ORTHOPOD: Linking ambulatory future trauma injury distribution from fragility proximal femur fracture caseload.

INTRODUCTION: The age of those experiencing traumatic injury and requiring surgery increases. The majority of this increase seen in older patients having operations after accidents is in fragility proximal femur fractures (FPFF). This study designed a model to predict the distribution of fractures suitable for ambulatory trauma list provision based on the number of FPFF patients. METHODS: The study utilized two datasets which both had data from 64 hospitals. One derived from the ORTHOPOD study dataset, and the other from National Hip Fracture Database. The model tested the predictability of 12 common fracture types based on FPFF data from the two datasets, using linear regression and K-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The predictive model showed some promise. Evaluation of the model with mean RMSE and Std RMSE demonstrated good predictive performance for some fracture types, although the r-squared values showed that large variation in these fracture types was not always captured by the model. The study highlighted the dominance of FPFFs, and the strong correlation between these and numbers of ankle and distal radius fractures at a given unit. DISCUSSION: It is possible to model the numbers of ankle and distal radius fractures based off the number of patients admitted with hip fractures. This has great significance given the drive for increased day case utilisation and bed pressures across health services. While the model's current predictability was limited, with methodological improvements and additional data, a more robust predictive model could be developed to aid in the restructuring of trauma networks and improvement of patient care and surgical outcomes.

The junior doctor changeover effect: does it exist in general surgery?

INTRODUCTION: Junior doctor changeover has been perceived as a period of increased risk to patients. However, there is a paucity of contemporary evidence of this 'changeover effect'. The aim of this study was to evaluate the presence of an adverse patient effect during periods of junior doctor changeover. METHODS: Data were requested on all patients aged 18 years or older admitted acutely under General Surgery in the North of England between 2005 and 2016. This included patient characteristics, diagnoses, comorbidities, procedure codes, mortality and length of stay. Patients were included in the study if they were admitted during the 'changeover week'; defined as the first day of the changeover followed by the six subsequent days. For junior trainees (FY1-CT2), this is the first Wednesday of August, December and April each year. For higher surgical trainees (ST3-ST8), it is the first Wednesday in October. Another week, four weeks prior, was chosen as a historical comparator. RESULTS: In total, 61,714 patients were included in this study. Patient characteristics did not vary between the cohorts. There was no difference in 30-day mortality between changeover and non-changeover groups (2.5% vs 2.6%, p = 0.280) or length of stay (5.3 vs 5.2, p = 0.613). Changeover week was not a predictor of increased mortality (OR 1.06, p = 0.302) following multivariable adjustment. Further analysis of the first junior and higher specialty trainee periods, August and October, respectively, showed no significant difference for measured outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective cohort study provides contemporary evidence that the 'changeover effect' does not exist in acute general surgical admissions in the UK.

Patient Outcomes Following Emergency Bowel Resection for Inflammatory Bowel Disease and the Impact of Surgical Subspecialisation in the North of England: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has changed considerably over recent years, which has coincided with increased subspecialisation amongst general surgeons. This study evaluated the demographics and outcomes of patients with IBD undergoing bowel resection and assessed for the potential impact of surgical subspecialisation. METHODS: Patient demographic, operative and outcome data were collected for patients undergoing a bowel resection secondary to IBD, admitted acutely to NHS trusts in the North of England between 2002 and 2016. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day post-operative mortality, with secondary outcomes: length of stay, stoma and anastomosis rates. RESULTS: A total of 913 patients were included in the study cohort. A reduction in the number of resections was noted over time (2002-2006: 361 vs. 2012-2016: 262). No change was observed for 30-day mortality over the study period (3.9%, p = 0.233). Length of stay was also unchanged (p = 0.949). Laparoscopic surgery was increasingly utilised (0.6% vs. 17.2%, p < 0.001) in recent years, and by colorectal subspecialists (p = 0.003). More patients were managed by a colorectal consultant latterly (2002-2006: 45.4% vs. 2012-2016: 63.7%, p < 0.001). There was no difference between colorectal and other subspecialists in mortality (p = 0.156), length of stay (p = 0.201), stoma (p = 0.629) or anastomosis (p = 0.659) rates, including following multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated a significant reduction in the number of resections over time, increased utilisation of a laparoscopic approach and a shift towards the care of IBD surgical patients being by a colorectal subspecialist. However, these changes do not correspond with improved surgical outcomes.

Perforated diverticulitis in the North of England: trends in patient outcomes, management approach and the influence of subspecialisation.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, several management options have been used in the management of perforated diverticulitis, ranging from conservative treatment to laparotomy. General surgery has also become increasingly specialised over time. This retrospective cohort study investigated changes in patient outcomes following perforated diverticulitis, management approach and the influence of consultant subspecialisation over time. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data was collected on patients admitted with perforated diverticulitis in the North of England between 2002 and 2016. Subspecialisation was categorised as colorectal or other general subspecialties. The primary outcome of interest was overall 30-day mortality; secondary outcomes included surgical approach, stoma and anastomosis rate. RESULTS: A total of 3394 cases of perforated diverticulitis were analysed (colorectal, n = 1290 and other subspecialists, n = 2104) with a 30-day mortality of 11.6%. There was a significant reduction in mortality over time (2002-2006: 18.6% to 2012-2016: 6.8, P < 0.001).There was a significant reduction in open surgery (60% to 25.3%, P < 0.001) with increased conservative management (37.4% to 63.5%, P < 0.001), laparoscopic resection (0.1% to 4.9%, P < 0.001) and laparoscopic washout (0.1% to 5.7%, P < 0.001).Patients admitted under colorectal surgeons had lower mortality than other subspecialists (9.9% vs 12.4%, P = 0.027), which remained significant following multivariate adjustment (hazard ratio 1.44, P = 0.039). These patients had fewer stomas (13.9% vs. 21.0%, P = 0.001) and higher anastomosis rates (22.1% vs 15.8%, P = 0.004). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated considerable improvements in the management of perforated diverticulitis alongside the positive impact of subspecialisation on patient outcomes.

Impact of sea-level rise on cross-shore sediment transport on fetch-limited barrier reef island beaches under modal and cyclonic conditions.

A one-dimensional wave model is combined with an analytical sediment transport model to investigate the likely influence of sea-level rise on net cross-shore sediment transport on fetch-limited barrier reef and lagoon island beaches. The modelling considers if changes in the nearshore wave height and wave period in the lagoon induced by different water levels over the reef flat are likely to lead to net offshore or onshore movement of sediment. The results indicate that the effects of SLR on net sediment movement are highly variable and controlled by the bathymetry of the reef and lagoon. A significant range of reef-lagoon bathymetry, and notably shallow and narrow reefs, appears to lead hydrodynamic conditions and beaches that are likely to be stable or even accrete under SLR. Loss of reef structural complexity, particularly on the reef flat, increases the chance of sediment transport away from beaches and offshore.

Impact of sea-level rise and coral mortality on the wave dynamics and wave forces on barrier reefs.

A one-dimensional wave model was used to investigate the reef top wave dynamics across a large suite of idealized reef-lagoon profiles, representing barrier coral reef systems under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. The modeling shows that the impacts of SLR vary spatially and are strongly influenced by the bathymetry of the reef and coral type. A complex response occurs for the wave orbital velocity and forces on corals, such that the changes in the wave dynamics vary reef by reef. Different wave loading regimes on massive and branching corals also leads to contrasting impacts from SLR. For many reef bathymetries, wave orbital velocities increase with SLR and cyclonic wave forces are reduced for certain coral species. These changes may be beneficial to coral health and colony resilience and imply that predicting SLR impacts on coral reefs requires careful consideration of the reef bathymetry and the mix of coral species.