Data synthesis for environmental management: A case study of Chesapeake Bay.

Synthesizing large, complex data sets to inform resource managers towards effective environmental stewardship is a universal challenge. In Chesapeake Bay, a well-studied and intensively monitored estuary in North America, the challenge of synthesizing data on water quality and land use as factors related to a key habitat, submerged aquatic vegetation, was tackled by a team of scientists and resource managers operating at multiple levels of governance (state, federal). The synthesis effort took place over a two-year period (2016-2018), and the results were communicated widely to a) scientists via peer review publications and conference presentations; b) resource managers via web materials and workshop presentations; and c) the public through newspaper articles, radio interviews, and podcasts. The synthesis effort was initiated by resource managers at the United States Environmental Protection Agencys' Chesapeake Bay Program and 16 scientist participants were recruited from a diversity of organizations. Multiple short, immersive workshops were conducted regularly to conceptualize the problem, followed by data analysis and interpretation that supported the preparation of the synthetic products that were communicated widely. Reflections on the process indicate that there are a variety of structural and functional requirements, as well as enabling conditions, that need to be considered to achieve successful outcomes from synthesis efforts.

Development of a multimetric water quality Indicator for tracking progress towards the achievement of Chesapeake Bay water quality standards.

A multimetric water quality standards (WQS) attainment indicator (MMI) was created to assess the habitat quality of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries. The indicator uses metrics of dissolved oxygen concentrations, water clarity assessments, underwater bay grass acreages, and season-specific chlorophyll a distributions. This suite of metrics is recognized as symptomatic of eutrophication and responsive to nutrient and sediment management actions. Habitat criteria for these metrics were established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to protect the survival, growth, and reproduction of tidal bay living resources. The criteria were adopted into state WQS used to define outcome targets of the regulatory 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). Direct accounting of monitoring results compared with state standards would be the most direct measure of water quality status related to achieving habitat health goal conditions under the TMDL. However, the Chesapeake Bay Program long-term water quality monitoring program that supports Clean Water Act 303d water quality impairment assessments does not provide sufficient measurement resolution across all temporal scales represented in these TMDL-related WQS. Recognizing data and analysis gaps, we developed the indicator to provide estimates of WQS attainment for the Chesapeake Bay. The structure of the indicator uses metrics that have been measured consistently with the historical Chesapeake Bay tidal water quality data collections since 1985. The ability to compute scores on contemporary and historical data will provide for bay-wide and spatially explicit long-term trend evaluations of habitat quality.

Long-term nutrient reductions lead to the unprecedented recovery of a temperate coastal region.

Humans strongly impact the dynamics of coastal systems, yet surprisingly few studies mechanistically link management of anthropogenic stressors and successful restoration of nearshore habitats over large spatial and temporal scales. Such examples are sorely needed to ensure the success of ecosystem restoration efforts worldwide. Here, we unite 30 consecutive years of watershed modeling, biogeochemical data, and comprehensive aerial surveys of Chesapeake Bay, United States to quantify the cascading effects of anthropogenic impacts on submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV), an ecologically and economically valuable habitat. We employ structural equation models to link land use change to higher nutrient loads, which in turn reduce SAV cover through multiple, independent pathways. We also show through our models that high biodiversity of SAV consistently promotes cover, an unexpected finding that corroborates emerging evidence from other terrestrial and marine systems. Due to sustained management actions that have reduced nitrogen concentrations in Chesapeake Bay by 23% since 1984, SAV has regained 17,000 ha to achieve its highest cover in almost half a century. Our study empirically demonstrates that nutrient reductions and biodiversity conservation are effective strategies to aid the successful recovery of degraded systems at regional scales, a finding which is highly relevant to the utility of environmental management programs worldwide.

Influence of Reservoir Infill on Coastal Deep Water Hypoxia.

Ecological restoration of the Chesapeake through the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load (TMDL) requires the reduction of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads in the Chesapeake watershed because of the tidal water quality impairments and damage to living resources they cause. Within the Chesapeake watershed, the Conowingo Reservoir has been filling in with sediment for almost a century and is now in a state of near-full capacity called . The development of the Chesapeake TMDL in 2010 was with the assumption that the Conowingo Reservoir was still effectively trapping sediment and nutrients. This is now known not to be the case. In a TMDL, pollutant loads beyond the TMDL allocation, which are brought about by growth or other conditions, must be offset. Using the analysis tools of the Chesapeake TMDL for assessing the degree of water quality standard attainment, the estimated nutrient and sediment loads from a simulated dynamic equilibrium infill condition of the Conowingo Reservoir were determined. The influence on Chesapeake water quality by a large storm and scour event of January 1996 on the Susquehanna River was estimated, and the same storm and scour events were also evaluated in the more critical living resource period of June. An analysis was also made on the estimated influence of more moderate high flow events. The infill of the Conowingo reservoir had estimated impairments of water quality, primarily on deep-water and deep-channel dissolved oxygen, because of increased discharge and transport of organic and particulate inorganic nutrients from the Conowingo Reservoir.