RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most pharmaceutical clinical trials for inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] are placebo-controlled and require effect size estimation for a drug relative to placebo. We compared expected effect sizes in sample size calculations [SSCs] to actual effect sizes in IBD clinical trials. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL and the Cochrane library were searched from inception to March 26, 2021, to identify placebo-controlled induction studies for luminal Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC] that reported an SSC and a primary endpoint of clinical remission/response. Expected effects were subtracted from actual effects, and interquartile ranges [IQRs] for each corresponding median difference were calculated. Linear regression was used to assess whether placebo or drug event rate misspecifications were responsible for these differences. RESULTS: Of eligible studies, 36.9% [55/149] were excluded because of incomplete SSC reporting, yielding 94 studies [46 CD, 48 UC]. Treatment effects were overestimated in CD for remission (-12.6% [IQR: -16.3 to -1.6%]), in UC for remission (-10.2% [IQR: -16.5 to -5.6%]) and in CD for response (-15.3% [IQR: -27.1 to -5.8%]). Differences observed were due to overestimated drug event rates, whereas expected and actual placebo event rates were similar. A meta-regression demonstrated associations between overestimated treatment effect sizes and several trial characteristics: isolated ileal disease, longer CD duration, extensive colitis [UC], single-centre, phase 2 and no endoscopic endpoint component [UC]. CONCLUSION: Overestimation of IBD therapy efficacy rates resulted in smaller-than-expected treatment effects. These results should be used to inform SSCs and trial design for IBD drug development.
