HIV programme sustainability in Southern and Eastern Africa and the changing role of external assistance for health.

High human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-prevalence countries in Southern and Eastern Africa continue to receive substantial external assistance (EA) for HIV programming, yet countries are at risk of transitioning out of HIV aid without achieving epidemic control. We sought to address two questions: (1) to what extent has HIV EA in the region been programmed and delivered in a way that supports long-term sustainability and (2) how should development agencies change operational approaches to support long-term, sustainable HIV control? We conducted 20 semi-structured key informant interviews with global and country-level respondents coupled with an analysis of Global Fund budget data for Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia (from 2017 until the present). We assessed EA practice along six dimensions of sustainability, namely financial, epidemiological, programmatic, rights-based, structural and political sustainability. Our respondents described HIV systems' vulnerability to donor departure, as well as how development partner priorities and practices have created challenges to promoting long-term HIV control. The challenges exacerbated by EA patterns include an emphasis on treatment over prevention, limiting effects on new infection rates; resistance to service integration driven in part by 'winners' under current EA patterns and challenges in ensuring coverage for marginalized populations; persistent structural barriers to effectively serving key populations and limited capacity among organizations best positioned to respond to community needs; and the need for advocacy given the erosion of political commitment by the long-term and substantive nature of HIV EA. Our recommendations include developing a robust investment case for primary prevention, providing operational support for integration processes, investing in local organizations and addressing issues of political will. While strategies must be locally crafted, our paper provides initial suggestions for how EA partners could change operational approaches to support long-term HIV control and the achievement of universal health coverage.

Investigating the quality of HIV rapid testing practices in public antenatal health care facilities, South Africa.

Monitoring HIV prevalence using antenatal HIV sentinel surveillance is important for efficient epidemic tracking, programme planning and resource allocation. HIV sentinel surveillance usually employs unlinked anonymous HIV testing which raises ethical, epidemiological and public health challenges in the current era of universal test and treat. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that countries should consider using routine prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) data for surveillance. We audited antenatal care clinics to assess the quality of HIV rapid testing practices as the first step to assess whether South Africa is ready to utilize PMTCT programme data for antenatal HIV surveillance. In 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in 360 randomly sampled antenatal care clinics using the adapted WHO Stepwise-Process-for-Improving-the-Quality-of-HIV-Rapid-Testing (SPI-RT) checklist. We calculated median percentage scores within a domain (domain-specific median score), and across all domains (overall median percentage scores). The latter was used to classify sites according to five implementation levels; (from 0:<40% to 4: 90% or higher). Of 346 (96.1%) facilities assessed, an overall median percentage score of 62.1% (inter-quartile range (IQR): 50.8-71.9%) was obtained. The lowest domain-specific median percentage scores were obtained under training/certification (35% IQR: 10.0-50.0%) and external quality assurance (12.5% IQR: 0.0-50.0%), respectively. The majority (89%) of sites had an overall median score at level 2 or below; of these, 37% required improvement in specific areas and 6.4% in all areas. Facilities in districts implementing the HIV Rapid Test Quality Improvement Initiative and supported by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) had significantly higher median overall scores (65.6% IQR: 53.9-74.2%) (P-value from rank sum test: <0.001) compared with non-PEPFAR-supported facilities (56.6% IQR:47.7-66.0%). We found sub-optimal implementation of HIV rapid testing practices. We recommend the expansion of the PEPFAR-funded Rapid Test Continuous Quality Improvement (RTCQI) support to all antenatal care testing sites.

Avoiding the Road to Nowhere: Policy Insights on Scaling up and Sustaining Digital Health.

Digital health solutions offer tremendous potential to enhance the reach and quality of health services and population-level outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While the number of programs reaching scale increases yearly, the long-term sustainability for most remains uncertain. In this article, as researchers and implementors, we draw on experiences of designing, implementing and evaluating digital health solutions at scale in Africa and Asia, and provide examples from India and South Africa to illustrate ten considerations to support scale and sustainability of digital health solutions in LMICs. Given the investments being made in digital health solutions and the urgent concurrent needs to strengthen health systems to ensure their responsiveness to marginalized populations in LMICs, we cannot afford to go down roads that 'lead to nowhere'. These ten considerations focus on drivers of equity and innovation, the foundations for a digital health ecosystem, and the elements for systems integration. We urge technology enthusiasts to consider these issues before and during the roll-out of large-scale digital health initiatives to navigate the complexities of achieving scale and enabling sustainability.

CRP (C-Reactive Protein) in Outcome Prediction After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and the Role of Machine Learning.

Background and Purpose: Outcome prediction after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is challenging. CRP (C-reactive protein) has been reported to be associated with outcome, but it is unclear if this is independent of other predictors and applies to aSAH of all grades. Therefore, the role of CRP in aSAH outcome prediction models is unknown. The purpose of this study is to assess if CRP is an independent predictor of outcome after aSAH, develop new prognostic models incorporating CRP, and test whether these can be improved by application of machine learning. Methods: This was an individual patient-level analysis of data from patients within 72 hours of aSAH from 2 prior studies. A panel of statistical learning methods including logistic regression, random forest, and support vector machines were used to assess the relationship between CRP and modified Rankin Scale. Models were compared with the full Subarachnoid Hemmorhage International Trialists' (SAHIT) prediction tool of outcome after aSAH and internally validated using cross-validation. Results: One thousand and seventeen patients were included for analysis. CRP on the first day after ictus was an independent predictor of outcome. The full SAHIT model achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.831. Addition of CRP to the predictors of the full SAHIT model improved model performance (AUC, 0.846, P=0.01). This improvement was not enhanced when learning was performed using a random forest (AUC, 0.807), but was with a support vector machine (AUC of 0.960, P <0.001). Conclusions: CRP is an independent predictor of outcome after aSAH. Its inclusion in prognostic models improves performance, although the magnitude of improvement is probably insufficient to be relevant clinically on an individual patient level, and of more relevance in research. Greater improvements in model performance are seen with support vector machines but these models have the highest classification error rate on internal validation and require external validation and calibration.

Recent HIV infection among pregnant women in the 2017 antenatal sentinel cross-sectional survey, South Africa: Assay-based incidence measurement.

INTRODUCTION: New HIV infection during pre-conception and pregnancy is a significant contributor of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa. This study estimated HIV incidence (defined as new infection within the last one year from the time of the survey which included both new infections occurred during pregnancy or just before pregnancy) among pregnant women and described the characteristics of recently infected pregnant women at national level. METHODS: Between 1 October and 15 November 2017, we conducted a national cross-sectional survey among pregnant women aged 15-49 years old attending antenatal care at 1,595 public facilities. Blood specimens were collected from pregnant women and tested for HIV in a centralised laboratory. Plasma viral load and Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunosorbent Assay (LAg) tests were further performed on HIV positive specimens to differentiate between recent and long-term infections. Recent infection was defined as infection that occurred within one year from the date of collection of blood specimen for the survey. Data on age, age of partner, and marital status were collected through interviews. Women whose specimens were classified as recent by LAg assay and with viral loads >1,000 copies/mL were considered as recently infected. The calculated proportion of HIV positive women with recent infection was adjusted for assay-specific parameters to estimate annual incidence. Survey multinomial logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with being recently infected using HIV negative women as a reference group. Age-disparate relationship was defined as having a partner 5 or more years older. RESULTS: Of 10,049 HIV positive participants with LAg and viral load data, 1.4% (136) were identified as recently infected. The annual HIV incidence was 1.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-1.7). In multivariable analyses, being single (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.8-6.2) or cohabiting (aOR: 3.8, 95% CI: 1.8-7.7), compared to being married as well as being in an age-disparate relationship among young women (aOR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2.0-4.7; reference group: young women (15-24years) whose partners were not 5 years or more older) were associated with higher odds of recent infection. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to previous studies among pregnant women, the incidence estimated in this study was substantially lower. However, the UNAIDS target to reduce incidence by 75% by 2020 (which is equivalent to reducing incidence to <1%) has not been met. The implementation of HIV prevention and treatment interventions should be intensified, targeting young women engaged in age-disparate relationship and unmarried women to fast track progress towards the UNAIDS target.

Reported infant feeding practices and contextual influences on breastfeeding: qualitative interviews with women registered to MomConnect in three South African provinces.

BACKGROUND: Global guidelines recommend exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for the first 6 months of life. South African EBF rates have steadily increased but still only average 32% for infants below 6 months of age. Malnutrition and developmental delays continue to contribute substantially to the morbidity and mortality of South African children. MomConnect, a national mHealth messaging system used to send infant and maternal health messages during and after pregnancy, has a specific focus on improving rates of breastfeeding and has achieved high rates of population coverage. METHODS: For this qualitative study, we interviewed women who were registered to MomConnect to investigate their breastfeeding and other infant feeding practices, decision-making pre- and post-delivery, and the role of the health system, family members and the wider community in supporting or detracting from breastfeeding intentions. Data were collected from February-March 2018 in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal, Free State and Gauteng provinces. Framework analysis was conducted to identify common themes. RESULTS: Most women interviewed had breastfed, including HIV-positive women. Even when women had delivered by caesarean section, they had usually been able to initiate breastfeeding a few hours after birth. Understandings of EBF varied in thoroughness and there was some confusion about the best way to cease breastfeeding. Most women felt well-equipped to make infant feeding decisions and to stick to their intentions, but returning to work or school sometimes prevented 6 months of EBF. Advice from the health system (both via clinics and MomConnect) was considered helpful and supportive in encouraging EBF to 6 months, although family influences could thwart these intentions, especially for younger women. Mothers reported a range of breastfeeding information sources that influenced their choices, including social media. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to improve EBF rates must include consideration of the social and economic environment surrounding women. Interventions that focus only on improving women's knowledge are valuable but insufficient on their own. Attention should also be paid to infant behaviors, and how these affect women's breastfeeding choices. Finally, although there is strong local policy support for EBF, more rigorous implementation of these and other broader changes to create a more enabling structural environment ought to be prioritized.

Awareness of HIV-positive status and linkage to treatment prior to pregnancy in the "test and treat" era: A national antenatal sentinel survey, 2017, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Knowledge of HIV status in South Africa (SA) is reported to be 90% among people living with HIV. National level estimates could mask population-specific levels, which are critical to monitor program coverage and potential impact. Using data from the 2017 national antenatal sentinel survey, we assessed knowledge of HIV-positive status, initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and socio-demographic characteristics associated with knowledge of HIV-positive status prior to the current pregnancy among women attending antenatal care. METHODS: Between 1 October and 15 November 2017, a nationally representative sample of 32,716 pregnant women were enrolled from 1,595 public health facilities selected from all districts of SA. Data on age, gravidity, knowledge of HIV-positive status and ART initiation prior to pregnancy were extracted from medical records. A blood sample was collected from each woman regardless of prior knowledge of HIV status or ART history, and tested for HIV in the laboratory. All HIV-positive pregnant women enrolled in the survey were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. Multivariable survey logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with knowledge of HIV-positive status prior to the current pregnancy. RESULTS: Of 10,065 eligible HIV-positive women, 60.8% (95% confidence interval (CI):59.9%-61.7%) knew their HIV status prior to the current pregnancy, of whom 91.1% (95% CI: 90.4%-91.7%) initiated ART prior to the current pregnancy. Knowledge of HIV-positive status was lower among adolescent girls and young women (15-24 years) (38.9%) and primigravid women (40.5%) compared with older women (35-49 years) (75.5%) and multigravid women (64.7%). In a multivariable analysis, significant effect modification was found between gravidity and age (P value = 0.047). Being in the age group 15-24 years compared to the age group 35-49 years decreased the odds of knowing HIV-positive status by 80% (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.2, 95% CI:0.1-0.4) among primigravid women and by 60%(AOR: 0.4, 95% CI:0.3-0.4) among multigravid women. CONCLUSION: Knowledge of HIV-positive status prior to the current pregnancy fell short of the target of 90% among pregnant women living with HIV. This was especially low among adolescent girls and young women, highlighting the gap in youth friendly reproductive health and HIV testing services.

Viral suppression and factors associated with failure to achieve viral suppression among pregnant women in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To describe viral load levels among pregnant women and factors associated with failure to achieve viral suppression (viral load ≤50 copies/ml) during pregnancy. DESIGN: Between 1 October and 15 November 2017, a cross-sectional survey was conducted among 15-49-year-old pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) at 1595 nationally representative public facilities. METHODS: Blood specimens were taken from each pregnant woman and tested for HIV. Viral load testing was done on all HIV-positive specimens. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from medical records or self-reported. Survey logistic regression examined factors associated with failure to achieve viral suppression. RESULT: Of 10 052 HIV-positive participants with viral load data, 56.2% were virally suppressed. Participants initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) prior to pregnancy had higher viral suppression (71.0%) by their third trimester compared with participants initiating ART during pregnancy (59.3%). Booking for ANC during the third trimester vs. earlier: [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.4-2.3], low frequency of ANC visits (AOR for 2 ANC visits vs. ≥4 ANC visits: 2.0, 95% CI:1.7-2.4), delayed initiation of ART (AOR for ART initiated at the second trimester vs. before pregnancy:2.2, 95% CI:1.8-2.7), and younger age (AOR for 15-24 vs. 35-49 years: 1.4, 95% CI:1.2-1.8) were associated with failure to achieve viral suppression during the third trimester. CONCLUSION: Failure to achieve viral suppression was primarily associated with late ANC booking and late initiation of ART. Efforts to improve early ANC booking and early ART initiation in the general population would help improve viral suppression rates among pregnant women. In addition, the study found, despite initiating ART prior to pregnancy, more than one quarter of participants did not achieve viral suppression in their third trimester. This highlights the need to closely monitor viral load and strengthen counselling and support services for ART adherence.

Assessment of readiness to transition from antenatal HIV surveillance surveys to PMTCT programme data-based HIV surveillance in South Africa: The 2017 Antenatal Sentinel HIV Survey.

OBJECTIVE: South Africa has used antenatal HIV surveys for HIV surveillance in pregnant women since 1990. We assessed South Africa's readiness to transition to programme data based antenatal HIV surveillance with respect to PMTCT uptake, accuracy of point-of-care rapid testing (RT) and selection bias with using programme data in the context of the 2017 antenatal HIV survey. METHODS: Between 1 October and 15 November 2017, the national survey was conducted in 1,595 public antenatal facilities selected using stratified multistage cluster sampling method. Results of point-of-care RT were obtained from medical records. Blood samples were taken from eligible pregnant women and tested for HIV using immunoassays (IA) in the laboratory. Descriptive statistics were used to report on: PMTCT uptake; agreement between HIV point-of-care RT and laboratory-based HIV-1 IA; and selection bias associated with using programme data for surveillance. RESULTS: PMTCT HIV testing uptake was high (99.8%). The positive percent agreement (PPA) between RT and IA was lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) benchmark (97.6%) at 96.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 95.9%-96.6%). The negative percent agreement was above the WHO benchmark (99.5%), at 99.7% (95% CI: 99.6%-99.7%) nationally. PPA markedly varied by province (92.9%-98.3%). Selection bias due to exclusion of participants with no RT results was within the recommended threshold at 0.3%. CONCLUSION: For the three components assessed, South Africa was close to meeting the WHO standard for transitioning to routine RT data for antenatal HIV surveillance. The wide variations in PPA across provinces should be addressed.

The MomConnect Nurses and Midwives Support Platform (NurseConnect): A Qualitative Process Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, mobile health has steadily increased in low-income and middle-income countries. However, few platforms have been able to sustainably scale up like the MomConnect program in South Africa. NurseConnect was created as a capacity building component of MomConnect, aimed at supporting nurses and midwives in maternal and child health. The National Department of Health has committed to expanding NurseConnect to all nurses across the country, and an evaluation of the current user experience was conducted to inform a successful scale up. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the perception and use of NurseConnect by nurses and midwives to produce feedback that can be used to optimize the user experience as the platform continues to scale up. METHODS: We conducted focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with 110 nurses and midwives from 18 randomly selected health care facilities across South Africa. Questions focused on mobile phone use, access to medical information and their experience with NurseConnect registration, as well as the content and different platforms. RESULTS: All participants had mobile phones and communication through calls and messaging was the main use in both personal and work settings. Of 110 participants, 108 (98.2%) had data-enabled phones, and the internet, Google, and apps (South African National Department of Health Guidelines, iTriage, Drugs.com) were commonly used, especially to find information in the work setting. Of 110 participants, 62 (56.4%) were registered NurseConnect users and liked the message content, especially listeriosis and motivational messages, which created behavioral change in some instances. The mobisite and helpdesk, however, were underutilized because of a lack of information surrounding these platforms. Some participants did not trust medical information from websites and had more confidence in apps, while others associated a "helpdesk" with a call-in service, not a messaging one. Many of the unregistered participants had not heard of NurseConnect, and some cited data and time constraints as barriers to both registration and uptake. CONCLUSIONS: Mobile and smartphone penetration was very high, and participants often used their phone to find medical information. The NurseConnect messages were well-liked by all registered participants; however, the mobisite and helpdesk were underutilized owing to a lack of information and training around these platforms. Enhanced marketing and training initiatives that optimize existing social networks, as well as the provision of data and Wi-Fi, should be explored to ensure that registration improves, and that users are active across all platforms.

Mobile health messaging service and helpdesk for South African mothers (MomConnect): history, successes and challenges.

MomConnect is a flagship programme of the South African National Department of Health that has reached over 1.5 million pregnant women. Using mobile technology, MomConnect provides pregnant and postpartum women with twice-weekly health information text messages as well as access to a helpdesk for patient queries and feedback. In just 3 years, MomConnect has been taken to scale to reach over 95% of public health facilities and has reached 63% of all pregnant women attending their first antenatal appointment. The helpdesk has received over 300 000 queries at an average of 250 per day from 6% of MomConnect users. The service is entirely free to its users. The rapid deployment of MomConnect has been facilitated by strong government leadership, and an ecosystem of mobile health implementers who had experience of much of the content and technology required. An early decision to design MomConnect for universal coverage has required the use of text-based technologies (short messaging service and Unstructured Supplementary Service Data) that are accessible via even the most basic mobile phones, but cumbersome to use and costly at scale. Unlike previous mobile messaging services in South Africa, MomConnect collects the user's identification number and facility code during registration, enabling future linkages with other health and population databases and geolocated feedback. MomConnect has catalysed additional efforts to strengthen South Africa's digital health architecture. The rapid growth in smartphone penetration presents new opportunities to reduce costs, increase real-time data collection and expand the reach and scope of MomConnect to serve health workers and other patient groups.

User assessments and the use of information from MomConnect, a mobile phone text-based information service, by pregnant women and new mothers in South Africa.

MomConnect was designed to provide crucial health information to mothers during pregnancy and in the early years of child rearing in South Africa. The design drew on the success of the Mobile Alliance for Maternal Action's programme in South Africa, as well as a growing list of mobile health (mHealth) interventions implemented internationally. Services such as MomConnect are dependent on user acceptability as all engagements are voluntary, meaning that tools have to be easy to use and useful to be successful. This paper describes the evaluation of the tool by pregnant women and new mothers using the tool. A purposive sample of 32 individual semistructured interviews and 7 focus groups were conducted, across five provinces in South Africa. All the sessions were transcribed and then analysed using a contextualised interpretative approach, with the assistance of Atlas.ti. The women were consistently positive about MomConnect, attaching high value to the content of the messages and the medium in which they were delivered. The system was found to work well, with minor problems in some language translations. Respondents were enthusiastic about the messages, stating that the information was of great use and made them feel empowered in their role as a mother, with some saving the messages to use as a resource or to share with others. The most significant problems related to network coverage. There was strong support for this intervention to continue. Given the user acceptability of mHealth interventions, MomConnect appeared to meet the target of identifying and responding to the recipient's needs.

Designing for scale: optimising the health information system architecture for mobile maternal health messaging in South Africa (MomConnect).

MomConnect is a national initiative coordinated by the South African National Department of Health that sends text-based mobile phone messages free of charge to pregnant women who voluntarily register at any public healthcare facility in South Africa. We describe the system design and architecture of the MomConnect technical platform, planned as a nationally scalable and extensible initiative. It uses a health information exchange that can connect any standards-compliant electronic front-end application to any standards-compliant electronic back-end database. The implementation of the MomConnect technical platform, in turn, is a national reference application for electronic interoperability in line with the South African National Health Normative Standards Framework. The use of open content and messaging standards enables the architecture to include any application adhering to the selected standards. Its national implementation at scale demonstrates both the use of this technology and a key objective of global health information systems, which is to achieve implementation scale. The system's limited clinical information, initially, allowed the architecture to focus on the base standards and profiles for interoperability in a resource-constrained environment with limited connectivity and infrastructural capacity. Maintenance of the system requires mobilisation of national resources. Future work aims to use the standard interfaces to include data from additional applications as well as to extend and interface the framework with other public health information systems in South Africa. The development of this platform has also shown the benefits of interoperability at both an organisational and technical level in South Africa.

Self-enrolment antenatal health promotion data as an adjunct to maternal clinical information systems in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

Information systems designed to support health promotion in pregnancy, such as the MomConnect programme, are potential sources of clinical information which can be used to identify pregnancies prospectively and early on. In this paper we demonstrate the feasibility and value of linking records collected through the MomConnect programme, to an emergent province-wide health information exchange in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, which already enumerates pregnancies from a range of other clinical data sources. MomConnect registrations were linked to pregnant women known to the public health services using the limited identifiers collected by MomConnect. Three-quarters of MomConnect registrations could be linked to existing pregnant women, decreasing over time as recording of the national identifier decreased. The MomConnect records were usually the first evidence of pregnancy in pregnancies which were subsequently confirmed by other sources. Those at lower risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes were more likely to register. In some cases, MomConnect was the only evidence of pregnancy for a patient. In addition, the MomConnect records provided gestational age information and new and more recently updated contact numbers to the existing contact registry. The pilot integration of the data in the Western Cape Province of South Africa demonstrates how a client-facing system can augment clinical information systems, especially in contexts where electronic medical records are not widely available.

Optimising mHealth helpdesk responsiveness in South Africa: towards automated message triage.

In South Africa, a national-level helpdesk was established in August 2014 as a social accountability mechanism for improving governance, allowing recipients of public sector services to send complaints, compliments and questions directly to a team of National Department of Health (NDoH) staff members via text message. As demand increases, mechanisms to streamline and improve the helpdesk must be explored. This work aims to evaluate the need for and feasibility of automated message triage to improve helpdesk responsiveness to high-priority messages. Drawing from 65 768 messages submitted between October 2016 and July 2017, the quality of helpdesk message handling was evaluated via detailed inspection of (1) a random sample of 481 messages and (2) messages reporting mistreatment of women, as identified using expert-curated keywords. Automated triage was explored by training a naïve Bayes classifier to replicate message labels assigned by NDoH staff. Classifier performance was evaluated on 12 526 messages withheld from the training set. 90 of 481 (18.7%) NDoH responses were scored as suboptimal or incorrect, with median response time of 4.0 hours. 32 reports of facility-based mistreatment and 39 of partner and family violence were identified; NDoH response time and appropriateness for these messages were not superior to the random sample (P>0.05). The naïve Bayes classifier had average accuracy of 85.4%, with ≥98% specificity for infrequently appearing (<50%) labels. These results show that helpdesk handling of mistreatment of women could be improved. Keyword matching and naïve Bayes effectively identified uncommon messages of interest and could support automated triage to improve handling of high-priority messages.

Unpacking the performance of a mobile health information messaging program for mothers (MomConnect) in South Africa: evidence on program reach and messaging exposure.

Despite calls to address broader evidence gaps in linking digital technologies to outcome and impact level health indicators, limited attention has been paid to measuring processes pertaining to the performance of programs. In this paper, we assess the program reach and message exposure of a mobile health information messaging program for mothers (MomConnect) in South Africa. In this descriptive study, we draw from system generated data to measure exposure to the program through registration attempts and conversions, message delivery, opt-outs and drop-outs. Using a logit model, we additionally explore determinants for early registration, opt-outs and drop-outs. From August 2014 to April 2017, 1 159 431 women were registered to MomConnect; corresponding to half of women attending antenatal care 1 (ANC1) and nearly 60% of those attending ANC1 estimated to own a mobile phone. In 2016, 26% of registrations started to get women onto MomConnect did not succeed. If registration attempts were converted to successful registrations, coverage of ANC1 attendees would have been 74% in 2016 and 86% in 2017. When considered as percentage of ANC1 attendees with access to a mobile phone, addressing conversion challenges bring registration coverage to an estimated 83%-89% in 2016 and 97%-100% in 2017. Among women registered, nearly 80% of expected short messaging service messages were received. While registration coverage and message delivery success rates exceed those observed for mobile messaging programs elsewhere, study findings highlight opportunities for program improvement and reinforce the need for rigorous and continuous monitoring of delivery systems.

The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modelling the impact of achieving the Fast-Track targets and what it will take to get there.

INTRODUCTION: In 2014, city leaders from around the world endorsed the Paris Declaration on Fast-Track Cities, pledging to achieve the 2020 and 2030 HIV targets championed by UNAIDS. The City of Johannesburg - one of South Africa's metropolitan municipalities and also a health district - has over 600,000 people living with HIV (PLHIV), more than any other city worldwide. We estimate what it would take in terms of programmatic targets and costs for the City of Johannesburg to meet the Fast-Track targets, and demonstrate the impact that this would have. METHODS: We applied the Optima HIV epidemic and resource allocation model to demographic, epidemiological and behavioural data on 26 sub-populations in Johannesburg. We used data on programme costs and coverage to produce baseline projections. We calculated how many people must be diagnosed, put onto treatment and maintained with viral suppression to achieve the 2020 and 2030 targets. We also estimated how treatment needs - and therefore fiscal commitments - could be reduced if the treatment targets are combined with primary HIV prevention interventions (voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), an expanded condom programme, and comprehensive packages for female sex workers (FSW) and young females). RESULTS: If current programmatic coverage were maintained, Johannesburg could expect 303,000 new infections and 96,000 AIDS-related deaths between 2017 and 2030 and 769,000 PLHIV by 2030. Achieving the Fast-Track targets would require an additional 135,000 diagnoses and 232,000 people on treatment by 2020 (an increase in around 80% over 2016 treatment numbers), but would avert 176,000 infections and 56,500 deaths by 2030. Assuming stable ART unit costs, this would require ZAR 29 billion (USD 2.15 billion) in cumulative treatment investments over the 14 years to 2030. Plausible scale-ups of other proven interventions (VMMC, condom distribution and FSW strategies) could yield additional reductions in new infections (between 4 and 15%), and in overall treatment investment needs. Scaling up VMMC in line with national targets is found to be cost-effective in the medium term. CONCLUSIONS: The scale-up in testing and treatment programmes over this decade has been rapid, but these efforts must be doubled to reach 2020 targets. Strategic investments in proven interventions will help Johannesburg achieve the treatment targets and be on track to end AIDS by 2030.

Introduction of Routine HIV Birth Testing in the South African National Consolidated Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: South Africa represents the first high-burden setting to introduce routine virologic testing at birth within its early infant diagnosis program, implemented in June 2015. National HIV birth testing coverage, intrauterine transmission rates and case rates for the first year since introduction of universal birth testing are reported. METHODS: HIV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test data from June 2015 to May 2016 were extracted from the National Health Laboratory Service's central data repository by year, month, age, result and geographic location. Birth testing was defined as all HIV PCR tests performed at <7 days of life; coverage as the proportion of all HIV-exposed neonates born who were tested at birth; estimated intrauterine transmission rate as the percentage of HIV PCR positive tests in HIV-exposed neonates tested and case rates as the number of HIV PCR positive tests per 100,000 total live births. RESULTS: Between June 2015 and May 2016, the South African national monthly birth testing coverage increased from 39% (8636 tests) to 93% (20,479 tests). During this period, the number of positive tests at birth increased from 114 to 234 per month, equating to a national intrauterine transmission rate of 1.1% and a birth case rate of 247 per 100,000 live births. CONCLUSIONS: Universal birth testing for all HIV-exposed neonates is rapidly being achieved in South Africa, facilitating earlier detection of intrauterine infected neonates. However, the successful linkage into care of HIV-infected neonates and their treatment outcomes remain to be assessed.

Toward elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa: how best to monitor early infant infections within the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission Program.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has utilized three independent data sources to measure the impact of its program for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV. These include the South African National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), the District Health Information System (DHIS), and South African PMTCT Evaluation (SAPMTCTE) surveys. We compare the results of each, outlining advantages and limitations, and make recommendations for monitoring transmission rates as South Africa works toward achieving elimination of mother-to-child transmission (eMTCT). METHODS: HIV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test data, collected between 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014, from the NHLS, DHIS and SAPMTCTE surveys were used to compare early mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rates in South Africa. Data from the NHLS and DHIS were also used to compare early infant diagnosis (EID) coverage. RESULTS: The age-adjusted NHLS early MTCT rates of 4.1% in 2010, 2.6% in 2011 and 2.3% in 2012 consistently fall within the 95% confidence interval as measured by three SAPMTCTE surveys in corresponding time periods. Although DHIS data over-estimated MTCT rates in 2010, the MTCT rate declines thereafter to converge with age-adjusted NHLS MTCT rates by 2012. National EID coverage from NHLS data increases from around 52% in 2010 to 87% in 2014. DHIS data over-estimates EID coverage, but this can be corrected by employing an alternative estimate of the HIV-exposed infant population. CONCLUSION: NHLS and DHIS, two routine data sources, provide very similar early MTCT rate estimates that fall within the SAPMTCTE survey confidence intervals for 2012. This analysis validates the usefulness of routine data sources to track eMTCT in South Africa.