An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi.

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Prospective cohort study of referred Malawian children and their survival by hypoxaemia and hypoglycaemia status.

Objective: To investigate survival in children referred from primary care in Malawi, with a focus on hypoglycaemia and hypoxaemia progression. Methods: The study involved a prospective cohort of children aged 12 years or under referred from primary health-care facilities in Mchinji district, Malawi in 2019 and 2020. Peripheral blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) and blood glucose were measured at recruitment and on arrival at a subsequent health-care facility (i.e. four hospitals and 14 primary health-care facilities). Children were followed up 2 weeks after discharge or their last clinical visit. The primary study outcome was the case fatality ratio at 2 weeks. Associations between SpO2 and blood glucose levels and death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and the treatment effect of hospitalization was assessed using propensity score matching. Findings: Of 826 children recruited, 784 (94.9%) completed follow-up. At presentation, hypoxaemia was moderate (SpO2: 90-93%) in 13.1% (108/826) and severe (SpO2: < 90%) in 8.6% (71/826) and hypoglycaemia was moderate (blood glucose: 2.5-4.0 mmol/L) in 9.0% (74/826) and severe (blood glucose: < 2.5 mmol/L) in 2.3% (19/826). The case fatality ratio was 3.7% (29/784) overall but 26.3% (5/19) in severely hypoglycaemic children and 12.7% (9/71) in severely hypoxaemic children. Neither moderate hypoglycaemia nor moderate hypoxaemia was associated with mortality. Conclusion: Presumptive pre-referral glucose treatment and better management of hypoglycaemia could reduce the high case fatality ratio observed in children with severe hypoglycaemia. The morbidity and mortality burden of severe hypoxaemia was high; ways of improving hypoxaemia identification and management are needed.

Hypoxemia, hypoglycemia and IMCI danger signs in pediatric outpatients in Malawi.

Hypoxemia and hypoglycemia are known risks for mortality in children in low-income settings. Routine screening with pulse oximetry and blood glucose assessments for outpatients could assist in early identification of high-risk children. We assessed the prevalence of hypoglycemia and hypoxemia, and the overlap with Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) general danger signs, among children seeking outpatient care in Malawi. A cross-sectional study was conducted at 14 government primary care facilities, four rural hospitals and one district referral hospital in Mchinji district, Malawi from August 2019-April 2020. All children aged 0-12 years seeking care with an acute illness were assessed on one day per month in each facility. Study research assistants measured oxygen saturation using Lifebox LB-01 pulse oximeter and blood glucose was assessed with AccuCheck Aviva glucometers. World Health Organization definitions were used for severe hypoglycemia (<2.5mmol/l) and hypoxemia (SpO2 <90%). Moderate hypoglycemia (2.5-4.0mmol/l) and hypoxemia (SpO2 90-93%) were also calculated and prevalence levels compared between those with and without IMCI danger signs using chi2 tests. In total 2,943 children were enrolled, with a median age of 41 (range: 0-144) months. The prevalence of severe hypoxemia was 0.6% and moderate hypoxemia 5.4%. Severe hypoglycemia was present in 0.1% of children and moderate hypoglycemia in 11.1%. IMCI general danger signs were present in 29.3% of children. All severely hypoglycemic children presented with an IMCI danger sign (p <0.001), but only 23.5% of the severely hypoxemic and 31.7% of the moderately hypoxemic children. We conclude that while the prevalence of severe hypoxemia and hypoglycemia were low, moderate levels were not uncommon and could potentially be useful as an objective tool to determine referral needs. IMCI danger signs identified hypoglycemic children, but results highlight the challenge to detect hypoxemia. Future studies should explore case management strategies for moderate hypoxemia and hypoglycemia.

Participation of young women in sexual and reproductive health decision-making in Malawi: Local realities versus global rhetoric.

Despite the global prioritization of addressing adolescent girls' and young women's sexual and reproductive health (SRH) and participatory rights, little research has examined their lived experiences in shaping their engagement in SRH decision-making processes in the global South. Further, few studies have explored how structural and societal factors influence their agency and participation. This critical and focused ethnography, informed by postcolonial feminist and difference-centred citizenship theories, conducted in Malawi (2017-2018) elicited perspectives of youth and key informants to help address these knowledge gaps. Our findings show that the effective implementation and uptake of global discourse on participation and gender equity is hindered by inadequate consideration of girls' and young women's local political, cultural and social realities. Many girls and young women demonstrate passion to participate in SRH policymaking as agents of change. However, patriarchal and gerontocratic political and social structures/institutions, and gendered and adultist norms and practices limit their active and meaningful participation in SRH decision-making. In addition, donors' roles in SRH policymaking and their prioritization of the "girl child" highlight an enduring postcolonial power over agenda-setting processes. Understanding young people's experiences of gendered participation and scrutinizing underlying systemic forces are critical steps toward realizing young women's SRH and participatory rights.

Prospective cohort study of referred Malawian children and their survival by hypoxaemia and hypoglycaemia status

Objective To investigate survival in children referred from primary care in Malawi, with a focus on hypoglycaemia and hypoxaemia progression. Methods The study involved a prospective cohort of children aged 12 years or under referred from primary health-care facilities in Mchinji district, Malawi in 2019 and 2020. Peripheral blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) and blood glucose were measured at recruitment and on arrival at a subsequent health-care facility (i.e. four hospitals and 14 primary health-care facilities). Children were followed up 2 weeks after discharge or their last clinical visit. The primary study outcome was the case fatality ratio at 2 weeks. Associations between SpO2 and blood glucose levels and death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and the treatment effect of hospitalization was assessed using propensity score matching. Findings Of 826 children recruited, 784 (94.9%) completed follow-up. At presentation, hypoxaemia was moderate (SpO2: 90­93%) in 13.1% (108/826) and severe (SpO2: < 90%) in 8.6% (71/826) and hypoglycaemia was moderate (blood glucose: 2.5­4.0 mmol/L) in 9.0% (74/826) and severe (blood glucose: < 2.5 mmol/L) in 2.3% (19/826). The case fatality ratio was 3.7% (29/784) overall but 26.3% (5/19) in severely hypoglycaemic children and 12.7% (9/71) in severely hypoxaemic children. Neither moderate hypoglycaemia nor moderate hypoxaemia was associated with mortality. Conclusion Presumptive pre-referral glucose treatment and better management of hypoglycaemia could reduce the high case fatality ratio observed in children with severe hypoglycaemia. The morbidity and mortality burden of severe hypoxaemia was high; ways of improving hypoxaemia identification and management are needed.

Paediatric Emergency Triage, Assessment and Treatment (ETAT) - preparedness for implementation at primary care facilities in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The majority of deaths amongst children under 5 years are still due to preventable infectious causes. Emergency care has been identified as a key health system weakness, and referrals are often challenging. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish how prepared frontline facilities in Malawi are to implement WHO Emergency Triage Assessment and Treatment (ETAT) guidelines, to support policy and planning decisions. METHODS: We conducted a concurrent mixed-methods study, including facility audit; healthcare provider survey; focus group discussions (FGD) and semi-structured interviews with facility staff. The study was conducted in two districts in Malawi, Zomba and Mchinji, between January and May 2019. We included all frontline facilities, including dispensaries, primary health centres, rural and community hospitals. Quantitative data were described using proportions, means and linear regression. Qualitative data was analysed using a framework approach. Data were analysed separately and then triangulated into common themes. RESULTS: Forty-seven facilities and 531 healthcare providers were included in the audit and survey; 6 FGDs and 5 interviews were completed. Four common themes emerged: (1) current emergency case management; (2) referral practices; (3) trained staff capacity; (4) opportunities and barriers for ETAT. Triage was conducted in most facilities with various methods described, and 53% reporting all staff are responsible. Referrals were common, but challenging due to issues in transportation. Twelve percent of survey respondents had ETAT training, with clinical officers (41%) reporting this more frequently than other cadres. Training was associated with increased knowledge, independent of cadre. The main barriers to ETAT implementation were the lack of resources, but opportunities to improve quality of care were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Malawian frontline facilities are already providing a level of emergency paediatric care, but issues in training, drug supplies and equipment were present. To effectively scale-up ETAT, policies need to include supply chain management, maintenance and strengthening referral communication.

Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI): a mixed-methods study on implementation, knowledge and resource availability in Malawi.

Background: The introduction of the WHO's Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) guidelines in the mid-1990s contributed to global reductions in under-five mortality. However, issues in quality of care have been reported. We aimed to determine resource availability and healthcare worker knowledge of IMCI guidelines in two districts in Malawi. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study, including health facility audits to record availability and functionality of essential IMCI equipment and availability of IMCI drugs, healthcare provider survey and focus group discussions (FGDs) with facility staff. The study was conducted between January and April 2019 in Mchinji (central region) and Zomba (southern region) districts. Quantitative data were described using proportions and χ2 tests; linear regression was conducted to explore factors associated with IMCI knowledge. Qualitative data were analysed using a pragmatic framework approach. Qualitative and quantitative data were analysed and presented separately. Results: Forty-seven health facilities and 531 healthcare workers were included. Lumefantrine-Artemether and cotrimoxazole were the most available drugs (98% and 96%); while amoxicillin tablets and salbutamol nebuliser solution were the least available (28% and 36%). Respiratory rate timers were the least available piece of equipment, with only 8 (17%) facilities having a functional device. The mean IMCI knowledge score was 3.96 out of 10, and there was a statistically significant association between knowledge and having received refresher training (coeff: 0.42; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.82). Four themes were identified in the FGDs: IMCI implementation and practice, barriers to IMCI, benefits of IMCI and sustainability. Conclusion: We found key gaps in IMCI implementation; however, these were not homogenous across facilities, suggesting opportunities to learn from locally adapted IMCI best practices. Improving on-going mentorship, training and supervision should be explored to improve quality of care, and programming which moves away from vertical financing with short-term support, to a more holistic approach with embedded sustainability may address the balance of resources for different conditions.

Participatory learning and action cycles with women's groups to prevent neonatal death in low-resource settings: A multi-country comparison of cost-effectiveness and affordability.

WHO recommends participatory learning and action cycles with women's groups as a cost-effective strategy to reduce neonatal deaths. Coverage is a determinant of intervention effectiveness, but little is known about why cost-effectiveness estimates vary significantly. This article reanalyses primary cost data from six trials in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Malawi to describe resource use, explore reasons for differences in costs and cost-effectiveness ratios, and model the cost of scale-up. Primary cost data were collated, and costing methods harmonized. Effectiveness was extracted from a meta-analysis and converted to neonatal life-years saved. Cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated from the provider perspective compared with current practice. Associations between unit costs and cost-effectiveness ratios with coverage, scale and intensity were explored. Scale-up costs and outcomes were modelled using local unit costs and the meta-analysis effect estimate for neonatal mortality. Results were expressed in 2016 international dollars. The average cost was $203 (range: $61-$537) per live birth. Start-up costs were large, and spending on staff was the main cost component. The cost per neonatal life-year saved ranged from $135 to $1627. The intervention was highly cost-effective when using income-based thresholds. Variation in cost-effectiveness across trials was strongly correlated with costs. Removing discounting of costs and life-years substantially reduced all cost-effectiveness ratios. The cost of rolling out the intervention to rural populations ranges from 1.2% to 6.3% of government health expenditure in the four countries. Our analyses demonstrate the challenges faced by economic evaluations of community-based interventions evaluated using a cluster randomized controlled trial design. Our results confirm that women's groups are a cost-effective and potentially affordable strategy for improving birth outcomes among rural populations.

Cost-effectiveness and affordability of community mobilisation through women's groups and quality improvement in health facilities (MaiKhanda trial) in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the cost-effectiveness and affordability of interventions to reduce maternal and newborn deaths is critical to persuading policymakers and donors to implement at scale. The effectiveness of community mobilisation through women's groups and health facility quality improvement, both aiming to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality, was assessed by a cluster randomised controlled trial conducted in rural Malawi in 2008-2010. In this paper, we calculate intervention cost-effectiveness and model the affordability of the interventions at scale. METHODS: Bayesian methods are used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the community and facility interventions on their own (CI, FI), and together (FICI), compared to current practice in rural Malawi. Effects are estimated with Monte Carlo simulation using the combined full probability distributions of intervention effects on stillbirths, neonatal deaths and maternal deaths. Cost data was collected prospectively from a provider perspective using an ingredients approach and disaggregated at the intervention (not cluster or individual) level. Expected Incremental Benefit, Cost-effectiveness Acceptability Curves and Expected Value of Information (EVI) were calculated using a threshold of $780 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, the per capita gross domestic product of Malawi in 2013 international $. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness of CI, FI, and combined FICI was $79, $281, and $146 per DALY averted respectively, compared to current practice. FI is dominated by CI and FICI. Taking into account uncertainty, both CI and combined FICI are highly likely to be cost effective (probability 98% and 93%, EVI $210,423 and $598,177 respectively). Combined FICI is incrementally cost effective compared to either intervention individually (probability 60%, ICER $292, EIB $9,334,580 compared to CI). Future scenarios also found FICI to be the optimal decision. Scaling-up to the whole of Malawi, CI is of greatest value for money, potentially averting 13.0% of remaining annual DALYs from stillbirths, neonatal and maternal deaths for the equivalent of 6.8% of current annual expenditure on maternal and neonatal health in Malawi. CONCLUSIONS: Community mobilisation through women's groups is a highly cost-effective and affordable strategy to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in Malawi. Combining community mobilisation with health facility quality improvement is more effective, more costly, but also highly cost-effective and potentially affordable in this context.