Estimating the size of the monkeypox virus outbreak in Nigeria and implications for global control.

BACKGROUND: A multi-country outbreak caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV) has been unfolding across endemic and non-endemic countries since May 2022. Throughout April and May 2022, Nigeria reported 31 MPXV cases, of which 11 were confirmed via testing. In May 2022, three internationally exported cases of MPXV, presumed to have originated in Nigeria, were reported, suggesting that a larger than reported outbreak might be occurring in the country. METHODS: We used previously established methods to estimate the true size of the MPXV outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the incidence rate of exported MPXV cases among all outbound international air travellers from Nigeria during the time period of April and May 2022, using forecasted air traveller volumes. We then applied this incidence rate to the entire population of Nigeria during April and May 2022 assuming that the rate of infection was the same in Nigeria for both travellers and the resident population. Information on the subset of population that were considered to be travellers was obtained from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). RESULTS: We estimated that there were approximately 4000 (N = 4013; 95% CI: 828-11 728) active cases of MPXV in Nigeria in April and May 2022. This is approximately 360-fold greater than the confirmed number and approximately 130-fold greater than the reported number of cases in Nigeria. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that a larger outbreak than is appreciated may be ongoing in Nigeria. The observed international spread of MPXV offers important insights into the scale of the epidemic at its origin, where clinical detection and disease surveillance may be limited. These findings highlight the need to expand and support clinical, laboratory, and public health capacity to enable earlier detection of epidemics of international significance.

Real-World Incidence and Risk Factors for Daytime and Nocturnal Non-Severe Hypoglycemia in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus on Insulin and/or Secretagogues (InHypo-DM Study, Canada).

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the real-world incidence of self-reported non-severe hypoglycemia (NSH) and its related sociodemographic and clinical risk factors in a general population of Canadian adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) taking insulin and/or secretagogues. METHODS: Data for this study were obtained from the InHypo-DM Study. Self-reported data on the frequency of NSH (past 30 days) as well as sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were collected through an online questionnaire. Risk factors for any, daytime and nocturnal NSH were identified using multivariable negative binomial regression with backward selection. RESULTS: Among 432 adults with T2DM (43.8% female, mean age of 53.1 years), 53.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49.2% to 58.6%) reported ≥1 event of any (i.e. daytime or nocturnal) NSH in the past 30 days. The 30-day incidence rate of any NSH was 2.3 events per 30 person-days (95% CI, 2.1 to 2.4). Risk factors associated with the increased rate of any NSH were younger age, lower annual household income, being employed, longer duration of diabetes, higher glycated hemoglobin and presence of comorbidity. Risk factors were generally similar for daytime NSH (except for the exclusion of diabetes duration and addition of diabetes medication type) and nocturnal NSH (except for the exclusion of being employed). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest Canadian investigation to estimate the real-world frequency and distribution of self-reported NSH in T2DM. Events were alarmingly frequent and recurrent. Numerous sociodemographic and clinical risk factors were elucidated. These results highlight the importance of identifying high-risk individuals to minimize future occurrences of hypoglycemia.

Sleep outcomes associated with dry eye disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize and quantitatively evaluate sleep outcomes of dry eye disease (DED) patients. DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis. PARTICIPANTS: DED patients were individuals with dry eye symptoms or primary Sjogren's syndrome (pSS). Controls were healthy, non-pSS, or non-DED patients. METHODS: A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and grey literature was conducted. Studies were screened using Covidence software. Outcomes included sleep quality, duration, daytime sleepiness, prevalence/incidence/severity of sleep disorders, and sleep disturbances. Meta-analysis was conducted using STATA 13.0. The weighted mean difference (WMD) was calculated as the effect size for continuous scale outcomes. Random-effects models were developed based on the presence of heterogeneity. RESULTS: Seventeen full-text articles (16 370 subjects) and 2 conference abstracts (571 763 subjects) were included. Compared to controls, DED patients score higher on the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (WMD = 1.69, 95% CI: 0.82, 2.56; I2 = 88.8%, p < 0.001) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (WMD = 2.26, 95% CI: 0.96, 3.56; I2 = 82.4%, p < 0.001). Additionally, DED patients spend less time asleep (WMD = -0.59 hours, 95% CI: -0.94, -0.24; I2 = 85.1%, p < 0.001), experience more sleep disturbances, and may have increased prevalence, incidence, severity of sleep disorders. CONCLUSION: DED patients may have poorer sleep quality, greater daytime sleepiness, less sleep, more sleep disturbances, increased prevalence, incidence, and severity of sleep disorders compared to non-DED patients. Further research is needed to identify potential causes of these outcomes given the paucity and heterogeneity of included studies. It may be worthwhile to consider sleep in the clinical management of DED.