Expanding the stdpopsim species catalog, and lessons learned for realistic genome simulations.

Simulation is a key tool in population genetics for both methods development and empirical research, but producing simulations that recapitulate the main features of genomic datasets remains a major obstacle. Today, more realistic simulations are possible thanks to large increases in the quantity and quality of available genetic data, and the sophistication of inference and simulation software. However, implementing these simulations still requires substantial time and specialized knowledge. These challenges are especially pronounced for simulating genomes for species that are not well-studied, since it is not always clear what information is required to produce simulations with a level of realism sufficient to confidently answer a given question. The community-developed framework stdpopsim seeks to lower this barrier by facilitating the simulation of complex population genetic models using up-to-date information. The initial version of stdpopsim focused on establishing this framework using six well-characterized model species (Adrion et al., 2020). Here, we report on major improvements made in the new release of stdpopsim (version 0.2), which includes a significant expansion of the species catalog and substantial additions to simulation capabilities. Features added to improve the realism of the simulated genomes include non-crossover recombination and provision of species-specific genomic annotations. Through community-driven efforts, we expanded the number of species in the catalog more than threefold and broadened coverage across the tree of life. During the process of expanding the catalog, we have identified common sticking points and developed the best practices for setting up genome-scale simulations. We describe the input data required for generating a realistic simulation, suggest good practices for obtaining the relevant information from the literature, and discuss common pitfalls and major considerations. These improvements to stdpopsim aim to further promote the use of realistic whole-genome population genetic simulations, especially in non-model organisms, making them available, transparent, and accessible to everyone.

Tackling the Pangenome Dilemma Requires the Concerted Analysis of Multiple Population Genetic Processes.

The pangenome is the set of all genes present in a prokaryotic population. Most pangenomes contain many accessory genes of low and intermediate frequencies. Different population genetics processes contribute to the shape of these pangenomes, namely selection and fitness-independent processes such as gene transfer, gene loss, and migration. However, their relative importance is unknown and highly debated. Here, we argue that the debate around prokaryotic pangenomes arose due to the imprecise application of population genetics models. Most importantly, two different processes of horizontal gene transfer act on prokaryotic populations, which are frequently confused, despite their fundamentally different behavior. Genes acquired from distantly related organisms (termed here acquiring gene transfer) are most comparable to mutation in nucleotide sequences. In contrast, gene gain within the population (termed here spreading gene transfer) has an effect on gene frequencies that is identical to the effect of positive selection on single genes. We thus show that selection and fitness-independent population genetic processes affecting pangenomes are indistinguishable at the level of single gene dynamics. Nevertheless, population genetics processes are fundamentally different when considering the joint distribution of all accessory genes across individuals of a population. We propose that, to understand to which degree the different processes shaped pangenome diversity, the development of comprehensive models and simulation tools is mandatory. Furthermore, we need to identify summary statistics and measurable features that can distinguish between the processes, where considering the joint distribution of accessory genes across individuals of a population will be particularly relevant.

Neural networks for self-adjusting mutation rate estimation when the recombination rate is unknown.

Estimating the mutation rate, or equivalently effective population size, is a common task in population genetics. If recombination is low or high, optimal linear estimation methods are known and well understood. For intermediate recombination rates, the calculation of optimal estimators is more challenging. As an alternative to model-based estimation, neural networks and other machine learning tools could help to develop good estimators in these involved scenarios. However, if no benchmark is available it is difficult to assess how well suited these tools are for different applications in population genetics. Here we investigate feedforward neural networks for the estimation of the mutation rate based on the site frequency spectrum and compare their performance with model-based estimators. For this we use the model-based estimators introduced by Fu, Futschik et al., and Watterson that minimize the variance or mean squared error for no and free recombination. We find that neural networks reproduce these estimators if provided with the appropriate features and training sets. Remarkably, using the model-based estimators to adjust the weights of the training data, only one hidden layer is necessary to obtain a single estimator that performs almost as well as model-based estimators for low and high recombination rates, and at the same time provides a superior estimation method for intermediate recombination rates. We apply the method to simulated data based on the human chromosome 2 recombination map, highlighting its robustness in a realistic setting where local recombination rates vary and/or are unknown.

Inference of recent admixture using genotype data.

The inference of biogeographic ancestry (BGA) has become a focus of forensic genetics. Misinference of BGA can have profound unwanted consequences for investigations and society. We show that recent admixture can lead to misclassification and erroneous inference of ancestry proportions, using state of the art analysis tools with (i) simulations, (ii) 1000 genomes project data, and (iii) two individuals analyzed using the ForenSeq DNA Signature Prep Kit. Subsequently, we extend existing tools for estimation of individual ancestry (IA) by allowing for different IA in both parents, leading to estimates of parental individual ancestry (PIA), and a statistical test for recent admixture. Estimation of PIA outperforms IA in most scenarios of recent admixture. Furthermore, additional information about parental ancestry can be acquired with PIA that may guide casework.

Efficient ancestry and mutation simulation with msprime 1.0.

Stochastic simulation is a key tool in population genetics, since the models involved are often analytically intractable and simulation is usually the only way of obtaining ground-truth data to evaluate inferences. Because of this, a large number of specialized simulation programs have been developed, each filling a particular niche, but with largely overlapping functionality and a substantial duplication of effort. Here, we introduce msprime version 1.0, which efficiently implements ancestry and mutation simulations based on the succinct tree sequence data structure and the tskit library. We summarize msprime's many features, and show that its performance is excellent, often many times faster and more memory efficient than specialized alternatives. These high-performance features have been thoroughly tested and validated, and built using a collaborative, open source development model, which reduces duplication of effort and promotes software quality via community engagement.

Horizontal gene transfer-mediated bacterial strain variation affects host fitness in Drosophila.

BACKGROUND: How microbes affect host fitness and environmental adaptation has become a fundamental research question in evolutionary biology. To better understand the role of microbial genomic variation for host fitness, we tested for associations of bacterial genomic variation and Drosophila melanogaster offspring number in a microbial Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS). RESULTS: We performed a microbial GWAS, leveraging strain variation in the genus Gluconobacter, a genus of bacteria that are commonly associated with Drosophila under natural conditions. We pinpoint the thiamine biosynthesis pathway (TBP) as contributing to differences in fitness conferred to the fly host. While an effect of thiamine on fly development has been described, we show that strain variation in TBP between bacterial isolates from wild-caught D. melanogaster contributes to variation in offspring production by the host. By tracing the evolutionary history of TBP genes in Gluconobacter, we find that TBP genes were most likely lost and reacquired by horizontal gene transfer (HGT). CONCLUSION: Our study emphasizes the importance of strain variation and highlights that HGT can add to microbiome flexibility and potentially to host adaptation.

A community-maintained standard library of population genetic models.

The explosion in population genomic data demands ever more complex modes of analysis, and increasingly, these analyses depend on sophisticated simulations. Recent advances in population genetic simulation have made it possible to simulate large and complex models, but specifying such models for a particular simulation engine remains a difficult and error-prone task. Computational genetics researchers currently re-implement simulation models independently, leading to inconsistency and duplication of effort. This situation presents a major barrier to empirical researchers seeking to use simulations for power analyses of upcoming studies or sanity checks on existing genomic data. Population genetics, as a field, also lacks standard benchmarks by which new tools for inference might be measured. Here, we describe a new resource, stdpopsim, that attempts to rectify this situation. Stdpopsim is a community-driven open source project, which provides easy access to a growing catalog of published simulation models from a range of organisms and supports multiple simulation engine backends. This resource is available as a well-documented python library with a simple command-line interface. We share some examples demonstrating how stdpopsim can be used to systematically compare demographic inference methods, and we encourage a broader community of developers to contribute to this growing resource.

How to choose sets of ancestry informative markers: A supervised feature selection approach.

Inference of the Biogeographical Ancestry (BGA) of a person or trace relies on three ingredients: (1) a reference database of DNA samples including BGA information; (2) a statistical clustering method; (3) a set of loci which segregate dependent on geographical location, i.e. a set of so-called Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs). We used the theory of feature selection from statistical learning in order to obtain AIMsets for BGA inference. Using simulations, we show that this learning procedure works in various cases, and outperforms ad hoc methods, based on statistics like FST or informativeness for the choice of AIMs. Applying our method to data from the 1000 genomes project (excluding Admixed Americans) we identified an AIMset of 12 SNPs, which gives a vanishing misclassification error on a continental scale, as do other published AIMsets. In fact, cross validation shows that there exists a multitude of sets with comparable performance to the optimal AIMset. On a sub-continental scale, we find a set of 55 SNPs for distinguishing the five European populations. The misclassification error is reduced by a factor of two relative to published AIMsets, but is still 30% and therefore too large in order to be useful in forensic applications.

panX: pan-genome analysis and exploration.

Horizontal transfer, gene loss, and duplication result in dynamic bacterial genomes shaped by a complex mixture of different modes of evolution. Closely related strains can differ in the presence or absence of many genes, and the total number of distinct genes found in a set of related isolates-the pan-genome-is often many times larger than the genome of individual isolates. We have developed a pipeline that efficiently identifies orthologous gene clusters in the pan-genome. This pipeline is coupled to a powerful yet easy-to-use web-based visualization for interactive exploration of the pan-genome. The visualization consists of connected components that allow rapid filtering and searching of genes and inspection of their evolutionary history. For each gene cluster, panX displays an alignment, a phylogenetic tree, maps mutations within that cluster to the branches of the tree and infers gain and loss of genes on the core-genome phylogeny. PanX is available at pangenome.de. Custom pan-genomes can be visualized either using a web server or by serving panX locally as a browser-based application.

The site frequency spectrum of dispensable genes.

The differences between DNA-sequences within a population are the basis to infer the ancestral relationship of the individuals. Within the classical infinitely many sites model, it is possible to estimate the mutation rate based on the site frequency spectrum, which is comprised by the numbers C1,…,Cn-1 where n is the sample size and Cs is the number of site mutations (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, SNPs) which are seen in s genomes. Classical results can be used to compare the observed site frequency spectrum with its neutral expectation, E[Cs]=θ2/s, where θ2 is the scaled site mutation rate. In this paper, we will relax the assumption of the infinitely many sites model that all individuals only carry homologous genetic material. Especially, it is today well-known that bacterial genomes have the ability to gain and lose genes, such that every single genome is a mosaic of genes, and genes are present and absent in a random fashion, giving rise to the dispensable genome. While this presence and absence has been modeled under neutral evolution within the infinitely many genes model in Baumdicker et al. (2010), we link presence and absence of genes with the numbers of site mutations seen within each gene. In this work we derive a formula for the expectation of the joint gene and site frequency spectrum, denoted by Gk,s, the number of mutated sites occurring in exactly s gene sequences, while the corresponding gene is present in exactly k individuals. We show that standard estimators of θ2 for dispensable genes are biased and that the site frequency spectrum for dispensable genes differs from the classical result.

The infinitely many genes model for the distributed genome of bacteria.

The distributed genome hypothesis states that the gene pool of a bacterial taxon is much more complex than that found in a single individual genome. However, the possible fitness advantage, why such genomic diversity is maintained, whether this variation is largely adaptive or neutral, and why these distinct individuals can coexist, remains poorly understood. Here, we present the infinitely many genes (IMG) model, which is a quantitative, evolutionary model for the distributed genome. It is based on a genealogy of individual genomes and the possibility of gene gain (from an unbounded reservoir of novel genes, e.g., by horizontal gene transfer from distant taxa) and gene loss, for example, by pseudogenization and deletion of genes, during reproduction. By implementing these mechanisms, the IMG model differs from existing concepts for the distributed genome, which cannot differentiate between neutral evolution and adaptation as drivers of the observed genomic diversity. Using the IMG model, we tested whether the distributed genome of 22 full genomes of picocyanobacteria (Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus) shows signs of adaptation or neutrality. We calculated the effective population size of Prochlorococcus at 1.01 × 10(11) and predicted 18 distinct clades for this population, only six of which have been isolated and cultured thus far. We predicted that the Prochlorococcus pangenome contains 57,792 genes and found that the evolution of the distributed genome of Prochlorococcus was possibly neutral, whereas that of Synechococcus and the combined sample shows a clear deviation from neutrality.