The state of food systems worldwide in the countdown to 2030.

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world's food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.

Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050-The role of international trade.

The connection between international trade and food systems (un)sustainability is both contentious and critical for policy work supporting progress towards achieving the twin goals of hunger alleviation and dietary health while improving the overall sustainability of development. We characterize the food system using a set of metrics based upon the EAT-Lancet commission dietary guidelines for both over- and under-consumption of different foods to assess country-level dietary health and sustainability in tandem. Using a partial equilibrium model of agricultural production and trade, we then project the functioning of the global agricultural system to 2050 and calculate the metrics for that year. For most regions we find increased overconsumption above the expert-defined healthy and sustainable diet thresholds, with more limited progress towards closing dietary health and sustainability gaps where they currently exist. Trade influences this dynamic into the future under certain socioeconomic conditions, and we find that under a "business as usual" trade environment, future agricultural import profiles continue to be misaligned with dietary health and sustainability outcomes, suggesting the potential for early intervention in trade policy as a means to positively influence food system outcomes.

Global assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on food security.

In this paper we present the first global assessments of COVID-19's impacts on food systems and their actors, focusing specifically on the food security and nutritional status of those affected in low and middle-income countries. The assessment covers 62 countries and is based on the analysis of 337 documents published in English, French, Spanish and Portuguese. The review confirms the magnitude and the severity of an unprecedented crisis that has spread worldwide and has spared only a few. The analysis shows that the dimension of food security that has been most affected is accessibility, with reasonably solid evidence suggesting that both financial and physical access to food have been disrupted. In contrast, there is no clear evidence that the availability of food has been affected. Overall, data suggests that food systems resisted and adapted to the disruption of the pandemic. This resilience came, however, at great costs, with the majority of the systems' actors having to cope with severe disruptions in their activities. In contrast, grocery stores and supermarkets made billions of dollars in profits in 2020.

Resilience of local food systems and links to food security - A review of some important concepts in the context of COVID-19 and other shocks.

The objective of this review is to explore and discuss the concept of local food system resilience in light of the disruptions brought to those systems by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The discussion, which focuses on low and middle income countries, considers also the other shocks and stressors that generally affect local food systems and their actors in those countries (weather-related, economic, political or social disturbances). The review of existing (mainly grey or media-based) accounts on COVID-19 suggests that, with the exception of those who lost members of their family to the virus, as per June 2020 the main impact of the pandemic derives mainly from the lockdown and mobility restrictions imposed by national/local governments, and the consequence that the subsequent loss of income and purchasing power has on people's food security, in particular the poor. The paper then uses the most prominent advances made recently in the literature on household resilience in the context of food security and humanitarian crises to identify a series of lessons that can be used to improve our understanding of food system resilience and its link to food security in the context of the COVID-19 crisis and other shocks. Those lessons include principles about the measurement of food system resilience and suggestions about the types of interventions that could potentially strengthen the abilities of actors (including policy makers) to respond more appropriately to adverse events affecting food systems in the future.

Conceptualising COVID-19's impacts on household food security.

COVID-19 undermines food security both directly, by disrupting food systems, and indirectly, through the impacts of lockdowns on household incomes and physical access to food. COVID-19 and responses to the pandemic could undermine food production, processing and marketing, but the most concerning impacts are on the demand-side - economic and physical access to food. This paper identifies three complementary frameworks that can contribute to understanding these effects, which are expected to persist into the post-pandemic phase, after lockdowns are lifted. FAO's 'four pillars'- availability, access, stability and utilisation - and the 'food systems' approach both provide holistic frameworks for analysing food security. Sen's 'entitlement' approach is useful for disaggregating demand-side effects on household production-, labour-, trade- and transfer-based entitlements to food. Drawing on the strengths of each of these frameworks can enhance the understanding of the pandemic's impacts on food security, while also pinpointing areas for governments and other actors to intervene in the food system, to protect the food security of households left vulnerable by COVID-19 and public responses.

Changing diets and the transformation of the global food system.

An aspirational global food system is one that delivers across a suite of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including universal access to healthy diets, which can also codeliver on climate and environment SDGs. The literature has downplayed the relative contribution of dietary change to sustainable food systems. In this perspective article, we argue that the potential for positive transformational change in diets should not be underestimated, for two sets of reasons. First, the dynamism of diets over long-term and, especially, recent history shows the potential for rapid and widespread change, including toward more diverse and healthier diets. Second, contemporary behavioral research demonstrates promising tactics to influence consumers' dietary choices. Since the entire food system creates the circumstances of those choices, the most effective strategies to shift diets will involve multiple approaches that deliberately aim not just to influence consumers themselves but also to incentivize all actors in the food systems, taking into account multiple agendas and values. The effectiveness of actions will depend on the political economy at local, national, and global levels. Overall, there are reasons to be hopeful about the potential for accelerated global dietary change, given both historic trends and the growing suite of tools and approaches available.

Child Overweight or Obesity Is Associated with Modifiable and Geographic Factors in Vietnam: Implications for Program Design and Targeting.

Child overweight or obesity is increasing in most countries, including Vietnam. We sought to elucidate the drivers of child overweight or obesity in Vietnam and understand how they vary geographically. We compiled nationally representative cross-sectional data from the Vietnam Nutrition Surveillance Survey collected annually between 2012-2015 and household income data from the General Statistics Office. We used a quasi-Poisson log link function to calculate relative risks (RRs) of under-five child overweight or obesity for 13 variables and stratified analyses by child age (<2 y and 2-5 y) and region. Additional analysis included log-log linear regression to assess the relationship between average provincial monthly per capita income and child overweight or obesity. The strongest associations with child overweight or obesity included birthweight >4000 g (RR: 1.66; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48, 1.86), maternal body mass index (BMI) ≥27.5 compared with BMI <23 (RR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.47, 1.78), and living in the Southeast (RR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.84, 2.30), Mekong River Delta (RR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.77), or Central South (RR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.37, 1.74) compared with the Central Highland. A 20% higher provincial average monthly per capita income was associated with a 17.4% higher prevalence in child overweight or obesity (P < 0.0001, Adjusted R2 = 0.36). High birthweight and maternal BMI were strongly associated with child overweight or obesity but are not likely primary drivers in Vietnam, given their low prevalence. C-section delivery, sedentary lifestyle, high maternal education, urbanicity, and high household income affect a large proportion of the population and are, therefore, important risk factors. Policies and programs should target these factors and regions at greatest risk of overweight or obesity, particularly the Southeast and Mekong River Delta.

Global drivers of food system (un)sustainability: A multi-country correlation analysis.

At present, our ability to comprehend the dynamics of food systems and the consequences of their rapid 'transformations' is limited. In this paper, we propose to address this gap by exploring the interactions between the sustainability of food systems and a set of key drivers at the global scale. For this we compile a metric of 12 key drivers of food system from a globally-representative set of low, middle, and high-income countries and analyze the relationships between these drivers and a composite index that integrates the four key dimensions of food system sustainability, namely: food security & nutrition, environment, social, and economic dimensions. The two metrics highlight the important data gap that characterizes national systems' statistics-in particular in relation to transformation, transport, retail and distribution. Spearman correlations and Principal Component Analysis are then used to explore associations between levels of sustainability and drivers. With the exception of one economic driver (trade flows in merchandise and services), the majority of the statistically significant correlations found between food system sustainability and drivers appear to be negative. The fact that most of these negative drivers are closely related to the global demographic transition that is currently affecting the world population highlights the magnitude of the challenges ahead. This analysis is the first one that provides quantitative evidence at the global scale about correlations between the four dimensions of sustainability of our food systems and specific drivers.

Global map and indicators of food system sustainability.

This paper presents the first global map of food systems sustainability based on a rigorous protocol. The choice of the metric dimensions, as well as the individual indicators included in the metric, were initially identified from a thorough review of the existing literature. A rigorous inclusion/exclusion protocol was then used to refine the list and shorten it to a sub-set of 27 indicators. An aggregate sustainability score was then computed based on those 27 indicators organized into four dimensions: environment, social, food security & nutrition and economic. The paper shows how the availability of data (or lack therefore) results in an unavoidable trade-off between number of indicators and number of countries, and highlights how optimization can be used to present the most robust metric possible given the existence of this trade-offs in the data space. The process results in the computation of a global sustainability map covering 97 countries and 20 indicators. The sustainability scores obtained for each country are made available over the entire range of indicators.

The potential role of small fish species in improving micronutrient deficiencies in developing countries: building evidence.

OBJECTIVE: To build a comprehensive overview of the potential role of fish in improving nutrition with respect to certain micronutrient deficiencies in developing countries. DESIGN: A comprehensive literature review was completed. For this the electronic library databases ASFA, CABD and Scopus were systematically searched and relevant references cited in these sources were carefully analysed. The search terms used were 'fish', 'small fish species', 'micronutrients', 'food-based strategies', 'fish consumption' and 'developing countries'. The quality of data on nutritional analyses was carefully reviewed and data that lacked proper information on methods, units and samples were excluded. RESULTS: The evidence collected confirmed the high levels of vitamin A, Fe and Zn in some of the small fish species in developing countries. These small fish are reported to be more affordable and accessible than the larger fish and other usual animal-source foods and vegetables. Evidence suggests that these locally available small fish have considerable potential as cost-effective food-based strategies to enhance micronutrient intakes or as a complementary food for undernourished children. However, the present review shows that only a few studies have been able to rigorously assess the impact of fish consumption on improved nutritional status in developing countries. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is required in areas such as determination of fish consumption patterns of poor households, the nutritional value of local fish and other aquatic animals and the impact of fish intake on improved nutritional status in developing countries where undernutrition is a major public health problem.

Inland capture fisheries.

The reported annual yield from inland capture fisheries in 2008 was over 10 million tonnes, although real catches are probably considerably higher than this. Inland fisheries are extremely complex, and in many cases poorly understood. The numerous water bodies and small rivers are inhabited by a wide range of species and several types of fisher community with diversified livelihood strategies for whom inland fisheries are extremely important. Many drivers affect the fisheries, including internal fisheries management practices. There are also many drivers from outside the fishery that influence the state and functioning of the environment as well as the social and economic framework within which the fishery is pursued. The drivers affecting the various types of inland water, rivers, lakes, reservoirs and wetlands may differ, particularly with regard to ecosystem function. Many of these depend on land-use practices and demand for water which conflict with the sustainability of the fishery. Climate change is also exacerbating many of these factors. The future of inland fisheries varies between continents. In Asia and Africa the resources are very intensely exploited and there is probably little room for expansion; it is here that resources are most at risk. Inland fisheries are less heavily exploited in South and Central America, and in the North and South temperate zones inland fisheries are mostly oriented to recreation rather than food production.