Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. METHODS: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010-11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25-74years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3-14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6-25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6-35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%-11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9-8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3-7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7-5.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies.

Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Poland--the NATPOL 2011 Study.

AIMS: The aim of the analysis was to assess the prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Poland. METHODS: A questionnaire survey on a representative sample of 2411 Polish adults, complemented by blood pressure, anthropometric and fasting plasma glucose measurements. The research was part of the national cross-sectional NATPOL 2011 Study. Diabetes was assessed as self-reported (diagnosed) or screened (fasting plasma glucose level ≥ 7 mmol/l, based on one blood draw). RESULTS: Total prevalence of diabetes in 2011 was 6.7% (95% CI 5.6-7.9); 6.4% (95% CI 5.0-8.0) in women and 7.0% (95% CI 5.4-8.8) in men and did not change from 2002 (6.8%, 95% CI 95% CI 5.8-7.9). Over one quarter of individuals with diabetes were not aware of having the condition. Obesity, arterial hypertension and male gender were strong predictors of screened diabetes. Total prevalence of impaired fasting glucose in the surveyed population was 15.6% (95% CI 14.0-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of diabetes in Poland is similar to that observed in other European populations and has not changed over the last decade. The fact that every fourth person with diabetes is unaware of the disease creates important opportunities for screening and detection of the disease.

Arterial hypertension in Poland in 2002.

Arterial hypertension represents a serious medical, social and economic problem in Poland. Owing to a small number of studies concerning HT epidemiology in Poland and large differences in methodology, it is difficult to make an objective verification of the changes regarding principal parameters in our country within the last decade. Important programme for the assessment of the situation in our country is NATPOL PLUS, carried out in the year 2002 on a representative sample of 3051 adult Polish residents aged between 18 and 93 years, using the current diagnostic criteria for arterial hypertension (blood pressure readings obtained at three separate visits in cases of newly detected HT, different cuff sizes for different arm circumference, age range 18-93 years, rejection of first measurement during initial screening visit). Prevalence of HT in Poland is 29%, awareness-67%, and effectiveness of treatment-12%. This means that while HT affects about 8.4 million adult Poles, only 1 million of them get effective treatment. Moreover, as much as 8.7 million Poles have high normal blood pressure and they should apply active prevention. The awareness, detection and control of hypertension is much worse in men than in women. A series of NATPOL studies indicated over the period 1994-2002 a significant and rapid decrease in the awareness of one's own blood pressure among the adult Polish population, especially in small towns and villages, among less educated people, and in males.