RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.
RESUMEN
Alcohol consumption represents a major factor of morbidity and mortality, with a wide range of adverse medical implications that practically affect every organ system. It is the fifth major cause of deaths in men and women and causes up to 139 million disability-adjusted life years. Solid evidence places the risk as undoubtedly correlated to the length of time and amount of alcohol consumption. While alcohol-related liver disease represents one of the most studied and well-known consequences of alcohol use, the term itself embodies a wide spectrum of progressive disease stages that are responsible for almost half of the liver-related mortality worldwide. We discuss the staged alcohol-related fatty liver, alcohol-related steatohepatitis and, finally, fibrosis and cirrhosis, which ultimately may end up in a hepatocellular carcinoma. Other comorbidities such as acute and chronic pancreatitis; central nervous system; cardiovascular, respiratory and endocrine system; renal disease; urological pathologies; type 2 diabetes mellitus and even infectious diseases are reviewed in their relation to alcohol consumption. This article reviews the impact of alcohol use on different systems and organs, summarizing available evidence regarding its medical implications. It examines current basic and clinical data regarding mechanisms to highlight factors and processes that may be targetable to improve patient outcomes. Although alcohol use is a part of many cultural and social practices, as healthcare providers we must identify populations at high risk of alcohol abuse, educate patients about the potential alcohol-related harm and provide appropriate treatment.
