Investigating historical drivers of latitudinal gradients in polyploid plant biogeography: A multiclade perspective.

PREMISE: The proportion of polyploid plants in a community increases with latitude, and different hypotheses have been proposed about which factors drive this pattern. Here, we aimed to understand the historical causes of the latitudinal polyploidy gradient using a combination of ancestral state reconstruction methods. Specifically, we assessed whether (1) polyploidization enables movement to higher latitudes (i.e., polyploidization precedes occurrences in higher latitudes) or (2) higher latitudes facilitate polyploidization (i.e., occurrence in higher latitudes precedes polyploidization). METHODS: We reconstructed the ploidy states and ancestral niches of 1032 angiosperm species at four paleoclimatic time slices ranging from 3.3 million years ago to the present, comprising taxa from four well-represented clades: Onagraceae, Primulaceae, Solanum (Solanaceae), and Pooideae (Poaceae). We used ancestral niche reconstruction models alongside a customized discrete character evolution model to allow reconstruction of states at specific time slices. Patterns of latitudinal movement were reconstructed and compared in relation to inferred ploidy shifts. RESULTS: No single hypothesis applied equally well across all analyzed clades. While significant differences in median latitudinal occurrence were detected in the largest clade, Poaceae, no significant differences were detected in latitudinal movement in any clade. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary study is the first to attempt to connect ploidy changes to continuous latitudinal movement, but we cannot favor one hypothesis over another. Given that patterns seem to be clade-specific, more clades must be analyzed in future studies for generalities to be drawn.

The evolutionary responses of life-history strategies to climatic variability in flowering plants.

The evolution of annual or perennial strategies in flowering plants likely depends on a broad array of temperature and precipitation variables. Previous documented climate life-history correlations in explicit phylogenetic frameworks have been limited to certain clades and geographic regions. To gain insights which generalize to multiple lineages we employ a multi-clade approach analyzing 32 groups of angiosperms across eight climatic variables. We utilize a recently developed method that accounts for the joint evolution of continuous and discrete traits to evaluate two hypotheses: annuals tend to evolve in highly seasonal regions prone to extreme heat and drought; and annuals tend to have faster rates of climatic niche evolution than perennials. We find that temperature, particularly highest temperature of the warmest month, is the most consistent climatic factor influencing the evolution of annual strategy in flowering plants. Unexpectedly, we do not find significant differences in rates of climatic niche evolution between perennial and annual lineages. We propose that annuals are consistently favored in areas prone to extreme heat due to their ability to escape heat stress as seeds, but they tend to be outcompeted by perennials in regions where extreme heat is uncommon or nonexistent.

A novel method for jointly modeling the evolution of discrete and continuous traits.

The correlated evolution of multiple characters is a crucial aspect of evolutionary change. If change in a particular character influences the evolution of a separate trait, then modeling these features independently can mislead our understanding of the evolutionary process. Progress toward jointly modeling several characters has involved modeling multivariate evolution of the same class of character, but there are far fewer options when jointly modeling traits when one character is discrete and the other is continuous. Here, we develop such a framework to explicitly estimate the joint likelihood for discrete and continuous characters. Specifically, our model combines the probability of observing the continuous character under a generalized OU process with the probability of the discrete character under a hidden Markov model, linked by a shared underlying regime. We use simulation studies to demonstrate that this approach, hOUwie, can accurately evaluate parameter values across a broad set of models. We then apply our model to test whether fleshy and dry fruits of Ericaceae lineages are correlated with their climatic niche evolution as represented by the aridity index. Consistent with expectations, we find that the climatic niche of lineages with fleshy fruits is more conserved while lineages with dry fruits have higher rates of climatic niche evolution and a more humid climatic optimum.

Reducing the Biases in False Correlations Between Discrete Characters.

The correlation between two characters is often interpreted as evidence that there exists a significant and biologically important relationship between them. However, Maddison and FitzJohn (in The unsolved challenge to phylogenetic correlation tests for categorical characters. Syst. Biol. 2015;64:127-136) recently pointed out that evidence of correlated evolution between two categorical characters is often spurious, particularly, when the dependent relationship stems from a single replicate deep in time. Here we will show that there may, in fact, be a statistical solution to the problem posed by Maddison and FitzJohn naturally embedded within the expanded model space afforded by the hidden Markov model (HMM) framework. We demonstrate that the problem of single unreplicated evolutionary events manifests itself as rate heterogeneity within our models and that this is the source of the false correlation. Therefore, we argue that this problem is better understood as model misspecification rather than a failure of comparative methods to account for phylogenetic pseudoreplication. We utilize HMMs to develop a multirate independent model which, when implemented, drastically reduces support for correlation. The problem itself extends beyond categorical character evolution, but we believe that the practical solution presented here may lend itself to future extensions in other areas of comparative biology. [Macroevolution; model adequacy; phylogenetic comparative methods; rate heterogeneity].

Fossils Do Not Substantially Improve, and May Even Harm, Estimates of Diversification Rate Heterogeneity.

The fossilized birth-death (FBD) model is a naturally appealing way of directly incorporating fossil information when estimating diversification rates. However, an important yet often overlooked property of the original FBD derivation is that it distinguishes between two types of sampled lineages. Here, we first discuss and demonstrate the impact of severely undersampling, and even not including fossils that represent samples of lineages that also had sampled descendants. We then explore the benefits of including fossils, generally, by implementing and then testing two types of FBD models, including one that converts a fossil set into stratigraphic ranges, in more complex likelihood-based models that assume multiple rate classes across the tree. Under various simulation scenarios, including a scenario that exists far outside the set of models we evaluated, including fossils rarely outperform analyses that exclude them altogether. At best, the inclusion of fossils improves precision but does not influence bias. Similarly, we found that converting the fossil set to stratigraphic ranges, which is one way to remedy the effects of undercounting the number of k-type fossils, results in turnover rates and extinction fraction estimates that are generally underestimated. Although fossils remain essential for understanding diversification through time, in the specific case of understanding diversification given an existing, largely modern tree, they are not especially beneficial. [Fossilized birth-death; fossils; MiSSE; state speciation extinction; stratigraphic ranges; turnover rate.].

A flexible method for estimating tip diversification rates across a range of speciation and extinction scenarios.

Estimates of diversification rates at the tips of a phylogeny provide a flexible approach for correlation analyses with multiple traits and to map diversification rates in space while also avoiding the uncertainty of deep time rate reconstructions. Available methods for tip rate estimation make different assumptions, and thus their accuracy usually depends on the characteristics of the underlying model generating the tree. Here, we introduce MiSSE, a trait-free, state-dependent speciation and extinction approach that can be used to estimate varying speciation, extinction, net diversification, turnover, and extinction fractions at the tips of the tree. We compare the accuracy of tip rates inferred by MiSSE against similar methods and demonstrate that, due to certain characteristics of the model, the error is generally low across a broad range of speciation and extinction scenarios. MiSSE can be used alongside regular phylogenetic comparative methods in trait-related diversification hypotheses, and we also describe a simple correction to avoid pseudoreplication from sister tips in analyses of independent contrasts. Finally, we demonstrate the capabilities of MiSSE, with a renewed focus on classic comparative methods, to examine the correlation between plant height and turnover rates in eucalypts, a species-rich lineage of flowering plants.

Retiring "Cradles" and "Museums" of Biodiversity.

In 1974, G. Ledyard Stebbins provided a metaphor illustrating how spatial gradients of biodiversity observed today are by-products of the way environment-population interactions drive species diversification through time. We revisit the narrative behind Stebbins's "cradles" and "museums" of biodiversity to debate two points. First, the usual high-speciation versus low-extinction and tropical versus temperate dichotomies are oversimplifications of the original metaphor and may obscure how gradients of diversity are formed. Second, the way in which we use modern gradients of biodiversity to interpret the potential historical processes that generated them are often still biased by the reasons that motivated Stebbins to propose his original metaphor. Specifically, the field has not yet abandoned the idea that species-rich areas and "basal lineages" indicate centers of origin, nor has it fully appreciated the role of traits as regulators of environment-population dynamics. We acknowledge that the terms "cradles" and "museums" are popular in the literature and that terminologies can evolve with the requirements of the field. However, we also argue that the concepts of cradles and museums have outlived their utility in studies of biogeography and macroevolution and should be replaced by discussions of actual processes at play.

A Spatially Explicit Model of Stabilizing Selection for Improving Phylogenetic Inference.

Ultraconserved elements (UCEs) are stretches of hundreds of nucleotides with highly conserved cores flanked by variable regions. Although the selective forces responsible for the preservation of UCEs are unknown, they are nonetheless believed to contain phylogenetically meaningful information from deep to shallow divergence events. Phylogenetic applications of UCEs assume the same degree of rate heterogeneity applies across the entire locus, including variable flanking regions. We present a Wright-Fisher model of selection on nucleotides (SelON) which includes the effects of mutation, drift, and spatially varying, stabilizing selection for an optimal nucleotide sequence. The SelON model assumes the strength of stabilizing selection follows a position-dependent Gaussian function whose exact shape can vary between UCEs. We evaluate SelON by comparing its performance to a simpler and spatially invariant GTR+Γ model using an empirical data set of 400 vertebrate UCEs used to determine the phylogenetic position of turtles. We observe much improvement in model fit of SelON over the GTR+Γ model, and support for turtles as sister to lepidosaurs. Overall, the UCE-specific parameters SelON estimates provide a compact way of quantifying the strength and variation in selection within and across UCEs. SelON can also be extended to include more realistic mapping functions between sequence and stabilizing selection as well as allow for greater levels of rate heterogeneity. By more explicitly modeling the nature of selection on UCEs, SelON and similar approaches can be used to better understand the biological mechanisms responsible for their preservation across highly divergent taxa and long evolutionary time scales.

Comparative Analyses of Phenotypic Sequences Using Phylogenetic Trees.

Phenotypic sequences are a type of multivariate trait organized structurally, such as teeth distributed along the dental arch, or temporally, such as the stages of an ontogenetic series. Unlike other multivariate traits, the elements of a phenotypic sequence are distributed along an ordered set, which allows for distinct evolutionary patterns between neighboring and distant positions. In fact, sequence traits share many characteristics with molecular sequences, although important distinctions pose challenges to current comparative methods. We implement an approach to estimate rates of trait evolution that explicitly incorporates the sequence organization of traits. We apply models to study the temporal pattern evolution of cricket calling songs. We test whether neighboring positions along a phenotypic sequence have correlated rates of evolution or whether rate variation is independent of sequence position. Our results show that cricket song evolution is strongly autocorrelated and that models perform well when used with sequence phenotypes even under small sample sizes. Our approach is flexible and can be applied to any multivariate trait with discrete units organized in a sequence-like structure.

Geophytism in monocots leads to higher rates of diversification.

Geophytes, plants with buds on underground structures, are found throughout the plant tree of life. These below ground structures allow plants to inhabit highly seasonal and disturbance-prone environments across ecosystems. Past researchers have hypothesised that the bulbous, cormous and tuberous habits promote diversification, but this had yet to be tested. Using a comprehensive monocot data set of almost 13 000 taxa, we investigated the effects of the geophytic habit on diversification using both state-dependent and state-independent models. We found that geophytes exhibit increased rates of diversification relative to nongeophytes. State-dependent analyses recovered higher yet similar rates of diversification for bulbous, cormous and tuberous taxa compared with rhizomatous and nongeophytic taxa. However, the state-independent model returned no difference in rates among the different traits. Geophytism shows higher rates of diversification relative to nongeophytes but we found little support for the hypothesis that the evolution of the bulb, corm or tuber appears to provide a diversification increase relative to rhizomatous and nongeophytic taxa. Our broad-scale analysis highlights the overall evolutionary importance of the geophytic habit (i.e. belowground bud placement). However, our results also suggest that belowground morphological diversity alone cannot explain this rate increase. In order to further test the evolutionary significance of these underground structures, future studies should consider these in combination with other biotic and abiotic factors.

Diatoms diversify and turn over faster in freshwater than marine environments.

Many clades that span the marine-freshwater boundary are disproportionately more diverse in the younger, shorter lived, and scarcer freshwater environments than they are in the marine realm. This disparity is thought to be related to differences in diversification rates between marine and freshwater lineages. However, marine and freshwaters are not ecologically homogeneous, so the study of diversification across the salinity divide should also account for other potentially interacting variables. In diatoms, freshwater and substrate-associated (benthic) lineages are several-fold more diverse than their marine and suspended (planktonic) counterparts. These imbalances provide an excellent system to understand whether these variables interact with diversification. Using multistate hidden-state speciation and extinction models, we found that freshwater lineages diversify faster than marine lineages regardless of whether they inhabit the plankton or the benthos. Freshwater lineages also had higher turnover rates (speciation + extinction), suggesting that habitat transitions impact speciation and extinction rates jointly. The plankton-benthos contrast was also consistent with state-dependent diversification, but with modest differences in diversification and turnover rates. Asymmetric and bidirectional transitions rejected hypotheses about the plankton and freshwaters as absorbing, inescapable habitats. Our results further suggest that the high turnover rate of freshwater diatoms is related to high turnover of freshwater systems themselves.

The monocotyledonous underground: global climatic and phylogenetic patterns of geophyte diversity.

PREMISE: Geophytes-plants that typically possess a bulb, corm, tuber, and/or rhizome-have long captured the attention of hobbyists and researchers. However, despite the economic and evolutionary importance of these traits, the potential drivers of their morphological diversity remain unknown. Using a comprehensive phylogeny of monocots, we test for correlations between climate and geophyte growth form to better understand why we observe such a diversity of underground traits in geophytes. Understanding the evolutionary factors promoting independent origins of these potentially adaptive organs will lend insights into how plants adapt to environmental hardships. METHODS: Using a comprehensive phylogeny incorporated with global occurrence and climate data for the monocots, we investigated whether climatic patterns could explain differences between geophytes and non-geophytes, as well as differences among bulbous, cormous, tuberous, rhizomatous, and non-geophytic taxa. We used phylogenetically-informed ANOVAs, MANOVAs, and PCAs to test differences in climatic variables between the different growth forms. RESULTS: Geophytes inhabit cooler, drier, and more thermally variable climates compared to non-geophytes. Although some underground traits (i.e., bulb, corm, and tuber) appear to inhabit particular niches, a result supported by strong phylogenetic signal, our data has limited evidence for an overall role of climate in the evolution of these traits. However, temperature may be a driving force in rhizome evolution, as well as the evolution of taxa which we considered here as non-geophytic (e.g., trees, epiphytes, etc.). CONCLUSIONS: While precipitation patterns have played a role in the evolution of geophytism, our results suggest that temperature should be more strongly considered as a contributing factor promoting the evolution of belowground bud placement, specifically in rhizomatous and non-geophytic taxa. Bulbous, cormous, and tuberous taxa need closer examination of other mechanisms, such as anatomical constraints or genetic controls, in order to begin to understand the causes behind the evolution of their underground morphology.

Population Genetics Based Phylogenetics Under Stabilizing Selection for an Optimal Amino Acid Sequence: A Nested Modeling Approach.

We present a new phylogenetic approach, selection on amino acids and codons (SelAC), whose substitution rates are based on a nested model linking protein expression to population genetics. Unlike simpler codon models that assume a single substitution matrix for all sites, our model more realistically represents the evolution of protein-coding DNA under the assumption of consistent, stabilizing selection using a cost-benefit approach. This cost-benefit approach allows us to generate a set of 20 optimal amino acid-specific matrix families using just a handful of parameters and naturally links the strength of stabilizing selection to protein synthesis levels, which we can estimate. Using a yeast data set of 100 orthologs for 6 taxa, we find SelAC fits the data much better than popular models by 104-105 Akike information criterion units adjusted for small sample bias. Our results also indicated that nested, mechanistic models better predict observed data patterns highlighting the improvement in biological realism in amino acid sequence evolution that our model provides. Additional parameters estimated by SelAC indicate that a large amount of nonphylogenetic, but biologically meaningful, information can be inferred from existing data. For example, SelAC prediction of gene-specific protein synthesis rates correlates well with both empirical (r=0.33-0.48) and other theoretical predictions (r=0.45-0.64) for multiple yeast species. SelAC also provides estimates of the optimal amino acid at each site. Finally, because SelAC is a nested approach based on clearly stated biological assumptions, future modifications, such as including shifts in the optimal amino acid sequence within or across lineages, are possible.

Hidden state models improve state-dependent diversification approaches, including biogeographical models.

The state-dependent speciation and extinction (SSE) models have recently been criticized due to their high rates of "false positive" results. Many researchers have advocated avoiding SSE models in favor of other "nonparametric" or "semiparametric" approaches. The hidden Markov modeling (HMM) approach provides a partial solution to the issues of model adequacy detected with SSE models. The inclusion of "hidden states" can account for rate heterogeneity observed in empirical phylogenies and allows for reliable detection of state-dependent diversification or diversification shifts independent of the trait of interest. However, the adoption of HMM has been hampered by the interpretational challenges of what exactly a "hidden state" represents, which we clarify herein. We show that HMMs in combination with a model-averaging approach naturally account for hidden traits when examining the meaningful impact of a suspected "driver" of diversification. We also extend the HMM to the geographic state-dependent speciation and extinction (GeoSSE) model. We test the efficacy of our "GeoHiSSE" extension with both simulations and an empirical dataset. On the whole, we show that hidden states are a general framework that can distinguish heterogeneous effects of diversification attributed to a focal character.

Insights into global planktonic diatom diversity: The importance of comparisons between phylogenetically equivalent units that account for time.

Metabarcoding has offered unprecedented insights into microbial diversity. In many studies, short DNA sequences are binned into consecutively lower Linnaean ranks, and ranked groups (e.g., genera) are the units of biodiversity analyses. These analyses assume that Linnaean ranks are biologically meaningful and that identically ranked groups are comparable. We used a metabarcode dataset for marine planktonic diatoms to illustrate the limits of this approach. We found that the 20 most abundant marine planktonic diatom genera ranged in age from 4 to 134 million years, indicating the non-equivalence of genera because some have had more time to diversify than others. However, species richness was largely independent of genus age, suggesting that disparities in species richness among genera were better explained by variation in rates of speciation and extinction. Taxonomic classifications often do not reflect phylogeny, so genus-level analyses can include phylogenetically nested genera, further confounding rank-based analyses. These results underscore the indispensable role of phylogeny in understanding patterns of microbial diversity.

Can we build it? Yes we can, but should we use it? Assessing the quality and value of a very large phylogeny of campanulid angiosperms.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The study of very large and very old clades holds the promise of greater insights into evolution across the tree of life. However, there has been a fair amount of criticism regarding the interpretations and quality of studies to date, with some suggesting that detailed studies carried out on smaller, tractable scales should be preferred over the increasingly grand syntheses of these data. METHODS: We provided in detail our trials and tribulations of compiling a large, sparsely sampled matrix from GenBank data and inferring a well-supported, time-calibrated phylogeny of Campanulidae. We also used a simulation approach to assess tree quality and to study the value of using very large, comprehensive phylogenies in a comparative context. KEY RESULTS: A robust and well-supported phylogeny can be produced as long as automated procedures are supplemented with some human intervention. In the case of campanulids, the overall topology may be driven not only by particular genes, but also particular sequences for a gene. We also determined that estimates of divergence times should be fairly robust to issues related to clade-specific heterogeneity. Finally, we demonstrated how relying on results from smaller, younger clades are prone to produce biased interpretations of tropical to temperate evolution across campanulids as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: While we were both surprised and encouraged by the robust and fairly well-resolved, comprehensive phylogeny of campanulids, challenges still remain. Nevertheless, large phylogenies are inherently valuable in a comparative context if only to attenuate the issue of ascertainment bias.

Accelerated diversification is related to life history and locomotion in a hyperdiverse lineage of microbial eukaryotes (Diatoms, Bacillariophyta).

Patterns of species richness are commonly linked to life history strategies. In diatoms, an exceptionally diverse lineage of photosynthetic heterokonts important for global photosynthesis and burial of atmospheric carbon, lineages with different locomotory and reproductive traits differ dramatically in species richness, but any potential association between life history strategy and diversification has not been tested in a phylogenetic framework. We constructed a time-calibrated, 11-gene, 1151-taxon phylogeny of diatoms - the most inclusive diatom species tree to date. We used this phylogeny, together with a comprehensive inventory of first-last occurrences of Cenozoic fossil diatoms, to estimate ranges of expected species richness, diversification and its variation through time and across lineages. Diversification rates varied with life history traits. Although anisogamous lineages diversified faster than oogamous ones, this increase was restricted to a nested clade with active motility in the vegetative cells. We propose that the evolution of motility in vegetative cells, following an earlier transition from oogamy to anisogamy, facilitated outcrossing and improved utilization of habitat complexity, ultimately leading to enhanced opportunity for adaptive divergence across a variety of novel habitats. Together, these contributed to a species radiation that gave rise to the majority of present-day diatom diversity.

Variation in seed size is structured by dispersal syndrome and cone morphology in conifers and other nonflowering seed plants.

Seed size varies tremendously in plants and its evolution is influenced by multiple ecological and biological factors that are difficult to disentangle. In this study, we focus on understanding the role of seed dispersal by animals in the evolution of seed size in conifers, the most diverse extant nonflowering seed plant group. Relationships among seed size, dispersal syndrome, climate and cone morphology were analyzed across conifers using quantitative models of character evolution and phylogenetic regression techniques. Dispersal syndrome is a more consistent predictor of seed size within major extant conifer clades than climate. Seeds are generally larger in animal-dispersed than wind-dispersed species, and particular cone morphologies are consistently associated with specific ranges in seed size. Seed size and cone morphology evolve in a correlated manner in many animal-dispersed conifers, following a trade-off that minimizes the total size of the dispersal unit. These relationships are also present in other nonflowering seed plant groups, and have been important in the evolution of seeds and cones at least over the Cenozoic and perhaps over much of the later Mesozoic.