RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The predicted growth of Canadians aged 65+ and the resultant rise in the demand for specialized geriatric services (SGS) requires physician resource planning. We updated the 2011 Canadian Geriatrics Society physician resource inventory and created projections for 2025 and 2030. METHODS: The number and full-time equivalents (FTEs) of geriatricians and Care of the Elderly (COE) physicians working in SGS were determined. FTE counts for 2025 and 2030 were estimated by accounting for retirements and trainees. A ratio of 1.25/10,000 population 65+ was used to predict physician resource requirements. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2019 the number of geriatricians and COE physicians increased from 276 (235.8 FTEs) and 128 (89.9 FTEs), respectively, to 376 (319.6 FTEs) and 354 (115.5 FTEs). This increase did not keep pace with the 65+ population growth. The current gap between supply and need is expected to increase. DISCUSSION: The physician supply gap is projected to widen in 2025 and 2030. Increased recruitment and interdisciplinary team-based care, supported by enhanced funding models, and full integration of COE physicians in SGS could reduce this increasing gap. In contrast to pediatrician supply in Canada, the specialist physician resources available to the population 65+ reflect a disparity.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The number of older adults with complex health needs in Ontario is growing. The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care requested a resource mapping project to assess the current 2018 and projected 2025 number of specialist physician resources. METHODS: Geriatric specialist physicians were defined as geriatricians, geriatric psychiatrists, and Care of the Elderly (COE) physicians. We determined the current number of geriatricians, geriatric psychiatrists, and COEs and clinical full-time-equivalent complement (CFTE) for geriatric medicine and geriatric psychiatry specialists. We projected the number of new trainees expected to enter practice and the number of physicians expected to retire by 2025. We compared these numbers and projections against established specialist/population ratios for geriatricians and geriatric psychiatrists. RESULTS: There was a deficit of geriatricians and geriatric psychiatrists (geriatricians: CFTE deficit of 150.5; geriatric psychiatrists: CFTE deficit of 116.3). In 2025, the projected CFTE deficit of geriatricians will increase to at least 210.35 and geriatric psychiatrists to 194.6. Only about 30% of COE physicians work in direct support of specialized services for the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant current and anticipated undersupply in the required number of geriatricians, geriatric psychiatrists, and COE physicians to meet anticipated population demand.
