Carbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications.

The energy mix transition has accelerated the need for more accurate emissions reporting throughout the petroleum supply chain. Despite increasing environmental regulations and pressure for emissions disclosure, the low resolution of existing carbon footprint assessment does not account for the complexity of crude oil trading. The lack of source crude traceability has led to poor visibility into the "well-to-refinery-entrance" carbon intensities at the level of granular pathways between producers and destination markets. Using high-fidelity datasets, optimization algorithms to facilitate supply chain traceability and bottom-up, physics-based emission estimators, we show that the variability in global "well-to-refinery-entrance" carbon intensities at the level of crude trade pathways is significant: 4.2-214.1 kg-CO2-equivalent/barrel with a volume-weighted average of 50.5 kg-CO2-equivalent/barrel. Coupled with oil supply forecasts under 1.5 °C scenarios up to 2050, this variability translates to additional CO2-equivalent savings of 1.5-6.1 Gigatons that could be realized solely by prioritizing low-carbon supply chain pathways without other capital-intensive mitigation measures.

Air quality impacts of crop residue burning in India and mitigation alternatives.

Crop residue burning contributes to poor air quality and imposes a health burden on India. Despite government bans and other interventions, this practice remains widespread. Here we estimate the impact of changes in agricultural emissions on air quality across India and quantify the potential benefit of district-level actions using an adjoint modeling approach. From 2003 to 2019, we find that agricultural residue burning caused 44,000-98,000 particulate matter exposure-related premature deaths annually, of which Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh contribute 67-90%. Due to a combination of relatively high downwind population density, agricultural output, and cultivation of residue-intensive crops, six districts in Punjab alone contribute to 40% of India-wide annual air quality impacts from residue burning. Burning two hours earlier in Punjab alone could avert premature deaths up to 9600 (95% CI: 8000-11,000) each year, valued at 3.2 (95% CI: 0.49-7.3) billion US dollars. Our findings support the use of targeted and potentially low-cost interventions to mitigate crop residue burning in India, pending further research regarding cost-effectiveness and feasibility.

The effects of indoor temperature and humidity on local transmission of COVID-19 and how it relates to global trends.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, analyses on global data have not reached unanimous consensus on whether warmer and humid weather curbs the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We conjectured that this lack of consensus is due to the discrepancy between global environmental data such as temperature and humidity being collected outdoors, while most infections have been reported to occur indoors, where conditions can be different. Thus, we have methodologically investigated the effect of temperature and relative humidity on the spread of expired respiratory droplets from the mouth, which are assumed to be the main cause of most short-range infections. Calculating the trajectory of individual droplets using an experimentally validated evaporation model, the final height and distance of the evaporated droplets is obtained, and then correlated with global COVID-19 spread. Increase in indoor humidity is associated with reduction in COVID-19 spread, while temperature has no statistically significant effect.

An Integrated Assessment of Emissions, Air Quality, and Public Health Impacts of China's Transition to Electric Vehicles.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a promising pathway to providing cleaner personal mobility. China provides substantial supports to increase EV market share. This study provides an extensive analysis of the currently unclear environmental and health benefits of these incentives at the provincial level. EVs in China have modest cradle-to-gate CO2 benefits (on average 29%) compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), but have similar carbon emissions relative to hybrid electric vehicles. Well-to-wheel air pollutant emissions assessment shows that emissions associated with ICEVs are mainly from gasoline production, not the tailpipe, suggesting tighter emissions controls on refineries are needed to combat air pollution problems effectively. By integrating a vehicle fleet model into policy scenario analysis, we quantify the policy impacts associated with the passenger vehicles in the major Chinese provinces: broader EV penetration, especially combined with cleaner power generation, could deliver greater air quality and health benefits, but not necessarily significant climate change mitigation. The total value to society of the climate and mortality benefits in 2030 is found to be comparable to a prior estimate of the EV policy's economic costs.

Environmental and Economic Performance of Hybrid Power-to-Liquid and Biomass-to-Liquid Fuel Production in the United States.

Power-to-liquids are a class of liquid drop-in fuels produced from electricity and carbon dioxide as the primary process inputs, which have the potential to reduce transportation's climate impacts. We quantify the economic and life cycle environmental characteristics of four electrofuel technology pathways that rely on the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis but produce synthesis gas via different schemes: power-to-liquid (PtL) via electrolysis and a reverse water gas shift (RWGS) reaction; PtL via co-electrolysis; gasification of biomass-to-liquid (BtL); and a hybrid power- and biomass-to-liquid (PBtL) pathway. The results indicate that the hybrid PBtL pathway is the most environmentally and economically promising option for electrofuel production, with results highly dependent on input electricity source characteristics such as cost and emissions. The carbon intensities of electricity generation that must not be exceeded for electrofuels to have lower life cycle emissions than conventional diesel are 222, 116, and 143 gCO2e/kWh for PBtL, PtL electrolysis + RWGS, and PtL co-electrolysis, respectively. We characterize the PBtL pathway in more detail by combining spatially resolved data on biomass cultivation, electricity generation, and cost-optimized hydrogen production from renewable electricity in the United States (US). We find that the private emissions abatement cost for PBtL fuels varies between 740 and 2000 $/tCO2e, depending primarily on the location of fuel production.

Air pollution impacts of COVID-19-related containment measures.

Responses to the COVID-19 outbreak resulted in one of the largest short-term decreases in anthropogenic emissions in modern history. To date, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the impact of lockdowns on air quality and human health. Using global satellite observations and ground measurements from 36 countries in Europe, North America, and East Asia, we find that lockdowns led to reductions in NO2 concentrations globally, resulting in ~32,000 avoided premature mortalities, including ~21,000 in China. However, we do not find corresponding reductions in PM2.5 and ozone globally. Using satellite measurements, we show that the disconnect between NO2 and ozone changes stems from local chemical regimes. The COVID-related lockdowns demonstrate the need for targeted air quality policies to reduce the global burden of air pollution, especially related to secondary pollutants.

The Effect of Stirrup Length on Impact Attenuation and Its Association With Muscle Strength.

ABSTRACT: Keener, MM, Critchley, ML, Layer, JS, Johnson, EC, Barrett, SF, and Dai, B. The effect of stirrup length on impact attenuation and its association with muscle strength. J Strength Cond Res 35(11): 3056-3062, 2021-Horseback-riders have a high prevalence of low back injuries, which may be related to the repetitive low back impacts experienced in riding. The purposes of this study were to quantify the effect of 3 stirrup lengths and 2 riding styles on the peak acceleration experienced by the rider and the association between the peak acceleration and the rider's different elements of muscle strength. Thirteen female riders performed a sitting or rising trot at each of the 3 stirrup lengths (2-point length, mid-seat length, or dressage length), while the acceleration of the tibia, sacrum, seventh cervical vertebra (C7), and head were collected. Subjects completed a push-up, a vertical jump, and 4 core exercises to assess upper-body strength, lower-body strength, and core endurance, respectively. Peak acceleration of the sacrum, C7, and head were generally lower in the standing phase of the rising trot compared with the sitting phase of either the sitting or rising trot, particularly at the shortest stirrup length. Peak acceleration of the sacrum, C7, and head decreased as the stirrup length was shortened in the standing phase of the rising trot. Canonical correlations showed nonsignificant correlations between strength measurements and peak acceleration. Riding with more weight supported through the legs with a short stirrup length may decrease low back impacts and their associated injury risk. Technique training is likely needed to encourage riders to use lower-body and core strength for impact attenuation.

Comparisons of simple and complex methods for quantifying exposure to individual point source air pollution emissions.

Expanded use of reduced complexity approaches in epidemiology and environmental justice investigations motivates detailed evaluation of these modeling approaches. Chemical transport models (CTMs) remain the most complete representation of atmospheric processes but are limited in applications that require large numbers of runs, such as those that evaluate individual impacts from large numbers of sources. This limitation motivates comparisons between modern CTM-derived techniques and intentionally simpler alternatives. We model population-weighted PM2.5 source impacts from each of greater than 1100 coal power plants operating in the United States in 2006 and 2011 using three approaches: (1) adjoint PM2.5 sensitivities calculated by the GEOS-Chem CTM; (2) a wind field-based Lagrangian model called HyADS; and (3) a simple calculation based on emissions and inverse source-receptor distance. Annual individual power plants' nationwide population-weighted PM2.5 source impacts calculated by HyADS and the inverse distance approach have normalized mean errors between 20 and 28% and root mean square error ranges between 0.0003 and 0.0005 µg m-3 compared with adjoint sensitivities. Reduced complexity approaches are most similar to the GEOS-Chem adjoint sensitivities nearby and downwind of sources, with degrading performance farther from and upwind of sources particularly when wind fields are not accounted for.

Reducing Uncertainty in Contrail Radiative Forcing Resulting from Uncertainty in Ice Crystal Properties.

The radiative forcing resulting from condensation clouds behind aircraft ("contrails") has been estimated to have an effect on the same order of magnitude as all accumulated aviation-attributable CO2. However, contrail impacts are highly uncertain, with estimates of total contrail-driven forcing made in the past five years varying by a factor of 4. Two of the key driving uncertainties are the crystal shape and size, which describe the cloud optical properties. Here we combine data from high-fidelity scattering simulations of single crystals with in situ measurement of bulk contrail ice properties to bound the range of realistic optical properties for contrail ice. Accounting for the full range of measured contrail microphysical evolution pathways, and for a given estimate of contrail coverage, we find that the global net radiative forcing due to contrails in 2015 is between 8.6 and 10.7 mW/m2. Relative to the midpoint, this uncertainty range is less than one-quarter of that recently reported in the literature. This reduction in uncertainty is primarily due to the elimination of spheres as a plausible long-term shape for contrail ice, leaving questions of contrail coverage and optical depth as the primary causes of contrail forcing uncertainty.

Premature mortality related to United States cross-state air pollution.

Outdoor air pollution adversely affects human health and is estimated to be responsible for five to ten per cent of the total annual premature mortality in the contiguous United States1-3. Combustion emissions from a variety of sources, such as power generation or road traffic, make a large contribution to harmful air pollutants such as ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5)4. Efforts to mitigate air pollution have focused mainly on the relationship between local emission sources and local air quality2. Air quality can also be affected by distant emission sources, however, including emissions from neighbouring federal states5,6. This cross-state exchange of pollution poses additional regulatory challenges. Here we quantify the exchange of air pollution among the contiguous United States, and assess its impact on premature mortality that is linked to increased human exposure to PM2.5 and ozone from seven emission sectors for 2005 to 2018. On average, we find that 41 to 53 per cent of air-quality-related premature mortality resulting from a state's emissions occurs outside that state. We also find variations in the cross-state contributions of different emission sectors and chemical species to premature mortality, and changes in these variations over time. Emissions from electric power generation have the greatest cross-state impacts as a fraction of their total impacts, whereas commercial/residential emissions have the smallest. However, reductions in emissions from electric power generation since 2005 have meant that, by 2018, cross-state premature mortality associated with the commercial/residential sector was twice that associated with power generation. In terms of the chemical species emitted, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide emissions caused the most cross-state premature deaths in 2005, but by 2018 primary PM2.5 emissions led to cross-state premature deaths equal to three times those associated with sulfur dioxide emissions. These reported shifts in emission sectors and emission species that contribute to premature mortality may help to guide improvements to air quality in the contiguous United States.

Benchmarking network propagation methods for disease gene identification.

In-silico identification of potential target genes for disease is an essential aspect of drug target discovery. Recent studies suggest that successful targets can be found through by leveraging genetic, genomic and protein interaction information. Here, we systematically tested the ability of 12 varied algorithms, based on network propagation, to identify genes that have been targeted by any drug, on gene-disease data from 22 common non-cancerous diseases in OpenTargets. We considered two biological networks, six performance metrics and compared two types of input gene-disease association scores. The impact of the design factors in performance was quantified through additive explanatory models. Standard cross-validation led to over-optimistic performance estimates due to the presence of protein complexes. In order to obtain realistic estimates, we introduced two novel protein complex-aware cross-validation schemes. When seeding biological networks with known drug targets, machine learning and diffusion-based methods found around 2-4 true targets within the top 20 suggestions. Seeding the networks with genes associated to disease by genetics decreased performance below 1 true hit on average. The use of a larger network, although noisier, improved overall performance. We conclude that diffusion-based prioritisers and machine learning applied to diffusion-based features are suited for drug discovery in practice and improve over simpler neighbour-voting methods. We also demonstrate the large impact of choosing an adequate validation strategy and the definition of seed disease genes.

Pharmacy Technician Review of Oral Nutritional Supplements (ONS) within Care Homes.

Up to 42% of patients admitted to care homes are at risk of malnutrition. Oral nutritional supplements (ONS) can be prescribed to increase nutritional intake when diet alone is insufficient to meet daily nutritional requirements. Where ONS are inappropriately initiated or continued beyond treatment goals this can contribute to significant waste and unnecessary costs. This study reviewed whether pharmacy technicians working in care home settings can support the cost-effective use of ONS. A quality improvement project using Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) methodology was undertaken by pharmacy technicians working in care homes to review the prescribing and monitoring of ONS. A sample of 330 residents were reviewed across 5 care homes. 45 residents were prescribed ONS, 16 of whom were unknown to dietitians. In collaboration with the dietetic service an oral nutritional support flow chart was developed and tested. Thirteen of the 16 residents unknown to the dietetic team did not require ONS and could be considered for alternative dietary options. Through collaborative working with dietetic services, pharmacy technicians can support effective use and review of ONS for care home residents, reduce unnecessary prescribing, and ensure appropriate referral to dietitians where indicated.

SCOPE11 Method for Estimating Aircraft Black Carbon Mass and Particle Number Emissions.

Black carbon (BC) emissions from aircraft engines lead to an increase in the atmospheric burden of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Exposure to PM2.5 from sources, including aviation, is associated with an increased risk of premature mortality, and BC suspended in the atmosphere has a warming impact on the climate. BC particles emitted from aircraft also serve as nuclei for contrail ice particles, which are a major component of aviation's climate impact. To facilitate the evaluation of these impacts, we have developed a method to estimate BC mass and number emissions at the engine exit plane, referred to as the Smoke Correlation for Particle Emissions-CAEP11 (SCOPE11). We use a data set consisting of SN-BC mass concentration pairs, collected using certification-compliant measurement systems, to develop a new relationship between smoke number (SN) and BC mass concentration. In addition, we use a complementary data set to estimate measurement system loss correction factors and particle geometric mean diameters to estimate BC number emissions at the engine exit plane. Using this method, we estimate global BC emissions from aircraft landing and takeoff (LTO) operations for 2015 to be 0.74 Gg/year (95% CI = 0.64-0.84) and 2.85 × 1025 particles/year (95% CI = 1.86-4.49 × 1025).

Flight of an aeroplane with solid-state propulsion.

Since the first aeroplane flight more than 100 years ago, aeroplanes have been propelled using moving surfaces such as propellers and turbines. Most have been powered by fossil-fuel combustion. Electroaerodynamics, in which electrical forces accelerate ions in a fluid1,2, has been proposed as an alternative method of propelling aeroplanes-without moving parts, nearly silently and without combustion emissions3-6. However, no aeroplane with such a solid-state propulsion system has yet flown. Here we demonstrate that a solid-state propulsion system can sustain powered flight, by designing and flying an electroaerodynamically propelled heavier-than-air aeroplane. We flew a fixed-wing aeroplane with a five-metre wingspan ten times and showed that it achieved steady-level flight. All batteries and power systems, including a specifically developed ultralight high-voltage (40-kilovolt) power converter, were carried on-board. We show that conventionally accepted limitations in thrust-to-power ratio and thrust density4,6,7, which were previously thought to make electroaerodynamics unfeasible as a method of aeroplane propulsion, are surmountable. We provide a proof of concept for electroaerodynamic aeroplane propulsion, opening up possibilities for aircraft and aerodynamic devices that are quieter, mechanically simpler and do not emit combustion emissions.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Costs of Production of Diesel and Jet Fuel from Municipal Solid Waste.

This paper quantifies and compares the life cycle GHG emissions and costs of production of diesel and jet fuel derived from municipal solid waste (MSW) in the United States via three thermochemical conversion pathways: conventional gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT middle distillate, MD), plasma gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (Plasma FT MD), and conventional gasification, catalytic alcohol synthesis, and alcohol-to-jet upgrading (ATJ MD). We use expanded system boundaries to capture the change in existing MSW use and disposal, and account for parameter uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations. We estimate median life cycle GHG emissions of 32.9, 62.3, and 52.7 gCO2e/MJ for FT, Plasma FT and ATJ MD fuels, respectively, compared to a baseline of 90 gCO2e/MJ for conventional MD fuels. Median minimum selling prices are estimated at 0.99, 1.78, and 1.20 $ per liter with the probability of achieving a positive net present value of fuel production at market prices of 14%, 0.1% and 7% for FT, Plasma FT and ATJ MD fuels, respectively. If the societal perspective rather than an investor's perspective is evaluated, then the probability of positive net present value of fuel production increases to 93%, 67%, and 92.5% for the FT, Plasma FT, and ATJ MD fuels, respectively.

Kinetic Analysis of Isometric Back Squats and Isometric Belt Squats.

Layer, JS, Grenz, C, Hinshaw, TJ, Smith, DT, Barrett, SF, and Dai, B. Kinetic analysis of isometric back squats and isometric belt squats. J Strength Cond Res 32(12): 3301-3309, 2018-Belt squats seem to provide an alternative to back squats. However, it is not clear how musculoskeletal loading differs between the two. This study compared lower extremity and low-back kinetics during isometric back squats and isometric belt squats. Sixteen men (age: 22.6 ± 3.4 years; height: 1.74 ± 0.11 m; mass: 82.0 ± 5.6 kg) and 10 women (age: 21.5 ± 2.5 years; height: 1.64 ± 0.10 m; mass: 68.9 ± 7.1 kg) performed isometric back squats and belt squats at 4 squat depths. Joint resultant moments were calculated from kinematic and ground reaction force data. Linear interpolation was used to estimate peak vertical forces and joint moments at a 45° thigh segment angle. Subjects increased peak forces, ankle moments, and knee moments but decreased low-back moments from back to belt squats (p ≤ 0.023). Hip moments did not significantly change between 2 squats. Subjects demonstrating smaller ankle and knee moments during back squats showed greater increases in these moments from back to belt squats (p ≤ 0.012, R ≤ 0.24). Subjects whose back squats were characterized by greater low-back moments displayed greater decreases in low-back moments from back to belt squats (p < 0.001, R = 0.98). Compared with isometric back squats, isometric belt squats may provide a similar or greater external loading for the musculoskeletal system of the lower extremities while reducing external spinal loading. Belt squats may be considered by individuals with upper-body or spinal injuries and those displaying excessive external back moments.

ciRS-7 exonic sequence is embedded in a long non-coding RNA locus.

ciRS-7 is an intensely studied, highly expressed and conserved circRNA. Essentially nothing is known about its biogenesis, including the location of its promoter. A prevailing assumption has been that ciRS-7 is an exceptional circRNA because it is transcribed from a locus lacking any mature linear RNA transcripts of the same sense. To study the biogenesis of ciRS-7, we developed an algorithm to define its promoter and predicted that the human ciRS-7 promoter coincides with that of the long non-coding RNA, LINC00632. We validated this prediction using multiple orthogonal experimental assays. We also used computational approaches and experimental validation to establish that ciRS-7 exonic sequence is embedded in linear transcripts that are flanked by cryptic exons in both human and mouse. Together, this experimental and computational evidence generates a new model for regulation of this locus: (a) ciRS-7 is like other circRNAs, as it is spliced into linear transcripts; (b) expression of ciRS-7 is primarily determined by the chromatin state of LINC00632 promoters; (c) transcription and splicing factors sufficient for ciRS-7 biogenesis are expressed in cells that lack detectable ciRS-7 expression. These findings have significant implications for the study of the regulation and function of ciRS-7, and the analytic framework we developed to jointly analyze RNA-seq and ChIP-seq data reveal the potential for genome-wide discovery of important biological regulation missed in current reference annotations.

CausalR: extracting mechanistic sense from genome scale data.

SUMMARY: Utilization of causal interaction data enables mechanistic rather than descriptive interpretation of genome-scale data. Here we present CausalR, the first open source causal network analysis platform. Implemented functions enable regulator prediction and network reconstruction, with network and annotation files created for visualization in Cytoscape. False positives are limited using the introduced Sequential Causal Analysis of Networks approach. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: CausalR is implemented in R, parallelized, and is available from Bioconductor. CONTACT: glyn.x.bradley@gsk.com. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Impact of medication review, within a shared decision-making framework, on deprescribing in people living in care homes.

OBJECTIVES: The key objectives of this study were to quantify extent of prescribing, reasons for deprescribing, common therapeutic groups of medicines deprescribed and adverse events. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was carried out on a quality improvement project where 422 care home residents in 20 care homes received a medicines optimisation review with a pharmacist and other members of the healthcare team (general medical practitioner, care home nurse). Data on number, type and cost of medicines were collected. Statistical analysis was performed to test for differences between pharmacist-only review and the pharmacist plus general practitioner (GP), and to identify any correlation between the original number of medicines and the number of medicines stopped. RESULTS: Of the 422 patients reviewed, 298 (70.6%) had at least one medicine stopped with 704 medicines being stopped. This represented 19.5% of the medicines originally prescribed (3602 medicines). There was no statistically significant difference between pharmacist only and pharmacist plus GP in terms of stopping medicines. The main groups of medicines stopped were laxatives, skin products and bone protection. There was weak correlation between the original number of medicines prescribed and the number stopped. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown that medicines optimisation reviews can lead to a reduction in polypharmacy for care home residents through a deprescribing process. Patients' medicine regimens were simplified and optimised while making financial significant savings for the National Health Service.

VISUAL FEEDBACK ARRAY TO ACHIEVE REPRODUCIBLE LIMB DISPLACEMENTS AND VELOCITIES IN HUMANS.

Precise and reproducible feedback is important for studies on motor control, the adaptive responses to exercise training and the limits of human neuromuscular performance. For this purpose, a custom instrumentation array was previously developed to provide human subjects with visual feedback on their contractile durations and limb velocities during knee extension exercise. The array consisted of two columns, each with 14 high-visibility light emitting diodes. One array column provided the subject with the target cadence of position change while the complementary array provided an indication of the actual rate of displacement achieved by the subject. The array design has been improved to include an onboard microcontroller-based signal generator to generate the desired protocol cadence and also the ability to easily customize and 'lock in' desired protocol parameters. The array allows for custom settings to provide feedback on the concentric and eccentric activation periods during exercise. It can also be used in clinical settings to track the active or passive ranges of motion during rehabilitation.