Exploring Cascading Disaster Risk During Complex Emergencies: Chemical Industry Disaster Risk Assessment in the Aftermath of the Kakhovka Dam Bombing in Ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: This risk assessment aims to investigate the analysis of cascading disaster risks from the perspective of the chemical industry and public health subsequent to the Kakhovka dam bombing in Ukraine. METHOD: The study utilized a modified observational cross-sectional risk assessment method to assess disaster risk. The method involved identifying the location of chemical factories, determining flooded or at-risk factories, analyzing the type and frequency of chemical hazards, assessing population exposure, and plotting a disaster risk metric. Data on chemical industries and flood extent were collected from open-source secondary data. RESULTS: The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023 led to severe flooding, placing 42 000 individuals at risk. The analysis identified four chemical factories, with 1 affected by flooding and 3 at risk. The overall risk assessment indicated a high likelihood and severe consequences, including loss of life, environmental contamination, and property damage. CONCLUSION: The combination of complex emergencies and high-risk chemical facilities in Kherson Oblast poses a significant risk of a chemical industry disaster. The interplay between compound and cascading risks during complex emergencies amid the current war further exacerbates the situation, leading to the devastation and destruction of the environment to the detriment of life, and aligns with the characterization of ecocide.

Assessment of open data kit mobile technology adoption to enhance reporting of supportive supervision conducted for oral poliovirus vaccine supplementary immunization activities in Nigeria, March 2017-February 2020.

Introduction: in Nigeria, supportive supervision of Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIA) is a quality improvement strategy for providing support to vaccination teams administering the poliovirus vaccines to children under 5 years of age. Supervision activities were initially reported in paper forms. This had significant limitations, which led to Open Data Kit (ODK) technology being adopted in March 2017. A review was conducted to assess the impact of ODK for supervision reporting in place of paper forms. Methods: issues with paper-based reporting and the benefits of ODK were recounted. We determined the average utilization of ODK per polio SIA rounds and assessed the supervision coverage over time based on the proportion of local government areas with ODK geolocation data per round. Results: a total of 17 problematic issues were identified with paper-based reporting, and ODK addressed all the issues. Open Data Kit-based supervision reports increased from 3,125 in March 2017 to 51,060 in February 2020. Average ODK submissions for national rounds increased from 84 in March 2017 to 459 in February 2020 and for sub-national rounds increased from 533 in July 2017 to 1,596 in October 2019. Supportive supervision coverage improved from 42.5% in March 2017 to 97% in February 2020. Conclusion: the use of digital technologies in public health has comparative advantages over paper forms, and the adoption of ODK for supervision reporting during polio SIAs in Nigeria experienced the advantages. The visibility and coverage of supportive supervision improved, consequentially contributing to the improved quality of polio SIAs.

Descriptive epidemiology of poliomyelitis cases due to wild poliovirus type 1 and wild poliovirus type 3 in Nigeria, 2000-2020.

Introduction: in August 2020, the World Health Organization African Region was certified free of wild poliovirus (WPV) when Nigeria became the last African country to interrupt wild poliovirus transmission. The National Polio Emergency Operations Center instituted in 2012 to coordinate and manage Nigerian polio eradication efforts reviewed the epidemiology of WPV cases during 2000-2020 to document lessons learned. Methods: we analyzed reported WPV cases by serotype based on age, oral poliovirus vaccine immunization history, month and year of reported cases, and annual geographic distribution based on incidence rates at the Local Government Area level. The observed trends of cases were related to major events and the poliovirus vaccines used during mass vaccination campaigns within the analysis period. Results: a total of 3,579 WPV type 1 and 1,548 WPV type 3 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported with onset during 2000-2020. The highest WPV incidence rates per 100,000 population in Local Government Areas were 19.4, 12.0, and 11.3, all in 2006. Wild poliovirus cases were reported each year during 2000-2014; the endemic transmission went undetected throughout 2015 until the last cases in 2016. Ten events/milestones were highlighted, including insurgency in the northeast which led to a setback in 2016 with four cases from children previously trapped in security-compromised areas. Conclusion: Nigeria interrupted WPV transmission despite the challenges faced because of the emergency management approach, implementation of mass vaccination campaigns, the commitment of the government agencies, support from global polio partners, and special strategies deployed to conduct vaccination and surveillance in the security-compromised areas.

Providing information for decision-making in the Nigerian Polio Eradication Program, 2016-2020.

Nigeria made a coordinated effort to be certified by the World Health Organization's African Region for interrupting endemic transmission of wild poliovirus type-1 (WPV1) in August 2020 as a response to the resurgence of WPV1 cases in August 2016 after going two years without a case. The NEOC Data Working Group (DWG) was instrumental in providing quality and timely surveillance and campaign information for decision-making in order to interrupt WPV1 transmission and provide data toward documentation of its elimination for regional certification. The polio pre-campaign dashboard was used to assess the level of preparedness for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) polio supplementary immunization activities (SIA) at three weeks, two weeks, one week, and three days to the start of each campaign implemented during 2016-2020. The administrative tally sheet, independent monitoring survey, and Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) survey data collected and shared from the implementation level were analyzed by the EOC DWG to provide information by person, place, and time. Using a 90% threshold in LQAS surveys defining quality SIAs, the proportion of Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Nigeria's states in which post-SIA LQAS surveys were conducted that met this threshold were assessed over time. The highest level of preparedness attained by 3 days to a polio campaign during August 2016-February 2020 was 95% and the lowest attained was 77%. The admin, independent monitoring, and LQAS data analysis results were given to EOC working groups for assessing the performance and quality of each campaign. Twenty-twenty five percent of LGAs that failed LQAS were identified for repeat vaccination. Further, acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance data and laboratory results were analyzed and shared with NEOC and partners. The government and partners used the information generated by the Data Working Group to take evidence-based action including determining the scope of the polio campaign, intensification of surveillance and routine immunization activities, and special intervention activities. On average, 12% of the 774 LGAs were identified as polio high risk LGAs for intervention using selected surveillance, routine immunization (RI), SIAs, and other relevant data sets. National Emergency Operation Centre Data Working Group provided quality and timely information that supported decision-making processes for the polio program in Nigeria. The quality and timely information enabled the NEOC to make evidence-based and timely decisions that contributed to gap identification and decision-making.

Finding inhabited settlements and tracking vaccination progress: the application of satellite imagery analysis to guide the immunization response to confirmation of previously-undetected, ongoing endemic wild poliovirus transmission in Borno State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Four wild polio-virus cases were reported in Borno State, Nigeria 2016, 1 year after Nigeria had been removed from the list of polio endemic countries by the World Health Organization. Resulting from Nigeria's decade long conflict with Boko Haram, health officials had been unable to access as much as 60% of the settlements in Borno, hindering vaccination and surveillance efforts. This lack of accessibility made it difficult for the government to assess the current population distribution within Borno. This study aimed to use high resolution, visible band satellite imagery to assess the habitation of inaccessible villages in Borno State. METHODS: Using high resolution (31-50 cm) imagery from DigitalGlobe, analysts evaluated the habitation status of settlements in Borno State identified by Nigeria's Vaccination Tracking System. The analysts looked at imagery of each settlement and, using vegetation (overgrowth vs. cleared) as a proxy for human habitation, classified settlements into three categories: inhabited, partially abandoned, and abandoned. Analysts also classified the intact percentage of each settlement starting at 0% (totally destroyed since last assessment) and increasing in 25% intervals through 100% (completely intact but not expanded) up to 200+% (more than doubled in size) by looking for destroyed buildings. These assessments were then used to adjust previously established population estimates for each settlement. These new population distributions were compared to vaccination efforts to determine the number of children under 5 unreached by vaccination teams. RESULTS: Of the 11,927 settlements assessed 3203 were assessed as abandoned (1892 of those completely destroyed), 662 as partially abandoned, and 8062 as fully inhabited as of December of 2017. Comparing the derived population estimates from the new assessments to previous assessment and the activities of vaccination teams shows that an estimated 180,155 of the 337,411 under five children who were unreached in 2016 were reached in 2017 (70.5% through vaccination efforts in previously inaccessible areas, 29.5% through displacement to accessible areas). CONCLUSIONS: This study's methodology provides important planning and situation awareness information to health workers in Borno, Nigeria, and may serve as a model for future data gathering efforts in inaccessible regions.

Transboundary nomadic population movement: a potential for import-export of poliovirus.

BACKGROUND: Nomadic populations have a considerably higher risk of contracting a number of diseases but, despite the magnitude of the public health risks involved, they are mostly underserved with few health policies or plans to target them. Nomadic population movements are shown to be a niche for the transmission of diseases, including poliomyelitis. The nomadic routes traverse the northern states of Nigeria to other countries in the Lake Chad subregion. As part of the February 2016 polio supplemental immunization activity (SIA) plans in Bauchi state, a review of nomadic routes and populations identified a nomadic population who originated from outside the international borders of Nigeria. This study describes the engagement process for a transboundary nomadic population and the interventions provided to improve population immunity among them while traversing through Nigeria. METHODS: This was an intervention study which involved a cross-sectional mixed-method (quantitative and qualitative) survey. Information was collected on the nomadic pastoralists entry and exit points, resting points, and health-seeking behavior using key informant interviews and semistructured questionnaire. Transit vaccination teams targeted the groups with oral polio vaccines (OPVs) and other routine antigens along identified routes during the months of February to April 2016. Mobile health teams provided immunization and other child and maternal health survival interventions. RESULTS: A total of 2015 children aged under 5 years were vaccinated with OPV, of which 264 (13.1%) were zero-dose during the February 2016 SIAs while, in the March immunization plus days (IPDs), 1864 were immunized of which 211 (11.0%) were zero-dose. A total of 296 children aged under 1 year old were given the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (penta 1), while 119 received the third dose (penta 3), giving a dropout rate of 59.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Nomadic pastoralists move across international borders and there is a need for transboundary policies among the countries in the Lake Chad region to improve population immunity and disease surveillance through a holistic approach using the One-health concept.

The role of supportive supervision using mobile technology in monitoring and guiding program performance: a case study in Nigeria, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Supportive supervision is one of the interventions that fosters program improvement by way of imparting knowledge and skills to health workers. The basic challenge in supportive supervision is the availability of data in real time for timely and effective feedback. Thus, the main objective of this study was to determine the contribution of real-time data collection during supportive supervision for timely feedback and generation of evidence for health intervention planning. METHODS: We analyzed supportive supervision records collected through handheld devices employing the open data kit (ODK) platform from July 2015 to June 2016. Supervision was conducted across the country by 592 World Health Organization (WHO) officers. The availability of real-time data and the distance of health facilities to the community were analyzed. RESULTS: During the study period, 90,396 health facilities were supervised. The average time spent during supervision varied from 1.53 to 3.78 h across the six geopolitical zones of the country. The average interval between completion of the supervisory checklist and synchronization with the server varied from 3.9 h to 7.5 h. The average distance between the health facility and a ward varied from 5 to 24 km. CONCLUSION: The use of handheld devices for supportive supervision provided real-time data from health facilities to state and zonal levels for analysis and feedback. Program officers used the findings to rectify process indicators in time for a better outcome.

Characteristics of wild polio virus outbreak investigation and response in Ethiopia in 2013-2014: implications for prevention of outbreaks due to importations.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia joined the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1996, and by the end of December 2001 circulation of indigenous Wild Polio Virus (WPV) had been interrupted. Nonetheless, the country experienced multiple importations during 2004-2008, and in 2013. We characterize the 2013 outbreak investigations and response activities, and document lessons learned. METHOD: The data were pulled from different field investigation reports and from the national surveillance database for Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP). RESULTS: In 2013, a WPV1 outbreak was confirmed following importation in Dollo zone of the Somali region, which affected three Woredas (Warder, Geladi and Bokh). Between July 10, 2013, and January 5, 2014, there were 10 children paralyzed due to WPV1 infection. The majorities (7 of 10) were male and below 5 years of age, and 7 of 10 cases was not vaccinated, and 72% (92/129) of < 5 years of old children living in close proximity with WPV cases had zero doses of oral polio vaccine (OPV). The travel history of the cases showed that seven of the 10 cases had contact with someone who had traveled or had a travel history prior to the onset of paralysis. Underserved and inaccessibility of routine immunization service, suboptimal surveillance sensitivity, poor quality and inadequate supplemental immunization were the most crucial gaps identified during the outbreak investigations. CONCLUSION: Prior to the 2013 outbreak, Ethiopia experienced multiple imported polio outbreaks following the interruption of indigenous WPV in December 2001. The 2013 outbreak erupted due to massive population movement and was fueled by low population immunity as a result of low routine immunization and supplemental Immunization coverage and quality. In order to avert future outbreaks, it is critical that surveillance sensitivity be improved by establishing community-based surveillance systems and by assigning surveillance focal points at all level particularly in border areas. In addition, it is vital to set up in hard to reach areas a functional immunization service delivery system using the "Reaching Every Child" approach, including periodic routine immunization intensification and supplemental immunization activities.

Assessment of source of information for polio supplementary immunization activities in 2014 and 2015, Somali, Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Communication is key for the successful implementation of polio vaccination campaigns. The purpose of this study is to review and analyse the sources of information utilized by caregivers during polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in Somali, Ethiopia in 2014 and 2015. METHODS: Data on sources of information about the polio campaign were collected post campaign from caregivers by trained data collectors as part of house to house independent monitoring. The sources of information analysed in this paper include town criers (via megaphones), health workers, religious leaders, kebele leaders (Kebele is the lowest administrative structure in Ethiopia), radio, television, text message and others. The repetition of these sources of information was analysed across years and zones for trends. Polio vaccination campaign coverage was also reviewed by year and zones within the Somali region in parallel with the major sources of information used in the respective year and zones. 57,745 responses were used for this analysis but the responses were received from < or = 57,745 individuals since some of them may provide more than one response. Moreover, because sampling of households is conducted independently during each round of independent monitoring, the same household may have been included more than once in our analysis. The methodology used for independent monitoring does not allow for the calculation of response rates. Monitors go from house to house until information from 20 households is received. RESULTS: From the total 57,745 responses reviewed, over 37% of respondents reported that town criers were their source for information about the 2014 and 2015 polio SIAs. Zonal trends in using town criers as a major source of information in both study years remained consistent except in two zones. 87.5% of zones that reported at least 90% coverage during both study years had utilized town criers as a major source of information while the rest (12.5%) used health workers. CONCLUSION: We found that town criers were consistently the major source of information about the polio campaigns for Somali region parents and caregivers during polio immunization days held in 2014 and 2015. Health workers and kebele leaders were also important sources of information about the polio campaign for parents.

Analysis of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in Ethiopia, 2005-2015: progress and challenges.

INTRODUCTION: Ethiopia joined the global effort to eradicate polio in 1996, and interrupted indigenous wild poliovirus transmission by December 2001. However, the country experienced numerous separate importations during 2003-2013. Sensitive Acute Flaccid (AFP) surveillance is critical to rule out undetected circulation of WPV and VDPVs. METHODS: In this study described, we used a retrospective descriptive study design to characterize the surveillance performance from 2005 to 2015. RESULTS: The none-polio AFP rate improved from 2.6/100,000 children <15 years old in 2005 to 3.1 in 2015, while stool adequacy has also improved from 78.5% in 2005 to 92 % in 2015. At the national level, most AFP surveillance performance indicators are achieved and maintained over the years, however, AFP surveillance performance at sub-national level varies greatly particularly in pastoralist regions. In addition, the minimum standard for non-polio enterovirus isolation rate (10%) was not achieved except in 2007 and 2009. Nevertheless, the proportion of cases investigated within 2 days of notification and the proportion of specimens arriving in good condition within 3 days to the laboratory were maintained throughout all the years reviewed. CONCLUSION: We found that the AFP surveillance system was efficient and progressively improved over the past 10 years in Ethiopia. However, the subnational AFP surveillance performance varies and were not maintained, particularly in pastoralist regions, and the non-polio enterovirus isolation rate declined since 2010. We recommend the institution of community-based surveillance in pastoralist regions and conduct detail review of the laboratory sensitivity and the reverse cold chain system.