Effects of an urban cable car intervention on physical activity: the TrUST natural experiment in Bogotá, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Cable cars are part of the transport system in several cities in Latin America, but no evaluations of their effects on physical activity are available. TransMiCable is the first cable car in Bogotá, Colombia, and the wider intervention includes renovated parks and playgrounds. We assessed the effects of TransMiCable and the wider intervention on physical activity. METHODS: The Urban Transformations and Health natural experiment was a prospective quasi-experimental study conducted from Feb 1, 2018, to Dec 18, 2018 (baseline, pre-intervention) and from July 2, 2019, to March 15, 2020 (post-intervention follow-up) in the TransMiCable intervention area (Ciudad Bolívar settlement) and a control area without TransMiCable (San Cristóbal settlement). A multistage strategy was used to sample households in each area, with one adult (aged ≥18 years) per household invited to participate. Eligible participants had lived in the intervention or control areas for at least 2 years and were not planning to move within the next 2 years. Physical activity was assessed among participants in the intervention and control areas before and after the inauguration of TransMiCable in Ciudad Bolívar with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (long form) and with wearable accelerometers. Complete cases (those with baseline and follow-up data) were included in analyses. Respondents were classed as being physically active if they met 2020 WHO guidelines (≥150 min per week of moderate activity, ≥75 min per week of vigorous activity, or equivalent combinations); and accelerometery data were classified with the Freedson cut-points for adults. Data were also gathered in zonal parks (area ≥10 000 m2) and neighbourhood parks (area <10 000 m2) in the intervention and control areas by direct observation with the System for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities, to assess levels of physical activity before and after the TransMiCable intervention. Multilevel regression models were used to assess changes in physical activity associated with the TransMiCable intervention. FINDINGS: Physical activity questionnaires were completed by 2052 adult participants (1289 [62·8%] women and 763 [37·2%] men; mean age 43·5 years [SD 17·7]) before the inauguration of TransMiCable. After the inauguration, the follow-up (final) questionnaire sample comprised 825 adults in the intervention group and 854 in the control group, including 357 adults in the intervention group and 334 in the control group with valid accelerometery data. 334 (40·5%) of 825 participants in the intervention group reported levels of physical activity that met the 2020 WHO guidelines during walking for transport before the intervention, and 426 (51·6%) afterwards (change 11·1 percentage points [95% CI 6·4 to 15·9]). A similar change was observed in the control group (change 8·0 percentage points [3·4 to 12·5]; adjusted odds ratio [OR] for the time-by-group interaction, intervention vs control group: 1·1 [95% CI 0·8 to 1·5], p=0·38). Time spent doing moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, measured with accelerometers, did not change in the intervention group after the inauguration of TransMiCable (change -0·8 min per day [-4·6 to 3·0]) and did not change compared with the control group (adjusted ß for the time-by-group interaction: 1·4 min per day [95% CI -2·0 to 4·9], p=0·41). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was 52·1 min per day (SD 24·7) before and 59·4 min per day (35·2) after the inauguration of TransMiCable in new regular users who reported using TransMiCable during mandatory trips for work or education (n=32; change 7·3 min per day [-22·5 to 7·9]). After the intervention, an increase in the proportion of male individuals engaging in moderate or vigorous physical activity was observed in a renovated zonal park (adjusted OR for the time-by-group interaction, intervention vs control park: 2·7 [1·1 to 6·8], p=0·033). Female users of a renovated neighbourhood park were less likely to become engaged in moderate or vigorous physical activity than female users of the control area neighbourhood park (adjusted OR for the time-by-group interaction: 0·4 [0·1 to 0·6], p=0·019). INTERPRETATION: It is encouraging that walking for transport remained high in the TransMiCable intervention area when the use of private motorised transport had increased elsewhere in Bogotá. In low-income urban areas, where transport-related walking is a necessity, transport interventions should be focused on efforts to maintain participation in active travel while improving conditions under which it occurs. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (as part of the Urban Health in Latin America project); Bogotá Urban Planning Department; Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation of Colombia; Universidad de Los Andes; Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá; and Universidad del Norte. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Modeling the COVID-19 Travel Choices in Colombia and India: A Hybrid Multiple Discrete-Continuous Nested Extreme Value Approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many daily activities, primarily as a result of the perceived contagion risk and government restrictions to mitigate the spread of the virus. To this end, drastic changes in the trip choices for commuting to work have been reported and studied, mostly through descriptive analysis. On the other hand, modeling-based research that can simultaneously understand both changes in mode choice and its frequency at an individual level has not been much used in existing studies. As such, this study aims to understand the changes in mode-choice preference and the frequency of trips, comparing pre-COVID with during-COVID scenarios, in two different countries of the Global South: Colombia and India. A hybrid multiple discrete-continuous nested extreme value model was implemented using the data obtained from online surveys in Colombia and India during the early COVID-19 period of March and April 2020. This study found that, in both countries, utility related to active modes (more used) and public transportation (less used) changed during the pandemic. In addition, this study highlights potential risks in likely unsustainable futures where there may be increased use of private vehicles such as cars and motorcycles, in both countries. It was also identified that perceptions toward government responses had a significant impact on the choices in Colombia, though this was not the case in India. These results may help decision makers focus on public policies to encourage sustainable transportation by avoiding the detrimental long-term behavioral changes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the relationships between auditory and visual factors in a residential environment context: A SEM approach.

To understand the effects of specific elements that may enhance or detract residents' well-being, it is important to explore the relationships between auditory and visual factors, based on people's sensory experiences. Although residential environments provide natural experimental conditions to observe these relationships, the complexity of measuring sensory perceptions and their subsequent interpretation constitutes a challenge. This study aims to identify the influence of socio-demographics and residential location characteristics on three latent variables: noise-Sensitivity, sound-Pleasantness, and visual-Liveability in a Latin American city. The methodology is replicable and relies on a digital survey that displays environments in 360-format video and uses sound immersion techniques; it was applied to a sample of household heads in Quito, Ecuador. Based on an efficient experimental design, we selected different residential environments according to acoustic-visual attributes and the proximity to residential, commercial, and recreational land uses. Structural Equation Models (SEM) were estimated using mediating variables. Our results reveal the influence of noise-Sensitivity on sound-Pleasantness and, indirectly, on visual-Liveability. Further analysis shows that the impact of sound and visual perception changes with different socio-demographics and residential location characteristics.

User expectations and perceptions towards new public transport infrastructure: evaluating a cable car in Bogotá.

Cable cars are a viable alternative to improve citizens' accessibility in zones with limitations on urban public transport supply due to the topography. In Latin America, such systems have recently been implemented in zones with high levels of poverty and vulnerability. Although the social implications of their implementation are relevant, individual expectations of these systems and how current changes in travel conditions and quality of life are perceived have not been widely reported in the literature. This paper aims to evaluate users' expectations and perceptions of a new cable car in the southern periphery of Bogotá (Colombia). We conducted a panel survey before (n = 341) and after (n = 301) the cable car started operations to evaluate the ranking of preferences toward a set of possible benefits of the project. We estimated discrete choice models to analyze the statistical differences between the expectations and perceptions before and after changes. Results suggest that travel time reductions, comfort improvements, and in-vehicle security are the benefits most valued by the users. Even though the project meets expectations of these aspects, it seems to fall short in expectations of reductions of pollution. Individuals' experience with the cable car shapes their perceptions of the system. We found that perceptions differ between those who have used the service at least once and those who never did. Policy implications derived from this study might be of interest to decision-makers seeking to guarantee the public acceptability of urban projects.

Commuter's personal exposure to air pollutants after the implementation of a cable car for public transport: Results of the natural experiment TrUST.

Commuters in urban settlements are frequently exposed to high concentrations of air pollutants due to their proximity to mobile sources, making exposure to traffic-related air pollutants an important public health issue. Recent trends in urban transport towards zero- and low-tailpipe emission alternatives will likely result in decreased exposure to air pollutants. The TrUST (Urban transformations and health) study offers a unique opportunity to understand the impacts of a new cable car (TransMiCable) in underserved communities within Bogotá, Colombia. The aims of this study are to assess the personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), equivalent Black Carbon (eBC), and Carbon Monoxide (CO) in transport micro-environments and to estimate the inhaled dose per trip during mandatory multimodal trips before and after the implementation of the TransMiCable. We collected personal exposure data for Bus-Rapid-Transit (BRT) feeder buses, regular buses, informal transport, pedestrians, and TransMiCable. TransMiCable showed lower exposure concentration compared to BRT feeder and regular buses (PM2.5: 23.6 vs. 87.0 µg m-3 (P ≤ 0.001) and eBC: 5.2 vs. 28.2 µg m-3 (P ≤ 0.001), respectively). The mean concentration of PM2.5 and eBC inside the TransMiCable cabins were 62 % and 82 % lower than the mean concentrations in buses. Furthermore, using a Monte Carlo simulation model, we found that including the TransMiCable as a feeder is related to a 54.4 µg/trip reduction in PM2.5 inhaled dose and 35.8 µg/trip in eBC per trip. Those changes represent a 27 % and 34 % reduction in an inhaled dose per trip, respectively. Our results show that PM2.5, eBC, and CO inhaled dose for TransMiCable users is reduced due to lower exposure concentration inside its cabins and shorter travel time. The implementation of a cable car in Bogotá is likely to reduce air pollution exposure in transport micro-environments used by vulnerable populations living in semi-informal settlements.

The path towards herd immunity: Predicting COVID-19 vaccination uptake through results from a stated choice study across six continents.

Despite unprecedented progress in developing COVID-19 vaccines, global vaccination levels needed to reach herd immunity remain a distant target, while new variants keep emerging. Obtaining near universal vaccine uptake relies on understanding and addressing vaccine resistance. Simple questions about vaccine acceptance however ignore that the vaccines being offered vary across countries and even population subgroups, and differ in terms of efficacy and side effects. By using advanced discrete choice models estimated on stated choice data collected in 18 countries/territories across six continents, we show a substantial influence of vaccine characteristics. Uptake increases if more efficacious vaccines (95% vs 60%) are offered (mean across study areas = 3.9%, range of 0.6%-8.1%) or if vaccines offer at least 12 months of protection (mean across study areas = 2.4%, range of 0.2%-5.8%), while an increase in severe side effects (from 0.001% to 0.01%) leads to reduced uptake (mean = -1.3%, range of -0.2% to -3.9%). Additionally, a large share of individuals (mean = 55.2%, range of 28%-75.8%) would delay vaccination by 3 months to obtain a more efficacious (95% vs 60%) vaccine, where this increases further if the low efficacy vaccine has a higher risk (0.01% instead of 0.001%) of severe side effects (mean = 65.9%, range of 41.4%-86.5%). Our work highlights that careful consideration of which vaccines to offer can be beneficial. In support of this, we provide an interactive tool to predict uptake in a country as a function of the vaccines being deployed, and also depending on the levels of infectiousness and severity of circulating variants of COVID-19.

Urban Transformations and Health: Methods for TrUST-a Natural Experiment Evaluating the Impacts of a Mass Transit Cable Car in Bogotá, Colombia.

Background: Cable cars provide urban mobility benefits for vulnerable populations. However, no evaluation has assessed cable cars' impact from a health perspective. TransMiCable in Bogotá, Colombia, provides a unique opportunity to (1) assess the effects of its implementation on the environmental and social determinants of health (microenvironment pollution, transport accessibility, physical environment, employment, social capital, and leisure time), physical activity, and health outcomes (health-related quality of life, respiratory diseases, and homicides); and (2) use citizen science methods to identify, prioritize, and communicate the most salient negative and positive features impacting health and quality of life in TransMiCable's area, as well as facilitate a consensus and advocacy-building change process among community members, policymakers, and academic researchers. Methods: TrUST (In Spanish: Transformaciones Urbanas y Salud: el caso de TransMiCable en Bogotá) is a quasi-experimental study using a mixed-methods approach. The intervention group includes adults from Ciudad Bolívar, the area of influence of TransMiCable. The control group includes adults from San Cristóbal, an area of future expansion for TransMiCable. A conceptual framework was developed through group-model building. Outcomes related to environmental and social determinants of health as well as health outcomes are assessed using questionnaires (health outcomes, physical activity, and perceptions), secondary data (crime and respiratory outcomes) use of portable devices (air pollution exposure and accelerometry), mobility tracking apps (for transport trajectories), and direct observation (parks). The Stanford Healthy Neighborhood Discovery Tool is being used to capture residents' perceptions of their physical and social environments as part of the citizen science component of the investigation. Discussion: TrUST is innovative in its use of a mixed-methods, and interdisciplinary research approach, and in its systematic engagement of citizens and policymakers throughout the design and evaluation process. This study will help to understand better how to maximize health benefits and minimize unintended negative consequences of TransMiCable.

Mobile phone use while driving: a hybrid modeling approach.

The analysis of the effects that mobile phone use produces while driving is a topic of great interest for the scientific community. There is consensus that using a mobile phone while driving increases the risk of exposure to traffic accidents. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the drivers' behavior when they decide whether or not to use a mobile phone while driving. For that, a hybrid modeling approach that integrates a choice model with the latent variable "risk perception" was used. It was found that workers and individuals with the highest education level are more prone to use a mobile phone while driving than others. Also, "risk perception" is higher among individuals who have been previously fined and people who have been in an accident or almost been in an accident. It was also found that the tendency to use mobile phones while driving increases when the traffic speed reduces, but it decreases when the fine increases. Even though the urgency of the phone call is the most important explanatory variable in the choice model, the cost of the fine is an important attribute in order to control mobile phone use while driving.