The Effect of Missing Item Data on the Relative Predictive Accuracy of Correctional Risk Assessment Tools.

Missing data are pervasive in risk assessment but their impact on predictive accuracy has largely been unexplored. Common techniques for handling missing risk data include summing available items or proration; however, multiple imputation is a more defensible approach that has not been methodically tested against these simpler techniques. We compared the validity of these three missing data techniques across six conditions using STABLE-2007 (N = 4,286) and SARA-V2 (N = 455) assessments from men on community supervision in Canada. Condition 1 was the observed data (low missingness), and Conditions 2 to 6 were generated missing data conditions, whereby 1% to 50% of items per case were randomly deleted in 10% increments. Relative predictive accuracy was unaffected by missing data, and simpler techniques performed just as well as multiple imputation, but summed totals underestimated absolute risk. The current study therefore provides empirical justification for using proration when data are missing within a sample.

Sexting in Young Adults: A Normative Sexual Behavior.

With the advancement of technology, sexting has become more prominent in high school and university samples. The current study examined the rates and characteristics of sexting among an online sample of 2,828 young adults aged 18-30, primarily from the U.S. and Canada. We found that most participants sext (81%), sext often (most report ≥ 11 sexts), and start young (most by 16-17 years of age). Common reasons for sexting echoed reasons for participating in other normative sexual behaviors, including that it was sexually arousing, they were asked and wanted to reciprocate, or they wanted to flirt. Sexual coercion was a gendered phenomenon, with 1 in 10 cisgender women and 1 in 50 cisgender men reporting having sent a sext due to being threatened. The body parts captured in cisgender men's sexts were more diverse, whereas cisgender women focused on their chest, underwear/genitalia, and stomach. Sexual orientation was also found to be a relevant factor, with different patterns in sexting experiences emerging across identities. The current study adds to the mounting evidence that sexting is a normative sexual behavior. Sexual education programs should provide youth with information on consent and safe sexting practices rather than follow an abstinence approach.

Dynamic Risk Scales Degrade Over Time: Evidence for Reassessments.

Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive accuracy decreases over time for the ACUTE-2007 and the STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools. We used two independent samples of men on community supervision (NStudy 1 = 795; NStudy 2 = 4,221). For all outcomes (sexual, violent, and any recidivism [including technical violations]), reassessments improved predictive accuracy, with the largest effects found for the most recent assessment (i.e., those closest in time prior to the recidivism event). Based on these results, we recommend that ACUTE-2007 assessments occur at least every 30 days and that the STABLE-2007 assessments occur every 6 months or after significant life changes (e.g., successful completion of treatment).

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

OBJECTIVE: Risk assessment is essential to effective correctional practice. For individuals with contact sexual offenses, many risk tools are available. There are fewer options, however, for individuals whose sexual offending exclusively involves child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM; legally referred to in Canada and the United States as child pornography). HYPOTHESES: The present study examined the predictive validity of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools among men with CSEM offenses. We expected these tools to show moderate predictive validity across study groups. METHOD: We compared the scales' discrimination and calibration across three groups: (a) 1,042 men with contact sexual offenses against children (baseline comparison), (b) 228 men with exclusive CSEM offending (no contact sexual offenses), and (c) 80 men with both contact sexual offenses and CSEM offenses. RESULTS: We found that the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 total scores and items had comparable (and often better) discrimination for men with CSEM offending compared with contact sexual offending against children in the prediction of any sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, and any recidivism. Calibration analyses indicated that the overall sexual recidivism rates for the median ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 scores were similar for men with exclusive CSEM offenses compared with men with any contact offending against children. Almost all of the sexual recidivism for the CSEM-exclusive group involved further CSEM offenses. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the use of these tools to rank-order men with CSEM offending in terms of their risk of reoffending and to help direct treatment and management efforts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Emotional Congruence with Children: An Empirical Examination of Different Models in Men with a History of Sexually Offending Against Children.

Emotional congruence with children (ECWC) is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sexual offending against children (SOC). Based on previous research and theory, three models have been proposed to explain ECWC: Blockage, Sexual Domain, and Psychological Immaturity. Using structural equation modelling in a routine correctional sample of men adjudicated for sexual offences (n = 983), we found little support for all three of these models. Instead, we found that atypical sexual interests, alone, best explained ECWC, with a moderate relationship to ECWC. Using the predictors associated with each of the three models of ECWC, we identified three classes of men with a history of SOC who are high in ECWC using latent class analyses (n = 377). These three classes generally did not replicate the three models of ECWC. We instead propose three subgroups of men with histories of SOC who are high in ECWC, characterized respectively by: relationship deficits; youth and loneliness; and high sexual and general criminality. High levels of ECWC are predictive of a higher risk of sexual recidivism, regardless of class association; however, these subgroups are differentially at risk for some types of recidivism. Our findings suggest that ECWC is a multi-faceted construct, which is still not well understood.

An Examination of the Latent Constructs in Risk Tools for Individuals Who Sexually Offend: Applying Multidimensional Item Response Theory to the Static-2002R.

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) was used to study the construct validity of the Static-2002R, an actuarial scale for the assessment of reoffending among adult men who sexually offended. Using a sample of 2,569 individuals with a history of sexual crime, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) extracted three factors: Persistence/Paraphilia, General Criminality, and Youthful Stranger Aggression. MIRT confirmed the factor structure identified in the EFA model and provided item-level data on discrimination and difficulty. All Static-2002R items showed moderate to very high discrimination and covered a wide range of risk levels (i.e., difficulty). MIRT analyses attested to the construct validity of the scale, as no items were identified as problematic and the resulting factor structure was consistent with that of earlier studies. Considering the stability of results pertaining to the factor structure of the Static-2002R and the advantages of dimensional scoring, we recommend the integration of dimensional scores in the scale.

Viewing Time Measures of Sexual Interest and Sexual Offending Propensity: An Online Survey of Fathers.

Relative viewing times (VTs)-time required to view and evaluate sexually salient images-discriminate individuals with a sexual interest in children, as indirectly indexed by their history of sexual offending against children, from those without such history. In an online sample of 652 fathers, we measured VTs and sexual attraction ratings to child and adult images. We assessed participants' sexual offending history and propensity (self-reported likelihood to have a sexual contact with a child, a non-consensual sexual contact with an adult, and propensity toward father-daughter incest). In contrast with VT studies involving clinical or forensic samples, VTs and attraction ratings failed to discriminate participants with a sexual offending history. VTs successfully distinguished participants with a propensity to sexually offend against children but failed to identify those with a propensity toward incest. Conversely, attraction ratings distinguished participants with a propensity toward incest but failed to identify those with a propensity to sexually offend against children. Correlations between VTs and attraction ratings were small. Results illustrate, for the first time, the distribution of VT measures in community fathers, support the feasibility of online administration of VT tasks to detect propensity to sexually offend against children, and indicate that sexual interest in children and incest propensity are distinct.

Improving Our Risk Communication: Standardized Risk Levels for Brief Assessment of Recidivism Risk-2002R.

A Five-Level Risk and Needs system has been proposed as a common language for standardizing the meaning of risk levels across risk/need tools used in corrections. Study 1 examined whether the Five-Levels could be applied to BARR-2002R (N = 2,390), an actuarial tool for general recidivism. Study 2 examined the construct validity of BARR-2002R risk levels in two samples of individuals with a history of sexual offending (N = 1,081). Study 1 found reasonable correspondence between BARR-2002R scores and four of the five standardized risk levels (no Level V). Study 2 found that the profiles of individuals in Levels II, III, and IV were mostly consistent with expectations; however, individuals in the lowest risk level (Level I) had more criminogenic needs than expected based on the original descriptions of the Five-Levels. The Five-Level system was mostly successful when applied to BARR-2002R. Revisions to this system, or the inclusion of putatively dynamic risk factors and protective factors, may be required to improve alignment with the information provided by certain risk tools.

Attraction to Physical and Psychological Features of Children in Child-Attracted Persons.

In an online survey of 274 self-identified child-attracted persons (CAPs), we examined the attraction ratings given to sets of 9 physical and 12 psychological features of children, and asked CAPs to identify additional features that were not listed. We also examined the relationships between these attraction ratings and attraction to children dimensions (age mono-/polymorphism, exclusivity of attraction to children, and gender attraction), history of falling in love with a child, and detected sexual offending history. There was relatively little differentiation across physical features and psychological features; all averages were approximately 4 or higher on a 5-point scale. Attraction ratings were mostly weakly and inconsistently related to our other study variables. The exception was that CAPs who had fallen in love with a child rated 11 out of 12 psychological features as more attractive than CAPs who had not fallen in love with a child, with small to moderate effect sizes. These two groups did not differ in ratings for physical features. Our qualitative content analysis of participant-suggested features revealed six physical themes (inter alia, face and head, children's bodies) and five psychological themes (inter alia, personality, harmlessness) that were important to CAPs' attraction to children.

Measurement of Sexual Interests with Pupillary Responses: A Meta-Analysis.

Objective measures of sexual interest are important for research on human sexuality. There has been a resurgence in research examining pupil dilation as a potential index of sexual orientation. We carried out a meta-analytic review of studies published between 1965 and 2020 (Mdn year = 2016) measuring pupil responses to visual stimuli of adult men and women to assess sexual interest. Separate meta-analyses were performed for six sexual orientation categories. In the final analysis, 15 studies were included for heterosexual men (N = 550), 5 studies for gay men (N = 65), 4 studies for bisexual men (N = 124), 13 studies for heterosexual women (N = 403), and 3 studies for lesbian women (N = 132). Only heterosexual and gay men demonstrated discrimination in pupillary responses that was clearly in line with their sexual orientation, with greater pupil dilation to female and male stimuli, respectively. Bisexual men showed greater pupil dilation to male stimuli. Although heterosexual women exhibited larger pupils to male stimuli compared to female stimuli, the magnitude of the effect was small and non-significant. Finally, lesbian women displayed greater pupil dilation to male stimuli. Three methodological moderators were identified-the sexual explicitness of stimulus materials, the measurement technique of pupillary response, and inclusion of self-report measures of sexual interest. These meta-analyses are based on a limited number of studies and are therefore preliminary. However, the results suggest that pupillary measurement of sexual interest is promising for men and that standardization is essential to gain a better understanding of the validity of this measurement technique for sexual interest.

STABLE-2007 Demonstrates Predictive and Incremental Validity in Assessing Risk-Relevant Propensities for Sexual Offending: A Meta-Analysis.

STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk-relevant propensities for adult males convicted of a sexual offense. This meta-analysis evaluated the ability of STABLE-2007 and its items to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists, and the extent to which STABLE-2007 improves prediction over and above Static-99R. Based on 21 studies (12 unique samples, N = 6,955), we found that STABLE-2007 was significantly and incrementally related to sexual recidivism, violent (nonsexual) recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any crime. Scores on STABLE-2007 items and the three STABLE-2000 attitude items also discriminated between individuals who sexually reoffended and those who did not sexually reoffend. These findings support the use of STABLE-2007 in applied risk assessment practice and the interpretation of STABLE-2007 items as indicators of treatment and supervision targets.

Monitoring changes in risk of reoffending: A prospective study of 632 men on community supervision.

OBJECTIVES: Few studies have examined how much individuals change on intermediate targets of risk to reoffend. Even fewer studies have examined the extent to which change on such measures predict reoffending. Establishing the validity of intermediate measures requires a multistep approach that (a) assesses the reliability of the change, (b) assesses change using statistical analyses that can account for measurement error, and (c) examines the extent to which change on these intermediate measures predict reoffending. METHOD: The current study examined the validity of an intermediate measure of risk to reoffend scored by community supervision officers (i.e., ACUTE-2007) in a large sample of men convicted of sexually motivated offenses (N = 632). RESULTS: We found that risk to reoffend changes across time, the pattern of change varies across individuals, risk levels can predict different patterns of change, and that the best predictors of recidivism are the latest score or a rolling average of scores. CONCLUSIONS: Community supervision can use recent information concerning the community adjustment of their clients to predict recidivism. Best practice includes updating assessments and adjusting supervision practices based on their clients' most recent assessment, or the average of previous assessments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

A Meta-analysis Comparing Male Adolescents Who Have Sexually Offended Against Intrafamilial Versus Extrafamilial Victims.

This meta-analysis examined whether theoretically and clinically relevant differences exist between male adolescents who have sexually offended against intrafamilial victims (AIV) and male adolescents who have sexually offended against extrafamilial victims (AEV). A total of 26 independent samples (8 published and 18 unpublished) that compared a total of 2169 AIV and 2852 AEV were analyzed. The results of this meta-analysis indicate that categorizing male adolescents who commit sexual offenses based on their relationship to victims is a meaningful distinction. We found that AIV presented with greater atypical sexual interests, increased sexual regulation issues, more severe family dysfunction, more extensive childhood maltreatment histories, and greater internalizing psychopathology than AEV. Conversely, AEV presented with more indicators of antisociality than AIV, suggesting that extrafamilial sexual offending might fit better with a generalist explanation of adolescent sexual offending. Findings highlight the value of assessing family dysfunction and maltreatment history, sexual development and regulation, and general delinquency factors to better understand adolescents who have committed a sexual offense.

Sexual Attraction and Falling in Love in Persons with Pedohebephilia.

Few studies of pedophilia or hebephilia have included questions about romantic attraction. We conducted an anonymous online survey of 306 men who self-reported as sexually attracted to children. The majority (72%) of participants reported they had fallen in love with a child in their lifetime. Participants reported greater feelings of attachment to children than feelings of infatuation. Though sexual attraction and falling in love were strongly correlated, they were not synonymous. Participants who reported pedohebephilia (defined in this study as attraction to prepubescent and pubescent children) were more likely to have fallen in love with a child than participants who reported pedohebe-ephebophilia (defined as attraction to prepubescent, pubescent, and post-pubescent minors). Also, participants with an exclusive attraction to children were more likely to have fallen in love with a child than participants who were equally attracted to children and adults. The results of this study were consistent with the suggestion of Seto (2012) that pedohebephilia could be considered a form of sexual orientation for age, which includes both sexual and romantic attraction.

An Examination of the Westermarck Hypothesis and the Role of Disgust in Incest Avoidance Among Fathers.

From an evolutionary perspective, incestuous behavior is puzzling. The goal of this study was to assess the tenability of the Westermarck hypothesis (1891, 1921)-that people who live in close physical proximity with one another during childhood will develop a sexual indifference or aversion toward one another-and the mediating role of disgust as an incest avoidance mechanism in father-daughter relationships. A sample of fathers with daughters ( N = 632) from Canada and the United States were recruited by Qualtrics-a survey platform and project management company-to complete an online survey. The results from this study did not support the viability of the Westermarck hypothesis as a mechanism that facilitates incest avoidance for fathers. Physical proximity was not associated with incest propensity or disgust toward incest. Less disgust toward incest, however, was found to be associated with more incest propensity. These results indicate that physical proximity may not be a reliable kinship cue used by fathers to inform incest avoidance, but that disgust toward incest may still be a proximate mechanism that facilitates incest avoidance among fathers using kinship cues other than physical proximity.

Are There Early Risk Markers for Pedophilia? A Nationwide Case-Control Study of Child Sexual Exploitation Material Offenders.

Although prior research suggests associations between parental characteristics and later sexual offending in offspring, possible links between early pregnancy-related factors and sexual offending remain unclear. Early risk markers unique to sexual offending, however, may be more prominent among sexual offenders with atypical sexual interests, such as individuals involved with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM; also referred to as child pornography). We examined the prospective association between parental and pregnancy-related risk markers and a behavioral indicator of pedophilic interest, CSEM offending. All 655 men born in Sweden and convicted of CSEM offending between 1988 to 2009 were matched 1:5 on sex, birth year, and county of birth in Sweden to 3,928 controls without sexual or nonsexual violent convictions. Paternal age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.1, 1.7]), parental education (AOR = 0.8, 95% CI [0.6, 0.9]), parental violent criminality (AOR = 2.9, 95% CI [2.2, 3.8]), number of older brothers (AOR = 0.8, 95% CI [0.6, 0.9] per brother), and congenital malformations (AOR = 1.7, 95% CI [1.2, 2.4]) all independently predicted CSEM convictions. This large-scale, nationwide study suggests parental risk markers for CSEM offending. We did not, however, find convincing evidence for pregnancy-related risk markers, with the exception of congenital malformations and having fewer older brothers.

The Use of Film Clips in a Viewing Time Task of Sexual Interests.

Viewing time tasks using still pictures to assess age and gender sexual interests have been well validated and are commonly used. The use of film clips in a viewing time task would open up interesting possibilities for the study of sexual interest toward sexual targets or activities that are not easily captured in still pictures. We examined the validity of a viewing time task using film clips to assess sexual interest toward male and female targets, in a sample of 52 young adults. Film clips produced longer viewing times than still pictures. For both men and women, the indices derived from the film viewing time task were able to distinguish individuals who identified as homosexual (14 men, 8 women) from those who identified as heterosexual (15 men, 15 women), and provided comparable group differentiation as indices derived from a viewing time task using still pictures. Men's viewing times were more gender-specific than those of women. Viewing times to film clips were correlated with participants' ratings of sexual appeal of the same clips, and with viewing times to pictures. The results support the feasibility of a viewing time measure of sexual interest that utilizes film clips and, thus, expand the types of sexual interests that could be investigated (e.g., sadism, biastophilia).

Inhibiting Sexual Arousal to Children: Correlates and Its Influence on the Validity of Penile Plethysmography.

The current study examined the extent to which 1136 men were able to inhibit their sexual arousal on a phallometric assessment, when instructed to do so. Although the observed changes between the two conditions (i.e., Normal and Suppression) were small to moderate in magnitude, the change was not more than what would be expected by measurement error for most participants (e.g., 83% of pedophilic sex offenders against children did not successfully inhibit their sexual arousal in the Suppression condition). There were very few variables that were associated with the ability to suppress. Higher Pedophilia Index scores in the Suppression condition predicted a greater likelihood of sexual recidivism among sex offenders (hazard ratio = 1.17, 95% CI [1.04, 1.32]), but the ability to suppress sexual arousal was not found to predict sexual recidivism. The current study highlights the importance of accounting for measurement error and found that, when doing so, most sex offenders against children are unable to successfully inhibit their sexual arousal to children when instructed to do so, and that the ability to suppress sexual arousal is not associated with recidivism.

A Meta-Analysis of Viewing Time Measures of Sexual Interest in Children.

Due to unobtrusiveness and ease of implementation, viewing time (VT) measures of sexual interest in children have sparked increasing research interest in forensic contexts over the last two decades. The current study presents two meta-analyses of VT measures adapted to assess pedophilic interest to determine their discrimination between sexual offenders against children (SOC) and non-SOC groups as well as convergent validity (associations with other measures of sexual interest in children). On average, VT measures showed moderate discrimination between criterion groups (fixed-effect d = 0.60, 95 % CI [0.51, 0.68], N = 2705, k = 14) and significant convergent validity with self-reports, penile plethysmography, Implicit Association Tests, and offence behavioral measures ranging from r = .18 to r = .38. VT measures, however, provided better discrimination for adults (fixed-effect d = 0.78, 95 % CI [0.64, 0.92]) than adolescent samples (fixed-effect d = 0.50, 95 % CI [0.40, 0.61]), Q between = 9.37, p = .002. Moreover, compared to absolute scores, using pedophilic difference scores within adult samples substantially increased VT measures' validity (fixed-effect d = 1.03, 95 % CI [0.82, 1.25], N = 414, k = 7). Results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and applied implications for forensic contexts.

Communicating the results of criterion referenced prediction measures: Risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools.

This article describes principles for developing risk category labels for criterion referenced prediction measures, and demonstrates their utility by creating new risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools. Currently, risk assessments in corrections and forensic mental health are typically summarized in 1 of 3 words: low, moderate, or high. Although these risk labels have strong influence on decision makers, they are interpreted differently across settings, even among trained professionals. The current article provides a framework for standardizing risk communication by matching (a) the information contained in risk tools to (b) a broadly applicable classification of "riskiness" that is independent of any particular offender risk scale. We found that the new, common STATIC risk categories not only increase concordance of risk classification (from 51% to 72%)-they also allow evaluators to make the same inferences for offenders in the same category regardless of which instrument was used to assign category membership. More generally, we argue that the risk categories should be linked to the decisions at hand, and that risk communication can be improved by grounding these risk categories in evidence-based definitions. (PsycINFO Database Record