Modelling and investigating the impacts of climatic variables on ozone concentration in Malaysia using correlation analysis with random forest, decision tree regression, linear regression, and support vector regression.

Climate change is generally known to impact ozone concentration globally. However, the intensity varies across regions and countries. Therefore, local studies are essential to accurately assess the correlation of climate change and ozone concentration in different countries. This study investigates the effects of climatic variables on ozone concentration in Malaysia in order to understand the nexus between climate change and ozone concentration. The selected data was obtained from ten (10) air monitoring stations strategically mounted in urban-industrial and residential areas with significant emissions of pollutants. Correlation analysis and four machine learning algorithms (random forest, decision tree regression, linear regression, and support vector regression) were used to analyze ozone and meteorological dataset in the study area. The analysis was carried out during the southwest monsoon due to the rise of ozone in the dry season. The results show a very strong correlation between temperature and ozone. Wind speed also exhibits a moderate to strong correlation with ozone, while relative humidity is negatively correlated. The highest correlation values were obtained at Bukit Rambai, Nilai, Jaya II Perai, Ipoh, Klang and Petaling Jaya. These locations have high industries and are well urbanized. The four machine learning algorithms exhibit high predictive performances, generally ascertaining the predictive accuracy of the climatic variables. The random forest outperformed other algorithms with a very high R2 of 0.970, low RMSE of 2.737 and MAE of 1.824, followed by linear regression, support vector regression and decision tree regression, respectively. This study's outcome indicates a linkage between temperature and wind speed with ozone concentration in the study area. An increase of these variables will likely increase the ozone concentration posing threats to lives and the environment. Therefore, this study provides data-driven insights for decision-makers and other stakeholders in ensuring good air quality for sustainable cities and communities. It also serves as a guide for the government for necessary climate actions to reduce the effect of climate change on air pollution and enabling sustainable cities in accordance with the UN's SDGs 13 and 11, respectively.

GIS-based air quality modelling: spatial prediction of PM10 for Selangor State, Malaysia using machine learning algorithms.

Rapid urbanization has caused severe deterioration of air quality globally, leading to increased hospitalization and premature deaths. Therefore, accurate prediction of air quality is crucial for mitigation planning to support urban sustainability and resilience. Although some studies have predicted air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM) using machine learning algorithms (MLAs), there is a paucity of studies on spatial hazard assessment with respect to the air quality index (AQI). Incorporating PM in AQI studies is crucial because of its easily inhalable micro-size which has adverse impacts on ecology, environment, and human health. Accurate and timely prediction of the air quality index can ensure adequate intervention to aid air quality management. Therefore, this study undertakes a spatial hazard assessment of the air quality index using particulate matter with a diameter of 10 µm or lesser (PM10) in Selangor, Malaysia, by developing four machine learning models: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), and Naive Bayes (NB). Spatially processed data such as NDVI, SAVI, BU, LST, Ws, slope, elevation, and road density was used for the modelling. The model was trained with 70% of the dataset, while 30% was used for cross-validation. Results showed that XGBoost has the highest overall accuracy and precision of 0.989 and 0.995, followed by random forest (0.989, 0.993), K-nearest neighbour (0.987, 0.984), and Naive Bayes (0.917, 0.922), respectively. The spatial air quality maps were generated by integrating the geographical information system (GIS) with the four MLAs, which correlated with Malaysia's air pollution index. The maps indicate that air quality in Selangor is satisfactory and posed no threats to health. Nevertheless, the two algorithms with the best performance (XGBoost and RF) indicate that a high percentage of the air quality is moderate. The study concludes that successful air pollution management policies such as green infrastructure practice, improvement of energy efficiency, and restrictions on heavy-duty vehicles can be adopted in Selangor and other Southeast Asian cities to prevent deterioration of air quality in the future.

Impacts of COVID-19 and social isolation on academic staff and students at universities: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: "The impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the shutdown it triggered at universities across the world, led to a great degree of social isolation among university staff and students. The aim of this study was to identify the perceived consequences of this on staff and their work and on students and their studies at universities. METHOD: The study used a variety of methods, which involved an on-line survey on the influences of social isolation using a non-probability sampling. More specifically, two techniques were used, namely a convenience sampling (i.e. involving members of the academic community, which are easy to reach by the study team), supported by a snow ball sampling (recruiting respondents among acquaintances of the participants). A total of 711 questionnaires from 41 countries were received. Descriptive statistics were deployed to analyse trends and to identify socio-demographic differences. Inferential statistics were used to assess significant differences among the geographical regions, work areas and other socio-demographic factors related to impacts of social isolation of university staff and students. RESULTS: The study reveals that 90% of the respondents have been affected by the shutdown and unable to perform normal work or studies at their institution for between 1 week to 2 months. While 70% of the respondents perceive negative impacts of COVID 19 on their work or studies, more than 60% of them value the additional time that they have had indoors with families and others. . CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of the respondents agree that they suffered from the lack of social interaction and communication during the social distancing/isolation, there were significant differences in the reactions to the lockdowns between academic staff and students. There are also differences in the degree of influence of some of the problems, when compared across geographical regions. In addition to policy actions that may be deployed, further research on innovative methods of teaching and communication with students is needed in order to allow staff and students to better cope with social isolation in cases of new or recurring pandemics.

Demystifying uncertainty in PM10 susceptibility mapping using variable drop-off in extreme-gradient boosting (XGB) and random forest (RF) algorithms.

This study investigates uncertainty in machine learning that can occur when there is significant variance in the prediction importance level of the independent variables, especially when the ROC fails to reflect the unbalanced effect of prediction variables. A variable drop-off loop function, based on the concept of early termination for reduction of model capacity, regularization, and generalization control, was tested. A susceptibility index for airborne particulate matter of less than 10 µm diameter (PM10) was modeled using monthly maximum values and spectral bands and indices from Landsat 8 imagery, and Open Street Maps were used to prepare a range of independent variables. Probability and classification index maps were prepared using extreme-gradient boosting (XGBOOST) and random forest (RF) algorithms. These were assessed against utility criteria such as a confusion matrix of overall accuracy, quantity of variables, processing delay, degree of overfitting, importance distribution, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).

The influence of ecosystems services depletion to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa.

Climate change is one of the major challenges societies round the world face at present. Apart from efforts to achieve a reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases so as to mitigate the problem, there is a perceived need for adaptation initiatives urgently. Ecosystems are known to play an important role in climate change adaptation processes, since some of the services they provide, may reduce the impacts of extreme events and disturbance, such as wildfires, floods, and droughts. This role is especially important in regions vulnerable to climate change such as the African continent, whose adaptation capacity is limited by many geographic and socio-economic constraints. In Africa, interventions aimed at enhancing ecosystem services may play a key role in supporting climate change adaptation efforts. In order to shed some light on this aspect, this paper reviews the role of ecosystems services and investigates how they are being influenced by climate change in Africa. It contains a set of case studies from a sample of African countries, which serve the purpose to demonstrate the damages incurred, and how such damages disrupt ecosystem services. Based on the data gathered, some measures which may assist in fostering the cause of ecosystems services are listed, so as to cater for a better protection of some of the endangered Africa ecosystems, and the services they provide.

Oil spill trajectory modelling and environmental vulnerability mapping using GNOME model and GIS.

This study develops an oil spill environmental vulnerability model for predicting and mapping the oil slick trajectory pattern in Kota Tinggi, Malaysia. The impact of seasonal variations on the vulnerability of the coastal resources to oil spill was modelled by estimating the quantity of coastal resources affected across three climatic seasons (northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and pre-monsoon). Twelve 100 m3 (10,000 splots) medium oil spill scenarios were simulated using General National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Operational Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) model. The output was integrated with coastal resources, comprising biological, socio-economic and physical shoreline features. Results revealed that the speed of an oil slick (40.8 m per minute) is higher during the pre-monsoon period in a southwestern direction and lower during the northeast monsoon (36.9 m per minute). Evaporation, floating and spreading are the major weathering processes identified in this study, with approximately 70% of the slick reaching the shoreline or remaining in the water column during the first 24 h (h) of the spill. Oil spill impacts were most severe during the southwest monsoon, and physical shoreline resources are the most vulnerable to oil spill in the study area. The study concluded that variation in climatic seasons significantly influence the vulnerability of coastal resources to marine oil spill.

Spatial identification and temporal prediction of air pollution sources using conditional bivariate probability function and time series signature.

Accurate identification of distant, large, and frequent sources of emission in cities is a complex procedure due to the presence of large-sized pollutants and the existence of many land use types. This study aims to simplify and optimize the visualization mechanism of long time-series of air pollution data, particularly for urban areas, which is naturally correlated in time and spatially complicated to analyze. Also, we elaborate different sources of pollution that were hitherto undetectable using ordinary plot models by leveraging recent advances in ensemble statistical approaches. The high performing conditional bivariate probability function (CBPF) and time-series signature were integrated within the R programming environment to facilitate the study's analysis. Hourly air pollution data for the period between 2007 to 2016 is collected using four air quality stations, (ca0016, ca0058, ca0054, and ca0025), situated in highly urbanized locations that are characterized by complex land use and high pollution emitting activities. A conditional bivariate probability function (CBPF) was used to analyze the data, utilizing pollutant concentration values such as Sulfur dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen oxides (NO2), Carbon monoxide (CO) and Particulate Matter (PM10) as a third variable plotted on the radial axis, with wind direction and wind speed variables. Generalized linear model (GLM) and sensitivity analysis are applied to verify and visualize the relationship between Air Pollution Index (API) of PM10 and other significant pollutants of GML outputs based on quantile values. To address potential future challenges, we forecast 3 months PM10 values using a Time Series Signature statistical algorithm with time functions and validated the outcome in the 4 stations. Analysis of results reveals that sources emitting PM10 have similar activities producing other pollutants (SO2, CO, and NO2). Therefore, these pollutants can be detected by cross selection between the pollution sources in the affected city. The directional results of CBPF plot indicate that ca0058 and ca0054 enable easier detection of pollutants' sources in comparison to ca0016 and ca0025 due to being located on the edge of industrial areas. This study's CBPF technique and time series signature analysis' outcomes are promising, successfully elaborating different sources of pollution that were hitherto undetectable using ordinary plot models and thus contribute to existing air quality assessment and enhancement mechanisms.

Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries.

Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate.

Plastic debris on Pacific Islands: Ecological and health implications.

Plastic debris is a worldwide problem. This is particularly acute in the Pacific region, where its scale is a reason for serious concerns. There is an obvious need for studies to assess the extent to which plastic debris affects the Pacific. Therefore, this research aims to address this need by undertaking a systematic assessment of the ecological and health impacts of plastic debris on Pacific islands. Using pertinent historical qualitative and quantitative data of the distribution of plastic debris in the region, this study identified pollution and contamination trends and risks to ecosystems, and suggests some measures which may be deployed to address the identified problems. The study illustrates the fact that Pacific Island States are being disproportionately affected by plastic, and reiterates that further studies and integrated strategies are needed, involving public education and empowerment, governmental action, as well as ecologically sustainable industry leadership. It is also clear that more research is needed in respect of developing alternatives to conventional plastic, by the production of bio-plastic, i.e. plastic which is produced from natural (e.g. non-fossil fuel-based sources) materials, and which can be fully biodegradable.