Estimating the Potential Public Health Value of BCG Revaccination.

An upcoming trial may provide further evidence that adolescent/adult-targeted BCG revaccination prevents sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but its public health value depends on its impact on overall tuberculosis morbidity and mortality, which will remain unknown. Using previously calibrated models for India and South Africa, we simulated BCG revaccination assuming 45% prevention-of-infection efficacy, and we evaluated scenarios varying additional prevention-of-disease efficacy between +50% (reducing risk) and -50% (increasing risk). Given the assumed prevention-of-infection efficacy and range in prevention-of-disease efficacy, BCG revaccination may have a positive health impact and be cost-effective. This may be useful when considering future evaluations and implementation of adolescent/adult BCG revaccination.

Modelling the health and economic impacts ofM72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination: Estimates for South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major public health problem in South Africa, with an estimated 300,000 cases and 55,000 deaths in 2021. New tuberculosis vaccines could play an important role in reducing this burden. Phase IIb trials have suggested efficacy of the M72/AS01E vaccine candidate and BCG-revaccination. The potential population impact of these vaccines is unknown. METHODS: We used an age-stratified transmission model of tuberculosis, calibrated to epidemiological data from South Africa, to estimate the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination. We simulated M72/AS01E vaccination scenarios over the period 2030-2050 and BCG-revaccination scenarios over the period 2025-2050. We explored a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. We calculated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths and costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. FINDINGS: M72/AS01E vaccination may have a larger impact than BCG-revaccination, averting approximately 80% more cases and deaths by 2050. Both vaccines were found to be cost-effective or cost saving (compared to no new vaccine) across a range of vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies from both the health system and societal perspective. The impact of M72/AS01E is dependent on the assumed efficacy of the vaccine in uninfected individuals. Extending BCG-revaccination to HIV-infected individuals on ART increased health impact by approximately 15%, but increased health system costs by approximately 70%. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that M72/AS01E vaccination or BCG-revaccination could be cost-effective in South Africa. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the estimated impact and costs due to uncertainty in vaccine characteristics and the choice of delivery strategy. FUNDING: This work was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-001754). This work used the Cirrus UK National Tier-2 HPC Service at EPCC (https://www.cirrus.ac.uk) funded by the University of Edinburgh and EPSRC (EP/P020267/1).

The potential health and economic impacts of new tuberculosis vaccines under varying delivery strategies in Delhi and Gujarat, India: a modelling study.

Background: India has the largest tuberculosis burden globally, but this burden varies nationwide. All-age tuberculosis prevalence in 2021 ranged from 747/100,000 in Delhi to 137/100,000 in Gujarat. Previous modelling has demonstrated the benefits and costs of introducing novel tuberculosis vaccines in India overall. However, no studies have compared the potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in regions within India with differing tuberculosis disease and infection prevalence. We used mathematical modelling to investigate how the health and economic impact of two potential tuberculosis vaccines, M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination, could differ in Delhi and Gujarat under varying delivery strategies. Methods: We applied a compartmental tuberculosis model separately for Delhi (higher disease and infection prevalence) and Gujarat (lower disease and infection prevalence), and projected epidemiological trends to 2050 assuming no new vaccine introduction. We simulated M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios varying target ages and vaccine characteristics. We estimated cumulative cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years averted between 2025-2050 compared to the no-new-vaccine scenario and compared incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to three cost-effectiveness thresholds. Results: M72/AS01E averted a higher proportion of tuberculosis cases than BCG-revaccination in both regions (Delhi: 16.0% vs 8.3%, Gujarat: 8.5% vs 5.1%) and had higher vaccination costs (Delhi: USD$118 million vs USD$27 million, Gujarat: US$366 million vs US$97 million). M72/AS01E in Delhi could be cost-effective, or even cost-saving, for all modelled vaccine characteristics. M72/AS01E could be cost-effective in Gujarat, unless efficacy was assumed only for those with current infection at vaccination. BCG-revaccination could be cost-effective, or cost-saving, in both regions for all modelled vaccine scenarios. Discussion: M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in Delhi and Gujarat. Differences in impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness between vaccines and regions, were determined partly by differences in disease and infection prevalence, and demography. Age-specific regional estimates of infection prevalence could help to inform delivery strategies for vaccines that may only be effective in people with a particular infection status. Evidence on the mechanism of effect of M72/AS01E and its effectiveness in uninfected individuals, which were important drivers of impact and cost-effectiveness, particularly in Gujarat, are also key to improve estimates of population-level impact.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination.

BACKGROUND: India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS: We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. RESULTS: M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease. CONCLUSIONS: M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on health equity and financial protection in low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: One in two patients developing tuberculosis (TB) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) faces catastrophic household costs. We assessed the potential financial risk protection from introducing novel TB vaccines, and how health and economic benefits would be distributed across income quintiles. METHODS: We modelled the impact of introducing TB vaccines meeting the World Health Organization preferred product characteristics in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the distribution of health gains, patient costs and household financial vulnerability following introduction of an infant vaccine and separately for an adolescent/adult vaccine, compared with a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. Patient-incurred direct and indirect costs of TB disease exceeding 20% of annual household income were defined as catastrophic. RESULTS: Over 2028-2050, the health gains resulting from vaccine introduction were greatest in lower income quintiles, with the poorest 2 quintiles in each country accounting for 56% of total LMIC TB cases averted. Over this period, the infant vaccine was estimated to avert US$5.9 (95% uncertainty interval: US$5.3-6.5) billion in patient-incurred total costs, and the adolescent/adult vaccine was estimated to avert US$38.9 (US$36.6-41.5) billion. Additionally, 3.7 (3.3-4.1) million fewer households were projected to face catastrophic costs with the infant vaccine and 22.9 (21.4-24.5) million with the adolescent/adult vaccine, with 66% of gains accruing in the poorest 2 income quintiles. CONCLUSION: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would reduce income-based inequalities in the health and household economic outcomes of TB in LMICs.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: Modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01 E and BCG-revaccination.

Background India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed Phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies. Methods We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to no-new-vaccine introduction, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. Results M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease. Conclusions M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given unknowns surrounding mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios. METHODS: We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy. FINDINGS: The base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2-51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6-5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6-76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3-8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6-10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9-1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction-at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines-would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up. FUNDING: WHO (2020/985800-0). TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer.

Infectious disease models are widely used by epidemiologists to improve the understanding of transmission dynamics and disease natural history, and to predict the possible effects of interventions. As the complexity of such models increases, however, it becomes increasingly challenging to robustly calibrate them to empirical data. History matching with emulation is a calibration method that has been successfully applied to such models, but has not been widely used in epidemiology partly due to the lack of available software. To address this issue, we developed a new, user-friendly R package hmer to simply and efficiently perform history matching with emulation. In this paper, we demonstrate the first use of hmer for calibrating a complex deterministic model for the country-level implementation of tuberculosis vaccines to 115 low- and middle-income countries. The model was fit to 9-13 target measures, by varying 19-22 input parameters. Overall, 105 countries were successfully calibrated. Among the remaining countries, hmer visualisation tools, combined with derivative emulation methods, provided strong evidence that the models were misspecified and could not be calibrated to the target ranges. This work shows that hmer can be used to simply and rapidly calibrate a complex model to data from over 100 countries, making it a useful addition to the epidemiologist's calibration tool-kit.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.

Hyaluronic Acid-PEG-Based Diels-Alder In Situ Forming Hydrogels for Sustained Intraocular Delivery of Bevacizumab.

Retinal diseases are the leading cause of visual impairment worldwide. The effectiveness of antibodies for the treatment of retinal diseases has been demonstrated. Despite the clinical success, achieving sufficiently high concentrations of these protein therapeutics at the target tissue for an extended period is challenging. Patients suffering from macular degeneration often receive injections once per month. Therefore, there is a growing need for suitable systems that can help reduce the number of injections and adverse effects while improving patient complacency. This study systematically characterized degradable "in situ" forming hydrogels that can be easily injected into the vitreous cavity using a small needle (29G). After intravitreal injection, the formulation is designed to undergo a sol-gel phase transition at the administration site to obtain an intraocular depot system for long-term sustained release of bioactives. A Diels-Alder reaction was exploited to crosslink hyaluronic acid-bearing furan groups (HAFU) with 4 arm-PEG10K-maleimide (4APM), yielding stable hydrogels. Here, a systematic investigation of the effects of polymer composition and the ratio between functional groups on the physicochemical properties of hydrogels was performed to select the most suitable formulation for protein delivery. Rheological analysis showed rapid hydrogel formation, with the fastest gel formation within 5 min after mixing the hydrogel precursors. In this study, the mechanical properties of an ex vivo intravitreally formed hydrogel were investigated and compared to the in vitro fabricated samples. Swelling and degradation studies showed that the hydrogels are biodegradable by the retro-Diels-Alder reaction under physiological conditions. The 4APM-HAFU (ratio 1:5) hydrogel formulation showed sustained release of bevacizumab > 400 days by a combination of diffusion, swelling, and degradation. A bioassay showed that the released bevacizumab remained bioactive. The hydrogel platform described in this study offers high potential for the sustained release of therapeutic antibodies to treat ocular diseases.

Population benefits of addressing programmatic and social determinants of gender disparities in tuberculosis in Viet Nam: A modelling study.

High prevalence of infectious tuberculosis among men suggests potential population-wide benefits from addressing programmatic and social determinants of gender disparities. Utilising a sex-stratified compartmental transmission model calibrated to tuberculosis burden estimates for Viet Nam, we modelled interventions to increase active case finding, to reduce tobacco smoking, and to reduce alcohol consumption by 2025 in line with national and global targets. For each intervention, we examined scenarios differentially targeting men and women and evaluated impact on tuberculosis morbidity and mortality in men, women, and children in 2035. Active case finding interventions targeting men projected greater reductions in tuberculosis incidence in men, women, and children (16.2%, uncertainty interval, UI, 11.4-23.0%, 11.8%, UI 8.0-18.6%, and 21.5%, UI 16.9-28.5%, respectively) than those targeting women (5.2%, UI 3.8-7.1%, 5.4%, UI 3.9-7.3%, and 8.6%, UI 6.9-10.7%, respectively). Projected reductions in tuberculosis incidence for interventions to reduce male tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption were greatest for men (17.4%, UI 11.8-24.7%, and 11.0%, UI 5.4-19.4%, respectively), but still substantial for women (6.9%, UI 3.8-12.5%, and 4.4%, UI 1.9-10.6%, respectively) and children (12.7%, UI 8.4-19.0%, and 8.0%, UI 3.9-15.0%, respectively). Comparable interventions targeting women projected limited impact, with declines of 0.3% (UI 0.2%-0.3%) and 0.1% (UI 0.0%-0.1%), respectively. Addressing programmatic and social determinants of men's tuberculosis burden has population-wide benefits. Future interventions to increase active case finding, to reduce tobacco smoking, and to reduce harmful alcohol consumption, whilst not ignoring women, should focus on men to most effectively reduce tuberculosis morbidity and mortality in men, women, and children.

Cas9 RNP transfection by vapor nanobubble photoporation for ex vivo cell engineering.

The CRISPR-Cas9 technology represents a powerful tool for genome engineering in eukaryotic cells, advancing both fundamental research and therapeutic strategies. Despite the enormous potential of the technology, efficient and direct intracellular delivery of Cas9 ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complexes in target cells poses a significant hurdle, especially in refractive primary cells. In the present work, vapor nanobubble (VNB) photoporation was explored for Cas9 RNP transfection in a variety of cell types. Proof of concept was first demonstrated in H1299-EGFP cells, before proceeding to hard-to-transfect stem cells and T cells. Gene knock-out levels over 80% and up to 60% were obtained for H1299 cells and mesenchymal stem cells, respectively. In these cell types, the unique possibility of VNB photoporation to knock out genes according to user-defined spatial patterns was demonstrated as well. Next, effective targeting of the programmed cell death 1 receptor and Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome gene in primary human T cells was demonstrated, reaching gene knock-out levels of 25% and 34%, respectively. With a throughput of >200,000 T cells per second, VNB photoporation is a scalable and versatile intracellular delivery method that holds great promise for CRISPR-Cas9-mediated ex vivo engineering of cell therapy products.

The burden of skin disease and eye disease due to onchocerciasis in countries formerly under the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control mandate for 1990, 2020, and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis ("river blindness") can cause severe morbidity, including vision loss and various skin manifestations, and is targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). We calculated the number of people with Onchocerca volvulus infection and onchocercal skin and eye disease as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 through to 2030 in areas formerly covered by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control. METHODS: Per MDA implementation unit, we collated data on the pre-control distribution of microfilariae (mf) prevalence and the history of control. Next, we predicted trends in infection and morbidity over time using the ONCHOSIM simulation model. DALY estimates were calculated using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: In 1990, prior to MDA implementation, the total population at risk was 79.8 million with 26.0 million (32.5%) mf-positive individuals, of whom 17.5 million (21.9%) had some form of onchocercal skin or eye disease (2.5 million DALYs lost). By 2030, the total population was predicted to increase to 236.1 million, while the number of mf-positive cases (about 6.8 million, 2.9%), people with skin or eye morbidity (4.2 million, 1.8%), and DALYs lost (0.7 million) were predicted to decline. CONCLUSIONS: MDA has had a remarkable impact on the onchocerciasis burden in countries previously under the APOC mandate. In the few countries where we predict continued transmission between now and 2030, intensified MDA could be combined with local vector control efforts, or the introduction of new drugs for mopping up residual cases of infection and morbidity.

How does onchocerciasis-related skin and eye disease in Africa depend on cumulative exposure to infection and mass treatment?

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis (river-blindness) in Africa is targeted for elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis may cause various types of skin and eye disease. Predicting the impact of MDA on onchocercal morbidity is useful for future policy development. Here, we introduce a new disease module within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict trends over time in prevalence of onchocercal morbidity. METHODS: We developed novel generic model concepts for development of symptoms due to cumulative exposure to dead microfilariae, accommodating both reversible (acute) and irreversible (chronic) symptoms. The model was calibrated to reproduce pre-control age patterns and associations between prevalences of infection, eye disease, and various types of skin disease as observed in a large set of population-based studies. We then used the new disease module to predict the impact of MDA on morbidity prevalence over a 30-year time frame for various scenarios. RESULTS: ONCHOSIM reproduced observed age-patterns in disease and community-level associations between infection and disease reasonably well. For highly endemic settings with 30 years of annual MDA at 60% coverage, the model predicted a 70% to 89% reduction in prevalence of chronic morbidity. This relative decline was similar with higher MDA coverage and only somewhat higher for settings with lower pre-control endemicity. The decline in prevalence was lowest for mild depigmentation and visual impairment. The prevalence of acute clinical manifestations (severe itch, reactive skin disease) declined by 95% to 100% after 30 years of annual MDA, regardless of pre-control endemicity. CONCLUSION: We present generic model concepts for predicting trends in acute and chronic symptoms due to history of exposure to parasitic worm infections, and apply this to onchocerciasis. Our predictions suggest that onchocercal morbidity, in particular chronic manifestations, will remain a public health concern in many epidemiological settings in Africa, even after 30 years of MDA.

Post-loading of proangiogenic growth factors in PLGA microspheres.

Active self-encapsulation (ASE) is a recently developed post-loading method based on absorption of (positively charged) proteins in microporous PLGA microspheres loaded with negatively charged polysaccharides (trapping agents). The aim of this study was to investigate ASE for simultaneous loading and controlled release of multiple growth factors. For this purpose, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), fibroblast growth factor (FGF) and insulin-like growth factor (IGF) were loaded in microspheres containing high molecular weight dextran sulfate (HDS) as trapping agent; loading was performed in a concentrated growth factor solution of low ionic strength and of pH 5 under conditions at which the proteins are positively charged. Subsequent pore closure was induced by incubation of the growth factor-loaded microspheres at 42.5 °C, i.e. above the Tg of (hydrated) PLGA (~30 °C). A 1:1:1 combination of VEGF, FGF and IGF was loaded with high loading (4.3%) and loading efficiency (91%). The in vitro release kinetics and bioactivity of loaded growth factors were studied for 4 weeks using ELISA and an endothelial cell proliferation assay, respectively. While IGF was released quickly, VEGF and FGF were continuously released for 4 weeks in their bioactive form, whereby a growth factor combination had a synergistic angiogenic effect. Therefore, ASE is a suitable method for co-loading growth factors which can provide sustained release profiles of bioactive growth factors, which is attractive for vascularization of biomaterial implants.

π-π-Stacked Poly(ε-caprolactone)-b-poly(ethylene glycol) Micelles Loaded with a Photosensitizer for Photodynamic Therapy.

To improve the in vivo stability of poly(-caprolactone)-b-poly(ethylene glycol) (PCL-PEG)-based micelles and cargo retention by π-π stacking interactions, pendant aromatic rings were introduced by copolymerization of -caprolactone with benzyl 5-methyl-2-oxo-1,3-dioxane-5-carboxylate (TMC-Bz). It was shown that the incorporation of aromatic rings yielded smaller micelles (18-30 nm) with better colloidal stability in PBS than micelles without aromatic groups. The circulation time of i.v. injected micelles containing multiple pendant aromatic groups was longer (t½-α: ~0.7 h; t½-ß: 2.9 h) than that of micelles with a single terminal aromatic group (t½ < 0.3 h). In addition, the in vitro partitioning of the encapsulated photosensitizer (meta-tetra(hydroxyphenyl)chlorin, mTHPC) between micelles and human plasma was favored towards micelles for those that contained the pendant aromatic groups. However, this was not sufficient to fully retain mTHPC in the micelles in vivo, as indicated by similar biodistribution patterns of micellar mTHPC compared to free mTHPC, and unequal biodistribution patterns of mTHPC and the host micelles. Our study points out that more detailed in vitro methods are necessary to more reliably predict in vivo outcomes. Furthermore, additional measures beyond π-π stacking are needed to stably incorporate mTHPC in micelles in order to benefit from the use of micelles as targeted delivery systems.

Structure and Dynamics of Thermosensitive pDNA Polyplexes Studied by Time-Resolved Fluorescence Spectroscopy.

Combining multiple stimuli-responsive functionalities into the polymer design is an attractive approach to improve nucleic acid delivery. However, more in-depth fundamental understanding how the multiple functionalities in the polymer structures are influencing polyplex formation and stability is essential for the rational development of such delivery systems. Therefore, in this study the structure and dynamics of thermosensitive polyplexes were investigated by tracking the behavior of labeled plasmid DNA (pDNA) and polymer with time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy using fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET). The successful synthesis of a heterofunctional poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) macroinitiator containing both an atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) and reversible addition-fragmentation chain-transfer (RAFT) initiator is reported. The use of this novel PEG macroinitiator allows for the controlled polymerization of cationic and thermosensitive linear triblock copolymers and labeling of the chain-end with a fluorescent dye by maleimide-thiol chemistry. The polymers consisted of a thermosensitive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM, N), hydrophilic PEG (P), and cationic poly(2-(dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate) (PDMAEMA, D) block, further referred to as NPD. Polymer block D chain-ends were labeled with Cy3, while pDNA was labeled with FITC. The thermosensitive NPD polymers were used to prepare pDNA polyplexes, and the effect of the N/P charge ratio, temperature, and composition of the triblock copolymer on the polyplex properties were investigated, taking nonthermosensitive PD polymers as the control. FRET was observed both at 4 and 37 °C, indicating that the introduction of the thermosensitive PNIPAM block did not compromise the polyplex structure even above the polymer's cloud point. Furthermore, FRET results showed that the NPD- and PD-based polyplexes have a less dense core compared to polyplexes based on cationic homopolymers (such as PEI) as reported before. The polyplexes showed to have a dynamic character meaning that the polymer chains can exchange between the polyplex core and shell. Mobility of the polymers allow their uniform redistribution within the polyplex and this feature has been reported to be favorable in the context of pDNA release and subsequent improved transfection efficiency, compared to nondynamic formulations.

Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-Releasing Microspheres Based on Poly(ε-Caprolactone-PEG-ε-Caprolactone)-b-Poly(L-Lactide) Multiblock Copolymers Incorporated in a Three-Dimensional Printed Poly(Dimethylsiloxane) Cell Macroencapsulation Device.

Pancreatic islet transplantation is a promising advanced therapy that has been used to treat patients suffering from diabetes type 1. Traditionally, pancreatic islets are infused via the portal vein, which is subsequently intended to engraft in the liver. Severe immunosuppressive treatments are necessary, however, to prevent rejection of the transplanted islets. Novel approaches therefore have focused on encapsulation of the islets in biomaterial implants which can protect the islets and offer an organ-like environment. Vascularization of the device's surface is a prerequisite for the survival and proper functioning of transplanted pancreatic islets. We are pursuing a prevascularization strategy by incorporation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-loaded microspheres in 3-dimensional printed poly(dimethylsiloxane)-based devices prior to their prospective loading with transplanted cells. Microspheres (~50 µm) were based on poly(ε-caprolactone-PEG-ε-caprolactone)-b-poly(L-lactide) multiblock copolymers and were loaded with 10 µg VEGF/mg microspheres, and subsequently dispersed in a hyaluronic acid carrier liquid. In vitro release studies at 37°C demonstrated continuous release of fully bioactive VEGF for 4 weeks. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that incorporation of VEGF-releasing microspheres ensures adequate release of VEGF for a time window of 4 weeks, which is attractive in view of the vascularization of artificial pancreas implants.

Sustained Release of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor from Poly(ε-caprolactone-PEG-ε-caprolactone)-b-Poly(l-lactide) Multiblock Copolymer Microspheres.

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is the major regulating factor for the formation of new blood vessels, also known as angiogenesis. VEGF is often incorporated in synthetic scaffolds to promote vascularization and to enhance the survival of cells that have been seeded in these devices. Such applications require sustained local delivery of VEGF of around 4 weeks for stable blood vessel formation. Most delivery systems for VEGF only provide short-term release for a couple of days, followed by a release phase with very low VEGF release. We now have developed VEGF-loaded polymeric microspheres that provide sustained release of bioactive VEGF for 4 weeks. Blends of two swellable poly(ε-caprolactone)-poly(ethylene glycol)-poly(ε-caprolactone)-b-poly(l-lactide) ([PCL-PEG-PCL]-b-[PLLA])-based multiblock copolymers with different PEG content and PEG molecular weight were used to prepare the microspheres. Loading of the microspheres was established by a solvent evaporation-based membrane emulsification method. The resulting VEGF-loaded microspheres had average sizes of 40-50 µm and a narrow size distribution. Optimized formulations of a 50:50 blend of the two multiblock copolymers had an average VEGF loading of 0.79 ± 0.09%, representing a high average VEGF loading efficiency of 78 ± 16%. These microspheres released VEGF continuously over 4 weeks in phosphate-buffered saline pH 7.4 at 37 °C. This release profile was preserved after repeated and long-term storage at -20 °C for up to 9 months, thereby demonstrating excellent storage stability. VEGF release was governed by diffusion through the water-filled polymer matrix, depending on PEG molecular weight and PEG content of the polymers. The bioactivity of the released VEGF was retained within the experimental error in the 4-week release window, as demonstrated using a human umbilical vein endothelial cells proliferation assay. Thus, the microspheres prepared in this study are suitable for embedment in polymeric scaffolds with the aim of promoting their functional vascularization.