Text mining analysis to understand the impact of online news on public health response: case of syphilis epidemic in Brazil.

Background: To effectively combat the rising incidence of syphilis, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) created a National Rapid Response to Syphilis with actions aimed at bolstering epidemiological surveillance of acquired, congenital syphilis, and syphilis during pregnancy complemented with communication activities to raise population awareness and to increase uptake of testing that targeted mass media outlets from November 2018 to March 2019 throughout Brazil, and mainly areas with high rates of syphilis. This study analyzes the volume and quality of online news content on syphilis in Brazil between 2015 and 2019 and examines its effect on testing. Methods: The collection and processing of online news were automated by means of a proprietary digital health ecosystem established for the study. We applied text data mining techniques to online news to extract patterns from categories of text. The presence and combination of such categories in collected texts determined the quality of news that were analyzed to classify them as high-, medium-and low-quality news. We examined the correlation between the quality of news and the volume of syphilis testing using Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient. Results: 1,049 web pages were collected using a Google Search API, of which 630 were categorized as earned media. We observed a steady increase in the number of news on syphilis in 2015 (n = 18), 2016 (n = 26), and 2017 (n = 42), with a substantial rise in the number of news in 2018 (n = 107) and 2019 (n = 437), although the relative proportion of high-quality news remained consistently high (77.6 and 70.5% respectively) and in line with similar years. We found a correlation between news quality and syphilis testing performed in primary health care with an increase of 82.32, 78.13, and 73.20%, respectively, in the three types of treponemal tests used to confirm an infection. Conclusion: Effective communication strategies that lead to dissemination of high quality of information are important to increase uptake of public health policy actions.

Sentiment Analysis in Understanding the Potential of Online News in the Public Health Crisis Response.

This study analyzes online news disseminated throughout the pre-, during-, and post-intervention periods of the "Syphilis No!" Project, which was developed in Brazil between November 2018 and March 2019. We investigated the influence of sentiment aspects of news to explore their possible relationships with syphilis testing data in response to the syphilis epidemic in Brazil. A dictionary-based technique (VADER) was chosen to perform sentiment analysis considering the Brazilian Portuguese language. Finally, the data collected were used in statistical tests to obtain other indicators, such as correlation and distribution analysis. Of the 627 news items, 198 (31.58%) were classified as a sentiment of security (TP2; stands for the news type 2), whereas 429 (68.42%) were classified as sentiments that instilled vulnerability (TP3; stands for the news type 3). The correlation between the number of syphilis tests and the number of news types TP2 and TP3 was verified from (i) 2015 to 2017 and (ii) 2018 to 2019. For the TP2 type news, in all periods, the p-values were greater than 0.05, thus generating inconclusive results. From 2015 to 2017, there was an ρ = 0.33 correlation between TP3 news and testing data (p-value = 0.04); the years 2018 and 2019 presented a ρ = 0.67 correlation between TP3 news and the number of syphilis tests performed per month, with p-value = 0.0003. In addition, Granger's test was performed between TP3 news and syphilis testing, which resulted in a p-value = 0.002, thus indicating the existence of Granger causality between these time series. By applying natural language processing to sentiment and informational content analysis of public health campaigns, it was found that the most substantial increase in testing was strongly related to attitude-inducing content (TP3).

Use of Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Understanding the Course of the Congenital Syphilis Epidemic in Brazil.

Background: To fight against the rising incidence of syphilis, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) launched the "Syphilis No!" Project (SNP), with specific resources funded by a parliamentary amendment. Then, in 2018, a national rapid response started to be implemented on the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS, Sistema Único de Saúde) in two strategic lines (1) to reinforce SUS's universal actions and (2) to implement specific ones to 100 municipalities chosen by the MoH as priorities for syphilis congenital response. In 2015, such localities represented 6895% of congenital syphilis cases in Brazil. In this context, SNP has implemented actions to strengthen epidemiological surveillance of acquired syphilis and congenital syphilis by instituting an integrated and collaborative response through health services networks and reinforcing interstate relations. Methods: A quasi-experimental study using time series analysis was conducted to assess immediate impacts and changes to the trend in national congenital syphilis before and after the project, from September 2016 to December 2019. Data were assessed considering rates of congenital syphilis per 1,000 live births in all priority municipalities (n=100) covered by the project and in non-priority municipalities (n=5,470) from all five macro-regions of Brazil. Findings: Priority municipalities showed a greater reduction (change in trend) in comparison to non-priority. The linear regression model revealed trend changes after the intervention, with both groups of municipalities showing a drop in the average monthly number of cases per 1,000 live births, with a reduction of -0·21 (CI 95% -0·33 to -0·09; p=0·0011) in priority municipalities and of -0·10 (CI 95% -0.19 to -0.02; p=0·0216) in non-priority municipalities. Interpretation: The study using ITS provides important evidence on the direction, timing, and magnitude of the effects of interventions introduced as part of the SNP on congenital syphilis in Brazil. Our results suggest that the Syphilis No! Project influenced the trends of congenital syphilis in Brazil from 2018, with higher reductions achieved in the priority municipalities. Funding: The research is funded by a grant to the Syphilis No! Project from Brazilian Ministry of Health (Project Number: 54/2017). The funders had no role in study design, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Transition to universal primary health care coverage in Brazil: analysis of uptake and expansion patterns of Brazil’s Family Health Strategy (1998-2012)

Family Health Strategy, the primary health care program in Brazil, has been scaled up throughout the country, but its expansion has been heterogeneous across municipalities. We investigate if there are unique municipal characteristics that can explain the timing of uptake and the pattern of expansion of the Family Health Strategy from years 1998 to 2012. We categorized municipalities in six groups based on the relative speed of the Family Health Strategy uptake and the pattern of Family Health Strategy coverage expansion. We assembled data for 11 indicators for years 2000 and 2010, for 5,507 municipalities, and assessed differences in indicators across the six groups, which we mapped to examine spatial heterogeneities. Important factors differentiating early and late adopters of the Family Health Strategy were supply of doctors and population density. Sustained coverage expansion was related mainly to population size, marginal benefits of the program and doctors’ supply. The uptake was widespread nationwide with no distinct patterns among regions, but highly heterogeneous at the state and municipal level. The Brazilian experience of expanding primary health care offers three lessons in relation to factors influencing diffusion of primary health care. First, the funding mechanism is critical for program implementation, and must be accompanied by ways to support the supply of primary care physicians in low density areas. Second, in more developed and bigger areas the main challenge is lack of incentives to pursue universal coverage, especially due to the availability of private insurance. Third, population size is a crucial element to guarantee coverage sustainability over time.

Punt Politics as Failure of Health System Stewardship: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic Response in Brazil and Mexico.

We present a new concept, Punt Politics, and apply it to the COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in two epicenters of the pandemic: Mexico and Brazil. Punt Politics refers to national leaders in federal systems deferring or deflecting responsibility for health systems decision-making to sub-national entities without evidence or coordination. The fragmentation of authority and overlapping functions in federal, decentralized political systems make them more susceptible to coordination problems than centralized, unitary systems. We apply the concept to pandemics, which require national health system stewardship, using sub-national NPI data that we developed and curated through the Observatory for the Containment of COVID-19 in the Americas to illustrate Punt Politics in Mexico and Brazil. Both countries suffer from protracted, high levels of COVID-19 mortality and inadequate pandemic responses, including little testing and disregard for scientific evidence. We illustrate how populist leadership drove Punt Politics and how partisan politics contributed to disabling an evidence-based response in Mexico and Brazil. These cases illustrate the combination of decentralization and populist leadership that is most conducive to punting responsibility. We discuss how Punt Politics reduces health system functionality, providing lessons for other countries and future pandemic responses, including vaccine rollout.

Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis and survival of five cancers in Chile from 2020 to 2030: a simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has strained health system capacity worldwide due to a surge of hospital admissions, while mitigation measures have simultaneously reduced patients' access to health care, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of other diseases such as cancer. We estimated the impact of delayed diagnosis on cancer outcomes in Chile using a novel modelling approach to inform policies and planning to mitigate the forthcoming cancer-related health impacts of the pandemic in Chile. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of five cancers in Chile (breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach) for which reliable data were available, which simulates cancer incidence and progression in a nationally representative virtual population, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities. We calibrated the model to empirical data on monthly detected cases, as well as stage at diagnosis and 5-year net survival. We accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection by month during the pandemic, and projected diagnosed cancer cases and outcomes of stage at diagnosis and survival up to 2030. For comparison, we simulated a no COVID-19 scenario in which the impacts of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection were removed. FINDINGS: Our modelling showed a sharp decrease in the number of diagnosed cancer cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a large projected short-term increase in future diagnosed cases. Due to the projected backlog in diagnosis, we estimated that in 2021 there will be an extra 3198 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1356-5017) diagnosed among the five modelled cancers, an increase of nearly 14% compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, falling to a projected 10% increase in 2022 with 2674 extra cases (1318-4032) diagnosed. As a result of delayed diagnosis, we found a worse stage distribution for detected cancers in 2020-22, which is estimated to lead to 3542 excess cancer deaths (95% UI 2236-4816) in 2022-30, compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, among the five modelled cancers, most of which (3299 deaths, 2151-4431) are projected to occur before 2025. INTERPRETATION: In addition to a large projected surge in diagnosed cancer cases, we found that delays in diagnosis will result in worse cancer stage at presentation, leading to worse survival outcomes. These findings can help to inform surge capacity planning and highlight the importance of ensuring appropriate health system capacity levels to detect and care for the increased cancer cases in the coming years, while maintaining the timeliness and quality of cancer care. Potential delays in treatment and adverse impacts on quality of care, which were not considered in this model, are likely to contribute to even more excess deaths from cancer than projected. FUNDING: Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

It takes two to dance the VBHC tango: A multiple case study of the adoption of value-based strategies in Sweden and Brazil.

Although Value-Based Health Care (VBHC) is widely debated and cited, there are few empirical studies focused on how its concepts are understood and applied in real-world contexts. This comparative case study of two prominent adopters in Brazil and Sweden, situated at either end of the spectrum in terms of contextual prerequisites, provides insights into the complex interactions involved in the adoption of value-based strategies. We found that the adoption of VBHC emphasized either health outcomes or costs - not both as suggested by the value equation. This may be linked to broader health system and societal contexts. Implementation can generate tensions with traditional business models, suggesting that providers should first analyze how these strategies align with their internal context. Adoption by a single provider organization is challenging, if not impossible. An effective VBHC transformation seems to require a systematic and systemic approach where all stakeholders need to clearly define the purpose and the scope of the transformation, and together steer their actions and decisions accordingly.

Correction: Transition to universal primary health care coverage in Brazil: Analysis of uptake and expansion patterns of Brazil's Family Health Strategy (1998-2012).

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201723.].

Effect of socioeconomic inequalities and vulnerabilities on health-system preparedness and response to COVID-19 in Brazil: a comprehensive analysis.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 spread rapidly in Brazil despite the country's well established health and social protection systems. Understanding the relationships between health-system preparedness, responses to COVID-19, and the pattern of spread of the epidemic is particularly important in a country marked by wide inequalities in socioeconomic characteristics (eg, housing and employment status) and other health risks (age structure and burden of chronic disease). METHODS: From several publicly available sources in Brazil, we obtained data on health risk factors for severe COVID-19 (proportion of the population with chronic disease and proportion aged ≥60 years), socioeconomic vulnerability (proportions of the population with housing vulnerability or without formal work), health-system capacity (numbers of intensive care unit beds and physicians), coverage of health and social assistance, deaths from COVID-19, and state-level responses of government in terms of physical distancing policies. We also obtained data on the proportion of the population staying at home, based on locational data, as a measure of physical distancing adherence. We developed a socioeconomic vulnerability index (SVI) based on household characteristics and the Human Development Index. Data were analysed at the state and municipal levels. Descriptive statistics and correlations between state-level indicators were used to characterise the relationship between the availability of health-care resources and socioeconomic characteristics and the spread of the epidemic and the response of governments and populations in terms of new investments, legislation, and physical distancing. We used linear regressions on a municipality-by-month dataset from February to October, 2020, to characterise the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and response to the epidemic across municipalities. FINDINGS: The initial spread of COVID-19 was mostly affected by patterns of socioeconomic vulnerability as measured by the SVI rather than population age structure and prevalence of health risk factors. The states with a high (greater than median) SVI were able to expand hospital capacity, to enact stringent COVID-19-related legislation, and to increase physical distancing adherence in the population, although not sufficiently to prevent higher COVID-19 mortality during the initial phase of the epidemic compared with states with a low SVI. Death rates accelerated until June, 2020, particularly in municipalities with the highest socioeconomic vulnerability. Throughout the following months, however, differences in policy response converged in municipalities with lower and higher SVIs, while physical distancing remained relatively higher and death rates became relatively lower in the municipalities with the highest SVIs compared with those with lower SVIs. INTERPRETATION: In Brazil, existing socioeconomic inequalities, rather than age, health status, and other risk factors for COVID-19, have affected the course of the epidemic, with a disproportionate adverse burden on states and municipalities with high socioeconomic vulnerability. Local government responses and population behaviour in the states and municipalities with higher socioeconomic vulnerability have helped to contain the effects of the epidemic. Targeted policies and actions are needed to protect those with the greatest socioeconomic vulnerability. This experience could be relevant in other low-income and middle-income countries where socioeconomic vulnerability varies greatly. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Evaluation of sex differences in dietary behaviours and their relationship with cardiovascular risk factors: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys in seven low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading causes of death for men and women in low-and-middle income countries (LMIC). The nutrition transition to diets high in salt, fat and sugar and low in fruit and vegetables, in parallel with increasing prevalence of diet-related CVD risk factors in LMICs, identifies the need for urgent action to reverse this trend. To aid identification of the most effective interventions it is crucial to understand whether there are sex differences in dietary behaviours related to CVD risk. METHODS: From a dataset of 46 nationally representative surveys, we included data from seven countries that had recorded the same dietary behaviour measurements in adults; Bhutan, Eswatini, Georgia, Guyana, Kenya, Nepal and St Vincent and the Grenadines (2013-2017). Three dietary behaviours were investigated: positive salt use behaviour (SUB), meeting fruit and vegetable (F&V) recommendations and use of vegetable oil rather than animal fats in cooking. Generalized linear models were used to investigate the association between dietary behaviours and waist circumference (WC) and undiagnosed and diagnosed hypertension and diabetes. Interaction terms between sex and dietary behaviour were added to test for sex differences. RESULTS: Twenty-four thousand three hundred thirty-two participants were included. More females than males reported positive SUB (31.3 vs. 27.2% p-value < 0.001), yet less met F&V recommendations (13.2 vs. 14.8%, p-value< 0.05). The prevalence of reporting all three dietary behaviours in a positive manner was 2.7%, varying by country, but not sex. Poor SUB was associated with a higher prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension for females (13.1% vs. 9.9%, p-value = 0.04), and a higher prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes for males (2.4% vs. 1.5%, p-value = 0.02). Meeting F&V recommendations was associated with a higher prevalence of high WC (24.4% vs 22.6%, p-value = 0.01), but was not associated with undiagnosed or diagnosed hypertension or diabetes. CONCLUSION: Interventions to increase F&V intake and positive SUBs in the included countries are urgently needed. Dietary behaviours were not notably different between sexes. However, our findings were limited by the small proportion of the population reporting positive dietary behaviours, and further research is required to understand whether associations with CVD risk factors and interactions by sex would change as the prevalence of positive behaviours increases.

Burden of Mental, Neurological, Substance Use Disorders and Self-Harm in North America: A Comparative Epidemiology of Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of mental, neurological, substance use disorders and self-harm (MNSS) in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. METHOD: We extracted 2017 data from the Global Burden of Disease online database. Based on a previously developed framework to classify and aggregate the burden of specific disorders and symptoms, we reestimated the MNSS burden to include suicide, alcohol use, drug use, specific neurological, and painful somatic symptom disorders. We analyzed age-sex-specific patterns within and between countries. RESULTS: The MNSS burden is the largest of all disorder groupings. It is lowest in Mexico, intermediate in Canada, and highest in the United States. Exceptions are alcohol use, bipolar, conduct disorders, and epilepsy, which are highest in Mexico; and painful somatic syndromes and headaches, which are highest in Canada. The burden of drug use disorders in the United States is twice the burden in Canada, and 7 times the burden in Mexico. MNSS become the most burdensome of all disorder groups by age 10, staying at the top until age 60, and show a distinct pattern across the lifetime. The top three MNSS disorders for men are a combination of substance use disorders and self-harm (United States), with the addition of painful somatic syndromes (Canada), and headaches (Mexico). For women, the top three are headaches and depression (all countries), drug use (United States), neurocognitive disorders (Mexico), and painful somatic syndromes (Canada). CONCLUSION: MNSS are the most burdensome disease grouping and should be prioritized for funding in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

Implications of multimorbidity patterns on health care utilisation and quality of life in middle-income countries: cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Past studies have demonstrated how single non-communicable diseases (NCDs) affect health care utilisation and quality of life (QoL), but not how different NCD combinations interact to affect these. Our study aims to investigate the prevalence of NCD dyad and triad combinations, and the implications of different NCD dyad combinations on health care utilisation and QoL. METHODS: Our study utilised cross-sectional data from the WHO SAGE study to examine the most prevalent NCD combinations in six large middle-income countries (MICs). Subjects were mostly aged 50 years and above, with a smaller proportion aged 18 to 49 years. Multivariable linear regression was applied to investigate which NCD dyads increased or decreased health care utilisation and QoL, compared with subjects with only one NCD. RESULTS: The study included 41 557 subjects. Most prevalent NCD combinations differed by subgroups, including age, gender, income, and residence (urban vs rural). Diabetes, stroke, and depression had the largest effect on increasing mean number of outpatient visits, increasing mean number of hospitalisation days, and decreasing mean QoL scores, respectively. Out of the 36 NCD dyads in our study, thirteen, four, and five dyad combinations were associated with higher or lower mean number of outpatient visits, mean number of hospitalisations, or mean QoL scores, respectively, compared with treating separate patients with one NCD each. Dyads of depression were associated with fewer mean outpatient visits, more hospitalisations, and lower mean QoL scores, compared to patients with one NCD. Dyads of hypertension and diabetes were also associated with a reduced mean number of outpatient visits. CONCLUSIONS: Certain NCD combinations increase or decrease health care utilisation and QoL substantially more than treating separate patients with one NCD each. Health systems should consider the needs of patients with different multimorbidity patterns to effectively respond to the demands on health care utilisation and to mitigate adverse effects on QoL.

Political priority and pathways to scale-up of childhood cancer care in five nations.

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing global attention to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their incorporation into universal health coverage (UHC), the factors that determine whether and how NCDs are prioritized in national health agendas and integrated into health systems remain poorly understood. Childhood cancer is a leading non-communicable cause of death in children aged 0-14 years worldwide. We investigated the political, social, and economic factors that influence health system priority-setting on childhood cancer care in a range of low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on in-depth qualitative case studies, we analyzed the determinants of priority-setting for childhood cancer care in El Salvador, Guatemala, Ghana, India, and the Philippines using a conceptual framework that considers four principal influences on political prioritization: political contexts, actor power, ideas, and issue characteristics. Data for the analysis derived from in-depth interviews (n = 68) with key informants involved in or impacted by childhood cancer policies and programs in participating countries, supplemented by published academic literature and available policy documents. Political priority for childhood cancer varies widely across the countries studied and is most influenced by political context and actor power dynamics. Ghana has placed relatively little national priority on childhood cancer, largely due to competing priorities and a lack of cohesion among stakeholders. In both El Salvador and Guatemala, actor power has played a central role in generating national priority for childhood cancer, where well-organized and -resourced civil society organizations have disrupted legacies of fragmented governance and financing to create priority for childhood cancer care. In India, the role of a uniquely empowered private actor was instrumental in creating political priority and establishing sustained channels of financing for childhood cancer care. In the Philippines, the childhood cancer community has capitalized on a window of opportunity to expand access and reduce disparities in childhood cancer care through the political prioritization of UHC and NCDs in current health system reforms. CONCLUSIONS: The importance of key health system actors in determining the relative political priority for childhood cancer in the countries studied points to actor power as a critical enabler of prioritization in other LMIC. Responsiveness to political contexts-in particular, rhetorical and policy priority placed on NCDs and UHC-will be crucial to efforts to place childhood cancer firmly on national health agendas. National governments must be convinced of the potential for foundational health system strengthening through attention to childhood cancer care, and the presence and capability of networked actors primed to amplify public sector investments and catalyze change on the ground.

Brazil's unified health system: the first 30 years and prospects for the future.

In 1988, the Brazilian Constitution defined health as a universal right and a state responsibility. Progress towards universal health coverage in Brazil has been achieved through a unified health system (Sistema Único de Saúde [SUS]), created in 1990. With successes and setbacks in the implementation of health programmes and the organisation of its health system, Brazil has achieved nearly universal access to health-care services for the population. The trajectory of the development and expansion of the SUS offers valuable lessons on how to scale universal health coverage in a highly unequal country with relatively low resources allocated to health-care services by the government compared with that in middle-income and high-income countries. Analysis of the past 30 years since the inception of the SUS shows that innovations extend beyond the development of new models of care and highlights the importance of establishing political, legal, organisational, and management-related structures, with clearly defined roles for both the federal and local governments in the governance, planning, financing, and provision of health-care services. The expansion of the SUS has allowed Brazil to rapidly address the changing health needs of the population, with dramatic upscaling of health service coverage in just three decades. However, despite its successes, analysis of future scenarios suggests the urgent need to address lingering geographical inequalities, insufficient funding, and suboptimal private sector-public sector collaboration. Fiscal policies implemented in 2016 ushered in austerity measures that, alongside the new environmental, educational, and health policies of the Brazilian government, could reverse the hard-earned achievements of the SUS and threaten its sustainability and ability to fulfil its constitutional mandate of providing health care for all.

Disease burden and government spending on mental, neurological, and substance use disorders, and self-harm: cross-sectional, ecological study of health system response in the Americas.

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting mental health are highly prevalent, can be disabling, and are associated with substantial premature mortality. Yet national health system responses are frequently under-resourced, inefficient, and ineffective, leading to an imbalance between disease burden and health expenditures. We estimated the disease burden in the Americas caused by disorders affecting mental health. This measure was adjusted to include mental, neurological, and behavioural disorders that are frequently not included in estimates of mental health burden. We propose a framework for assessing the imbalance between disease burden and health expenditures. METHODS: In this cross-sectional, ecological study, we extracted disaggregated disease burden data from the Global Health Data Exchange to produce country-level estimates for the proportion of total disease burden attributable to mental disorders, neurological disorders, substance use disorders, and self-harm (MNSS) in the Americas. We collated data from the WHO Assessment Instrument for Mental Health Systems and the WHO Mental Health Atlas on country-level mental health spending as a proportion of total government health expenditures, and of psychiatric hospital spending as a proportion of mental health expenditures. We used a metric capturing the imbalance between disease burden and mental health expenditures, and modelled the association between this imbalance and real (ie, adjusted for purchasing power parity) gross domestic product (GDP). FINDINGS: Data were collected from July 1, 2016, to March 1, 2017. MNSS comprised 19% of total disability-adjusted life-years in the Americas in 2015. Median spending on mental health was 2·4% (IQR 1·3-4·1) of government health spending, and median allocation to psychiatric hospitals was 80% (52-92). This spending represented an imbalance in the ratio between disease burden and efficiently allocated spending, ranging from 3:1 in Canada and the USA to 435:1 in Haiti, with a median of 32:1 (12-170). Mental health expenditure as a proportion of government health spending was positively associated with real GDP (ß=0·68 [95% CI 0·24-1·13], p=0·0036), while the proportion allocated to psychiatric hospitals (ß=-0·5 [-0·79 to -0·22], p=0·0012) and the imbalance in efficiently allocated spending (ß=-1·38 [-1·97 to -0·78], p=0·0001) were both inversely associated with real GDP. All estimated coefficients were significantly different from zero at the 0·005 level. INTERPRETATION: A striking imbalance exists between government spending on mental health and the related disease burden in the Americas, which disproportionately affects low-income countries and is likely to result in undertreatment, increased avoidable disability and mortality, decreased national economic output, and increased household-level health spending. FUNDING: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University.

Non-technical health care quality and health system responsiveness in middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: While there is increasing recognition that the non-technical aspects of health care quality - particularly the inter-personal dimensions of care - are important components of health system performance, evidence from population-based studies on these outcomes in low- and middle-income countries is sparse. This study assesses these non-technical aspects of care using two measures: health system responsiveness (HSR), which quantifies the degree to which the health system meets the expectations of the population, and non-technical health care quality (QoC), for which we 'filtered out' these expectations. Pooling data from six large middle-income countries, this study therefore aimed to determine how HSR and QoC vary between countries and by individuals' sociodemographic characteristics within countries. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data, collected between 2007 and 2010, from nationally representative household surveys of (primarily) adults aged 50 years and older in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. The outcome measure was a binary indicator for a 'bad' rating (HSR: "very bad" or "bad" on a five-point Likert scale; QoC: a worse rating of one's own visit than that of the character in an anchoring vignette) on at least one of seven dimensions for the most recent primary care visit. RESULTS: 23 749 adults who reported to have sought primary care during the preceding 12 months were includedin the analysis. The proportion of participants who gave a bad rating for their last primary care visit on at least one of seven dimensions varied from 4.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.8-6.7) in China to 33.1% (95% CI = 23.6-44.2) in South Africa for HSR, and from 17.0% (95% CI = 11.4-24.5) in Russia to 50.8% (95% CI = 46.0-55.6) in Ghana for QoC. There was a strong negative association between increasing household wealth and both bad HSR and QoC in India and South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) with good-quality health services ("effective UHC") will require efforts to improve HSR and QoC across the population in Ghana and South Africa. Additionally, a particular focus on raising HSR and QoC for the poorest population groups is needed in India and South Africa.

Transition to universal primary health care coverage in Brazil: Analysis of uptake and expansion patterns of Brazil's Family Health Strategy (1998-2012).

Family Health Strategy, the primary health care program in Brazil, has been scaled up throughout the country, but its expansion has been heterogeneous across municipalities. We investigate if there are unique municipal characteristics that can explain the timing of uptake and the pattern of expansion of the Family Health Strategy from years 1998 to 2012. We categorized municipalities in six groups based on the relative speed of the Family Health Strategy uptake and the pattern of Family Health Strategy coverage expansion. We assembled data for 11 indicators for years 2000 and 2010, for 5,507 municipalities, and assessed differences in indicators across the six groups, which we mapped to examine spatial heterogeneities. Important factors differentiating early and late adopters of the Family Health Strategy were supply of doctors and population density. Sustained coverage expansion was related mainly to population size, marginal benefits of the program and doctors' supply. The uptake was widespread nationwide with no distinct patterns among regions, but highly heterogeneous at the state and municipal level. The Brazilian experience of expanding primary health care offers three lessons in relation to factors influencing diffusion of primary health care. First, the funding mechanism is critical for program implementation, and must be accompanied by ways to support the supply of primary care physicians in low density areas. Second, in more developed and bigger areas the main challenge is lack of incentives to pursue universal coverage, especially due to the availability of private insurance. Third, population size is a crucial element to guarantee coverage sustainability over time.

The Brazilian health system at crossroads: progress, crisis and resilience.

The Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS)) has enabled substantial progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in Brazil. However, structural weakness, economic and political crises and austerity policies that have capped public expenditure growth are threatening its sustainability and outcomes. This paper analyses the Brazilian health system progress since 2000 and the current and potential effects of the coalescing economic and political crises and the subsequent austerity policies. We use literature review, policy analysis and secondary data from governmental sources in 2000-2017 to examine changes in political and economic context, health financing, health resources and healthcare service coverage in SUS. We find that, despite a favourable context, which enabled expansion of UHC from 2003 to 2014, structural problems persist in SUS, including gaps in organisation and governance, low public funding and suboptimal resource allocation. Consequently, large regional disparities exist in access to healthcare services and health outcomes, with poorer regions and lower socioeconomic population groups disadvantaged the most. These structural problems and disparities will likely worsen with the austerity measures introduced by the current government, and risk reversing the achievements of SUS in improving population health outcomes. The speed at which adverse effects of the current and political crises are manifested in the Brazilian health system underscores the importance of enhancing health system resilience to counteract external shocks (such as economic and political crises) and internal shocks (such as sector-specific austerity policies and rapid ageing leading to rise in disease burden) to protect hard-achieved progress towards UHC.

Brazil's Family Health Strategy: factors associated with programme uptake and coverage expansion over 15 years (1998-2012).

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is one of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving UHC will require strong health systems to promote and deliver equitable and integrated healthcare services through primary healthcare (PHC). In Brazil, the Family Health Strategy (FHS) delivers PHC through the public health system. Created in 1994, the FHS covered almost 123 million individuals (63% of the Brazilian population) by 2015. The FHS has been associated with many health improvements, but gaps in coverage still remain. This article examines factors associated with the implementation and expansion of the FHS across 5419 Brazilian municipalities from 1998 to 2012. The proportion of the municipal population covered by the FHS over time was assessed using a longitudinal multilevel model for change that accounted for variables covering eight domains: economic development, healthcare supply, healthcare needs/access, availability of other sources of healthcare, political context, geographical isolation, regional characteristics and population size. Data were obtained from multiple publicly available sources. During the 15-year study period, national coverage of the FHS increased from 4.4% to 54%, with 58% of the municipalities having population coverage of 95% or more, and municipalities that had not adopted the programme decreased from 86.4% to 4.9%. The increase in FHS uptake and coverage was not homogenous across municipalities, and was positively associated with small population size, low population density, low coverage of private health insurance, low level of economic development, alignment of the political party of the Mayor and the state Governor, and availability of healthcare supply. Efforts to expand the FHS coverage will need to focus on increasing the availability of health personnel, devising financial incentives for municipalities to uptake/expand the FHS and devising new policies that encompass both private and public sectors.