers in Iran.

Habitat suitability and connectivity implications for the conservation of the Persian leopard along the Iran-Iraq border.

Habitat fragmentation has major negative impacts on wildlife populations, and the connectivity could reduce these negative impacts. This study was conducted to assess habitat suitability and structural connectivity of the Persian leopard along the Iran-Iraq border (i.e., the Zagros Mountains) and compare the situation of identified core habitats and connectivity with existing conservation areas (CAs). An ensemble modeling approach resulting from five models was used to predict habitat suitability. To identify core habitats and corridors along the Iran-Iraq border, factorial least-cost path analyses were applied. The results revealed that topographic roughness, distance to CAs, annual precipitation, vegetation/cropland density, and distance to rivers were the most influential variables for predicting the occurrence of the Persian leopard in the study area. By an estimated dispersal distance of 82 km (suggested by previous studies), three core habitats were identified (two cores in Iran and one core in Iraq). The largest cores were located in the south and the center of the study area, which had the highest connectivity priorities. The connectivity from these cores was maintained to the core within the Iraqi side. Only about one-fifth of detected core habitats and relative corridors were protected by CAs in the study area. Detected core habitats and connectivity areas in this study could be an appropriate road map to accomplish the CAs network along the Iran-Iraq border regarding Persian leopard conservation. Establishing transboundary CAs, particularly in the core habitat located in the center of the study area, is strongly recommended to conserve existing large carnivores, including the Persian leopard.

Integrating spatial analysis and questionnaire survey to better understand human-onager conflict in Southern Iran.

Southern Iran is a conservation priority area for the endangered Persian onager (Equus hemionus onager), which is threatened by habitat fragmentation and conflict with local communities. To better understand factors that influence onager conservation, we administered a questionnaire in local communities to survey their ecological knowledge, personal experience related to onager, and attitudes toward traditional solutions for reducing crop damage by onager. In addition, we used resistant kernel and factorial least-cost path analyses to identify core areas and corridors for onager movement, and spatial randomization of vehicle collisions and crossing locations to test the predictive ability of resistant kernel and factorial least-cost path predictions of movement. We found that local communities that were knowledgeable about onagers experienced less crop damage from onager compared with those who used traditional methods. Habitat connectivity models revealed that core areas of movement are highly concentrated at the center of protected areas. Some sections of core areas have been cut off by roads where most vehicle collisions with onagers occurred. We propose that effective onager conservation will require integrated landscape-level management to reduce mortality risk, protection of core areas and corridors, development of mitigation strategies to reduce vehicle collisions, and conflict mediation between local communities and onagers.