Using Modeling All Alternatives to explore 55% decarbonization scenarios of the European electricity sector.

Climate change mitigation is a global challenge that, however, needs to be resolved by national-level authorities, resembling a "tragedy of the commons". This paradox is reflected at the European scale, as climate commitments are made by the EU collectively, but implementation is the responsibility of individual Member States. Here, we investigate a suite of near-optimal effort-sharing scenarios where the European electricity sector is decarbonized between 55% and 75% relative to 1990, in line with 2030 ambitions. To this end, we use a brownfield electricity system optimization model in combination with the Modeling All Alternatives methodology. Results show that only very particular effort-sharing schemes are able to reach the theoretical minimum system cost. In most cases, an additional cost of at least 5% is incurred. Results reveal large inequalities in the efforts required to decarbonize national electricity sectors.

Strengthening the policy framework to resolve lax implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan for agriculture.

In this perspective article, we provide recommendations for strengthening the policy framework for protecting the Baltic Sea from agricultural nutrient pollution. The most striking weakness is the lax implementation of prescribed abatement measures, particularly concerning manure management, in most countries. Institutions of the EU should also be leveraged for achieving Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) goals. In contrast to the Helsinki Convention, the European Union has economic, political and legal mandates to further implementation and compliance. Equally important is the need for strengthening of local institutions, particularly Water Boards and independent agricultural advisory services in the eastern Baltic Sea Region countries. There is also an urgent need for implementation of voluntary land-use measures where EU funding available to farmers is more broadly and effectively used by providing it on the basis of estimated abatement performance, which can be realized through modelling. The enormous potential for funding performance-based schemes, manure management infrastructure and advisory services through the EU's Common Agricultural Policy are currently underutilized.

Promise and performance of agricultural nutrient management policy: Lessons from the Baltic Sea.

Following decades of international collaboration to restore the Baltic Sea, we provide an assessment of the domestic implementation of measures agreed to limit diffuse agricultural pollution and the patterns of policy instruments applied. Despite the Helsinki Convention being unusually specific in detailing what measures countries should introduce, we find many shortcomings. These are most pronounced in the larger countries (Poland, Germany and Russia), while smaller countries perform better, notably Sweden and Estonia. The patterns of policy instruments applied differ, influenced by domestic politics. The limited use of complementary policy instruments suggests that other priorities overrule full and effective implementation, with engagement mirroring the advantages that a restored Baltic Sea can bring to countries. Using the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development to support farmers in managing nutrients, particularly advisory services and investments in modern manure management technologies, represents a significant opportunity for reducing agricultural pollution in most countries.

Economic benefits of reducing agricultural N losses to coastal waters for seaside recreation and real estate value in Denmark.

We estimate economic benefits for seaside recreation and waterfront property when reducing nitrogen leaching to coastal water bodies. We apply impact pathway and benefit transfer methodology, linking total nitrogen concentration to water clarity (Secchi-depth). Ten catchments are analyzed comparing results for 2010 to a policy scenario that complies with the EU Water Framework Directive. The scenario reduces leaching with 5200 ton N, downstream discharges to estuaries by 35% and provide significant Secchi-depth improvements. Our integrated assessment predicts an annual economic benefit for local residents of €35 million, and co-benefits of up to €57 million. Benefits are catchment-specific and differ for downstream discharges from €1 to €32 per kg N, while for upstream discharge losses they range up to €10 per kg N. When expressed per unit of farmland the policy scenario displays economic benefits spanning €8-176/ha. The span reflects the different physical, biological and human circumstances of each catchment.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3.

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Long-term human exposure to lead from different media and intake pathways.

Lead (Pb) is well known as an environmental pollutant: it can accumulate in various media, so actual lead exposure reflects both historical and present contaminations. Two main challenges then emerge: obtaining updated information to gain an overall picture of the sources of exposure, and predicting the resulting internal body exposure levels and effects that occur under long-term exposure conditions. In this paper, a modeling approach is used to meet these challenges with reference to Danish exposure conditions. Levels of lead content in various media have been coupled with data for lead intake and absorption in the human body, for both children and adults. An age-dependent biokinetic model allows then for determination of the blood lead levels resulting from chronic exposure. The study shows that the actual intake of lead is up to 27% of the Provisional Tolerable Daily Intake (PTDI) for children and around 8% for adults. It is confirmed that the critical route of exposure is via ingestion, accounting for 99% of total lead intake, while inhalation contributes only to 1% of total lead intake. The resulting lead levels in the blood after 2 years of exposure to actual contamination conditions have been estimated as up to 2.2µg/dl in children and almost 1µg/dl in adults. Impacts from lead can occur even at such levels. The role of historical and present sources to lead in the environment is discussed, and, for specific child and adult exposure scenarios, external-internal concentration relationships for the direct linkage between lead in environmental media and resulting concentrations of lead in blood are then presented.

External costs of atmospheric Pb emissions: valuation of neurotoxic impacts due to inhalation.

BACKGROUND: The Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) is an innovative methodology to establish links between emissions, related impacts and monetary estimates. Only few attempts have so far been presented regarding emissions of metals; in this study the external costs of airborne lead (Pb) emissions are assessed using the IPA. Exposure to Pb is known to provoke impacts especially on children's cognition. As cognitive abilities (measured as IQ, intelligence quotient) are known to have implications for lifetime income, a pathway can be established leading from figures for Pb emissions to the implied loss in earnings, and on this basis damage costs per unit of Pb emission can be assessed. METHODS: Different types of models are here linked. It is relatively straightforward to establish the relationship between Pb emissions and consequent increase in air-Pb concentration, by means of a Gaussian plume dispersion model (OML). The exposed population can then be modelled by linking the OML-output to population data nested in geo-referenced grid cells. Less straightforward is to establish the relationship between exposure to air-Pb concentrations and the resulting blood-Pb concentration. Here an Age-Dependent Biokinetic Model (ADBM) for Pb is applied. On basis of previous research which established links between increases in blood-Pb concentrations during childhood and resulting IQ-loss we arrive at our results. RESULTS: External costs of Pb airborne emissions, even at low doses, in our site are in the range of 41-83 euro/kg emitted Pb, depending on the considered meteorological year. This estimate applies only to the initial effects of air-Pb, as our study does not address the effects due to the Pb environmental-accumulation and to the subsequent Pb re-exposure. These are likely to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher. CONCLUSIONS: Biokinetic modelling is a novel tool not previously included when applying the IPA to explore impacts of Pb emissions and related external costs; it allows for more fine-tuned, age-dependent figures for the external costs from low-dose exposure. Valuation of additional health effects and impacts e.g. due to exposure via ingestion appear to be feasible when extending the insights from the present pilot study.