Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only). PARTICIPANTS: 21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates. RESULTS: 1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals.

Utility of a buccal swab point-of-care test for the IFNL4 genotype in the era of direct acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus.

BACKGROUND: The CC genotype of the IFNL4 gene is known to be associated with increased Hepatitis C (HCV) cure rates with interferon-based therapy and may contribute to cure with direct acting antivirals. The Genedrive® IFNL4 is a CE marked Point of Care (PoC) molecular diagnostic test, designed for in vitro diagnostic use to provide rapid, real-time detection of IFNL4 genotype status for SNP rs12979860. METHODS: 120 Participants were consented to a substudy comparing IFNL4 genotyping results from a buccal swab analysed on the Genedrive® platform with results generated using the Affymetix UK Biobank array considered to be the gold standard. RESULTS: Buccal swabs were taken from 120 participants for PoC IFNL4 testing and a whole blood sample for genetic sequencing. Whole blood genotyping vs. buccal swab PoC testing identified 40 (33%), 65 (54%), and 15 (13%) had CC, CT and TT IFNL4 genotype respectively. The Buccal swab PoC identified 38 (32%) CC, 64 (53%) CT and 18 (15%) TT IFNL4 genotype respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the buccal swab test to detect CC vs non-CC was 90% (95% CI 76-97%) and 98% (95% CI 91-100%) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The buccal swab test was better at correctly identifying non-CC genotypes than CC genotypes. The high specificity of the Genedrive® assay prevents CT/TT genotypes being mistaken for CC, and could avoid patients being identified as potentially 'good responders' to interferon-based therapy.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm.

AIMS: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata. METHODS: Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging). RESULTS: 22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38). CONCLUSION: Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

Characterisation of a Hepatitis C Virus Subtype 2a Cluster in Scottish PWID with a Suboptimal Response to Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir Treatment.

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have revolutionised the treatment of Hepatitis C virus (HCV), allowing the World Health Organisation (WHO) to set a target of eliminating HCV by 2030. In this study we aimed to investigate glecaprevir and pibrentasvir (GP) treatment outcomes in a cohort of patients with genotype 2a infection. METHODS: Clinical data and plasma samples were collected in NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde. Next generation whole genome sequencing and replicon assays were carried out at the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research. RESULTS: 132 cases infected with genotype 2a HCV were identified. The SVR rate for this group was 91% (112/123) following treatment with GP. An NS5A polymorphism, L31M, was detected in all cases of g2a infection, and L31M+R353K in individuals that failed treatment. The results showed that R353K was present in 90% of individuals in the Glasgow genotype 2a phylogenetic cluster but in less than 5% of all HCV subtype 2a published sequences. In vitro efficacy of pibrentasvir against sub-genomic replicon constructs containing these mutations showed a 2-fold increase in IC50 compared to wildtype. CONCLUSION: This study describes a cluster of HCV genotype 2a infection associated with a lower-than-expected SVR rate following GP treatment in association with the NS5A mutations L31M+R353K.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Quality standards for the management of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): consensus recommendations from the British Association for the Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology NAFLD Special Interest Group.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is common, affecting approximately 25% of the general population. The evidence base for the investigation and management of NAFLD is large and growing, but there is currently little practical guidance to support development of services and delivery of care. To address this, we produced a series of evidence-based quality standard recommendations for the management of NAFLD, with the aim of improving patient care. A multidisciplinary group of experts from the British Association for the Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology NAFLD Special Interest Group produced the recommendations, which cover: management of people with, or at risk of, NAFLD before the gastroenterology or liver clinic; assessment and investigations in secondary care; and management in secondary care. The quality of evidence for each recommendation was evaluated by the Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation tool. An anonymous modified Delphi voting process was conducted individually by each member of the group to assess the level of agreement with each statement. Statements were included when agreement was 80% or greater. From the final list of statements, a smaller number of auditable key performance indicators were selected to allow services to benchmark their practice. It is hoped that services will review their practice against our recommendations and key performance indicators and institute service development where needed to improve the care of patients with NAFLD.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.

The association between deprivation and the incidence and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the West of Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: This study set out to examine the association between deprivation and the incidence of HCC and survival following diagnosis in the West of Scotland. METHODS: Data were gathered on patients from the prospective West of Scotland regional HCC database from November 2014 to August 2017. Patients were included if they had a new diagnosis of HCC. Data on deprivation were taken from the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2016. RESULTS: 357 patients were included in the study. There was a higher incidence rate in patients in SIMD quintile 1 (most deprived) compared with quintile 5 (least deprived) (8.4 vs 4.3 per 100,000, respectively, p < 0.0002). There was no difference in stage at diagnosis, treatment intent, or survival, between patients in the most deprived and least deprived quintiles (median survival 368 days vs 325 days, p = 0.8). CONCLUSION: Living in the most deprived areas of the West of Scotland was associated with approximately a twofold increase in the incidence of HCC. However, in contrast to previous research, there was no difference in survival following diagnosis between patients living in the most and least deprived areas.

The Value of Quantitative Faecal Immunochemical Testing as a Prioritisation Tool for the Endoscopic Investigation of Patients With Iron Deficiency.

Difficulty in providing endoscopy for patients with iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the requirement for a prioritisation tool. We aimed to test the validity of qFIT as a prioritisation tool in patients with iron deficiency and its ability to identify patients with advanced neoplastic lesions (ANLs). Data collected from patients referred with biochemically proven iron deficiency (ferritin ≤ 15 µg/L) and synchronous qFIT who underwent full gastrointestinal investigation within NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde was analysed retrospectively. Patients who did not undergo full investigation, defined as gastroscopy and colonoscopy or CT colonography, were excluded. ANLs were defined as defined as upper GI cancer, colorectal adenoma ≥ 1 cm or colorectal cancer. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed on qFIT results and outcome, defined as the presence of an ANL. AUC analysis guided cut-off scores for qFIT. Patients with a qFIT of <10, 10-200, >200, were allocated a score of 1, 2, and 3, respectively. A total of 575 patients met criteria for inclusion into the study. Overall, qFIT results strongly predicted the presence of ANLs (AUC 0.87, CI 0.81-0.92; P < 0.001). The prevalence of ANLs in patients with scores 1-3 was 1.2, 13.5, and 38.9% respectfully. When controlled for other significant variables, patients with a higher qFIT score were statistically more likely to have an ANL (qFIT score = 2; OR 12.8; P < 0.001, qFIT score = 3, OR 50.0; P < 0.001). A negative qFIT had a high NPV for the presence of ANLs (98.8%, CI 97.0-99.5%). These results strongly suggest that qFIT has validity as a prioritisation tool in patients with iron deficiency; both allowing for a more informed decision of investigation of patients with very low risk of malignancy, and in identifying higher risk patients who may benefit from more urgent endoscopy.

Strategic treatment optimization for HCV (STOPHCV1): a randomised controlled trial of ultrashort duration therapy for chronic hepatitis C.

Background: The world health organization (WHO) has identified the need for a better understanding of which patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be cured with ultrashort course HCV therapy. Methods: A total of 202 individuals with chronic HCV were randomised to fixed-duration shortened therapy (8 weeks) vs variable-duration ultrashort strategies (VUS1/2). Participants not cured following first-line treatment were retreated with 12 weeks' sofosbuvir/ledipasvir/ribavirin. The primary outcome was sustained virological response 12 weeks (SVR12) after first-line treatment and retreatment. Participants were factorially randomised to receive ribavirin with first-line treatment. Results: All evaluable participants achieved SVR12 overall (197/197, 100% [95% CI 98-100]) demonstrating non-inferiority between fixed-duration and variable-duration strategies (difference 0% [95% CI -3.8%, +3.7%], 4% pre-specified non-inferiority margin). First-line SVR12 was 91% [86%-97%] (92/101) for fixed-duration vs 48% [39%-57%] (47/98) for variable-duration, but was significantly higher for VUS2 (72% [56%-87%] (23/32)) than VUS1 (36% [25%-48%] (24/66)). Overall, first-line SVR12 was 72% [65%-78%] (70/101) without ribavirin and 68% [61%-76%] (69/98) with ribavirin (p=0.48). At treatment failure, the emergence of viral resistance was lower with ribavirin (12% [2%-30%] (3/26)) than without (38% [21%-58%] (11/29), p=0.01). Conclusions: Unsuccessful first-line short-course therapy did not compromise retreatment with sofosbuvir/ledipasvir/ribavirin (100% SVR12). SVR12 rates were significantly increased when ultrashort treatment varied between 4-7 weeks rather than 4-6 weeks. Ribavirin significantly reduced resistance emergence in those failing first-line therapy. ISRCTN Registration: 37915093 (11/04/2016).

Positive predictive value of sustained virologic response 4 weeks posttreatment for achieving sustained virologic response 12 weeks posttreatment in patients receiving glecaprevir/pibrentasvir in Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials.

Sustained virologic response at posttreatment Week 12 (SVR12) is the widely accepted efficacy endpoint for direct-acting antiviral agents. Those with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are presenting younger with milder liver disease, potentially reducing need for long-term liver posttreatment monitoring. This analysis aimed to determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of SVR at posttreatment Week 4 (SVR4) for achieving SVR12 in patients with HCV, without cirrhosis or with compensated cirrhosis, receiving glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (G/P) in clinical trials. An integrated dataset from 20 Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials of G/P was evaluated in patients with 8-, 12- or 16-week treatment duration consistent with the current label (label-consistent group), and in all patients regardless of treatment duration consistency with the current label (overall group). Sensitivity analyses handled missing data either by backward imputation or were excluded. SVR4 PPV, negative predictive value (NPV), sensitivity and specificity were calculated for achieving SVR12 in both groups, and by treatment duration in the label-consistent group. SVR was defined as HCV ribonucleic acid 99% in both groups regardless of treatment duration. Not achieving SVR4 had 100% NPV and sensitivity for all groups. SVR4 measure had 79.5% specificity for identifying patients who did not achieve SVR12. Across 20 Phase 2/3 clinical trials of G/P, SVR4 was highly predictive of SVR12. Long-term follow-up to confirm SVR may not be necessary for certain populations of patients with HCV.

Uptake of interferon-free DAA therapy among HCV-infected decompensated cirrhosis patients and evidence for decreased mortality.

Interferon-free DAA therapies have recently been licensed for patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have decompensated cirrhosis (DC). Our aim was to describe factors associated with uptake of IFN-free DAAs in DC patients and to compare mortality risk and hospital admission rates between pre-DAA and DAA eras. This observational study used record-linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and national inpatient hospitalization and mortality registers. For the DAA uptake analysis, the study population (n = 297) was restricted to patients alive on 1 November 2014, and Cox regression was used to estimate uptake associated with various covariates. For the Cox regression of mortality comparing pre-DAA and DAA eras, the study population (n = 624) comprised those diagnosed with DC in 2005-2018; follow-up was censored at two years. DAA uptake was 63% overall and was significantly higher for treatment-experienced patients (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.64, 95% CI:1.14-2.34), genotype 1 vs. other genotypes (aHR = 1.55. 95% CI:1.15-2.10) and lower for persons diagnosed with DC pre-2014 (0.47, 95% CI:0.33-0.68) and in Greater Glasgow (0.64, 95% CI:0.47-0.88). The intention-to-treat SVR rate was 89% (95% CI:83-93%). All-cause and liver-related mortality risk were significantly reduced among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era (November 2014-December 2018) compared with the pre-DAA era (2005-October 2014) (aHRs of 0.68, 95% CI:0.49-0.93; 0.69, 95% CI:0.50-0.95, respectively); in contrast, hospital admission rates were higher in the DAA era (aRR = 1.14, 95% CI:1.04-1.26). The majority of HCV-infected DC patients engaged with specialist services can be treated with IFN-free DAAs. Improved survival among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era supports the beneficial impact of IFN-free therapies among those with advanced liver disease.

Correction to: Real-World Clinical Practice Use of 8-Week Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir in Treatment-Naïve Patients with Compensated Cirrhosis.

In the original article, there is an error in Fig. 1.

Real-World Clinical Practice Use of 8-Week Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir in Treatment-Naïve Patients with Compensated Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: More than 70 million people are estimated to be infected with hepatitis C virus globally. Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir is a widely used treatment and has recently been approved for an 8-week regimen for treatment-naïve patients with compensated cirrhosis in Europe and the USA, who would previously have received glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 12 weeks. This label update was based on the EXPEDITION-8 study, which included 343 treatment-naïve patients with compensated cirrhosis. However, there is currently a lack of similarly large-scale real-world studies of the 8-week glecaprevir/pibrentasvir regimen in this population. METHODS: This summary of seven separate smaller real-world studies aims to validate the results seen in EXPEDITION-8 and provide an up-to-date real-world reference for clinicians making treatment decisions for patients with compensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh A) who may benefit from a shorter-duration therapy with glecaprevir/pibrentasvir. The newly emerging real-world effectiveness data on treatment-naïve patients with compensated cirrhosis treated with 8 weeks of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir help to understand where further research is needed to support patients with hepatitis C virus. RESULTS: Across all seven studies, glecaprevir/pibrentasvir showed high effectiveness with an average sustained virologic response rate of 98.1%, similar to that found in a clinical trial setting (99.7%). Only one patient (0.5%) experienced virologic failure and treatment was well tolerated. CONCLUSION: Expanding the number of patients eligible for the shortened treatment duration will potentially increase treatment initiation and completion, particularly in underserved populations, contributing to the elimination of hepatitis C virus.

aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. METHODS: A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686). RESULTS: We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. CONCLUSIONS: This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. LAY SUMMARY: In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity.

Clinical effectiveness of pharmacist-led versus conventionally delivered antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus in patients receiving opioid substitution therapy: a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Highly effective direct-acting antiviral drugs provide the opportunity to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, but established pathways can be ineffective. We aimed to examine whether a community pharmacy care pathway increased treatment uptake, treatment completion, and cure rates for people receiving opioid substitution therapy, compared with conventional care. METHODS: This cluster-randomised trial was done in Scottish community pharmacies. Before participants were recruited, pharmacies were randomly assigned (1:1) to refer patients with evidence of HCV antibodies to conventional care or offered them care in the pharmacy (pharmacist-led care). Pharmacies were stratified by location. All pharmacies were trained to offer dried blood spot testing. All eligible participants had received opioid substitution therapy for approximately 3 months, and those eligible to receive treatment in the pharmacist-led care pathway were HCV PCR positive, were infected with HCV genotype 1 or 3, and were willing to have a pharmacist supervise their antiviral drug administration. Neither pharmacists nor patients were masked to treatment allocation. In both groups, assessment blood samples were taken, infection with HCV was confirmed, and daily oral ledipasvir-sofosbuvir (90 mg ledipasivir plus 400 mg sofosbuvir) for 8 weeks for genotype 1 or daily oral sofosbuvir (400 mg) plus oral daclatasvir (60 mg) for 12 weeks for genotype 3 was prescribed by a nurse (conventional care group) or pharmacist (pharmacist-led care group). In the conventional care group, the patient received care at a treatment centre. Once prescribed, medication in both groups was delivered as daily modified directly observed therapy alongside opioid substitution therapy in the participants' pharmacy where treatment was observed on 6 days per week. The primary outcome was the number of patients with sustained virological response 12 weeks after completion of treatment (SVR12) as a proportion of the number of people receiving opioid substitution therapy at participating pharmacies. Participants were monitored at each visit for nausea and fatigue; other adverse events were recorded as free text. Secondary outcomes compared key points on treatment pathway between the two groups. These key points were the proportion of patients having dry blood spot testing, the proportion of patients initiating HCV treatment, the proportion of patients completing the 8 or 12 week HCV course of treatment, and the proportion of patients with sustained virological response at 12 months. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02706223. FINDINGS: 56 pharmacies were randomly assigned (28 to each group; one pharmacy withdrew from the conventional care group). The 55 participating pharmacies included 2718 patients receiving opioid substitution therapy (1365 in the pharmacist-led care group and 1353 in the conventional care group). More patients met the primary endpoint of SVR12 in the pharmacist-led care group (98 [7%] of 1365) than in the conventional care group (43 [3%] of 1353; odds ratio 2·375, 95% CI 1·555-3·628, p<0·0001). More users of opioid substitution therapy in the pharmacist-led care group versus the conventional care group agreed to dry blood spot testing (245 [18%] of 1365 vs 145 [11%] of 1353, 2·292, 0·968-5·427, p=0·059); initiated treatment (112 [8%] of 1365 vs 61 [4%] of 1353, 1·889, 1·276-2·789, p=0·0015) and completed treatment (108 [8%] of 1365 vs 58 [4%] of 1353, 1·928, 1·321-2·813, p=0·0007). The data for sustained virological response at 12 months are not reported in this study: patients remain in follow-up for this outcome. No serious adverse events were recorded. INTERPRETATION: Using pharmacists to deliver an HCV care pathway made testing and treatment more accessible for patients, improved engagement, and maintained high treatment success rates. The use of this pathway could be a key part of an integrated and effective approach to HCV elimination at a community level. FUNDING: Partnership between the Scottish Government, Gilead Sciences, and Bristol-Myers Squib.

Real-world utility of HCV core antigen as an alternative to HCV RNA testing: Implications for viral load and genotype.

Following positive serology, the gold standard confirmatory test of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is detection of HCV RNA by PCR. We assessed the utility of HCV core antigen testing to identify active infection among those positive for anti-HCV antibodies, when introduced to routine testing. We identified serum samples that were tested at a single laboratory in Scotland from June 2011to December 2017. Serum samples testing positive for HCV antibodies (HCV Ab positive) followed by reflex HCV core antigen (Ag) testing during the study period were identified. Those patients for whom a PCR test was requested on the baseline sample were also identified. For this group, the sensitivity and specificity of HCV Ag as a diagnostic tool were assessed using HCV PCR as gold standard. In our cohort of 744 patients, we demonstrated a sensitivity of 82.1% (95% CI 77.1%-86.2%) and a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 98.6%-100%). Genotype 3 was associated with increased odds of a false-negative result (OR = 3.59, 95% CI: 1.32-9.71), and reduced odds of a false negative were associated with older age (odds ratio (OR)=0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97 per year) and viral load (OR = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.21 per log10 IU/ml). While the implementation of HCV core antigen testing for diagnosis could lead to significant cost savings in national screening programmes, our data suggest that a significant proportion of HCV-infected individuals may be missed. These findings have implications for HCV diagnosis and determination of viral clearance after treatment, particularly in low- and middle-income regions, where genotype 3 is prevalent.

Eight weeks of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir for genotype 3 hepatitis C in previously untreated patients with significant (F2/3) fibrosis.

Twelve weeks sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) is a highly effective pan-genotypic regimen for hepatitis C. Phase 2 data suggest 8 weeks of treatment may be sufficient for previously untreated noncirrhotic patients with genotype 3 (GT3) infection. To maximize the number of patients potentially cured within a fixed treatment budget, we elected to treat such patients locally eligible for treatment (F2/3), with 8 weeks of SOF/VEL. By local protocol, treatment-naive patients with F2 (LSM > 6.9kPa < 9.5kPa) or F3 fibrosis (≥9.5kPa < 12.5kPa) were eligible for 8-week SOF/VEL treatment. Patients commencing treatment before 1 Oct 2017 were identified from the Scottish HCV database. Baseline and treatment outcome data obtained. Ninety patients were included for analysis (72 (80%) male, mean age 45 (IQR ± 8.4), 28 (31.1%) F3 fibrosis). Opioid agonist therapy (OAT) was prescribed in 82 (91.1%) patients. Of 49 patients attending Glasgow city Alcohol and Drug Services, 27 (55.1%) had evidence of recent drug use (< 3 months) including 8 (16.3%) with self-reported intravenous drug use. On an intention-to-treat basis, SVR rates were 86/90 (95.6%, 95% CI 89.0-98.8). Excluding those who prematurely discontinued treatment (n = 4), died prior to SVR testing (n = 1) or whom experienced reinfection (n = 1), per-protocol SVR rate was 84/84 (100%, 95% CI 95.7-100.0). In conclusion, eight-week SOF/VEL is highly effective in treatment-naive GT3 patients with significant fibrosis. This offers a non-protease inhibitor-based 8-week regimen which may be useful for complex drug interactions or where time-limited opportunity for treatment. In limited resource settings, reduction in drug acquisition costs may help achieve progress towards the goal of HCV elimination.