A mathematical model of Marburg virus disease outbreaks and the potential role of vaccination in control.

BACKGROUND: Marburg virus disease is an acute haemorrhagic fever caused by Marburg virus. Marburg virus is zoonotic, maintained in nature in Egyptian fruit bats, with occasional spillover infections into humans and nonhuman primates. Although rare, sporadic cases and outbreaks occur in Africa, usually associated with exposure to bats in mines or caves, and sometimes with secondary human-to-human transmission. Outbreaks outside of Africa have also occurred due to importation of infected monkeys. Although all previous Marburg virus disease outbreaks have been brought under control without vaccination, there is nevertheless the potential for large outbreaks when implementation of public health measures is not possible or breaks down. Vaccines could thus be an important additional tool, and development of several candidate vaccines is under way. METHODS: We developed a branching process model of Marburg virus transmission and investigated the potential effects of several prophylactic and reactive vaccination strategies in settings driven primarily by multiple spillover events as well as human-to-human transmission. Linelist data from the 15 outbreaks up until 2022, as well as an Approximate Bayesian Computational framework, were used to inform the model parameters. RESULTS: Our results show a low basic reproduction number which varied across outbreaks, from 0.5 [95% CI 0.05-1.8] to 1.2 [95% CI 1.0-1.9] but a high case fatality ratio. Of six vaccination strategies explored, the two prophylactic strategies (mass and targeted vaccination of high-risk groups), as well as a combination of ring and targeted vaccination, were generally most effective, with a probability of potential outbreaks being terminated within 1 year of 0.90 (95% CI 0.90-0.91), 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90), and 0.88 (95% CI 0.87-0.89) compared with 0.68 (0.67-0.69) for no vaccination, especially if the outbreak is driven by zoonotic spillovers and the vaccination campaign initiated as soon as possible after onset of the first case. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that various vaccination strategies can be effective in helping to control outbreaks of MVD, with the best approach varying with the particular epidemiologic circumstances of each outbreak.

Mpox neglect and the smallpox niche: a problem for Africa, a problem for the world.

Mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) is a zoonotic viral disease endemic in parts of Africa. In May, 2022, the world was alerted to circulation of monkeypox virus in many high-income countries outside of Africa. Continued spread resulted in a WHO declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Although there has been much attention on the global outbreak, most of the focus has been on high-income countries outside of Africa, despite the fact that monkeypox virus has been causing disease in parts of Africa for at least 50 years. Furthermore, the long-term consequences of this event, especially the risk that mpox fills the niche vacated through smallpox eradication, have not been sufficiently considered. The heart of the problem is the historical neglect of mpox in Africa where the disease is endemic, and the actual and potential consequences if this neglect is left uncorrected.

Protection, health seeking, or a laissez-passer: Participants' decision-making in an EVD vaccine trial in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

During the 10th Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (2018-2020), two experimental EVD vaccines were deployed in North Kivu. This province has been at the centre of conflict in the region for the last 25 years. Amidst ambivalence towards protracted foreign intervention and controversy about introducing two experimental vaccines, the existing literature has focused on mistrust and 'resistance' towards the Ebola response and vaccines. In this article, we examine why people in the eastern DRC did decide to volunteer for a trial of a second EVD vaccine in North Kivu, despite the controversy. Drawing on ethnographic observation, interviews, and focus groups with trial participants conducted between September 2020 and April 2021, we analyse three motivations for participating: protection, health seeking, and expectations surrounding travel requirements. We make three points. First, participation in vaccine trials may be understood locally to have advantages which have not been considered by the trial, because they go beyond medical considerations and are specific to a particular social setting. Second, despite much of the literature focusing on a causal relationship between rumours and 'vaccine hesitancy', some rumours may in fact encourage participation. Third, material objects associated with trial participation - such as participant vaccine cards - can hold social and political meaning beyond the confines of the vaccine clinic, and influence decisions surrounding participation. Empirical investigation of how medical interventions become entangled in political economies is essential to understanding the perceived functions of participation, and thus the reasons why people volunteer in clinical trials. Participants' narratives about their decision-making provide an insight into how international bioethical debates interact with, but may also stand apart from, the situated social and economic realities driving decision-making around clinical trials on the ground. This highlights the need for ethical approaches that foreground the political, social, and economic context.

Lessons from the pandemic: Responding to emerging zoonotic viral diseases-a Keystone Symposia report.

The COVID-19 pandemic caught the world largely unprepared, including scientific and policy communities. On April 10-13, 2022, researchers across academia, industry, government, and nonprofit organizations met at the Keystone symposium "Lessons from the Pandemic: Responding to Emerging Zoonotic Viral Diseases" to discuss the successes and challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and what lessons can be applied moving forward. Speakers focused on experiences not only from the COVID-19 pandemic but also from outbreaks of other pathogens, including the Ebola virus, Lassa virus, and Nipah virus. A general consensus was that investments made during the COVID-19 pandemic in infrastructure, collaborations, laboratory and manufacturing capacity, diagnostics, clinical trial networks, and regulatory enhancements-notably, in low-to-middle income countries-must be maintained and strengthened to enable quick, concerted responses to future threats, especially to zoonotic pathogens.

Protocol for a phase 3 trial to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of a heterologous, two-dose vaccine for Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

INTRODUCTION: Ebola virus disease (EVD) continues to be a significant public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Large-scale vaccination during outbreaks may reduce virus transmission. We established a large population-based clinical trial of a heterologous, two-dose prophylactic vaccine during an outbreak in eastern DRC to determine vaccine effectiveness. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This open-label, non-randomised, population-based trial enrolled eligible adults and children aged 1 year and above. Participants were offered the two-dose candidate EVD vaccine regimen VAC52150 (Ad26.ZEBOV, Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA)-BN-Filo), with the doses being given 56 days apart. After vaccination, serious adverse events (SAEs) were passively recorded until 1 month post dose 2. 1000 safety subset participants were telephoned at 1 month post dose 2 to collect SAEs. 500 pregnancy subset participants were contacted to collect SAEs at D7 and D21 post dose 1 and at D7, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months post dose 2, unless delivery was before these time points. The first 100 infants born to these women were given a clinical examination 3 months post delivery. Due to COVID-19 and temporary suspension of dose 2 vaccinations, at least 50 paediatric and 50 adult participants were enrolled into an immunogenicity subset to examine immune responses following a delayed second dose. Samples collected predose 2 and at 21 days post dose 2 will be tested using the Ebola viruses glycoprotein Filovirus Animal Non-Clinical Group ELISA. For qualitative research, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions were being conducted with participants or parents/care providers of paediatric participants. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approved by Comité National d'Ethique et de la Santé du Ministère de la santé de RDC, Comité d'Ethique de l'Ecole de Santé Publique de l'Université de Kinshasa, the LSHTM Ethics Committee and the MSF Ethics Review Board. Findings will be presented to stakeholders and conferences. Study data will be made available for open access. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04152486.

A standardised Phase III clinical trial framework to assess therapeutic interventions for Lassa fever.

BACKGROUND: Only one recommendation currently exists for the treatment of Lassa fever (LF), which is ribavirin administered in conjunction with supportive care. This recommendation is primarily based on evidence generated from a single clinical trial that was conducted more than 30 years ago-the methodology and results of which have recently come under scrutiny. The requirement for novel therapeutics and reassessment of ribavirin is therefore urgent. However, a significant amount of work now needs to be undertaken to ensure that future trials for LF can be conducted consistently and reliably to facilitate the efficient generation of evidence. METHODOLOGY: We convened a consultation group to establish the position of clinicians and researchers on the core components of future trials. A Core Eligibility Criteria (CEC), Core Case Definition (CCD), Core Outcome Set (COS) and Core Data Variables (CDV) were developed through the process of a multi-stakeholder consultation that took place using a modified-Delphi methodology. RESULTS: A consensus position was achieved for each aspect of the framework, which accounts for the inclusion of pregnant women and children in future LF clinical trials. The framework consists of 8 core criteria, as well as additional considerations for trial protocols. CONCLUSIONS: This project represents the first step towards delineating the clinical development pathway for new Lassa fever therapeutics, following a period of 40 years without advancement. Future planned projects will bolster the work initiated here to continue the advancement of LF clinical research through a regionally-centred, collaborative methodology, with the aim of delineating a clear pathway through which LF clinical trials can progress efficiently and ensure sustainable investments are made in research capacity at a regional level.

Joint External Evaluation scores and communicable disease deaths: An ecological study on the difference between epidemics and pandemics.

The Joint External Evaluation (JEE) assesses national capacities to implement the International Health Regulations (IHR). Previous studies have found that higher JEE scores are associated with fewer communicable disease deaths. But given the impact of COVID-19 in many countries, including those believed to have developed IHR capacities, the validity of the JEE for pandemic preparedness has been questioned. We constructed univariable and multivariable linear regression models to investigate the relationship between JEE scores and i) deaths from communicable diseases before the pandemic and ii) deaths from COVID-19. We adjusted for country differences in age, health system access, national wealth, health expenditure, democratic governance, government restrictions, pre-pandemic tourist arrivals and testing capacity (estimated by test positivity rates). For COVID-19 deaths, we calculated cumulative deaths per 100,000 at 3, 6 and 12 months into the pandemic. A total of 91 countries were included, with a median JEE score of 50%. On multivariable linear regression the association between JEE scores and log COVID-19 deaths was significant and positive at 3 months (ß 0.05, p = 0.02), becoming statistically non-significant, at 6 (ß 0.02, p = 0.27) and 12 months (ß -0.03, p = 0.19), while the association with log communicable disease deaths was significant and negative (ß -0.03, p = 0.003). A higher Stringency Index was significantly associated with higher log COVID-19 deaths at 3 (ß 0.04, p = 0.003) and 6 (ß 0.04, p = 0.001) months, but not at 12 months (ß 0.02, p = 0.08). Higher test positivity rates were associated with higher log COVID-19 deaths at all time points, at least partially attenuating the positive association between Stringency Index and log COVID-19 deaths. While universal health coverage indices (ß -0.04 p<0.001) and international tourist arrivals were associated with log communicable disease deaths (ß 0.02, p = 0.002), they were not associated with log COVID-19 deaths. Although the same tool is used to assess capacities for both epidemics and pandemics, the JEE may be better suited to small outbreaks of known diseases, compared to pandemics of unknown pathogens.

'Learn from the lessons and don't forget them': identifying transferable lessons for COVID-19 from meningitis A, yellow fever and Ebola virus disease vaccination campaigns.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 vaccines are now being distributed to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global urgency surrounding national vaccination plans. LMICs have significant experience implementing vaccination campaigns to respond to epidemic threats but are often hindered by chronic health system challenges. We sought to identify transferable lessons for COVID-19 vaccination from the rollout of three vaccines that targeted adult groups in Africa and South America: MenAfriVac (meningitis A); 17D (yellow fever) and rVSV-ZEBOV (Ebola virus disease). METHODS: We conducted a rapid literature review and 24 semi-structured interviews with technical experts who had direct implementation experience with the selected vaccines in Africa and South America. We identified barriers, enablers, and key lessons from the literature and from participants' experiences. Interview data were analysed thematically according to seven implementation domains. RESULTS: Participants highlighted multiple components of vaccination campaigns that are instrumental for achieving high coverage. Community engagement is an essential and effective tool, requiring dedicated time, funding and workforce. Involving local health workers is a key enabler, as is collaborating with community leaders to map social groups and tailor vaccination strategies to their needs. Vaccination team recruitment and training strategies need to be enhanced to support vaccination campaigns. Although recognised as challenging, integrating vaccination campaigns with other routine health services can be highly beneficial if well planned and coordinated across health programmes and with communities. CONCLUSION: As supplies of COVID-19 vaccines become available to LMICs, countries need to prepare to efficiently roll out the vaccine, encourage uptake among eligible groups and respond to potential community concerns. Lessons from the implementation of these three vaccines that targeted adults in LMICs can be used to inform best practice for COVID-19 and other epidemic vaccination campaigns.

Policy and planning for large epidemics and pandemics - challenges and lessons learned from COVID-19.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The COVID-19 pandemic is a global catastrophe that has led to untold suffering and death. Many previously identified policy challenges in planning for large epidemics and pandemics have been brought to the fore, and new ones have emerged. Here, we review key policy challenges and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic in order to be better prepared for the future. RECENT FINDINGS: The most important challenges facing policymakers include financing outbreak preparedness and response in a complex political environment with limited resources, coordinating response efforts among a growing and diverse range of national and international actors, accurately assessing national outbreak preparedness, addressing the shortfall in the global health workforce, building surge capacity of both human and material resources, balancing investments in public health and curative services, building capacity for outbreak-related research and development, and reinforcing measures for infection prevention and control. SUMMARY: In recent years, numerous epidemics and pandemics have caused not only considerable loss of life, but billions of dollars of economic loss. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a wake-up call and led to the implementation of relevant policies and countermeasures. Nevertheless, many questions remain and much work to be done. Wise policies and approaches for outbreak control exist but will require the political will to implement them.

A mixed-methods analysis of personal protective equipment used in Lassa fever treatment centres in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever (LF) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa. Lassa virus is maintained in and spread to humans from rodents, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission. Present recommendations for personal protective equipment (PPE) for care of patients with LF generally follow those for filovirus diseases. However, the need for such high-level PPE for LF, which is thought to be considerably less transmissible between humans than filoviruses, is unclear. AIM: In Nigerian Lassa Treatment Centres (LTCs) we aimed to describe current PPE practices, identify barriers and facilitators to implementation of existing guidance, and assess healthcare workers' understanding. This would inform the development of future PPE guidelines for LF. METHODS: We performed a mixed-methods study, including short cross-sectional surveys of PPE used in LTCs, observations of practice, and in-depth interviews with key informants. We described the quantitative data and we conducted a thematic analysis of qualitative data. FINDINGS: Our survey of 74 HCWs found that approximately half reported problems with recommended PPE. In three LTCs PPE was used highly variably. Full PPE, as recommended in Nigeria CDC guidelines, was used in less than a quarter (21%) of interactions. In-depth interviews suggested this was based on availability and HCWs' own risk assessments. CONCLUSION: Without specific guidance on Lassa, the current approach is both resource and labour-intensive, where these are both limited. This has led to low adherence by health care workers, whose own experience indicates lower risk. The evidence-base to inform PPE required for LF must be improved to inform a more tailored approach.

Implementation of the Ebola Virus Persistence in Ocular Tissues and Fluids (EVICT) study: Lessons learned for vision health systems strengthening in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Following the West African Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak of 2013-2016 and more recent EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo, thousands of EVD survivors are at-risk for sequelae including uveitis, which can lead to unremitting inflammation and vision loss from cataract. Because of the known risk of Ebola virus persistence in ocular fluid and the need to provide vision-restorative, safe cataract surgery, the Ebola Virus Persistence in Ocular Tissues and Fluids (EVICT) Study was implemented in Sierra Leone. During implementation of this multi-national study, challenges included regulatory approvals, mobilization, community engagement, infection prevention and control, and collaboration between multiple disciplines. In this report, we address the multifacted approach to address these challenges and the impact of implementation science research to address an urgent clinical subspecialty need in an outbreak setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given the patient care need to develop a protocol to evaluate ocular fluid for Ebola virus RNA persistence prior to cataract surgery, as well as protocols to provide reassurance to ophthalmologists caring for EVD survivors with cataracts, the EVICT study was designed and implemented through the work of the Ministry of Health, Sierra Leone National Eye Programme, and international partnerships. The EVICT study showed that all 50 patients who underwent ocular fluid sampling at 19 and 34 months, respectively, tested negative for Ebola virus RNA. Thirty-four patients underwent successful cataract surgery with visual acuity improvement. Here we describe the methodology for study implementation, challenges encountered, and key issues that impacted EVD vision care in the immediate aftermath of the EVD outbreak. Key aspects of the EVICT study included defining the pertinent questions and clinical need, partnership alignment with key stakeholders, community engagement with EVD survivor associations, in-country and international regulatory approvals, study site design for infection prevention and control, and thorough plans for EVD survivor follow-up care and monitoring. Challenges encountered included patient mobilization owing to transportation routes and distance of patients in rural districts. Strong in-country partnerships and multiple international organizations overcame these challenges so that lessons learned could be applied for future EVD outbreaks in West and Central Africa including EVD outbreaks that are ongoing in Guinea and Democratic Republic of Congo. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The EVICT Study showed that cataract surgery with a protocol-driven approach was safe and vision-restorative for EVD survivors, which provided guidance for EVD ophthalmic surgical care. Ophthalmologic care remains a key aspect of the public health response for EVD outbreaks but requires a meticulous, yet partnered approach with international and local in-country partners. Future efforts may build on this framework for clinical care and to improve our understanding of ophthalmic sequelae, develop treatment paradigms for EVD survivors, and strengthen vision health systems in resource-limited settings.

Factors associated with delayed presentation to healthcare facilities for Lassa fever cases, Nigeria 2019: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Large outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF) occur annually in Nigeria. The case fatality rate among hospitalised cases is ~ 20%. The antiviral drug ribavirin along with supportive care and rehydration are the recommended treatments but must be administered early (within 6 days of symptom onset) for optimal results. We aimed to identify factors associated with late presentation of LF cases to a healthcare facility to inform interventions. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of all laboratory confirmed LF cases reported in Nigeria from December 2018 to April 2019. We performed descriptive epidemiology and a univariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis to investigate the effect of clinical (symptom severity), epidemiological (age, sex, education, occupation, residential State) and exposure (travel, attendance at funeral, exposure to rodents or confirmed case) factors on time to presentation. RESULTS: Of 389 cases, median presentation time was 6 days (IQR 4-10 days), with 53% attending within 6 days. There were no differences in presentation times by sex but differences were noted by age-group; 60+ year-olds had the longest delays while 13-17 year-olds had the shortest. By sex and age, there were differences seen among the younger ages, with 0-4-year-old females presenting earlier than males (4 days and 73% vs. 10 days and 30%). For 5-12 and 13-17 year-olds, males presented sooner than females (males: 5 days, 65% and 3 days, 85% vs. females: 6 days, 50% and 5 days, 61%, respectively). Presentation times differed across occupations 4.5-9 days and 20-60%, transporters (people who drive informal public transport vehicles) had the longest delays. Other data were limited (41-95% missing). However, the Cox regression showed no factors were statistically associated with longer presentation time. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst we observed important differences in presentation delays across factors, our sample size was insufficient to show any statistically significant differences that might exist. However, almost half of cases presented after 6 days of onset, highlighting the need for more accurate and complete surveillance data to determine if there is a systemic or specific cause for delays, so to inform, monitor and evaluate public health strategies and improve outcomes.