Origination of the modern-style diversity gradient 15 million years ago.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a prevalent feature of modern ecosystems across diverse clades1-4. Recognized for well over a century, the causal mechanisms for LDGs remain disputed, in part because numerous putative drivers simultaneously covary with latitude1,3,5. The past provides the opportunity to disentangle LDG mechanisms because the relationships among biodiversity, latitude and possible causal factors have varied over time6-9. Here we quantify the emergence of the LDG in planktonic foraminifera at high spatiotemporal resolution over the past 40 million years, finding that a modern-style gradient arose only 15 million years ago. Spatial and temporal models suggest that LDGs for planktonic foraminifera may be controlled by the physical structure of the water column. Steepening of the latitudinal temperature gradient over 15 million years ago, associated with an increased vertical temperature gradient at low latitudes, may have enhanced niche partitioning and provided more opportunities for speciation at low latitudes. Supporting this hypothesis, we find that higher rates of low-latitude speciation steepened the diversity gradient, consistent with spatiotemporal patterns of depth partitioning by planktonic foraminifera. Extirpation of species from high latitudes also strengthened the LDG, but this effect tended to be weaker than speciation. Our results provide a step change in understanding the evolution of marine LDGs over long timescales.

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100.

Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.

Triton, a new species-level database of Cenozoic planktonic foraminiferal occurrences.

Planktonic foraminifera are a major constituent of ocean floor sediments, and thus have one of the most complete fossil records of any organism. Expeditions to sample these sediments have produced large amounts of spatiotemporal occurrence records throughout the Cenozoic, but no single source exists to house these data. We have therefore created a comprehensive dataset that integrates numerous sources for spatiotemporal records of planktonic foraminifera. This new dataset, Triton, contains >500,000 records and is four times larger than the previous largest database, Neptune. To ensure comparability among data sources, we have cleaned all records using a unified set of taxonomic concepts and have converted age data to the GTS 2020 timescale. Where ages were not absolute (e.g. based on biostratigraphic or magnetostratigraphic zones), we have used generalised additive models to produce continuous estimates. This dataset is an excellent resource for macroecological and macroevolutionary studies, particularly for investigating how species responded to past climatic changes.

Assessing the utility of conserving evolutionary history.

It is often claimed that conserving evolutionary history is more efficient than species-based approaches for capturing the attributes of biodiversity that benefit people. This claim underpins academic analyses and recommendations about the distribution and prioritization of species and areas for conservation, but evolutionary history is rarely considered in practical conservation activities. One impediment to implementation is that arguments related to the human-centric benefits of evolutionary history are often vague and the underlying mechanisms poorly explored. Herein we identify the arguments linking the prioritization of evolutionary history with benefits to people, and for each we explicate the purported mechanism, and evaluate its theoretical and empirical support. We find that, even after 25 years of academic research, the strength of evidence linking evolutionary history to human benefits is still fragile. Most - but not all - arguments rely on the assumption that evolutionary history is a useful surrogate for phenotypic diversity. This surrogacy relationship in turn underlies additional arguments, particularly that, by capturing more phenotypic diversity, evolutionary history will preserve greater ecosystem functioning, capture more of the natural variety that humans prefer, and allow the maintenance of future benefits to humans. A surrogate relationship between evolutionary history and phenotypic diversity appears reasonable given theoretical and empirical results, but the strength of this relationship varies greatly. To the extent that evolutionary history captures unmeasured phenotypic diversity, maximizing the representation of evolutionary history should capture variation in species characteristics that are otherwise unknown, supporting some of the existing arguments. However, there is great variation in the strength and availability of evidence for benefits associated with protecting phenotypic diversity. There are many studies finding positive biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, but little work exists on the maintenance of future benefits or the degree to which humans prefer sets of species with high phenotypic diversity or evolutionary history. Although several arguments link the protection of evolutionary history directly with the reduction of extinction rates, and with the production of relatively greater future biodiversity via increased adaptation or diversification, there are few direct tests. Several of these putative benefits have mismatches between the relevant spatial scales for conservation actions and the spatial scales at which benefits to humans are realized. It will be important for future work to fill in some of these gaps through direct tests of the arguments we define here.

Future-proofing the Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera phylogeny of Aze & others (2011).

The unique macroevolutionary dataset of Aze & others has been transferred onto the TimeScale Creator visualisation platform while, as much as practicable, preserving the original unrevised content of its morphospecies and lineage evolutionary trees. This is a "Corrected Version" (not a revision), which can serve as an on-going historical case example because it is now updatable with future time scales. Both macroevolutionary and biostratigraphic communities are now equipped with an enduring phylogenetic database of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies and lineages for which both graphics and content can be visualised together. Key to maintaining the currency of the trees has been specification of time scales for sources of stratigraphic ranges; these scales then locate the range dates within the calibration series. Some ranges or their sources have undergone mostly minor corrections or amendments. Links between lineage and morphospecies trees have been introduced to improve consistency and transparency in timing within the trees. Also, Aze & others' dual employment of morphospecies and lineage concepts is further elaborated here, given misunderstandings that have ensued. Features displayed on the trees include options for line styles for additional categories for range extensions or degrees of support for ancestor-descendant proposals; these have been applied to a small number of instances as an encouragement to capture more nuanced data in the future. In addition to labeling of eco- and morpho-groups on both trees, genus labels can be attached to the morphospecies tree to warn of polyphyletic morphogenera, and the lineage codes have been decoded to ease their recognition. However, it is the mouse-over pop-ups that provide the greatest opportunity to embed supporting information in the trees. They include details for stratigraphic ranges and their recalibration steps, positions relative to the standard planktonic-foraminiferal zonation, and applications as datums, as well as mutual listings between morphospecies and lineages which ease the tracing of their interrelated contents. The elaboration of the original dataset has been captured in a relational database, which can be considered a resource in itself, and, through queries and programming, serves to generate the TimeScale Creator datapacks.

Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record.

The branching times of molecular phylogenies allow us to infer speciation and extinction dynamics even when fossils are absent. Troublingly, phylogenetic approaches usually return estimates of zero extinction, conflicting with fossil evidence. Phylogenies and fossils do agree, however, that there are often limits to diversity. Here, we present a general approach to evaluate the likelihood of a phylogeny under a model that accommodates diversity-dependence and extinction. We find, by likelihood maximization, that extinction is estimated most precisely if the rate of increase in the number of lineages in the phylogeny saturates towards the present or first decreases and then increases. We demonstrate the utility and limits of our approach by applying it to the phylogenies for two cases where a fossil record exists (Cetacea and Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera) and to three radiations lacking fossil evidence (Dendroica, Plethodon and Heliconius). We propose that the diversity-dependence model with extinction be used as the standard model for macro-evolutionary dynamics because of its biological realism and flexibility.

The meaning of birth and death (in macroevolutionary birth-death models).

Birth-death models are central to much macroevolutionary theory. The fundamental parameters of these models concern durations. Different species concepts realize different species durations because they represent different ideas of what birth (speciation) and death (extinction) mean. Here, we use Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera as a case study to ask: what are the dynamical consequences of changing the definition of birth and death? We show strong evidence for biotic constraints on diversification using evolutionary species, but less with morphospecies. Discussing reasons for this discrepancy, we emphasize that clarity of species concept leads to clarity of meaning when interpreting macroevolutionary birth-death models.

Interplay between changing climate and species' ecology drives macroevolutionary dynamics.

Ecological change provokes speciation and extinction, but our knowledge of the interplay among the biotic and abiotic drivers of macroevolution remains limited. Using the unparalleled fossil record of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera, we demonstrate that macroevolutionary dynamics depend on the interaction between species' ecology and the changing climate. This interplay drives diversification but differs between speciation probability and extinction risk: Speciation was more strongly shaped by diversity dependence than by climate change, whereas the reverse was true for extinction. Crucially, no single ecology was optimal in all environments, and species with distinct ecologies had significantly different probabilities of speciation and extinction. The ensuing macroevolutionary dynamics depend fundamentally on the ecological structure of species' assemblages.

A phylogeny of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera from fossil data.

We present a complete phylogeny of macroperforate planktonic foraminifer species of the Cenozoic Era (∼65 million years ago to present). The phylogeny is developed from a large body of palaeontological work that details the evolutionary relationships and stratigraphic (time) distributions of species-level taxa identified from morphology ('morphospecies'). Morphospecies are assigned to morphogroups and ecogroups depending on test morphology and inferred habitat, respectively. Because gradual evolution is well documented in this clade, we have identified many instances of morphospecies intergrading over time, allowing us to eliminate 'pseudospeciation' and 'pseudoextinction' from the record and thereby permit the construction of a more natural phylogeny based on inferred biological lineages. Each cladogenetic event is determined as either budding or bifurcating depending on the pattern of morphological change at the time of branching. This lineage phylogeny provides palaeontologically calibrated ages for each divergence that are entirely independent of molecular data. The tree provides a model system for macroevolutionary studies in the fossil record addressing questions of speciation, extinction, and rates and patterns of evolution.