Serological surveillance reveals patterns of exposure to H5 and H7 influenza A viruses in European poultry.

Influenza A viruses of H5 and H7 subtype in poultry can circulate subclinically and subsequently mutate from low to high pathogenicity with potentially devastating economic and welfare consequences. European Union Member States undertake surveillance of commercial and backyard poultry for early detection and control of subclinical H5 and H7 influenza A infection. This surveillance has moved towards a risk-based sampling approach in recent years; however, quantitative measures of relative risk associated with risk factors utilized in this approach are necessary for optimization. This study describes serosurveillance for H5 and H7 influenza A in domestic and commercial poultry undertaken in the European Union from 2004 to 2010, where a random sampling and thus representative approach to serosurveillance was undertaken. Using these representative data, this study measured relative risk of seropositivity across poultry categories and spatially across the EU. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Domestic waterfowl, game birds, fattening turkeys, ratites, backyard poultry and the 'other' poultry category holdings had relatively increased probability of H5 and/or H7 influenza A seropositivity, compared to laying-hen holdings. Amongst laying-hen holdings, free-range rearing was associated with increased probability of H7 seropositivity. Spatial analyses detected 'hotspots' for H5 influenza A seropositivity in western France and England, and H7 influenza A seropositivity in Italy and Belgium, which may be explained by the demographics and distribution of poultry categories. Findings suggest certain poultry category holdings are at increased risk of subclinical H5 and/or H7 influenza A circulation, and free-range rearing increases the likelihood of exposure to H7 influenza A. These findings may be used in further refining risk-based surveillance strategies and prioritizing management strategies in influenza A outbreaks.

Modeling the association of space, time, and host species with variation of the HA, NA, and NS genes of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from birds in Romania in 2005-2007.

Molecular characterization studies of a diverse collection of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have demonstrated that AIVs' greatest genetic variability lies in the HA, NA, and NS genes. The objective here was to quantify the association between geographical locations, periods of time, and host species and pairwise nucleotide variation in the HA, NA, and NS genes of 70 isolates of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) collected from October 2005 to December 2007 from birds in Romania. A mixed-binomial Bayesian regression model was used to quantify the probability of nucleotide variation between isolates and its association with space, time, and host species. As expected for the three target genes, a higher probability of nucleotide differences (odds ratios [ORs] > 1) was found between viruses sampled from places at greater geographical distances from each other, viruses sampled over greater periods of time, and viruses derived from different species. The modeling approach in the present study maybe useful in further understanding the molecular epidemiology of H5N1 HPAI virus in bird populations. The methodology presented here will be useful in predicting the most likely genetic distance for any of the three gene segments of viruses that have not yet been isolated or sequenced based on space, time, and host species during the course of an epidemic.