Proteomic prediction of incident heart failure and its main subtypes.

AIM: To examine the ability of serum proteins in predicting future heart failure (HF) events, including HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF), in relation to event time, and with or without considering established HF-associated clinical variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES-RS), 440 individuals developed HF after their first visit with a median follow-up of 5.45 years. Among them, 167 were diagnosed with HFrEF and 188 with HFpEF. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model with non-parametric bootstrap were used to select predictors from an analysis of 4782 serum proteins, and several pre-established clinical parameters linked to HF. A subset of 8-10 distinct or overlapping serum proteins predicted different future HF outcomes, and C-statistics were used to assess discrimination, revealing proteins combined with a C-index of 0.80 for all incident HF, 0.78 and 0.80 for incident HFpEF or HFrEF, respectively. In the AGES-RS, protein panels alone encompassed the risk contained in the clinical information and improved the performance characteristics of prediction models based on N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and clinical risk factors. Finally, the protein predictors performed particularly well close to the time of an HF event, an outcome that was replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study. CONCLUSION: A small number of circulating proteins accurately predicted future HF in the AGES-RS cohort of older adults, and they alone encompass the risk information found in a collection of clinical data. Incident HF events were predicted up to 8 years, with predictor performance significantly improving for events occurring less than 1 year ahead, a finding replicated in an external cohort study.

A proteomic analysis of atrial fibrillation in a prospective longitudinal cohort (AGES-Reykjavik study).

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of comorbidities and mortality. Our aim was to examine causal and predictive relationships between 4137 serum proteins and incident AF in the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 4765 participants, of whom 1172 developed AF. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted for 4137 baseline protein measurements adjusting for known risk factors. Protein associations were tested for replication in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Causal relationships were examined in a bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-statistic was examined as protein levels and an AF-polygenic risk score (PRS) were added to clinical risk models. The proteomic signature of incident AF consisted of 76 proteins, of which 63 (83%) were novel and 29 (38%) were replicated in CHS. The signature included both N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-dependent (e.g. CHST15, ATP1B1, and SVEP1) and independent components (e.g. ASPN, AKR1B, and LAMA1/LAMB1/LAMC1). Nine causal candidates were identified (TAGLN, WARS, CHST15, CHMP3, COL15A1, DUSP13, MANBA, QSOX2, and SRL). The reverse causal analysis suggested that most AF-associated proteins were affected by the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide improved the prediction of incident AF events close to baseline with further improvements gained by the AF-PRS at all time points. CONCLUSION: The AF proteomic signature includes biologically relevant proteins, some of which may be causal. It mainly reflects an NT-proBNP-dependent consequence of the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide is a promising marker for incident AF in the short term, but risk assessment incorporating a PRS may improve long-term risk assessment.

A genome-wide association study of serum proteins reveals shared loci with common diseases.

With the growing number of genetic association studies, the genotype-phenotype atlas has become increasingly more complex, yet the functional consequences of most disease associated alleles is not understood. The measurement of protein level variation in solid tissues and biofluids integrated with genetic variants offers a path to deeper functional insights. Here we present a large-scale proteogenomic study in 5,368 individuals, revealing 4,035 independent associations between genetic variants and 2,091 serum proteins, of which 36% are previously unreported. The majority of both cis- and trans-acting genetic signals are unique for a single protein, although our results also highlight numerous highly pleiotropic genetic effects on protein levels and demonstrate that a protein's genetic association profile reflects certain characteristics of the protein, including its location in protein networks, tissue specificity and intolerance to loss of function mutations. Integrating protein measurements with deep phenotyping of the cohort, we observe substantial enrichment of phenotype associations for serum proteins regulated by established GWAS loci, and offer new insights into the interplay between genetics, serum protein levels and complex disease.

The associations of interstitial lung abnormalities with cancer diagnoses and mortality.

An increased incidence of lung cancer is well known among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. It is not known whether interstitial lung abnormalities, i.e. early fibrotic changes of the lung, are a risk factor for lung cancer in the general population.The study's objective was to assess whether interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with diagnoses of, and mortality from, lung cancer and other cancers. Data from the AGES-Reykjavik study, a cohort of 5764 older Icelandic adults, were used. Outcome data were ascertained from electronic medical records. Gray's tests, Cox proportional hazards models and proportional subdistribution hazards models were used to analyse associations of interstitial lung abnormalities with lung cancer diagnoses and lung cancer mortality as well as diagnoses and mortality from all cancers.There was a greater cumulative incidence of lung cancer diagnoses (p<0.001) and lung cancer mortality (p<0.001) in participants with interstitial lung abnormalities than in others. Interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with an increased hazard of lung cancer diagnosis (hazard ratio 2.77) and lung cancer mortality (hazard ratio 2.89) in adjusted Cox models. Associations of interstitial lung abnormalities with all cancers were found in models including lung cancers but not in models excluding lung cancers.People with interstitial lung abnormalities are at increased risk of lung cancer and lung cancer mortality, but not of other cancers. This implies that an association between fibrotic and neoplastic diseases of the lung exists from the early stages of lung fibrosis and suggests that interstitial lung abnormalities could be considered as a risk factor in lung cancer screening efforts.