Commentary on Ferguson, et al., "Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand".

A recent manuscript (Ferguson et al. in Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, London, 2020. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) from Imperial College modelers examining ways to mitigate and control the spread of COVID-19 has attracted much attention. In this paper, we will discuss a coarse taxonomy of models and explore the context and significance of the Imperial College and other models in contributing to the analysis of COVID-19.

Congenital heart defects in children with cleft lips and/or palates at an academic hospital in central South Africa

Background: Globally, cleft deformities are the most common craniofacial anomalies and show an association with congenital heart defects. Little research on cleft lips and/or palates (CL/P) and congenital heart defects has been reported from Africa, and none from South Africa. In 2001, it was proposed that CL/P be listed as one of six priority conditions for monitoring and notification to South African health authorities. This goal of creating a national registry has not been achieved. A near-fatal anaesthetic incident following a missed cardiac lesion in a child with a cleft lip and palate prompted this study. Objectives: To describe the prevalence of congenital heart defects diagnosed in children with CL/P presenting for corrective surgery during the Smile Week over three consecutive years (2013­2015) at an academic hospital in South Africa. Methods: A retrospective, descriptive file review of 62 patients with CL/P was performed. Since 2013, echocardiography has been performed on all patients with CL/P. Results: Twenty-three, 21 and 18 patients were operated in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively. Of these patients, 85.5% (n = 53) had no clinical evidence of a cardiac defect, of which eight did have clinically significant cardiac defects on echocardiography. Sixteen patients (25.8%) in total (n = 16/62) with a cleft deformity had a clinically significant congenital heart lesion. Of the 16 patients with a cardiac defect on transthoracic echocardiography, only four had clinical evidence of cardiac defect. Therefore, sensitivity of clinical examination was 25%, whereas the specificity was 89.1%. Three of the four patients with a syndrome had a clinically significant echocardiographic finding. Conclusion: A national guideline for the preoperative care of patients with CL/P, including routine echocardiography, is needed. Furthermore, a national registry is required for patients with CL/P with associated congenital anomalies

Genetic and epigenetic profiling of CLL disease progression reveals limited somatic evolution and suggests a relationship to memory-cell development.

We examined genetic and epigenetic changes that occur during disease progression from indolent to aggressive forms of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) using serial samples from 27 patients. Analysis of DNA mutations grouped the leukemia cases into three categories: evolving (26%), expanding (26%) and static (47%). Thus, approximately three-quarters of the CLL cases had little to no genetic subclonal evolution. However, we identified significant recurrent DNA methylation changes during progression at 4752 CpGs enriched for regions near Polycomb 2 repressive complex (PRC2) targets. Progression-associated CpGs near the PRC2 targets undergo methylation changes in the same direction during disease progression as during normal development from naive to memory B cells. Our study shows that CLL progression does not typically occur via subclonal evolution, but that certain CpG sites undergo recurrent methylation changes. Our results suggest CLL progression may involve developmental processes shared in common with the generation of normal memory B cells.

An audit of the use of platelet transfusions at Universitas Academic Hospital, Bloemfontein, South Africa.

An audit was performed at a tertiary hospital in Bloemfontein, South Africa, to establish whether clinicians adhered to local platelet transfusion guidelines. The audit showed poor compliance with local guidelines, with 34% of platelet transfusions not aligned with guidelines and 29.9% of transfusions administered to patients with platelet counts of ≥ 150 × 10(9)/L. When compared to medical disciplines, surgical disciplines tended significantly more to transfuse platelets inappropriately (17.1% and 53.7%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Documentation was poor and in 48.4% of orders for platelets, the indication for the platelet transfusion was not clearly stated. Considerable cost could be avoided with improved adherence to guidelines. This study emphasises the need for improving education in transfusion medicine amongst medical doctors. It is hoped that the information gleaned from this study would assist in the design of educational programmes in transfusion medicine as we attempt to close the existing gaps in knowledge and skills in the field, while ensuring that blood is transfused in a cost-effective and appropriate manner.

Patients' recall and perceptions regarding consent to blood transfusion at Universitas Academic Hospital, Bloemfontein, South Africa.

We studied the recall and perceptions of transfused patients at a single centre. Fifty-three patients were included. In 11 (20.8%) cases, no written informed consent document could be traced. Four patients who had informed consent documents in their records had no recollection of the consent process. Approximately 11% of patients stated that the consent process was performed using unfamiliar terms. When compared to Caucasian and mixed race respondents, more African respondents (83%) would have preferred the presence of a family member (p < 0.01). Although not all the patients experienced the informed consent positively, it did not impact on their perception of the blood transfusion itself.

Pityriasis rotunda as an incidental paraneoplastic finding in two patients with multiple myeloma.

Pityriasis rotunda (PR) is an uncommon chronic dermatosis, which may be idiopathic or may be associated with infections or malignancy. We describe the clinical and biochemical findings of two patients with multiple myeloma, who were incidentally diagnosed with PR, and detail the clinical conditions with which this rare paraneoplastic phenomenon may be associated. Although PR is a rare condition, it may be found as a paraneoplastic phenomenon in a range of conditions, and thus should be recognised as an important clinical sign.

Impact on activities of daily living using a functional electrical stimulation device to improve dropped foot in people with multiple sclerosis, measured by the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure.

BACKGROUND: Dropped foot is a common problem following multiple sclerosis. Functional electrical stimulation can elicit an active muscle contraction providing dorsiflexion and eversion. OBJECTIVE: To determine if the Odstock dropped foot stimulator (ODFS), improved activities of daily living for people with multiple sclerosis. METHOD: 64 people with unilateral dropped foot due to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis took part in a randomized controlled trial. Research volunteers were assigned to a group using the ODFS or a group who received physiotherapy exercises for 18 weeks. Outcome measures were the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure (COPM) and a falls diary. RESULTS: Results of 53 research volunteers are reported. Improvements in performance and satisfaction scores were greater in the ODFS group than the exercise group; (p < 0.05). Use of the ODFS was also perceived as effective in reducing tripping and increasing walking distance. The median number of falls were 5 in the ODFS group and 18 in the exercise group (p = 0.036) over the study period. CONCLUSION: The study shows that people with multiple sclerosis using the ODFS increased their COPM performance and satisfaction scores of their identified problems of activities of daily living more than a matched group who received physiotherapy exercises. ODFS users also experienced fewer falls.

A randomized trial to investigate the effects of functional electrical stimulation and therapeutic exercise on walking performance for people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Functional electrical stimulation (FES), is a means of producing a contraction in a paralyzed or weak muscle to enable function through electrical excitation of the innervating nerve. OBJECTIVE: This two-group randomized trial assessed the effects of single channel common peroneal nerve stimulation on objective aspects of gait relative to exercise therapy for people with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). METHODS: Forty-four people with a diagnosis of SPMS and unilateral dropped foot completed the trial. Twenty patients were randomly allocated to a group receiving FES and the remaining 24 to a group receiving a physiotherapy home exercise program for a period of 18 weeks. RESULTS: The exercise group showed a statistically significant increase in 10 m walking speed and distance walked in 3 min, relative to the FES group who showed no significant change in walking performance without stimulation. At each stage of the trial, the FES group performed to a significantly higher level with FES than without for the same outcome measures. CONCLUSION: Exercise may provide a greater training effect on walking speed and endurance than FES for people with SPMS. FES may provide an orthotic benefit when outcome is measured using the same parameters. More research is required to investigate the combined therapeutic effects of FES and exercise for this patient group.

Measurement of one-bond 1H-13C, couplings in backbone-labelled proteins.

NMR dipole-dipole couplings between protein backbone nuclei (1H(alpha), 13C(alpha), 15N, 1H(N), 13C') offer enormous scope for the rapid determination of protein global folds. Here, we show that measurement of one-bond splittings in the protein backbone is facilitated by use of protein that is selectively isotopically enriched only in the backbone atoms. In particular, 1H(alpha)-13C(alpha) couplings can be measured simply and with high sensitivity by use of conventional heteronuclear single quantum correlation (HSQC) techniques.

Initial results for Hybrid SPECT--conjugate-view tumor dosimetry in 131I-anti-B1 antibody therapy of previously untreated patients with lymphoma.

UNLABELLED: A study of the use of 131I-labeled anti-B1 monoclonal antibody, proceeded by an unlabeled predose, for therapy of previously untreated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients has recently been completed at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. More than half of the patients treated were imaged intratherapy with SPECT to separate apparently large tumors, unresolved by conjugate views, into individual ones specified by CT scan. The dosimetry of these tumors is reported here. METHODS: The activity-quantification procedure used 3-dimensional CT-to-SPECT fusion so that attenuation maps could be computed from CT and that volumes of interest could be drawn on the CT slices and transferred to the SPECT images. Daily conjugate-view images after a tracer dose of labeled anti-B1 antibody followed by an unlabeled predose provided the shape of the time-activity curve for the calculation of therapy dosimetry. Reconstructed SPECT counts that were within a volume of interest were converted to activity by using a background-and-radius-adaptive conversion factor. Activities were increased for tumors less than 200 g using a recovery-coefficient factor derived from activity measurements for a set of spheres with volumes ranging from 1.6 to 200 cm3. The calculated tumor radiation absorbed dose was based, in part, on the CT volume and on the intratherapy-SPECT activity. RESULTS: The mean of the radiation dose values for 131 abdominal or pelvic tumors in 31 patients was 616 cGy with a standard deviation of +/- 50 cGy. The largest dose was 40 Gy and the smallest dose was 73 cGy. The mean volume for the tumors was 59.2 +/- 11.2 cm3. The correlation coefficient between absorbed dose and tumor volume was small (r2 = 0.007), and the slope of the least-squares fit represented a decrease of only 36.4 cGy per 100 cm3 increase in volume. This small slope may reflect a characteristic of anti-B1 antibody therapy that is important for its success. The mean absorbed dose per unit administered activity was 1.83 +/- 0.145 Gy/GBq. The largest value was 12.6 Gy/GBq, and the smallest value was 0.149 Gy/GBq. The mean dose for 9 axillary tumors in 5 patients was significantly lower than the average dose for abdominal and pelvic tumors (P = 0.01). Therefore, axillary tumors should be grouped separately in assessing dose-response relationships. Anecdotal patient results tended to verify the validity of using the shape of the conjugate-view time-activity curve for the average SPECT-intratherapy curve. However, there was also an indication that the shape varies somewhat for individual tumors with respect to time to peak. CONCLUSION: Hybrid SPECT-conjugate-view dosimetry provided radiation absorbed dose estimates for the individual patient tumors that were resolved by CT.

I-131 anti-B1 therapy/tracer uptake ratio using a new procedure for fusion of tracer images to computed tomography images.

In patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma being treated by I-131-radiolabeled anti-B1 monoclonal antibody, we test the hypothesis that the activity taken up in tumors during therapy is the same as that observed during tracer evaluation, except for scaling by the ratio of administered activities. Chemotherapy-relapsed patients are imaged only with planar conjugate views, whereas previously untreated patients are imaged with planar conjugate views and with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). The SPECT tracer activity quantification requires computed tomography (CT) to SPECT image fusion, for which we devised a new procedure: first, the tracer SPECT images are fused to the therapy SPECT images. Then, that transformation is combined with the therapy SPECT-to-CT transformation. We also use (a) the same volumes of interest defined on CT for both tracer and therapy image sets, and (b) a SPECT counts-to-activity conversion factor that adapts to background and rotation radius. We define R as the ratio of therapy activity percentage of infused dose over tracer activity percentage of infused dose at 2-3 days after monoclonal antibody infusion. For 31 chemotherapy-relapsed patients, the R ratio for 60 solitary or composite tumors averages 0.931 +/- 0.031. The hypothesis of R being 1 is rejected with greater than 95% confidence. However, the difference from 1 is only 7.4%. The range of R is 0.43-1.55. For seven previously untreated patients, R averages 1.050 +/- 0.050 for 24 solitary tumors evaluated by SPECT. For six of these patients, R averages 0.946 +/- 0.098 for one of these solitary tumors and for five composite tumors, evaluated by conjugate views. Both results agree with the hypothesis that R is 1. The range of R for the SPECT tumors is 0.71 +/- 0.03 to 1.82 +/- 0.53, and for the conjugate view tumors, it is 0.70-1.35. Plots of R versus tumor volume yield small correlation coefficients. That from SPECT approaches a statistically significant difference from zero correlation (P = 0.06). In summary, on average, the tumor percentage of infused dose following tracer administration is predictive of therapeutic percentage of infused dose within 8%. For greater accuracy with individual tumors, however, an intratherapy evaluation is probably necessary because the range of R is large.

Risk factors for hepatitis B virus infection among women attending a clinic for sexually transmitted diseases.

Risk factors for and serologic evidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection were analyzed among 557 women. Study subjects were attending a clinic for sexually transmitted diseases and enrolled in a clinical trial of nonoxynol-9 prevention of gonococcal and chlamydial infections. Seventy-eight (14%) showed serologic evidence of past HBV infection. Only age at time of serum collection was significantly associated with HBV marker prevalence (P = 0.04). None of the four measures of sexual activity taken (number of sex partners per month, frequency of sexual intercourse, number of documented episodes of sexually transmitted diseases, and lifetime number of sexual partners) were significantly related to the presence of HBV markers. For each measure, however, differences observed between HBV positive and negative subjects were consistent with what would be expected if these factors did contribute to HBV infection risk. These results support the role of heterosexual transmission of HBV infection in women and are consistent with recommendations for hepatitis B immunization of heterosexually active persons with multiple sexual partners.

The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) Hysteria (Hy) scale: scoring bodily concern and psychological denial subscales in chronic back pain patients.

Chronic back pain patients were compared to two nonpain comparison groups on Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) Hysteria (Hy) scores and scores on two Hy subscales: Bodily Concern and Psychological Denial. Pain subjects had significantly higher scores on the Bodily Concern Subscale and lower scores on the Psychological Denial Subscale than nonpain subjects with similar elevated Hy scores. However, pain subjects had Psychological Denial scores similar to those of subjects with normal MMPI profiles, despite significantly higher Hy scores. These findings are interpreted to support the hypothesis that, among pain patients, Hy elevations are partially accounted for by the endorsement of a disproportionate number of Bodily Concern items. Finally, within pain patients, scores on the Bodily Concern subscale were significantly related to more indices of pain duration and severity than were scores on the Psychological Denial subscale. The potential clinical utility of scoring these subscales is discussed.

Lethal outbreak of hepatitis B in a dental practice.

Between April 1, 1984, and Feb 1, 1985, nine cases of hepatitis B occurred in the patients of a dentist practicing in a rural Indiana county (population, 35,000). This was over 20 times the mean annual incidence for the county in the previous decade. All of the patients had been treated by the dentist two to five months before illness. Although the dentist had never had hepatitis symptoms, his serum was positive for hepatitis B surface antigen and hepatitis B e antigen and negative for anti-hepatitis B core IgM antibody, indicating that he was probably a hepatitis B carrier. Two patients (22%) died of fulminant hepatitis; the case-fatality ratio was over ten times the reported US mean for hepatitis B. Using a case definition based on anti-hepatitis B core IgM antibody positivity and exposure to the dentist during a defined time period, a serosurvey of the dentist's patients identified 15 asymptomatic cases (overall attack rate, 3.2%). Infection risk was related to the amount of trauma involved in the cases' dental procedures. No cause was found for the unusual lethality of the outbreak.

The prediction of chronic pain outcome by psychological variables.

Followup telephone interviews were conducted with fifty-four former patients of a multidisciplinary clinic for the evaluation of chronic pain. Interviews were conducted between thirteen and fifty-five months following initial evaluation at the pain clinic. Followup levels of pain and physical disability were compared with the following measures obtained at initial evaluation: levels of pain and physical disability and scores on the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), and Zung Depression Inventory (ZDI). In general, both physical disability measures and psychological test scores obtained at initial interview were related to followup measures. However, when the predictive value of initial pain and physical disability was accounted for, psychological test scores tended not to produce further significant increment in predictability. These findings are interpreted to mean that the predictive value of these psychological tests stems less from their reflection of a psychological state or attitude with respect to pain, and more from their tendency to reflect ongoing level of pain, disability, and other pain sequelae. The results support the hypothesis that scores on these psychological tests are, at least in part, a reflection of the actual pain and disability and may not be subject to the same clinical interpretations that scores obtained from a psychiatric sample would be.

Serologic evidence for widespread infection with La Crosse and St. Louis encephalitis viruses in the Indiana human population.

The vast under-reporting of La Crosse virus and St. Louis encephalitis virus infections in Indiana residents was evident when numerous inapparent infections were detected retrospectively using serum dilution neutralization analyses of serum obtained in November 1978-April 1979 from 10,208 persons (0.2% of the state's population). An antibody prevalence rate of 3.6% to St. Louis encephalitis virus was detected in the sample population as a whole, with rates as high as 13.2% for residents of individual counties. The estimated average annual rate of infection for the whole population was 0.32%. The antibody prevalence to La Crosse virus in the sample population as a whole was 2.3%, with rates ranging up to 12.5% for residents of individual counties. The estimated average annual rate of infection for the whole population was 0.29%. The epidemiologic behavior of the two viruses was quite different. Age-specific antibody prevalence for St. Louis encephalitis virus indicated a pattern of endemic infection existed in the population as a whole; antibody prevalence rose as the population aged. However, many other infections apparently occurred during the 1975 and earlier epidemics. Age-specific antibody prevalence for La Crosse virus indicated a typical pattern of endemic infection was present. The antibody prevalence to La Crosse virus was best described by the Poisson distribution and that of St. Louis encephalitis virus by the negative binomial distribution. These data support the hypothesis that St. Louis encephalitis virus primarily produces intermittent epidemics in the Midwest while La Crosse virus produces continuous seasonal endemic infections. However, evidence suggestive of a low level of interepidemic St. Louis encephalitis virus infection in the population was also obtained. Computer-drawn synagraphic mapping view "maps" of regional antibody prevalence rates demonstrated the existence of distinct foci of infection for each virus in the human population.