Mechanisms of weight loss-induced remission in people with prediabetes: a post-hoc analysis of the randomised, controlled, multicentre Prediabetes Lifestyle Intervention Study (PLIS).

BACKGROUND: Remission of type 2 diabetes can occur as a result of weight loss and is characterised by liver fat and pancreas fat reduction and recovered insulin secretion. In this analysis, we aimed to investigate the mechanisms of weight loss- induced remission in people with prediabetes. METHODS: In this prespecified post-hoc analysis, weight loss-induced resolution of prediabetes in the randomised, controlled, multicentre Prediabetes Lifestyle Intervention Study (PLIS) was assessed, and the results were validated against participants from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study. For PLIS, between March 1, 2012, and Aug 31, 2016, participants were recruited from eight clinical study centres (including seven university hospitals) in Germany and randomly assigned to receive either a control intervention, a standard lifestyle intervention (ie, DPP-based intervention), or an intensified lifestyle intervention for 12 months. For DPP, participants were recruited from 23 clinical study centres in the USA between July 31, 1996, and May 18, 1999, and randomly assigned to receive either a standard lifestyle intervention, metformin, or placebo. In both PLIS and DPP, only participants who were randomly assigned to receive lifestyle intervention or placebo and who lost at least 5% of their bodyweight were included in this analysis. Responders were defined as people who returned to normal fasting plasma glucose (FPG; <5·6 mmol/L), normal glucose tolerance (<7·8 mmol/L), and HbA1c less than 39 mmol/mol after 12 months of lifestyle intervention or placebo or control intervention. Non-responders were defined as people who had FPG, 2 h glucose, or HbA1c more than these thresholds. The main outcomes for this analysis were insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion, visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and intrahepatic lipid content (IHL) and were evaluated via linear mixed models. FINDINGS: Of 1160 participants recruited to PLIS, 298 (25·7%) had weight loss of 5% or more of their bodyweight at baseline. 128 (43%) of 298 participants were responders and 170 (57%) were non-responders. Responders were younger than non-responders (mean age 55·6 years [SD 9·9] vs 60·4 years [8·6]; p<0·0001). The DPP validation cohort included 683 participants who lost at least 5% of their bodyweight at baseline. Of these, 132 (19%) were responders and 551 (81%) were non-responders. In PLIS, BMI reduction was similar between responders and non-responders (responders mean at baseline 32·4 kg/m2 [SD 5·6] to mean at 12 months 29·0 kg/m2 [4·9] vs non-responders 32·1 kg/m2 [5·9] to 29·2 kg/m2 [5·4]; p=0·86). However, whole-body insulin sensitivity increased more in responders than in non-responders (mean at baseline 291 mL/[min × m2], SD 60 to mean at 12 months 378 mL/[min × m2], 56 vs 278 mL/[min × m2], 62, to 323 mL/[min × m2], 66; p<0·0001), whereas insulin secretion did not differ within groups over time or between groups (responders mean at baseline 175 pmol/mmol [SD 64] to mean at 12 months 163·7 pmol/mmol [60·6] vs non-responders 158·0 pmol/mmol [55·6] to 154·1 pmol/mmol [56·2]; p=0·46). IHL decreased in both groups, without a difference between groups (responders mean at baseline 10·1% [SD 8·7] to mean at 12 months 3·5% [3·9] vs non-responders 10·3% [8·1] to 4·2% [4·2]; p=0·34); however, VAT decreased more in responders than in non-responders (mean at baseline 6·2 L [SD 2·9] to mean at 12 months 4·1 L [2·3] vs 5·7 L [2·3] to 4·5 L [2·2]; p=0·0003). Responders had a 73% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes than non-responders in the 2 years after the intervention ended. INTERPRETATION: By contrast to remission of type 2 diabetes, resolution of prediabetes was characterised by an improvement in insulin sensitivity and reduced VAT. Because return to normal glucose regulation (NGR) prevents development of type 2 diabetes, we propose the concept of remission of prediabetes in analogy to type 2 diabetes. We suggest that remission of prediabetes should be the primary therapeutic aim in individuals with prediabetes. FUNDING: German Federal Ministry for Education and Research via the German Center for Diabetes Research; the Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts Baden-Württemberg; the Helmholtz Association and Helmholtz Munich; the Cluster of Excellence Controlling Microbes to Fight Infections; and the German Research Foundation.

Increase in the Number of Pediatric New-Onset Diabetes and Diabetic Ketoacidosis Cases During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: Infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces a proinflammatory state that causes hyperglycemia and may precipitate diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in patients with known or new-onset diabetes. We examined the trends in new-onset diabetes and DKA prior to and following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This single-center retrospective observational study included pediatric patients (aged 0 to <18 years) hospitalized with new-onset type 1 diabetes or type 2 diabetes (T2D) before (March 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020) and after (March 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020) the pandemic onset. Demographic, anthropometrics, laboratory and clinical data, and outcomes were obtained. RESULTS: Among 615 children admitted with new-onset diabetes during the entire study period, 401 were admitted before the pandemic onset, and 214 were admitted after the pandemic onset. Children admitted with new-onset diabetes in the postpandemic period were significantly more likely to present with DKA (odds ratio, 1.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-2.52) than in the prepandemic phase. Children with DKA after the pandemic onset had higher lengths of hospitalization and were significantly more likely to experience severe DKA (odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.52). A higher proportion of children with DKA admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit required oxygen support after the pandemic onset than before the pandemic onset (8.85% vs 1.92%). Most cases of T2D with DKA occurred following the onset of the pandemic (62.5%). CONCLUSION: A significant increase in T2D cases occurred following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic with a greater risk of DKA and severe ketoacidosis. Racial disparity was evident with a higher proportion of Black and American Indian children presenting with ketoacidosis following the pandemic onset.

Bayesian multiple membership multiple classification logistic regression model on student performance with random effects in university instructors and majors.

Educational success measured by retention leading to graduation is an essential component of any academic institution. As such, identifying the factors that contribute significantly to success and addressing those factors that result in poor performances are important exercises. By success, we mean obtaining a semester GPA of 3.0 or better and a GPA of 2.0 or better. We identified these factors and related challenges through analytical models based on student performance. A large dataset obtained from a large state university over three consecutive semesters was utilized. At each semester, GPAs were nested within students and students were taking classes from multiple instructors and pursuing a specific major. Thus, we used multiple membership multiple classification (MMMC) Bayesian logistic regression models with random effects for instructors and majors to model success. The complexity of the analysis due to multiple membership modeling and a large number of random effects necessitated the use of Bayesian analysis. These Bayesian models identified factors affecting academic performance of college students while accounting for university instructors and majors as random effects. In particular, the models adjust for residency status, academic level, number of classes, student athletes, and disability residence services. Instructors and majors accounted for a significant proportion of students' academic success, and served as key indicators of retention and graduation rates. They are embedded within the processes of university recruitment and competition for the best students.