Can verbal autopsies be used on a national scale? Key findings and lessons from South Africa's national cause-of-death validation study.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA), though imperfect, serves as a vital tool to determine cause-of-death, particularly for out-of-facility deaths, but challenges persist in integrating VA into Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems. OBJECTIVE: To describe the challenges and successes of collecting a national sample of verbal autopsy interviews in South Africa to obtain the cause of death profile in 2017/18. METHODS: We recruited next of kin from 27 randomly selected sub-districts (10.5%) across South Africa between September 2017 and April 2018. Trained fieldworkers conducted face-to-face interviews using the WHO2016 VA instrument, with physicians certifying underlying causes of death. Feasibility was evaluated based on response rates, participation, and data quality. RESULTS: Of the total 36,976 deaths registered, only 26% were identified during recruitment, with a 55% overall response rate for VA interviews. Physician-reviewed VA data were deemed of good quality for assigning underlying causes of death in 83% of cases. By comparing cause-specific mortality fractions, physician-reviewed VA identified 22.3% HIV/AIDS and InterVA-5 identified 18.5%, aligning with burden of disease estimates, while Statistics South Africa reported 4.9% HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated the feasibility of using VA on a national scale, but immense challenges in identifying and recruiting next of kin highlight the importance of formalising VAs within the country's death notification system.

• Main findings: Next of kin of 9 730 decedents were approached at the time of registration of death and 55% consented to be approached later and agreed to do a VA interview by a trained field-worker; 83% of physician-reviewed VA data were considered high-quality for determining underlying causes and 22.3% of all the deaths were due to HIV/AIDS, much higher than the proportion reported in the national statistical office.• Added knowledge: Implementing the VA on a national scale was achievable but significant challenges in recruiting next of kin, emphasising a need to formalise VAs within the country's death notification system.• Global health impact for policy and action: Accurate cause-of-death data are crucial for policymakers to make informed decisions about the country's health system and could be supported by using VAs, particularly for the deaths that occur outside health facilities.

Prevalence of Anaemia, Iron Deficiency, and Iron Deficiency Anaemia in Women of Reproductive Age and Children under 5 Years of Age in South Africa (1997-2021): A Systematic Review.

Using a systematic review method, the prevalence of anaemia, iron deficiency (ID), and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) in women of reproductive age (WRA) and children under 5 years of age was obtained to inform priorities in health planning and policy in South Africa. We searched electronic databases for articles published between 1997 and 2021. A total of 713 articles were identified, of which 14 articles comprising 9649 WRA and 4085 children were included. Since most of the included studies were of low quality, we did not pool data in a meta-analysis due to heterogeneity (I2 > 75%). In WRA, anaemia prevalence ranged from 22.0% to 44.0%; ID from 7.7% and 19.0%; and IDA from 10.5% to 9.7%. The prevalence of anaemia in pregnancy was 29.0% to 42.7%; and 60.6% to 71.3% in HIV-infected pregnant women. Three national surveys reported anaemia in children at 28.9%, 10.7%, and 61.3%, respectively. Overall, among the children under 5 years old, anaemia was more prevalent in 1-year-olds (52.0%) compared to the other age groups. Between 2005 and 2012, ID increased by 3.8% and IDA decreased by 83.2% in children. Anaemia in WRA and children under 5 years in South Africa was a moderate public health concern. Therefore, interventions addressing anaemia should be intensified, and policies on iron supplementation and food fortification need to be revised and aligned to the WHO multiple micronutrient supplementation recommendations.

Can non-fatal burden estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study be used locally? An investigation using models of stroke and diabetes for South Africa.

Background: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) approach estimates disease burden by combining fatal (years of life lost) and non-fatal burden prevalence-based years of life lived with disability (PYLDs) estimates. Although South Africa has data to estimate mortality, prevalence data to estimate non-fatal burden are sparse. PYLD estimates from the GBD study for South Africa can potentially be used. However, there is a divergence in mortality estimates for South Africa between the second South African National Burden of Disease (SANBD2) and 2013 GBD studies. Objective: We investigated the feasibility of utilising GBD PYLD estimates for stroke and diabetes by exploring different disease modelling scenarios. Method: DisMod II software-generated South African stroke and diabetes PYLDs for 2010 from models using local epidemiological parameters and demographic data for people 20-79 years old. We investigated the impact on PYLD estimates of 1) differences in the cause-of-death envelope, 2) differences in the cause-specific mortality estimates (increase/decrease by 15% for stroke and 30% for diabetes), and 3) difference using local disease parameters compared to other country or region parameters. Differences were expressed as ratios, average ratios and ratio ranges. Results: Using the GBD cause-of-death envelope (16% more deaths than SANBD2) and holding other parameters constant yielded age-specific ratios of PYLDs for stroke and diabetes ranging between 0.89 and 1.07 (average 0.98) for males. Similar results were observed for females. A 15% change in age-specific stroke mortality showed little difference in the ratio comparison of PYLDs (range 0.98-1.02) while a 30% change in age-specific diabetes mortality resulted in a ratio range of 0.96-1.07 for PYLDs depending on age. Conclusion: This study showed that GBD non-fatal burden estimates (PYLDs) can be used for stroke and diabetes non-fatal burden in the SANBD2 study.

Availability and quality of routine morbidity data: review of studies in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Routine health information systems (RHISs) provide data that are vital for planning and monitoring individual health. Data from RHISs could also be used for purposes for which they were not originally intended, provided that the data are of sufficient quality. For example, morbidity data could be used to inform burden of disease estimations, which serve as important evidence to prioritize interventions and promote health. The objective of this study was to identify and assess published quantitative assessments of data quality related to patient morbidity in RHISs in use in South Africa. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a review of literature published between 1994 and 2014 that assessed the quality of data in RHISs in South Africa. World Health Organization (WHO) data quality components were used as the assessment criteria. RESULTS: Of 420 references identified, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria. The studies were limited to tuberculosis and HIV. No study reported more than 3 WHO data quality components or provided a quantitative assessment of quality that could be used for burden of disease estimation. DISCUSSION: The included studies had limited geographical focus and evaluated different source data at different levels of the information system. All studies reported poor data quality. CONCLUSION: This review confirmed concerns about the quality of data in RHISs, and highlighted the need for a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of patient-level morbidity data in RHISs in South Africa.

Epidemiology of lower respiratory infection and pneumonia in South Africa (1997-2015): a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and pneumonia are among the leading causes of death worldwide, especially in children aged under 5 years, and these patterns are reflected in the South African population. Local epidemiological data for LRIs and pneumonia are required to inform the Second National Burden of Disease Study underway in South Africa. The aim of this systematic review is to identify published studies reporting the prevalence, incidence, case fatality, duration or severity of LRI and pneumonia in adults and children in South Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Electronic database searches will be conducted to obtain studies reporting on the prevalence, incidence, case fatality, duration and severity of LRI and pneumonia in South Africa between January 1997 and December 2015. Studies that are assessed to have moderate or low risk of bias will be included in a meta-analysis, if appropriate. Where meta-analysis is not possible, the articles will be described narratively. Subgroup analysis (eg, age groups) will also be conducted where enough information is available. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systematic review will only include published data with no linked patient-level information; thus, no ethics approval is required. The findings will be used to calculate the burden of disease attributed to LRI and pneumonia in South Africa and will highlight the type of epidemiological data available in the country. The article will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed publication. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016036520.

Diarrhoea in children under five years of age in South Africa (1997-2014).

OBJECTIVE: To present evidence from available reliable published data on the prevalence, incidence and severity of diarrhoea in children aged under five years in South Africa. METHODS: We searched seven electronic databases. Two reviewers assessed the studies independently and extracted outcome data. The heterogeneity of the studies did not allow for a meta-analysis. RESULTS: We found only one nationally representative study conducted in 1998 reporting a diarrhoea prevalence of 13% in children under five. Other studies were conducted in smaller settings across the country. Diarrhoea incidence was 10.13 per 1000 person years in children admitted to a tertiary hospital. Three studies reported severity of diarrhoea; however, they differed across study settings and time period. CONCLUSION: The paucity of nationally representative prevalence data for SA necessitates more national surveys with standardised data-collection methods to allow for more effective comparisons.