Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant.

Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands.

Foliar Nutritional Quality Explains Patchy Browsing Damage Caused by an Invasive Mammal.

Introduced herbivores frequently inflict significant, yet patchy damage on native ecosystems through selective browsing. However, there are few instances where the underlying cause of this patchy damage has been revealed. We aimed to determine if the nutritional quality of foliage could predict the browsing preferences of an invasive mammalian herbivore, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), in a temperate forest in New Zealand. We quantified the spatial and temporal variation in four key aspects of the foliar chemistry (total nitrogen, available nitrogen, in vitro dry matter digestibility and tannin effect) of 275 trees representing five native tree species. Simultaneously, we assessed the severity of browsing damage caused by possums on those trees in order to relate selective browsing to foliar nutritional quality. We found significant spatial and temporal variation in nutritional quality among individuals of each tree species examined, as well as among tree species. There was a positive relationship between the available nitrogen concentration of foliage (a measure of in vitro digestible protein) and the severity of damage caused by browsing by possums. This study highlights the importance of nutritional quality, specifically, the foliar available nitrogen concentration of individual trees, in predicting the impact of an invasive mammal. Revealing the underlying cause of patchy browsing by an invasive mammal provides new insights for conservation of native forests and targeted control of invasive herbivores in forest ecosystems.

A modelling framework for predicting the optimal balance between control and surveillance effort in the local eradication of tuberculosis in New Zealand wildlife.

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) impacts livestock farming in New Zealand, where the introduced marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the wildlife maintenance host for Mycobacterium bovis. New Zealand has implemented a campaign to control TB using a co-ordinated programme of livestock diagnostic testing and large-scale culling of possums, with the long-term aim of TB eradication. For management of the disease in wildlife, methods that can optimise the balance between control and surveillance effort will facilitate the objective of eradication on a fixed or limited budget. We modelled and compared management options to optimise the balance between the two activities necessary to achieve and verify eradication of TB from New Zealand wildlife: the number of lethal population control operations required to halt the M. bovis infection cycle in possums, and the subsequent surveillance effort needed to confidently declare TB freedom post-control. The approach considered the costs of control and surveillance, as well as the potential costs of re-control resulting from false declaration of TB freedom. The required years of surveillance decreased with increasing numbers of possum lethal control operations but the overall time to declare TB freedom depended on additional factors, such as the probability of freedom from disease after control and the probability of success of mop-up control, i.e. retroactive culling following detection of persistent disease in the residual possum population. The total expected cost was also dependent on a number of factors, many of which had wide cost ranges, suggesting that an optimal strategy is unlikely to be singular and fixed, but will likely vary for each different area being considered. Our approach provides a simple framework that considers the known and potential costs of possum control and TB surveillance, enabling managers to optimise the balance between these two activities to achieve and prove eradication of a wildlife disease, or the pest species that transmits it, in the most expedient and economic way. This cost- and risk-evaluation approach may be applicable to other wildlife disease problems where limited management funds exist.

The ontogeny of bumblebee flight trajectories: from naïve explorers to experienced foragers.

Understanding strategies used by animals to explore their landscape is essential to predict how they exploit patchy resources, and consequently how they are likely to respond to changes in resource distribution. Social bees provide a good model for this and, whilst there are published descriptions of their behaviour on initial learning flights close to the colony, it is still unclear how bees find floral resources over hundreds of metres and how these flights become directed foraging trips. We investigated the spatial ecology of exploration by radar tracking bumblebees, and comparing the flight trajectories of bees with differing experience. The bees left the colony within a day or two of eclosion and flew in complex loops of ever-increasing size around the colony, exhibiting Lévy-flight characteristics constituting an optimal searching strategy. This mathematical pattern can be used to predict how animals exploring individually might exploit a patchy landscape. The bees' groundspeed, maximum displacement from the nest and total distance travelled on a trip increased significantly with experience. More experienced bees flew direct paths, predominantly flying upwind on their outward trips although forage was available in all directions. The flights differed from those of naïve honeybees: they occurred at an earlier age, showed more complex looping, and resulted in earlier returns of pollen to the colony. In summary bumblebees learn to find home and food rapidly, though phases of orientation, learning and searching were not easily separable, suggesting some multi-tasking.

Unexpected consequences of control: competitive vs. predator release in a four-species assemblage of invasive mammals.

Invasive species are frequently the target of eradication or control programmes to mitigate their impacts. However, manipulating single species in isolation can lead to unexpected consequences for other species, with outcomes such as mesopredator release demonstrated both theoretically and empirically in vertebrate assemblages with at least two trophic levels. Less is known about the consequences of species removal in more complex assemblages where a greater number of interacting invaders increases the potential for selective species removal to result in unexpected changes in community structure. Using a replicated Before-After Control-Impact field experiment with a four-species assemblage of invasive mammals we show that species interactions in the community are dominated by competition rather than predation. There was no measurable response of two mesopredators (rats and mice) following control of the top predator (stoats), but there was competitive release of rats following removal of a herbivore (possums), and competitive release of mice following removal of rats.