Recent malaria does not substantially impact COVID-19 antibody response or rates of symptomatic illness in communities with high malaria and COVID-19 transmission in Mali, West Africa.

Malaria has been hypothesized as a factor that may have reduced the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. To evaluate the effect of recent malaria on COVID-19 we assessed a subgroup of individuals participating in a longitudinal cohort COVID-19 serosurvey that were also undergoing intensive malaria monitoring as part of antimalarial vaccine trials during the 2020 transmission season in Mali. These communities experienced a high incidence of primarily asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 during 2020 and 2021. In 1314 individuals, 711 were parasitemic during the 2020 malaria transmission season; 442 were symptomatic with clinical malaria and 269 had asymptomatic infection. Presence of parasitemia was not associated with new COVID-19 seroconversion (29.7% (211/711) vs. 30.0% (181/603), p=0.9038) or with rates of reported symptomatic seroconversion during the malaria transmission season. In the subsequent dry season, prior parasitemia was not associated with new COVID-19 seroconversion (30.2% (133/441) vs. 31.2% (108/346), p=0.7499), with symptomatic seroconversion, or with reversion from seropositive to seronegative (prior parasitemia: 36.2% (64/177) vs. no parasitemia: 30.1% (37/119), p=0.3842). After excluding participants with asymptomatic infection, clinical malaria was also not associated with COVID-19 serostatus or symptomatic seroconversion when compared to participants with no parasitemia during the monitoring period. In communities with intense seasonal malaria and a high incidence of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19, we did not demonstrate a relationship between recent malaria and subsequent response to COVID-19. Lifetime exposure, rather than recent infection, may be responsible for any effect of malaria on COVID-19 severity.

Rapidly Increasing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Seroprevalence and Limited Clinical Disease in 3 Malian Communities: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The extent of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposure and transmission in Mali and the surrounding region is not well understood. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in 3 communities and understand factors associated with infection. METHODS: Between July 2020 and January 2021, we collected blood samples and demographic, social, medical, and self-reported symptoms information from residents aged 6 months and older over 2 study visits. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured using a highly specific 2-antigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay optimized for use in Mali. We calculated cumulative adjusted seroprevalence for each community and evaluated factors associated with serostatus at each visit by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 94.8% (2533/2672) of participants completed both study visits. A total of 31.3% (837/2672) were aged <10 years, 27.6% (737/2672) were aged 10-17 years, and 41.1% (1098/2572) were aged ≥18 years. The cumulative SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate was 58.5% (95% confidence interval, 47.5-69.4). This varied between sites and was 73.4% in the urban community of Sotuba, 53.2% in the rural town of Bancoumana, and 37.1% in the rural village of Donéguébougou. Study site and increased age were associated with serostatus at both study visits. There was minimal difference in reported symptoms based on serostatus. CONCLUSIONS: The true extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Mali is greater than previously reported and may now approach hypothetical "herd immunity" in urban areas. The epidemiology of the pandemic in the region may be primarily subclinical and within background illness rates.

Rapidly increasing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and limited clinical disease in three Malian communities: a prospective cohort study.

Background: The extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure and transmission in Mali and the surrounding region is not well understood, although infection has been confirmed in nearly 14,000 symptomatic individuals and their contacts since the first case in March 2020. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in three Malian communities, and understand factors associated with infection. Methods: Between 27 July 2020 and 29 January 2021, we collected blood samples along with demographic, social, medical and self-reported symptoms information from residents aged 6 months and older in three study communities at two study visits. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured using a highly specific two-antigen ELISA optimized for use in Mali. We calculated cumulative adjusted seroprevalence for each site and evaluated factors associated with serostatus at each visit by univariate and multivariate analysis. Findings: Overall, 94.8% (2533/2672) of participants completed both study visits. A total of 50.3% (1343/2672) of participants were male, and 31.3% (837/2672) were aged <10 years, 27.6% (737/2672) were aged 10-17 years, and 41.1% (1098/2572) were aged ≥18 years. The cumulative SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate was 58.5% (95% CI: 47.5 to 69.4). This varied between sites and was 73.4% (95% CI: 59.2 to 87.5) in the urban community of Sotuba, 53.2% (95% CI: 42.8 to 63.6) in the rural town of Bancoumana, and 37.1% (95% CI: 29.6 to 44.5) in the rural village of Donéguébougou. This equates to an infection rate of approximately 1% of the population every three days in the study communities between visits. Increased age and study site were associated with serostatus at both study visits. There was minimal difference in reported symptoms based on serostatus. Interpretation: The true extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Mali is greater than previously reported and now approaches hypothetical herd immunity in urban areas. The epidemiology of the pandemic in the region may be primarily subclinical and within background illness rates. In this setting, ongoing surveillance and augmentation of diagnostics to characterize locally circulating variants will be critical to implement effective mitigation strategies like vaccines. Funding: This project was funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and National Cancer Institute.

"Spatial heterogeneity of environmental risk in randomized prevention trials: consequences and modeling".

BACKGROUND: In the context of environmentally influenced communicable diseases, proximity to environmental sources results in spatial heterogeneity of risk, which is sometimes difficult to measure in the field. Most prevention trials use randomization to achieve comparability between groups, thus failing to account for heterogeneity. This study aimed to determine under what conditions spatial heterogeneity biases the results of randomized prevention trials, and to compare different approaches to modeling this heterogeneity. METHODS: Using the example of a malaria prevention trial, simulations were performed to quantify the impact of spatial heterogeneity and to compare different models. Simulated scenarios combined variation in baseline risk, a continuous protective factor (age), a non-related factor (sex), and a binary protective factor (preventive treatment). Simulated spatial heterogeneity scenarios combined variation in breeding site density and effect, location, and population density. The performances of the following five statistical models were assessed: a non-spatial Cox Proportional Hazard (Cox-PH) model and four models accounting for spatial heterogeneity-i.e., a Data-Generating Model, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and two Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) models, one modeling survival time and the other the number of events. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the SPDE models with an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation algorithm. For each factor (age, sex, treatment), model performances were assessed by quantifying parameter estimation biases, mean square errors, confidence interval coverage rates (CRs), and significance rates. The four models were applied to data from a malaria transmission blocking vaccine candidate. RESULTS: The level of baseline risk did not affect our estimates. However, with a high breeding site density and a strong breeding site effect, the Cox-PH and GAM models underestimated the age and treatment effects (but not the sex effect) with a low CR. When population density was low, the Cox-SPDE model slightly overestimated the effect of related factors (age, treatment). The two SPDE models corrected the impact of spatial heterogeneity, thus providing the best estimates. CONCLUSION: Our results show that when spatial heterogeneity is important but not measured, randomization alone cannot achieve comparability between groups. In such cases, prevention trials should model spatial heterogeneity with an adapted method. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The dataset used for the application example was extracted from Vaccine Trial #NCT02334462 ( ClinicalTrials.gov registry).

Malaria Infection and Gametocyte Carriage Rates in Preparation for Transmission Blocking Vaccine Trials in Bancoumana, Mali.

The epidemiological characterization of transmission reservoirs is a critical step in preparation for interventional trials for malaria elimination/eradication. Using cluster sampling and households/compounds as units of sampling, we recruited and followed monthly, from June 2011 to June 2012, 250 volunteers 3 months to 50 years of age in Bancoumana, Mali. In July 2012, only participants 5-35 years of age (N = 121) were reenrolled and followed for an additional year. Malaria infection prevalence was highest in October in both 2011 (21.5%, 50/233) and 2012 (38.2%, 26/68). During both years, malaria infection prevalence was highest in children 5-14 years of age (P = 0.01 and P = 0.02, respectively). The gametocyte carriage prevalence was highest in November 2011 (7.6%, 17/225) and in October 2012 (16.2%, 11/68). Gametocyte carriage rates by age did not significantly differ in 2011 and 2012. In Bancoumana, the asexual and sexual parasite carriage rates are relatively high and highly seasonal. Seasonal variation and age differences in parasite and gametocyte carriage provide essential knowledge for the design of transmission blocking assay and vaccine studies in the field.