Persistently high HBsAg levels during HBeAg-seropositive stage predict lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND: High hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) level predicts hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with low viral load. The role of longitudinal HBsAg levels in predicting HCC in HBeAg-positive CHB patients remains unknown. METHOD: HBeAg-positive CHB participants from the REVEAL-HBV cohort with ≥2 HBsAg measurements before HBeAg seroclearance were enrolled. Group-based trajectory modelling identified distinct HBsAg trajectory groups during a median of 11 years of HBeAg-positive status. Cox regression models were applied for investigating independent predictors of HCC and estimating adjusted hazard ratio (HRadj) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 319 patients were enrolled and classified by HBsAg trajectory patterns as (A) persistently high group (n = 72): HBsAg persistently ≥104 IU/mL, and (B) non-stationary group (n = 233): low HBsAg at baseline or declining to <104 IU/mL during the follow-up. Group B had higher proportions of abnormal ALT levels, HBV genotype C and basal core mutation than group A (p < 0.05); age at entry and gender were comparable. The annual incidence of HCC in group A and group B were 0.37% and 1.16%, respectively (p = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, age >40 years (HRadj [95% CI] = 4.11 [2.26-7.48]), genotype C (HRadj [95% CI] = 4.39 [1.96-9.81]) and the non-stationary group (HRadj [95% CI] = 3.50 [1.49-8.21]) were independent predictors of HCC. Basal core promoter mutation was the only risk factor of HCC in the persistently high HBsAg group (HRadj [95% CI] = 32.75 [5.41-198.42]). CONCLUSION: Patients with persistently high HBsAg levels during HBeAg-seropositive stage represent a unique population with low risk of HCC development.

Rapid Decline Rather Than Absolute Level of HBsAg Predicts Its Seroclearance in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients From Taiwanese Communities.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance leads to favorable outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B. HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL with HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year have been reportedly predictive of HBsAg loss. This study aimed to use the REVEAL-hepatitis B virus cohort to validate and simplify this prediction rule and verify whether the simplified algorithm can be used among various clinical subgroups. METHOD: We analyzed 707 patients with untreated chronic hepatitis B who had 3 or more HBsAg measurements within 5 years before HBsAg seroclearance or last visit, greater than 1 year apart from one another. Rapid HBsAg decline was defined as HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year or >1 log 10 IU/mL in 2 years. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were compared to assess the predictability of HBsAg seroclearance. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 41 of the 707 patients cleared serum HBsAg. HBsAg levels at all measurements were lower ( P < 0.0001) and HBsAg decline was greater ( P < 0.0001) in patients with seroclearance compared with non-seroclearance patients. The predictive accuracy of predicting 1-year HBsAg loss using only the rapid decline algorithm (sensitivity = 0.4412, specificity = 0.9792, positive predictive value = 0.5172, negative predictive value = 0.972) was the same as the model combining rapid HBsAg decline and HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL. The simplified algorithm including only the rapid decline performed similarly among various levels of HBsAg, hepatitis B virus DNA, and alanine aminotransferase and was independent of inactive carrier state. DISCUSSION: HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL/yr was a practical predictor of HBsAg seroclearance within 1 year in our community-based untreated cohort.

CSF biomarkers in Olmsted County: Evidence of 2 subclasses and associations with demographics.

OBJECTIVE: We studied interrelationships between CSF biomarkers and associations with APOE ε4 genotype, demographic variables, vascular variables, and clinical diagnosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota. METHODS: We included 774 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging participants (693 cognitively unimpaired [CU]; 71 with mild cognitive impairment [MCI]). CSF ß-amyloid 42 (Aß42), total tau (t-tau), and hyperphosphorylated tau (p-tau) were analyzed using Aß42 CSF, t-tau CSF, and p-tau (181P) CSF electrochemiluminescence immunoassays. Bivariate mixture models were used to evaluate latent classes. We used linear regression models to evaluate independent associations of APOE ε4, demographic factors, cardiovascular risk, and diagnosis with CSF biomarker levels. Results were weighted back to the Olmsted County population. RESULTS: Interrelationships between CSF Aß42 and p-tau/t-tau were consistent with 2 latent classes in the general population. In subgroup 1 (n = 547 [71%]), we found a strong positive correlation between Aß42 and p-tau (ρ = 0.81), while the correlation was much smaller in group 2 (ρ = 0.26, n = 227 [29%]). Group 2 was associated with older age, APOE ε4 genotype, a diagnosis of MCI, and elevated amyloid PET. Overall, APOE ε4 genotype and MCI were associated with Aß42, while age was associated with p-tau/t-tau. There were no associations with sex, education, or vascular risk. CONCLUSION: We hypothesize the population without dementia can be subdivided into participants with and without biological Alzheimer disease (AD) based on the combination of CSF Aß42 and p-tau/t-tau (represented also by the p-tau/t-tau/Aß42 ratio). In those without biological AD, common factors such as CSF dynamics may cause a positive correlation between CSF Aß42 and p-tau/t-tau, while AD leads to dissociation of these proteins.

Cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers measured by Elecsys assays compared to amyloid imaging.

INTRODUCTION: Levels of amyloid ß peptide 42 (Aß42), total tau, and phosphorylated tau-181 are well-established cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease, but variability in manual plate-based assays has limited their use. We examined the relationship between CSF biomarkers, as measured by a novel automated immunoassay platform, and amyloid positron emission tomography. METHODS: CSF samples from 200 individuals underwent separate analysis for Aß42, total tau, and phosphorylated tau-181 with automated Roche Elecsys assays. Aß40 was measured with a commercial plate-based assay. Positron emission tomography with Pittsburgh Compound B was performed less than 1 year from CSF collection. RESULTS: Ratios of CSF biomarkers (total tau/Aß42, phosphorylated tau-181/Aß42, and Aß42/Aß40) best discriminated Pittsburgh Compound B-positive from Pittsburgh Compound B-negative individuals. DISCUSSION: CSF biomarkers and amyloid positron emission tomography reflect different aspects of Alzheimer's disease brain pathology, and therefore, less-than-perfect correspondence is expected. Automated assays are likely to increase the utility of CSF biomarkers.

Serum Levels of M2BPGi as Short-Term Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

This study examines the role of M2BPGi, a novel seromarker for chronic hepatitis, in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among untreated chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. In this nested case-control study, 1070 samples were assayed for M2BPGi, including 357 samples from HCC cases, and 713 samples from non-HCC controls, collected at various times throughout follow-up. HCC case samples were stratified according to years prior to diagnosis. Associations between M2BPGi and HCC were examined with multivariate logistic regression. M2BPGi, α-fetoprotein (AFP), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels were significant independent short-term predictors of HCC, while M2BPGi was insignificant in long-term analyses. Compared to M2BPGi levels <1.0 cut-off index (COI), those with levels ≥2.0 COI had multivariate odds ratios (95% CI) for HCC of 7.40 (2.40-22.78), 6.46 (2.58-16.18), and 2.24 (0.97-5.15), respectively, for prediction of HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and ≥5 years. Higher proportions of individuals had M2BPGi levels ≥2.0 COI in samples closer to HCC diagnosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for models with M2BPGi, AFP, and HBsAg levels predicting HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and >5 years were 0.84, 0.81, and 0.75. M2BPGi is a strong and independent short-term predictor of HCC in CHB patients.

Alzheimer's biomarkers in daily practice (ABIDE) project: Rationale and design.

INTRODUCTION: The Alzheimer's biomarkers in daily practice (ABIDE) project is designed to translate knowledge on diagnostic tests (magnetic resonance imaging [MRI], cerebrospinal fluid [CSF], and amyloid positron emission tomography [PET]) to daily clinical practice with a focus on mild cognitive impairment (MCI). METHODS: ABIDE is a 3-year project with a multifaceted design and is structured into interconnected substudies using both quantitative and qualitative research methods. RESULTS: Based on retrospective data, we develop personalized risk estimates for MCI patients. Prospectively, we collect MRI and CSF data from 200 patients from local memory clinics and amyloid PET from 500 patients in a tertiary setting, to optimize application of these tests in daily practice. Furthermore, ABIDE will develop strategies for optimal patient-clinician conversations. DISCUSSION: Ultimately, this will result in a set of practical tools for clinicians to support the choice of diagnostic tests and facilitate the interpretation and communication of their results.

Blood-based biomarkers in Alzheimer disease: Current state of the science and a novel collaborative paradigm for advancing from discovery to clinic.

The last decade has seen a substantial increase in research focused on the identification of blood-based biomarkers that have utility in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Blood-based biomarkers have significant advantages of being time- and cost-efficient as well as reduced invasiveness and increased patient acceptance. Despite these advantages and increased research efforts, the field has been hampered by lack of reproducibility and an unclear path for moving basic discovery toward clinical utilization. Here we reviewed the recent literature on blood-based biomarkers in AD to provide a current state of the art. In addition, a collaborative model is proposed that leverages academic and industry strengths to facilitate the field in moving past discovery only work and toward clinical use. Key resources are provided. This new public-private partnership model is intended to circumvent the traditional handoff model and provide a clear and useful paradigm for the advancement of biomarker science in AD and other neurodegenerative diseases.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers for Alzheimer's Disease: A View of the Regulatory Science Qualification Landscape from the Coalition Against Major Diseases CSF Biomarker Team.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) drug development is burdened with the current requirement to conduct large, lengthy, and costly trials to overcome uncertainty in patient progression and effect size on treatment outcome measures. There is an urgent need for the discovery, development, and implementation of novel, objectively measured biomarkers for AD that would aid selection of the appropriate subpopulation of patients in clinical trials, and presumably, improve the likelihood of successfully evaluating innovative treatment options. Amyloid deposition and tau in the brain, which are most commonly assessed either in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) or by molecular imaging, are consistently and widely accepted. Nonetheless, a clear gap still exists in the accurate identification of subjects that truly have the hallmarks of AD. The Coalition Against Major Diseases (CAMD), one of 12 consortia of the Critical Path Institute (C-Path), aims to streamline drug development for AD and related dementias by advancing regulatory approved drug development tools for clinical trials through precompetitive data sharing and adoption of consensus clinical data standards. This report focuses on the regulatory process for biomarker qualification, briefly comments on how it contrasts with approval or clearance of companion diagnostics, details the qualifications currently available to the field of AD, and highlights the current challenges facing the landscape of CSF biomarkers qualified as hallmarks of AD. Finally, it recommends actions to accelerate regulatory qualification of CSF biomarkers that would, in turn, improve the efficiency of AD therapeutic development.

Risk and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma for chronic hepatitis B patients with newly developed cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most studies on risk predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients do not confirm the date at cirrhosis diagnosis. We examined HCC risk and predictors in chronic hepatitis B patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis. METHODS: 4155 HBsAg seropositive participants were followed every 6-12 months with seromarker testing. Cirrhosis was ascertained through abdominal ultrasonography and computerized linkage with national health insurance profiles. Predictors included in Cox proportional hazards models were age, HBeAg serostatus, serum levels of HBsAg, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and ALDH2 rs671 genotypes. RESULTS: A total of 301 patients developed cirrhosis, 76 of whom later developed HCC after 2462 person-years, showing an average annual incidence of 3.1%. The 15-year cumulative HCC risk among cirrhotics was 39.8% with a lifetime (30-80 years old) HCC risk of 78.5%. The adjusted HR's (95% CI, P-value) were 14.26 (3.17-64.08, P = 0.0005) for age at cirrhosis diagnosis of ≥60 years (vs 30-39 years), 2.85 (1.49-5.46, P = 0.0015) for HBeAg seropositivity (vs HBeAg seronegativity with HBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL), 0.35 (0.20-0.59, P < 0.0001) for AA/AG genotypes of rs671 (vs GG genotype), 3.68 (1.70-7.99, P = 0.0010) for ALT levels >45 U/L (vs <15 U/L), 3.52 (1.78-6.93, P = 0.0003) for AFP levels >20 ng/mL (vs <10 ng/mL), and 2.64 (1.38-5.07, P = 0.0035) for HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/mL (vs <1000 IU/mL among HBeAg seronegatives). CONCLUSIONS: Older age, GG genotype of ALDH2 rs671, HBeAg seropositivity, and elevated serum levels of ALT, AFP, and HBsAg at cirrhosis diagnosis were HCC risk predictors in cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients.

Serum Levels of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen and DNA Can Predict Inactive Carriers With Low Risk of Disease Progression.

UNLABELLED: Serum levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA (≤2000 IU/mL) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (<1000 IU/mL) have been shown to distinguish inactive carriers with high accuracy. The goal of this study was to validate the predictability of one-time measurement of quantitative HBsAg and HBV DNA levels for inactive carrier status and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) progression in a community-based cohort. This study included 1529 participants chronically infected with HBV genotype B or C from the REVEAL-HBV cohort. They were ascertained as inactive or active CHB after 18 months of follow-up. Validity of the one-time measurement was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curves, while associations with clinical outcomes were calculated with Cox proportional hazards regressions. The one-time baseline measurement of HBsAg <1000 IU/mL and HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL distinguished inactive carriers from active CHB with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 71%, 85%, 83%, 74%, and 78%, respectively. Those identified as inactive carriers using the one-time baseline measurement had multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.63) and 0.36 (0.23-0.56) for hepatocellular carcinoma and liver cirrhosis, respectively, and an adjusted rate ratio of 6.97 (95% CI, 5.21-9.33) for HBsAg seroclearance. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting these outcomes using the one-time definition were similar to those obtained when using long-term follow-up defined carrier status for prediction. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the predictability of a one-time combined HBsAg and HBV DNA measurement for future inactive carriers. This single-point strategy provides new and complementary information useful for management of patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. (Hepatology 2016;64:381-389).

Incorporating Serum Level of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen or Omitting Level of Hepatitis B Virus DNA Does not Affect Calculation of Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients Without Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tests for hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA are expensive, and levels of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) can help determine the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. We investigated how adding data to knowing the level of HBsAg or excluding measurement of HBV DNA affected the accuracy of the Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) scoring system in determining the risk for HCC. METHODS: We collected data from 3584 patients with chronic HBV infection who were positive for HBsAg, free of cirrhosis, and participated in the community-based Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV cohort (208 cases of HCC) from 1991 through 1992; they were followed up until December 31, 2008. Data from this cohort were used to derive our scoring system. We validated our system using data from 2688 HBsAg-seropositive patients (191 cases of HCC) who participated in the hospital-based Elucidation of Risk Factors for Disease Control or Advancement in Taiwanese Hepatitis B Carriers (ERADICATE-B) study at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1985 through 2000; they were followed up until December 31, 2010. We also validated the system using data from 426 patients with chronic HBV infection who participated in the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) study (46 cases of HCC) from 1997 through 2000; patients were followed up for a median of 225 weeks. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and calibration charts. RESULTS: When data on HBsAg were added to the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B study who developed HCC within 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-1.02), 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.86), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.84), respectively. It identified patients in the CUHK study who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75-0.95), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.70-0.93), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.870), respectively. When data on HBV DNA were removed from the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81-1.0), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.68-0.85), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82), respectively. It identified patents in the CUHK cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.92), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.91), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87). These modified systems identified patients who developed HCC with similar levels of accuracy as the original REACH-B score (P > .05 in tests of noninferiority). CONCLUSIONS: Including data on serum level of HBsAg or removing data on level of HBV DNA do not alter the accuracy of the REACH-B scoring system in determining HCC risk in patients with chronic HBV infection without cirrhosis. It might be cost effective to replace the test for HBV DNA with assays to measure HBsAg in determining HCC risk. These modified scoring systems might replace the REACH-B system in specific situations.

Predicting Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Surface Antigen Seroclearance in HBV e Antigen-Negative Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B: External Validation of a Scoring System.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance is the ultimate serological end point in chronic hepatitis B. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction score for spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance in HBV e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients with chronic hepatitis B due to HBV genotype B or C. METHODS: The development cohort included 2491 untreated participants from the community-based REVEAL-HBV study, who were HBeAg negative, anti-hepatitis C virus negative, and cirrhosis free. The independent validation cohort consisted of 1934 hospital-based individuals from the National Taiwan University Hospital. Clinical markers included in the model were age and serum HBV DNA and HBsAg levels. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create the prediction model. RESULTS: A prediction score ranging from 0 to 27 was developed. Predicted probabilities of 5- and 10-year HBsAg seroclearance ranged from 0.95% to 30.49% and from 2.58% to 62.52%, respectively. When applied to the independent validation cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the 5- and 10-year prediction of HBsAg seroclearance in the validation cohort were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], .76-.88) and 0.74 (95% CI, .70-.78). Model fit was still adequate, according to Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit tests. CONCLUSIONS: A clinically applicable prediction score for HBsAg seroclearance was developed and externally validated. This model can assist clinicians in further stratifying risk groups.

Distinct seromarkers predict different milestones of chronic hepatitis B progression.

UNLABELLED: Spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA undetectability are important milestones of chronic hepatitis B and major treatment endpoints of antiviral therapy. This study investigated the role of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels and established models for predicting HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. A total of 2,139 HBsAg-seropositive, anti-HCV-seronegative, and treatment-naïve participants without liver cirrhosis at study entry were included. Spontaneous HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were analyzed in 431 HBeAg-seropositive participants and 1,708 HBeAg-seronegative participants, respectively. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox proportional hazard models were converted into integer scores for predicting seroclearance and predictive accuracy was assessed with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The HBV DNA level was the most important predictor of HBeAg seroclearance but serum HBsAg level was the most significant predictor of HBV DNA undetectability. Compared to individuals with HBsAg levels ≥ 10,000 IU/mL, the multivariate-adjusted rate ratio (95% confidence interval) of HBV DNA undetectability was 1.20 (0.62-2.30), 2.49 (1.31-4.75), and 6.08 (3.19-11.61) for those with serum HBsAg levels of 1,000-9,999, 100-999, and <100 IU/mL, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the prediction models for predicting the 5- and 10-year probabilities of HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were 0.85 (0.80-0.90) and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) for HBeAg seroclearance, and 0.77 (0.72-0.82) and 0.73 (0.70-0.76) for HBV DNA undetectability. CONCLUSION: Prediction models incorporating important host and virus factors can predict HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels rather than HBV DNA is the most important predictor of spontaneous HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels should be monitored in the management of patients with HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B.

Spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B seromarkers and subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The associations between long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and spontaneous seroclearance of HBV e antigen (HBeAg), HBV DNA and HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) have never been examined by a prospective study using serially measured seromarkers. This study aimed to assess the importance of spontaneous HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg seroclearance in the prediction of HCC risk. METHODS: This study included 2946 HBsAg seropositive individuals who were seronegative for antibodies against HCV and free of liver cirrhosis. Serial serum samples collected at study entry and follow-up health examinations were tested for HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the HRs of developing HCC after seroclearance of HBV markers. RESULTS: The HR (95% CI) of developing HCC after seroclearance of HBeAg, HBV DNA and HBsAg during follow-up was 0.63 (0.38 to 1.05), 0.24 (0.11 to 0.57) and 0.18 (0.09 to 0.38), respectively, after adjustment for age, gender and serum level of alanine aminotransferase at study entry. High HBV DNA levels at the seroclearance of HBeAg (mean±SD, 4.35±1.64 log10 IU/mL) may explain the non-significant association between HBeAg seroclearance and HCC risk. Among HBeAg seronegative participants with detectable serum HBV DNA at study entry, the lifetime (30-75-years-old) cumulative incidence of HCC was 4.0%, 6.6% and 14.2%, respectively, for those with seroclearance of both HBV DNA and HBsAg, seroclearance of HBV DNA only, and seroclearance of neither. CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous seroclearance of HBV DNA and HBsAg are important predictors of reduced HCC risk.

Prediction models of long-term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B patients: risk scores integrating host and virus profiles.

UNLABELLED: Integrating host and HBV characteristics, this study aimed to develop models for predicting long-term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients. This analysis included hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-seropositive and anti-HCV-seronegative participants from the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer in HBV (R.E.V.E.A.L.-HBV) cohort. Newly developed cirrhosis and HCC were ascertained through regular follow-up ultrasonography, computerized linkage with national health databases, and medical chart reviews. Two-thirds of the participants were allocated for risk model derivation and another one-third for model validation. The risk prediction model included age, gender, HBV e antigen (HBeAg) serostatus, serum levels of HBV DNA, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), quantitative serum HBsAg levels, and HBV genotypes. Additionally, the family history was included in the prediction model for HCC. Cox's proportional hazards regression coefficients for cirrhosis and HCC predictors were converted into risk scores. The areas under receiver operating curve (AUROCs) were used to evaluate the performance of risk models. Elder age, male, HBeAg, genotype C, and increasing levels of ALT, HBV DNA, and HBsAg were all significantly associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis and HCC. The risk scores estimated from the derivation set could accurately categorize participants with low, medium, and high cirrhosis and HCC risk in the validation set (P<0.001). The AUROCs for predicting 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year cirrhosis risk ranged 0.83-0.86 and 0.79-0.82 for the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The AUROC for predicting 5-year, 10-year, 15-year risk of HCC ranged 0.86-0.89 and 0.84-0.87 in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSION: The risk prediction models of cirrhosis and HCC by integrating host and HBV profiles have excellent prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability. They may be used for clinical management of chronic hepatitis B patients.

A predictive scoring system for the seroclearance of HBsAg in HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B patients with genotype B or C infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss. METHODS: This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared. RESULTS: Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance.