Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave.

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014-2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Spatio-temporal persistence of zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Alaska.

Spatial structuring of mid-trophic level forage communities in the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) is poorly understood, even though it has clear implications for the health of fisheries and marine wildlife populations. Here, we test the hypothesis that summertime (May-August) mesozooplankton communities are spatially-persistent across years of varying ocean conditions, including during the marine heatwave of 2014-2016. We use spatial ordinations and hierarchical clustering of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) sampling over 17 years (2000-2016) to (1) characterize typical zooplankton communities in different regions of the GoA, and (2) investigate spatial structuring relative to variation in ocean temperatures and circulation. Five regional communities were identified, each representing distinct variation in the abundance of 18 primary zooplankton taxa: a distinct cluster of coastal taxa on the continental shelf north of Vancouver Island; a second cluster in the western GoA associated with strong currents and cold water east of Unimak Pass; a shelf break cluster rich in euphausiids found at both the eastern and western margins of the GoA; a broad offshore cluster of abundant pelagic zooplankton in the southern GoA gyre associated with stable temperature and current conditions; and a final offshore cluster exhibiting low zooplankton abundance concentrated along the northeastern arm of the subarctic gyre where ocean conditions are dominated by eddy activity. When comparing years of anomalous warm and cold sea surface temperatures, we observed change in the spatial structure in coastal communities, but little change (i.e., spatial persistence) in the northwestern GoA basin. Whereas previous studies have shown within-region variability in zooplankton communities in response to ocean climate, we highlight both consistency and change in regional communities, with interannual variability in shelf communities and persistence in community structure offshore. These results suggest greater variability in coastal food webs than in the central portion of the GoA, which may be important to energy exchange from lower to upper trophic levels in the mesoscale biomes of this ecosystem.

Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes.

Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure capacity across the globe, including the development of new, more automated observing technologies, and encouraging the application of international standards and best practices.

Temperature and zooplankton size structure: climate control and basin-scale comparison in the North Pacific.

The global distribution of zooplankton community structure is known to follow latitudinal temperature gradients: larger species in cooler, higher latitudinal regions. However, interspecific relationships between temperature and size in zooplankton communities have not been fully examined in terms of temporal variation. To re-examine the relationship on a temporal scale and the effects of climate control thereon, we investigated the variation in copepod size structure in the eastern and western subarctic North Pacific in 2000-2011. This report presents the first basin-scale comparison of zooplankton community changes in the North Pacific based on a fully standardized data set obtained from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey. We found an increase in copepod community size (CCS) after 2006-2007 in the both regions because of the increased dominance of large cold-water species. Sea surface temperature varied in an east-west dipole manner, showing the typical Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern: cooling in the east and warming in the west after 2006-2007. The observed positive correlation between CCS and sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific was inconsistent with the conventional interspecific temperature-size relationship. We explained this discrepancy by the geographical shift of the upper boundary of the thermal niche, the 9°C isotherm, of large cold-water species. In the eastern North Pacific, the boundary stretched northeast, to cover a large part of the sampling area after 2006-2007. In contrast, in the western North Pacific, the isotherm location hardly changed and the sampling area remained within its thermal niche throughout the study period, despite the warming that occurred. Our study suggests that while a climate-induced basin-scale cool-warm cycle can alter copepod community size and might subsequently impact the functions of the marine ecosystem in the North Pacific, the interspecific temperature-size relationship is not invariant and that understanding region-specific processes linking climate and ecosystem is indispensable.