Impact of in utero airborne lead exposure on long-run adult socio-economic outcomes: A population analysis using U.S. survey and administrative data.

As a neurotoxin, early exposure to lead has long been assumed to affect socioeconomic outcomes well into adulthood. However, the empirical literature documenting such effects has been limited. This study documents the long-term effects of in utero exposure to air lead on adult socio-economic outcomes, including real earnings, disabilities, employment, public assistance, and education, using US survey and administrative data. Specifically, we match individuals in the 2000 US Decennial Census and 2001-2014 American Community Surveys to average lead concentrations in the individual's birth county during his/her 9 months in utero. We then estimate the effects of shocks to airborne lead conditional on observable characteristics, county fixed effects, county-specific time trends, and month-year fixed effects. We find a 0.5 µg/m3 decrease in air lead, representing the average 1975-85 change resulting from the passage of the U.S. Clean Air Act, is associated with an increase in earnings of 3.5%, or a present value, at birth, of $21,400 in lifetime earnings. Decomposing this effect, we find greater exposure to lead in utero is associated with an increase in disabilities in adulthood, an increase in receiving public assistance, and a decrease in employment. Looking at effects by sex, long-term effects for girls seem to fall on participation in the formal labor market, whereas for boys it appears to fall more on hours worked. This is the first study to document such long-term effects from lead using US data. We estimate the present value in 2020, from all earnings impacts from 1975 forward, to be $4.23 Trillion using a discount rate of 3%. In 2020 alone, the benefits are $252 B, or about 1.2% of GDP. Thus, our estimates imply the Clean Air Act's lead phase out is still returning a national dividend of over 1% every year.

Policy Analysis: Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we estimate the economic value of ecological benefits from new air pollution policies in the Southern Appalachian ecosystem. Our results indicate that these policies generate aggregate benefits of about $3.7 billion, or about $16 per year per household in the region. The study provides currently missing information about the ecological benefits from air pollution policies that is needed to evaluate such policies comprehensively. More broadly, the study also illustrates how integrated biogeochemical and economic assessments of multidimensional ecosystems can evaluate the relative benefits of different policy options that vary by scale and across ecosystem attributes.

Benefits of the ballot box for species conservation.

Recent estimates reaffirm that conservation funds are insufficient to meet biodiversity conservation goals. Organisations focused on biodiversity conservation therefore need to capitalise on investments that societies make in environmental protection that provide ancillary benefits to biodiversity. Here, we undertake the first assessment of the potential ancillary benefits from the ballot box in the United States, where citizens vote on referenda to conserve lands for reasons that may not include biodiversity directly but that indirectly might enhance biodiversity conservation. Our results suggest that referenda occur in counties with significantly greater biodiversity than counties chosen at random. We also demonstrate that large potential gains for conservation are possible if the past and likely future outcomes of these ballot box measures are directly incorporated into national-scale conservation planning efforts. The possible synergies between ballot box measures and other biodiversity conservation efforts offer an under-utilised resource for supporting conservation.