Population data evidence of interdependence of the limbs of hormonal feedback loops.

The fundamental models underlying hormonal physiological regulation and homeostasis remain poorly understood. We aimed to derive quantitative evidence regarding these models from the study of population data of balance points of different parameters and their respective controlling hormones. We studied the slopes of correlations between concentrations of circulating free thyroxine and thyrotropin, calcium and parathyroid hormone, hemoglobin and erythropoietin, and glucose and insulin in such population data, as well as the slopes of the limbs of various feedback loops estimated empirically and by reverse engineering of the population data. We used computer simulations to model the factors that influence the slopes derived from the population data, and then matched these simulations with the empirically derived slopes. Our simulations showed that changes to the population distribution of feedback loop limbs may alter the slopes of correlations within population data in specific ways. Non-random (interdependent) associations of the limbs of feedback loops may also have this effect, as well as producing discrepancies between the slopes of feedback limb loops determined experimentally and the same slopes determined by derivation from population data. Our corresponding empirical findings were consistent with the presence of such interdependence in the free thyroxine/thyrotropin, hemoglobin/erythropoietin, and glucose/insulin systems. The glucose/insulin data provided evidence consistent with increasing interdependence with age in childhood. Our findings therefore provide strong evidence that the interdependence of the limbs of feedback loops is a general feature of endocrine homeostatic regulation. This interdependence potentially bestows evolutionary homeostatic and regulatory advantages.

The role of genetic selection and climatic factors in the dispersal of anatomically modern humans out of Africa.

The evolutionarily recent dispersal of anatomically modern humans (AMH) out of Africa (OoA) and across Eurasia provides a unique opportunity to examine the impacts of genetic selection as humans adapted to multiple new environments. Analysis of ancient Eurasian genomic datasets (~1,000 to 45,000 y old) reveals signatures of strong selection, including at least 57 hard sweeps after the initial AMH movement OoA, which have been obscured in modern populations by extensive admixture during the Holocene. The spatiotemporal patterns of these hard sweeps provide a means to reconstruct early AMH population dispersals OoA. We identify a previously unsuspected extended period of genetic adaptation lasting ~30,000 y, potentially in the Arabian Peninsula area, prior to a major Neandertal genetic introgression and subsequent rapid dispersal across Eurasia as far as Australia. Consistent functional targets of selection initiated during this period, which we term the Arabian Standstill, include loci involved in the regulation of fat storage, neural development, skin physiology, and cilia function. Similar adaptive signatures are also evident in introgressed archaic hominin loci and modern Arctic human groups, and we suggest that this signal represents selection for cold adaptation. Surprisingly, many of the candidate selected loci across these groups appear to directly interact and coordinately regulate biological processes, with a number associated with major modern diseases including the ciliopathies, metabolic syndrome, and neurodegenerative disorders. This expands the potential for ancestral human adaptation to directly impact modern diseases, providing a platform for evolutionary medicine.

Physiological linkage of thyroid and pituitary sensitivities.

OBJECTIVES: The sensitivities of the pituitary to thyroxine feedback, and the thyroid to thyrotropin stimulation determine the free thyroxine /thyrotropin feedback loop and can be described mathematically by two curves. It is not well understood how the two curves combine in a healthy population with normal thyroid function to express the individual balance points that are observed. This study was directed at this issue testing the possibilities of random combination and directed linkage between the two curves. METHODS: We reverse-engineered two sets of population data, on the assumption of independent combinations of thyroid and pituitary sensitivities, to obtain estimates of the curve describing thyroid sensitivity. Sensitivity studies were performed. RESULTS: No analysis resulted in a physiologically feasible estimate of the curve describing thyroid sensitivity. There was evidence of linkage of the two curves in terms of their combination throughout the normal range. Thyroid response curves reflecting a low free thyroxine response to thyrotropin tended to be combined in individuals with thyrotropin curves reflecting a high thyrotropin response to free thyroxine, and vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Thyroid and pituitary sensitivities are linked, being combined in individuals in a non-random directed pattern. Direct mutual interaction may contribute to this linkage. This linkage precludes the derivation of the curves describing these sensitivities from population data of the free thyroxine and thyrotropin relationship and complicates their derivation by physiological experimentation. This linkage and probable interaction may also bestow evolutionary advantage by minimising inter-individual variation in free thyroxine levels and by augmenting homeostasis.

The application of new concepts of the assessment of the thyroid state to pregnant women.

Recently proposed concepts regarding the nature and assessment of the thyroid state have provided a model more consistent with empiric evidence. It now appears likely that there are no such entities as thyroid set points and individual euthyroidism. Rather than there being discrete thyroid states, peripheral organ parameters are associated with thyroid function in a continuous manner. Thyroid hormone levels and, in particular, levels of free thyroxine now appear to be superior to thyrotropin levels as indicators of the thyroid state. Complicating the assessment of the correlations of the thyroid state with pregnancy outcomes are the contribution of the placenta to maternal thyroid function, fetal thyroid development, the multiple potential pathways to any particular outcome, the likely presence of small critical periods of time, the differing genetics of fetal and maternal tissues, and the unreliability of thyroid hormone assays. Nevertheless, there is no apparent reason for there to be a change in pregnancy to the basic principles of thyroid hormone action. The relationships between mild abnormalities of the thyroid state and pregnancy outcomes and the value of treating such mild abnormalities remain uncertain and controversial. The evidence suggests that further investigation of these clinical questions might better be based on thyroid hormone, particularly free thyroxine, levels. In the investigation of borderline low thyroid states, the categories of subclinical hypothyroidism and isolated hypothyroxinemia might both be abandoned with attention being directed to low free thyroxine levels regardless of the thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels. For these changes to occur, there would ideally be improvements in the assays for free thyroxine in pregnancy. The evidence suggests that, just as in the non-pregnant situation, pregnancy guidelines based on thyrotropin levels may need revision.

Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data-poor island ecosystem.

Data hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in many systems, which have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. Here we demonstrate a different approach, using a minimum realistic model to guide decisions in data- and resource-scarce systems. We illustrate our approach with a case-study in an invaded ecosystem from Christmas Island, Australia, where there are concerns that cat eradication to protect native species, including the red-tailed tropicbird, could release meso-predation by invasive rats. We use biophysical constraints (metabolic demand) and observable parameters (e.g. prey preferences) to assess the combined cat and rat abundances which would threaten the tropicbird population. We find that the population of tropicbirds cannot be sustained if predated by 1607 rats (95% credible interval (CI) [103, 5910]) in the absence of cats, or 21 cats (95% CI [2, 82]) in the absence of rats. For every cat removed from the island, the bird's net population growth rate improves, provided that the rats do not increase by more than 77 individuals (95% CI [30, 174]). Thus, in this context, one cat is equivalent to 30-174 rats. Our methods are especially useful for on-the-ground predator control in the absence of knowledge of predator-predator interactions, to assess whether 1) the current abundance of predators threatens the prey population of interest, 2) managing one predator species alone is sufficient to protect the prey species given potential release of another predator, and 3) control of multiple predator species is needed to meet the conservation goal. Our approach demonstrates how to use limited information for maximum value in data-poor systems, by shifting the focus from predicting future trajectories, to identifying conditions which threaten the conservation goal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Thyroid testing paradigm switch from thyrotropin to thyroid hormones-Future directions and opportunities in clinical medicine and research.

PURPOSE: Recently published papers have demonstrated that particularly in untreated individuals, clinical parameters more often associate with thyroid hormone, particularly free thyroxine (FT4), levels than with thyrotropin (TSH) levels. Clinical and research assessments of the thyroid state of peripheral tissues would therefore be more precise if they were based on FT4 levels rather than on TSH levels. In this paper we describe implications of, and opportunities provided by, this discovery. CONCLUSIONS: The FT4 level may be the best single test of thyroid function. The addition of free triiodothyronine (FT3) and TSH levels would further enhance test sensitivity and distinguish primary from secondary thyroid dysfunction respectively. There are opportunities to reconsider testing algorithms. Additional potential thyroidology research subjects include the peripheral differences between circulating FT4 and FT3 action, and outcomes in patients on thyroid replacement therapy in terms of thyroid hormone levels. Previously performed negative studies of therapy for subclinical thyroid dysfunction could be repeated using thyroid hormone levels rather than TSH levels for subject selection and the monitoring of treatment. Studies of outcomes in older individuals with treatment of high normal FT4 levels, and pregnant women with borderline high or low FT4 levels would appear to be the most likely to show positive results. There are fresh indications to critically re-analyse the physiological rationale for the current preference for TSH levels in the assessment of the thyroid state of the peripheral tissues. There may be opportunities to apply these research principles to analogous parameters in other endocrine systems.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on South Australia.

ObjectiveThis study assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency departments (EDs) in South Australia, measured by changes in the number and casemix of patients in the system over time.MethodsData from the South Australia Emergency Department Dashboard, updated every 30min, were analysed for the period 4 October-21 December 2020. The Dashboard reports live counts of the number and type of patients in each of the six adult metropolitan public EDs in Adelaide, South Australia.ResultsThere was a significant difference in the mean daily average occupied ED capacity before and during two distinct increases in COVID-19 cases in South Australia. An increase in COVID-19 cases coincided with a decrease in patients in EDs (Pearson's r=-0.93 and -0.67; P<0.001 for both). Presentations in Australasian Triage Scale (ATS) Categories 2-5 decreased during these periods, whereas ATS Category 1 stayed constant. Mental health patients continued to present to the ED, despite the overall drop in ED presentations.ConclusionsDuring the two periods of COVID-19 case growth in South Australia, there was a significant drop in the number of patients presenting to the major public EDs and a change in the casemix of patients over time.What is known about the topic?EDs in Australia often operate at or over capacity, with frequent reports of ambulance ramping, access block and long waiting times. There have been reports internationally of significant declines in ED presentations throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.What does this paper add?This paper uses a novel publicly available data source that is available in real time to contribute a new perspective from South Australia, which has experienced two distinct periods of strict restrictions and lockdown. The research showed that the number of mental health presentations remained consistently high, despite a significant overall decline in ED occupancy.What are the implications for practitioners?This study demonstrates that South Australians are accessing emergency medical treatment differently in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the context of an overall decline in presentation numbers, the number of mental health-related presentations has not changed significantly, suggesting that this trend should be closely monitored. The findings corroborate the national concern that unwell people have avoided accessing emergency medical care during the pandemic, leading to worse outcomes and increased need for healthcare resources at a later date. It will be important to monitor and quickly detect further changes in ED usage using real-time data as the pandemic evolves, as well as in any future significant health crises.

Optimised prophylactic vaccination in metapopulations.

A highly effective method for controlling the spread of an infectious disease is vaccination. However, there are many situations where vaccines are in limited supply. The ability to determine, under this constraint, a vaccination strategy which minimises the number of people that become infected over the course of a potential epidemic is essential. Two questions naturally arise: when is it best to allocate vaccines, and to whom should they be allocated? We address these questions in the context of metapopulation models of disease spread. We discover that in practice it is generally optimal to distribute all vaccines prophylactically, rather than withholding until infection is introduced. For small metapopulations, we provide a method for determining the optimal prophylactic allocation. As the optimal strategy becomes computationally intensive to obtain when the population size increases, we detail an approximation method to determine an approximately optimal vaccination scheme. We find that our approximate strategy is consistently at least as good as three strategies reported in the literature across a wide range of parameter values.

Clinical Parameters Are More Likely to Be Associated with Thyroid Hormone Levels than with Thyrotropin Levels: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Though the functional states of other endocrine systems are not defined on the basis of levels of controlling hormones, the assessment of thyroid function is based on levels of the controlling hormone thyrotropin (TSH). We, therefore, addressed the question as to whether levels of thyroid hormones [free thyroxine (fT4), total triiodothyronine (TT3)/free triiodothyronine (fT3)], or TSH levels, within and beyond the reference ranges, provide the better guide to the range of clinical parameters associated with thyroid status. Methods: A PubMed/MEDLINE search of studies up to October 2019, examining associations of levels of thyroid hormones and TSH, taken simultaneously in the same individuals, with clinical parameters was performed. We analyzed atrial fibrillation, other cardiac parameters, osteoporosis and fracture, cancer, dementia, frailty, mortality, features of the metabolic syndrome, and pregnancy outcomes. Studies were assessed for quality by using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa score. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines were followed. A meta-analysis of the associations was performed to determine the relative likelihood of fT4, TT3/fT3, and TSH levels that are associated with the clinical parameters. Results: We identified 58 suitable articles and a total of 1880 associations. In general, clinical parameters were associated with thyroid hormone levels significantly more often than with TSH levels-the converse was not true for any of the clinical parameters. In the 1880 considered associations, fT4 levels were significantly associated with clinical parameters in 50% of analyses. The respective frequencies for TT3/fT3 and TSH levels were 53% and 23% (p < 0.0001 for both fT4 and TT3/fT3 vs. TSH). The fT4 and TT3/fT3 levels were comparably associated with clinical parameters (p = 0.71). More sophisticated statistical analyses, however, indicated that the associations with TT3/fT3 were not as robust as the associations with fT4. Conclusions: Thyroid hormones levels, and in particular fT4 levels, seem to have stronger associations with clinical parameters than do TSH levels. Associations of clinical parameters with TSH levels can be explained by the strong negative population correlation between thyroid hormones and TSH. Clinical and research components of thyroidology currently based on the measurement of the thyroid state by reference to TSH levels warrant reconsideration.

GHOST: Recovering Historical Signal from Heterotachously Evolved Sequence Alignments.

Molecular sequence data that have evolved under the influence of heterotachous evolutionary processes are known to mislead phylogenetic inference. We introduce the General Heterogeneous evolution On a Single Topology (GHOST) model of sequence evolution, implemented under a maximum-likelihood framework in the phylogenetic program IQ-TREE (http://www.iqtree.org). Simulations show that using the GHOST model, IQ-TREE can accurately recover the tree topology, branch lengths, and substitution model parameters from heterotachously evolved sequences. We investigate the performance of the GHOST model on empirical data by sampling phylogenomic alignments of varying lengths from a plastome alignment. We then carry out inference under the GHOST model on a phylogenomic data set composed of 248 genes from 16 taxa, where we find the GHOST model concurs with the currently accepted view, placing turtles as a sister lineage of archosaurs, in contrast to results obtained using traditional variable rates-across-sites models. Finally, we apply the model to a data set composed of a sodium channel gene of 11 fish taxa, finding that the GHOST model is able to elucidate a subtle component of the historical signal, linked to the previously established convergent evolution of the electric organ in two geographically distinct lineages of electric fish. We compare inference under the GHOST model to partitioning by codon position and show that, owing to the minimization of model constraints, the GHOST model offers unique biological insights when applied to empirical data.

Population data provide evidence against the presence of a set point for hemoglobin levels or tissue oxygen delivery.

Hemoglobin levels are believed to be regulated as per a set point model of regulation. This model of regulation, by which specific levels of a parameter are targeted and defended by physiological systems, implies a particular population correlation between the parameter and its controlling hormone. Empirical population correlations of other parameters and their controlling hormones, have denied the presence of such set point-based regulation. To assess if hemoglobin is regulated according to a set point model we performed a systematic search of PubMed/MEDLINE and Web of Science identifying relevant reports published up to November 2018. Population hemoglobin/erythropoietin level correlations were retrieved, and these empirically derived correlations were compared with the positive correlation implied by a set point model of regulation. Authors of papers containing potentially suitable data were contacted with requests for further analyses, and a meta-analysis was performed. Twelve correlations between hemoglobin and erythropoietin levels from eleven papers were analyzed. None of these correlations were significantly positive, three, restricted to the normal range of hemoglobin, were significantly negative. All but one of the other correlations showed a negative trend. New analyses of previously published data sets resulted in similar findings. In particular a new analysis of large data sets of males (n = 2417) and females (n = 2592) with normal range hemoglobin levels, revealed significantly negative correlations. A meta-analysis of our results indicated that the data overall are not consistent with a positive relationship between hemoglobin and erythropoietin (P < 0.0001). Population data indicate that individuals do not have set point levels of hemoglobin.

The self-regulating nature of occupancy in ICUs: stochastic homoeostasis.

As pressure on the health system grows, intensive care units (ICUs) are increasingly operating close to their capacity. This has led a number of authors to describe a link between admission and discharge behaviours, labelled variously as: 'bumping', 'demand-driven discharge', 'premature discharge' etc. These labels all describe the situation that arises when a patient is discharged to make room for the more acute arriving patient. This link between the admission and discharge behaviours, and other potential occupancy-management behaviours, can create a correlation between the arrival process and LOS distribution. In this paper, we demonstrate the considerable problems that this correlation structure can cause capacity models built on queueing theory, including discrete event simulation (DES) models; and provide a simple and robust solution to this modelling problem. This paper provides an indication of the scope of this problem, by showing that this correlation structure is present in most of the 37 ICUs in Australia. An indication of the size of the problem is provided using one ICU in Australia. By incorrectly assuming that the arrival process and LOS distribution are independent (i.e. that the correlation structure does not exist) for an occupancy DES model, we show that the crucial turn-away rates are markedly inaccurate, whilst the mean occupancy remains unaffected. For the scenarios tested, the turn-away rates were over-estimated by up to 46 days per year. Finally, we present simple and robust methods to: test for this correlation, and account for this correlation structure when simulating the occupancy of an ICU.

Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) autoregulation reduces variation in the TSH response to thyroid hormones.

The physiological functions of Thyroid Stimulating Hormone (TSH) autoregulation, the ultra-short feedback loop inhibition of TSH by TSH itself, have not been determined. In this work we explored the role of TSH autoregulation in thyroid homeostasis. We synthesized the known physiology of autoregulation with theknown physiological relationships between thyroid hormones; in particular between free thyroxine and TSH. We analysed the implications of TSH autoregulation, on the generation of the TSH response to free thyroxine (the 'TSH curve'), and on the variation inthis response, which might result from variations in hypothalamopituitary or thyroid gland function. Our analysis demonstrated that, in the circumstances of inter-individual and intra-individual variations to hypothalamo-pituitary function TSH autoregulation lessens variation in the TSH curve. This in turn enhances the probability of generating and maintaining a euthyroid free thyroxine value. This contribution of TSH autoregulation to the stabilisation of thyroid physiology offers a logical explanation for the evolutionary selection of this physiological process.

Designing group dose-response studies in the presence of transmission.

Dose-response studies are used throughout pharmacology, toxicology and in clinical research to determine safe, effective, or hazardous doses of a substance. When involving animals, the subjects are often housed in groups; this is in fact mandatory in many countries for social animals, on ethical grounds. An issue that may consequently arise is that of unregulated between-subject dosing (transmission), where a subject may transmit the substance to another subject. Transmission will obviously impact the assessment of the dose-response relationship, and will lead to biases if not properly modelled. Here we present a method for determining the optimal design - pertaining to the size of groups, the doses, and the killing times - for such group dose-response experiments, in a Bayesian framework. Our results are of importance to minimising the number of animals required in order to accurately determine dose-response relationships. Furthermore, we additionally consider scenarios in which the estimation of the amount of transmission is also of interest. A particular motivating example is that of Campylobacter jejuni in chickens. Code is provided so that practitioners may determine the optimal design for their own studies.

Population correlations do not support the existence of set points for blood levels of calcium or glucose - a new model for homeostasis.

The prevailing teaching regarding homeostasis, and in particular endocrine homeostasis, includes the fundamental concept of a "set point," which represents a target or optimum level defended by physiological control mechanisms. Analogies for the description and teaching of this concept have included thermostats and cruise controls. We previously demonstrated that such a set-point model of regulation implies that in population data of parameter set point/controlling hormone levels, correlations between the parameter and its controlling hormone must be in the direction of the response of the parameter to its controlling hormone, and that in thyroid homeostasis this relationship is not observed. In this work we similarly examined population correlations, extracted from the literature, for the parameters glucose and calcium, and their controlling hormones. We found 10 correlations. Most were highly significant (P < 0.01). All were in the direction of the response of the controlling hormone to the parameter. Therefore, none were consistent with the pattern implied by a set-point model of regulation. Instead all were consistent with an "equilibrium point" model of regulation, whereby ambient levels have no particular connotation to the individual, and result passively from the interplay of physiological processes. We conclude that glucose and calcium regulation, like thyroid regulation, are not centered on set points. This may reflect a general property of homeostasis. We provide an alternative mechanistic analogy, without a set point, for the heuristic description and teaching, of homeostasis.

A method of decision analysis quantifying the effects of age and comorbidities on the probability of deriving significant benefit from medical treatments.

BACKGROUND: The external validity, or generalizability, of trials and guidelines has been considered poor in the context of multiple morbidity. How multiple morbidity might affect the magnitude of benefit of a given treatment, and thereby external validity, has had little study. OBJECTIVE: To provide a method of decision analysis to quantify the effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving a given magnitude of treatment benefit. DESIGN: We developed a method to calculate probabilistically the effect of all of a patient's comorbidities on their underlying utility, or well-being, at a future time point. From this, we derived a distribution of possible magnitudes of treatment benefit at that future time point. We then expressed this distribution as the probability of deriving at least a given magnitude of treatment benefit. To demonstrate the applicability of this method of decision analysis, we applied it to the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia in a geriatric population of 50 individuals. We highlighted the results of four of these individuals. RESULTS: This method of analysis provided individualized quantifications of the effect of age and comorbidity on the probability of treatment benefit. The average probability of deriving a benefit, of at least 50% of the magnitude of benefit available to an individual without comorbidity, was only 0.8%. CONCLUSION: The effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving significant treatment benefits can be quantified for any individual. Even without consideration of other factors affecting external validity, these effects may be sufficient to guide decision-making.

Corrigendum to "The Relationship between Population T4/TSH Set Point Data and T4/TSH Physiology".

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1155/2016/6351473.].

Aboriginal mitogenomes reveal 50,000 years of regionalism in Australia.

Aboriginal Australians represent one of the longest continuous cultural complexes known. Archaeological evidence indicates that Australia and New Guinea were initially settled approximately 50 thousand years ago (ka); however, little is known about the processes underlying the enormous linguistic and phenotypic diversity within Australia. Here we report 111 mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) from historical Aboriginal Australian hair samples, whose origins enable us to reconstruct Australian phylogeographic history before European settlement. Marked geographic patterns and deep splits across the major mitochondrial haplogroups imply that the settlement of Australia comprised a single, rapid migration along the east and west coasts that reached southern Australia by 49-45 ka. After continent-wide colonization, strong regional patterns developed and these have survived despite substantial climatic and cultural change during the late Pleistocene and Holocene epochs. Remarkably, we find evidence for the continuous presence of populations in discrete geographic areas dating back to around 50 ka, in agreement with the notable Aboriginal Australian cultural attachment to their country.