Woody vegetation dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Andes from 2001 to 2014: Satellite image interpretation and expert validation.

The interactions between climate and land-use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range-restricted species, and high-beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001-2014. For the analyses we created annual land-cover/land-use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km2 , and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive-forest gain, negative-forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000-1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid-elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural-human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real-time land-use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.

Operational Hydrological Forecasting during the IPHEx-IOP Campaign - Meet the Challenge.

An operational streamflow forecasting testbed was implemented during the Intense Observing Period (IOP) of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx-IOP) in May-June 2014 to characterize flood predictability in complex terrain. Specifically, hydrological forecasts were issued daily for 12 headwater catchments in the Southern Appalachians using the Duke Coupled surface-groundwater Hydrology Model (DCHM) forced by hourly atmospheric fields and QPFs (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) produced by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. Previous day hindcasts forced by radar-based QPEs (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates) were used to provide initial conditions for present day forecasts. This manuscript first describes the operational testbed framework and workflow during the IPHEx-IOP including a synthesis of results. Second, various data assimilation approaches are explored a posteriori (post-IOP) to improve operational (flash) flood forecasting. Although all flood events during the IOP were predicted by the IPHEx operational testbed with lead times of up to 6 hours, significant errors of over- and, or under-prediction were identified that could be traced back to the QPFs and subgrid-scale variability of radar QPEs. To improve operational flood prediction, three data-merging strategies were pursued post-IOP: 1) the spatial patterns of QPFs were improved through assimilation of satellite-based microwave radiances into NU-WRF; 2) QPEs were improved by merging raingauge observations with ground-based radar observations using bias-correction methods to produce streamflow hindcasts and associated uncertainty envelope capturing the streamflow observations, and 3) river discharge observations were assimilated into the DCHM to improve streamflow forecasts using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the fixed-lag Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EnKS), and the Asynchronous EnKF (i.e. AEnKF) methods. Both flood hindcasts and forecasts were significantly improved by assimilating discharge observations into the DCHM. Specifically, Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) values as high as 0.98, 0.71 and 0.99 at 15-min time-scales were attained for three headwater catchments in the inner mountain region demonstrating that the assimilation of discharge observations at the basin's outlet can reduce the errors and uncertainties in soil moisture at very small scales. Success in operational flood forecasting at lead times of 6, 9, 12 and 15hrs was also achieved through discharge assimilation with NSEs of 0.87, 0.78, 0.72 and 0.51, respectively. Analysis of experiments using various data assimilation system configurations indicates that the optimal assimilation time window depends both on basin properties and storm-specific space-time-structure of rainfall, and therefore adaptive, context-aware, configurations of the data assimilation system are recommended to address the challenges of flood prediction in headwater basins.

Dissecting coronary angiogenesis: 3D co-culture of cardiomyocytes with endothelial or mesenchymal cells.

In embryogenesis, coronary blood vessels are formed by vasculogenesis from epicardium-derived progenitors. Subsequently, growing or regenerating myocardium increases its vasculature by angiogenesis, forming new vessels from the pre-existing ones. Recently, cell therapies for myocardium ischemia that used different protocols have given promising results, using either extra-cardiac blood vessel cell progenitors or stimulating the cardiac angiogenesis. We have questioned whether cardiomyocytes could sustain both vasculogenesis and angiogenesis. We used a 3D culture model of tissue-like spheroids in co-cultures of cardiomyocytes supplemented either with endothelial cells or with bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stroma cells. Murine foetal cardiomyocytes introduced into non-adherent U-wells formed 3D contractile structures. They were coupled by gap junctions. Cardiomyocytes segregated inside the 3D structure into clumps separated by connective tissue septa, rich in fibronectin. Three vascular endothelial growth factor isoforms were produced (VEGF 120, 164 and 188). When co-cultured with human umbilical cord endothelial cells, vascular structures were produced in fibronectin-rich external layer and in radial septa, followed by angiogenic sprouting into the cardiomyocyte microtissue. Presence of vascular structures led to the maintenance of long-term survival and contractile capacity of cardiac microtissues. Conversely, bone marrow mesenchymal cells formed isolated cell aggregates, which progressively expressed the endothelial markers von Willebrand's antigen and CD31. They proceeded to typical vasculogenesis forming new blood vessels organised in radial pattern. Our results indicate that the in vitro 3D model of cardiomyocyte spheroids provides the two basic elements for formation of new blood vessels: fibronectin and VEGF. Within the myocardial environment, endothelial and mesenchymal cells can proceed to formation of new blood vessels either through angiogenesis or vasculogenesis, respectively.