Behaviour changes following HIV diagnosis among men who have sex with men in the era of treatment as prevention: data from a prospective study.

We described the longitudinal changes in sexual behaviour and associated factors among newly diagnosed with HIV men who have sex with men participating in a prospective observational study from a London HIV clinic (2015-2018). Participants self-completed questionnaires at baseline, months 3 and 12. Information collected included socio-demographic, sexual behaviour, health, lifestyle and social support. Trends in sexual behaviours over one year following diagnosis and associated factors were assessed using generalized estimating equations with logit link. Condomless sex (CLS) dropped from 62.2% at baseline to 47.6% at month-three but increased again to 61.8% at month-12 (p-trend = 0.790). Serodiscordant-CLS increased between month-three and month-12 (from 13.1% to 35.6%, p-trend < 0.001). The prevalence of serodiscordant-CLS with high risk of transmitting to their partners at month-three was 10.7%. CLS was higher among men who reported recreational drug use (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 3.03, 95%CI 1.47-6.24, p = 0.003), those with undetectable viral load (aOR 2.17, 95%CI 1.22-3.84, p = 0.008) and those who agreed with a statement "condoms are not necessary when HIV viral load is undetectable" (aOR 3.41, 95%CI 1.58-7.38, p = 0.002). MSM continued to engage in CLS after HIV diagnosis, which coincided with U = U publications and increased throughout the study.

Efficiency of the EmERGE Pathway of Care in Five European HIV Centres.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to calculate the efficiency of the EmERGE Pathway of Care in five European HIV clinics, developed and implemented for medically stable people living with HIV. METHODS: Participants were followed up for 1 year before and after implementation of EmERGE, between April 2016 and October 2019. Micro-costing studies were performed in the outpatient services of the clinics. Unit costs for outpatient services were calculated in national currencies and converted to US$ 2018 OECD purchasing parity prices to enable between clinic comparisons in terms of outcomes and costs. Unit costs were linked to the mean use of services for medically stable people living with HIV,  before and after implementation of EmERGE. Primary outcome measures were CD4 count and viral load; secondary outcomes were patient activation (PAM13) and quality of life (PROQOL-HIV). Out-of-pocket expenditure data were collected. RESULTS: There were 2251 participants: 87-93% were male, mean age at entry was 41-47 years. Medically stable people living with HIV had outpatient visits in four sites which decreased by 9-31% and costs by 5-33%; visits and costs increased by 8% in one site, which had to revert back to face-to-face visits. Antiretroviral drugs comprised 83-91% of annual costs: the Portuguese site had the highest antiretroviral drug costs in US$ purchasing parity prices. Primary and secondary outcome measures of participants did not change during the study. CONCLUSIONS: EmERGE is acceptable and provided cost savings in different socio-economic settings. Antiretroviral drug costs remain the main cost drivers in medically stable people living with HIV. While antiretroviral drug prices in local currencies did not differ that much between countries, conversion to US$ purchasing parity prices revealed antiretroviral drugs were more expensive in the least wealthy countries. This needs to be taken into consideration when countries negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical vendors. Greater efficiencies can be anticipated by extending the use of the EmERGE Pathway to people with complex HIV infection or other chronic diseases. Extending such use should be systematically monitored, implementation should be evaluated and funding should be provided to monitor and evaluate future changes in service provision.

The efficiency of the EmERGE platform for medically stable people living with HIV in Portugal.

Background: The aim of this study was to calculate the cost-effectiveness of the EmERGE Pathway of Care for medically stable people living with HIV in the Hospital Capuchos, Centro Hospitalar Universitário de Lisboa Central (HC-CHLC). The app enables individuals to receive HIV treatment information and communicate with caregivers. Methods: This before-and-after study collected the use of services data 1 year before implementation and after implementation of EmERGE from November 1, 2016, to October 30, 2019. Departmental unit costs were calculated and linked to mean use of outpatient services per patient-year (MPPY). Annual costs per patient-year were combined with primary (CD4 count; viral load) and secondary outcomes (PAM-13; PROQOL-HIV). Results: Five hundred eighty-six EmERGE participants used HIV outpatient services. Annual outpatient visits decreased by 35% from 3.1 MPPY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0-3.3) to 2.0 (95% CI: 1.9-2.1) as did annual costs per patient-year from €301 (95% CI: €288-€316) to €193 (95% CI: €182-€204). Laboratory tests and costs increased by 2%, and radiology investigations decreased by 40% as did costs. Overall annual cost for HIV outpatient services decreased by 5% from €2093 (95% CI: €2071-€2112) to €1984 (95% CI: €1968-€2001); annual outpatient costs decreased from €12,069 (95% CI: €12,047-€12,088) to €11,960 (95% CI: €11,944-€11,977), with 83% of annual cost because of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Primary and secondary outcome measures did not differ substantially between periods. Conclusions: The EmERGE Pathway produced cost savings after implementation-extended to all people living with HIV additional savings are likely to be produced, which can be used to address other needs. Antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) were the main cost drivers and more expensive in Portugal compared with ARV costs in the other EmERGE sites.

The cost of care for people living with stable HIV in Croatia and the efficiency of EmERGE.

AIM: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the EmERGE Pathway of Care for medically stable people living with HIV (PLHIV) at the University Hospital for Infectious Diseases (UHID), Zagreb. The Pathway includes a mobile application enabling individuals to communicate with their caregivers. METHODS: This study involving 293 participants collected data on the use of HIV outpatient services one year before and after EmERGE implementation. In departments supporting HIV outpatients, a micro-costing exercise was performed to calculate unit costs. These were combined with mean use of HIV services per patient year (MPPY) to estimate average annual costs. Primary outcomes were CD4 count, viral load, and secondary outcomes were patient activation, PAM13; and quality of life, PROQOL-HIV. Information on out-of-pocket expenditures was also collected. RESULTS: Outpatient visits decreased by 17%, from 4.0 (95% CI 3.8-4.3) to 3.3 MPPY (95% CI 3.1-3.5). Tests, including CD4 count, decreased, all contributing to a 33% reduction of annual costs: 7139 HRK (95% CI 6766-7528) to 4781 HRK (95% CI 4504-5072). Annual costs including anti-retroviral drugs (ARVs) decreased by 5%: 43101 HRK (95% CI 42728-43,490) to 40 743 HRK (95% CI 40466-41,034). ARVs remain the main cost driver in stable PLHIV. Primary and secondary outcomes did not change substantially between periods. CONCLUSION: EmERGE Pathway was a cost-saving intervention associated with changes in management, and a reduction in outpatient visits, tests, and costs. ARV costs dominated costs. Future efficiencies are possible if EmERGE is introduced to other PLHIV across the UHID and if ARV prices are reduced.

Does the political will exist to bring quality-assured and affordable drugs to low- and middle-income countries?

BACKGROUND: Increased coverage with antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries has increased their life expectancy associated with non-HIV comorbidities and the need for quality-assured and affordable non-communicable diseases drugs . Funders are leaving many middle-income countries that will have to pay and provide quality-assured and affordable HIV and non-HIV drugs, including for non-communicable diseases. OBJECTIVE: To estimate costs for originator and generic antiretroviral therapy as the number of people living with HIV are projected to increase between 2016 and 2026, and discuss country, regional and global factors associated with increased access to generic drugs. METHODS: Based on estimates of annual demand and prices, annual cost estimates were produced for generic and originator antiretroviral drug prices in low- and middle-income countries and projected for 2016-2026. RESULTS: Drug costs varied between US$1.5 billion and US$4.8 billion for generic drugs and US$ 8.2 billion and US$16.5 billion for originator drugs between 2016 and 2026. DISCUSSION: The global HIV response increased access to affordable generic drugs in low- and middle-income countries. Cheaper active pharmaceutical ingredients and market competition were responsible for reduced drug costs. The development and implementation of regulatory changes at country, regional and global levels, covering intellectual property rights and public health, and flexibilities in patent laws enabled prices to be reduced. These changes have not yet been applied in many low- and middle-income countries for HIV, nor for other infectious and non-communicable diseases, that lack the profile and political attention of HIV. Licensing backed up with Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights safeguards should become the norm to provide quality-assured and affordable drugs within competitive generic markets. CONCLUSION: Does the political will exist among policymakers and other stakeholders to develop and implement these country, regional and global frameworks for non-HIV drugs as they did for antiretroviral drugs?

Global and regional trends of people living with HIV aged 50 and over: Estimates and projections for 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: The increasing numbers of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have near normal life-expectancy, resulting in more people living with HIV over the age of 50 years (PLHIV50+). Estimates of the number of PLHIV50+ are needed for the development of tailored therapeutic and prevention interventions at country, regional and global level. METHODS: The AIDS Impact Module of the Spectrum software was used to compute the numbers of PLHIV, new infections, and AIDS-related deaths for PLHIV50+ for the years 2000-2016. Projections until 2020 were calculated based on an assumed ART scale-up to 81% coverage by 2020, consistent with the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets. RESULTS: Globally, there were 5.7 million [4.7 million- 6.6 million] PLHIV50+ in 2016. The proportion of PLHIV50+ increased substantially from 8% in 2000 to 16% in 2016 and is expected to increase to 21% by 2020. In 2016, 80% of PLHIV50+ lived in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with Eastern and Southern Africa containing the largest number of PLHIV50+. While the proportion of PLHIV50+ was greater in high income countries, LMICs have higher numbers of PLHIV50+ that are expected to continue to increase by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The number of PLHIV50+ has increased dramatically since 2000 and this is expected to continue by 2020, especially in LMICs. HIV prevention campaigns, testing and treatment programs should also focus on the specific needs of PLHIV50+. Integrated health and social services should be developed to cater for the changing physical, psychological and social needs of PLHIV50+, many of whom will need to use HIV and non-HIV services.

Global Burden of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in People Living With HIV: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: With advances in antiretroviral therapy, most deaths in people with HIV are now attributable to noncommunicable illnesses, especially cardiovascular disease. We determine the association between HIV and cardiovascular disease, and estimate the national, regional, and global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to HIV. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review across 5 databases from inception to August 2016 for longitudinal studies of cardiovascular disease in HIV infection. A random-effects meta-analysis across 80 studies was used to derive the pooled rate and risk of cardiovascular disease in people living with HIV. We then estimated the temporal changes in the population-attributable fraction and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from HIV-associated cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2015 at a regional and global level. National cardiovascular DALYs associated with HIV for 2015 were derived for 154 of the 193 United Nations member states. The main outcome measure was the pooled estimate of the rate and risk of cardiovascular disease in people living with HIV and the national, regional, and global estimates of DALYs from cardiovascular disease associated with HIV. RESULTS: In 793 635 people living with HIV and a total follow-up of 3.5 million person-years, the crude rate of cardiovascular disease was 61.8 (95% CI, 45.8-83.4) per 10 000 person-years. In comparison with individuals without HIV, the risk ratio for cardiovascular disease was 2.16 (95% CI, 1.68-2.77). Over the past 26 years, the global population-attributable fraction from cardiovascular disease attributable to HIV increased from 0.36% (95% CI, 0.21%-0.56%) to 0.92% (95% CI, 0.55%-1.41%), and DALYs increased from 0.74 (95% CI, 0.44-1.16) to 2.57 (95% CI, 1.53-3.92) million. There was marked regional variation with most DALYs lost in sub-Saharan Africa (0.87 million, 95% CI, 0.43-1.70) and the Asia Pacific (0.39 million, 95% CI, 0.23-0.62) regions. The highest population-attributable fraction and burden were observed in Swaziland, Botswana, and Lesotho. CONCLUSIONS: People living with HIV are twice as likely to develop cardiovascular disease. The global burden of HIV-associated cardiovascular disease has tripled over the past 2 decades and is now responsible for 2.6 million DALYs per annum with the greatest impact in sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia Pacific regions. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero . Unique identifier: CRD42016048257.

Developing and implementing national health identifiers in resource limited countries: why, what, who, when and how?

Many resource-limited countries are scaling up health services and health-information systems (HISs). The HIV Cascade framework aims to link treatment services and programs to improve outcomes and impact. It has been adapted to HIV prevention services, other infectious and non-communicable diseases, and programs for specific populations. Where successful, it links the use of health services by individuals across different disease categories, time and space. This allows for the development of longitudinal health records for individuals and de-identified individual level information is used to monitor and evaluate the use, cost, outcome and impact of health services. Contemporary digital technology enables countries to develop and implement integrated HIS to support person centred services, a major aim of the Sustainable Development Goals. The key to link the diverse sources of information together is a national health identifier (NHID). In a country with robust civil protections, this should be given at birth, be unique to the individual, linked to vital registration services and recorded every time that an individual uses health services anywhere in the country: it is more than just a number as it is part of a wider system. Many countries would benefit from practical guidance on developing and implementing NHIDs. Organizations such as ASTM and ISO, describe the technical requirements for the NHID system, but few countries have received little practical guidance. A WHO/UNAIDS stake-holders workshop was held in Geneva, Switzerland in July 2016, to provide a 'road map' for countries and included policy-makers, information and healthcare professionals, and members of civil society. As part of any NHID system, countries need to strengthen and secure the protection of personal health information. While often the technology is available, the solution is not just technical. It requires political will and collaboration among all stakeholders to be successful.

Attitudes towards homosexuals in seven Caribbean countries: implications for an effective HIV response.

Between 2000 and 2015, the number of people newly infected with HIV in the Caribbean decreased by 76% and HIV-related deaths by 42%. The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) increased from near zero to 50% (44% to 57%) in 2015. In many Caribbean countries communities of men-who-have-sex-with-other-men (MSM) have higher incidence and prevalence of HIV. They are often stigmatized and subjected to both social and institutional discrimination. This study compared attitudes of the general public obtained through public opinion polls 2013-2014 towards homosexuals and willingness to socialize with them in seven Caribbean countries. Informants were asked if they "hate, tolerate or accept" homosexuals and if they would socialize with them. In St. Vincent 53% indicated they "hate" homosexuals, compared with 12% in Suriname; the converse was observed for those who "accept" homosexuals; 63% of St. Vincent informants would not socialize with homosexuals, compared with 25% in Suriname. Findings for the other 5 countries fell within these ranges. Women were more likely to accept and socialize with homosexuals, as were informants with a tertiary education and "passive" religious believers. These groups are less likely to adhere to a culture of "compulsory heterosexuality" or "hyper-masculinity" dominant among Caribbean men. The homophobic views expressed by these cultures result in stigma and discrimination by members of the "general" public towards MSM. This negatively affects the involvement of MSM in successful national HIV responses. Public messaging, communications campaigns and educational measures need to be employed to change the culture of "compulsory heterosexuality" or "hyper-masculinity" that result in stigma and discrimination of homosexuals to improve early access to services by MSM. Repeat use of well performed opinion polls is one method that can be employed to monitor progress over time in "key" and "general" populations.

Protecting the confidentiality and security of personal health information in low- and middle-income countries in the era of SDGs and Big Data.

BACKGROUND: As increasing amounts of personal information are being collected through a plethora of electronic modalities by statutory and non-statutory organizations, ensuring the confidentiality and security of such information has become a major issue globally. While the use of many of these media can be beneficial to individuals or populations, they can also be open to abuse by individuals or statutory and non-statutory organizations. Recent examples include collection of personal information by national security systems and the development of national programs like the Chinese Social Credit System. In many low- and middle-income countries, an increasing amount of personal health information is being collected. The collection of personal health information is necessary, in order to develop longitudinal medical records and to monitor and evaluate the use, cost, outcome, and impact of health services at facility, sub-national, and national levels. However, if personal health information is not held confidentially and securely, individuals with communicable or non-communicable diseases (NCDs) may be reluctant to use preventive or therapeutic health services, due to fear of being stigmatized or discriminated against. While policymakers and other stakeholders in these countries recognize the need to develop and implement policies for protecting the privacy, confidentiality and security of personal health information, to date few of these countries have developed, let alone implemented, coherent policies. The global HIV response continues to emphasize the importance of collecting HIV-health information, recently re-iterated by the Fast Track to End AIDS by 2030 program and the recent changes in the Guidelines on When to Start Antiretroviral Therapy and on Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV. The success of developing HIV treatment cascades in low- and middle-income countries will require the development of National Health Identification Systems. The success of programs like Universal Health Coverage, under the recently ratified Sustainable Development Goals is also contingent on the availability of personal health information for communicable and non-communicable diseases. DESIGN: Guidance for countries to develop and implement their own guidelines for protecting HIV-information formed the basis of identifying a number of fundamental principles, governing the areas of privacy, confidentiality and security. The use of individual-level data must balance maximizing the benefits from their most effective and fullest use, and minimizing harm resulting from their malicious or inadvertent release. DISCUSSION: These general principles are described in this paper, as along with a bibliography referring to more detailed technical information. A country assessment tool and user's manual, based on these principles, have been developed to support countries to assess the privacy, confidentiality, and security of personal health information at facility, data warehouse/repository, and national levels. The successful development and implementation of national guidance will require strong collaboration at local, regional, and national levels, and this is a pre-condition for the successful implementation of a range of national and global programs. CONCLUSION: This paper is a call for action for stakeholders in low- and middle-income countries to develop and implement such coherent policies and provides fundamental principles governing the areas of privacy, confidentiality, and security of personal health information being collected in low- and middle-income countries.

Scaling-up the use of generic antiretrovirals in resource-limited countries: generic drugs for health.

The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) continues to increase around the world because of the increasing number on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and their associated increase of life expectancy, in addition to the number of people newly infected with HIV each year. Unless a 'cure' can be found for HIV infection, PLHIV can anticipate the need to take antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for the rest of their lives. Because ARVs are now being used for HIV prevention, as well as for therapeutic purposes, the need for effective, affordable ARVs with few adverse effects will continue to rise. It is important to note that the dramatic growth in treatment coverage of PLHIV seen during the past decade has been primarily due to the increased use of generic ARVs. Thus, there will be a need to scale-up the research and development, production, distribution and access to generic ARVs and ART regimens. However, these processes must occur within national and international regulated free-market economic systems and must deal with increasingly multifaceted patent issues affecting the price while ensuring the quality of the ARVs. National and international regulatory mechanisms will have to evolve, which will affect broader national and international economic and trade issues. Because of the complexity of these issues, the Editors of this Supplement conceived of asking experts in their fields to describe the various steps from relevant research and development, to production of generic ARVs, their delivery to countries and subsequently to PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries. A main objective was to highlight how these steps are interrelated, how the production and delivery of these drugs to PLHIV in resource-limited countries can be made more effective and efficient, and what the lessons are for the production and delivery of a broader set of drugs to people in low- and middle-income countries.

Superior outcomes and lower outpatient costs with scale-up of antiretroviral therapy at the GHESKIO clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

BACKGROUND: Treatment protocols and prices of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have changed over time. Yet, limited data exist to evaluate the impact of these changes on patient outcomes and treatment costs in resource-poor settings. METHODS: We compared patient-level data on outcomes, utilization, and cost for the first 2 years of ART for a cohort of adult patients initiating ART in 2003-2004 and a cohort initiating ART in 2006-2008 at the Haitian Group for the Study of Kaposi's Sarcoma and Opportunistic Infections clinic (GHESKIO) in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Costs were measured from the health center perspective. Multivariate analyses were conducted to account for the potential impact of differences in disease severity at baseline. RESULTS: With the exclusion of patients who transferred care, 92% (167/181) of patients in the 2006-2008 cohort and 75% (150/200) in the 2003-2004 cohort were alive and in care at the end of the study period. The mean cost per patient for the 2-year study period was US$723 for the 2006-2008 cohort vs. US$1191 for the 2003-2004 cohort, a cost difference of US$468 (P < 0.0001). The mean cost per patient alive and in care at the end of the 2-year study period was US$744 for the 2006-2008 cohort vs. US$1489 for the 2003-2004 cohort (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: HIV treatment outcomes in Haiti have improved over time while treatment costs declined by over 50% per patient alive and in care at the end of the 2-year study period. The major drivers in the reduction of treatment costs were the lower price of ART, lower costs for laboratory testing, and lower overhead costs.

Expanded HIV testing in low-prevalence, high-income countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis for the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE: In many high-income countries with low HIV prevalence, significant numbers of persons living with HIV (PLHIV) remain undiagnosed. Identification of PLHIV via HIV testing offers timely access to lifesaving antiretroviral therapy (ART) and decreases HIV transmission. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HIV testing in the United Kingdom (UK), where 25% of PLHIV are estimated to be undiagnosed. DESIGN: We developed a dynamic compartmental model to analyze strategies to expand HIV testing and treatment in the UK, with particular focus on men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and individuals from HIV-endemic countries. METHODS: We estimated HIV prevalence, incidence, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and health care costs over 10 years, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Annual HIV testing of all adults could avert 5% of new infections, even with no behavior change following HIV diagnosis because of earlier ART initiation, or up to 18% if risky behavior is halved. This strategy costs £67,000-£106,000/QALY gained. Providing annual testing only to MSM, PWID, and people from HIV-endemic countries, and one-time testing for all other adults, prevents 4-15% of infections, requires one-fourth as many tests to diagnose each PLHIV, and costs £17,500/QALY gained. Augmenting this program with increased ART access could add 145,000 QALYs to the population over 10 years, at £26,800/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Annual HIV testing of key populations in the UK is very cost-effective. Additional one-time testing of all other adults could identify the majority of undiagnosed PLHIV. These findings are potentially relevant to other low-prevalence, high-income countries.

HIV epidemic control-a model for optimal allocation of prevention and treatment resources.

With 33 million people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and 2.7 million new infections occurring annually, additional HIV prevention and treatment efforts are urgently needed. However, available resources for HIV control are limited and must be used efficiently to minimize the future spread of the epidemic. We develop a model to determine the appropriate resource allocation between expanded HIV prevention and treatment services. We create an epidemic model that incorporates multiple key populations with different transmission modes, as well as production functions that relate investment in prevention and treatment programs to changes in transmission and treatment rates. The goal is to allocate resources to minimize R 0, the reproductive rate of infection. We first develop a single-population model and determine the optimal resource allocation between HIV prevention and treatment. We extend the analysis to multiple independent populations, with resource allocation among interventions and populations. We then include the effects of HIV transmission between key populations. We apply our model to examine HIV epidemic control in two different settings, Uganda and Russia. As part of these applications, we develop a novel approach for estimating empirical HIV program production functions. Our study provides insights into the important question of resource allocation for a country's optimal response to its HIV epidemic and provides a practical approach for decision makers. Better decisions about allocating limited HIV resources can improve response to the epidemic and increase access to HIV prevention and treatment services for millions of people worldwide.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of HIV community services: quantity and quality of studies published 1986-2011.

Community services comprise an important part of a country's HIV response. English language cost and cost-effectiveness studies of HIV community services published between 1986 and 2011 were reviewed but only 74 suitable studies were identified, 66% of which were performed in five countries. Mean study scores by continent varied from 42 to 69% of the maximum score, reflecting variation in topics covered and the quality of coverage: 38% of studies covered key and 11% other vulnerable populations - a country's response is most effective and efficient if these populations are identified given they are key to a successful response. Unit costs were estimated using different costing methods and outcomes. Community services will need to routinely collect and analyze information on their use, cost, outcome and impact using standardized costing methods and outcomes. Cost estimates need to be disaggregated into relevant cost items and stratified by severity and existing comorbidities. Expenditure tracking and costing of services are complementary aspects of the health sector 'resource cycle' that feed into a country's investment framework and the development and implementation of national strategic plans.

Lower healthcare costs associated with the use of a single-pill ARV regimen in the UK, 2004-2008.

AIM: Investigate the cost and effects of a single-pill versus two- or three pill first-line antiretroviral combinations in reducing viral load, increasing CD4 counts, and first-line failure rate associated with respective regimens at 6 and 12 months. METHODS: Patients on first-line TDF+3TC+EFV, TDF+FTC+EFV, Truvada®+EFV or Atripla® between 1996-2008 were identified and viral load and CD4 counts measured at baseline, six and twelve months respectively. Factors that independently predicted treatment failure at six and twelve months were derived using multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression analyses. Use and cost of hospital services were calculated at six and twelve months respectively. RESULTS: All regimens reduced viral load to below the limit of detection and CD4 counts increased to similar levels at six and twelve months for all treatment regimens. No statistically significant differences were observed for rate of treatment failure at six and twelve months. People on Atripla® generated lower healthcare costs for non-AIDS patients at £5,340 (£5,254 to £5,426) per patient-semester and £9,821 (£9,719 to £9,924) per patient-year that was £1,344 (95%CI £1,222 to £1,465) less per patient-semester and £1,954 (95%CI £1,801 to £2,107) less per patient-year compared with Truvada®+EFV; healthcare costs for AIDS patients were similar across all regimens. CONCLUSION: The single pill regimen is as effective as the two- and three-pill regimens of the same drugs, but if started as first-line induction therapy there would be a 20% savings on healthcare costs at six and 17% of costs at twelve months compared with Truvada®+EFV, that generated the next lowest costs.

Counting the cost of not costing HIV health facilities accurately: pay now, or pay more later.

The HIV pandemic continues to be one of our greatest contemporary public health threats. Policy makers in many middle- and low-income countries are in the process of scaling up HIV prevention, treatment and care services in the context of a reduction in international HIV funding due to the global economic downturn. In order to scale up services that are sustainable in the long term, policy makers and implementers need to have access to robust and contemporary strategic information, including financial information on expenditure and cost, in order to be able to plan, implement, monitor and evaluate HIV services. A major problem in middle- and low-income countries continues to be a lack of basic information on the use of services, their cost, outcome and impact, while those few costing studies that have been performed were often not done in a standardized fashion. Some researchers handle this by transposing information from one country to another, developing mathematical or statistical models that rest on assumptions or information that may not be applicable, or using top-down costing methods that only provide global financial costs rather than using bottom-up ingredients-based costing. While these methods provide answers in the short term, countries should develop systematic data collection systems to store, transfer and produce robust and contemporary strategic financial information for stakeholders at local, sub-national and national levels. National aggregated information should act as the main source of financial data for international donors, agencies or other organizations involved with the global HIV response. This paper describes the financial information required by policy makers and other stakeholders to enable them to make evidence-informed decisions and reviews the quantity and quality of the financial information available, as indicated by cost studies published between 1981 and 2008. Among the lessons learned from reviewing these studies, a need was identified for providing countries with practical guidance to produce reliable and standardized costing data to monitor performance, as countries want to improve programmes and services, and have to demonstrate an efficient use of resources. Finally, the issues raised in this paper relate to the provision of all areas of healthcare in countries and it is going to be increasingly important to leverage the lessons learned from the HIV experience and use resources more effectively and efficiently to improve health systems in general.

Are long-term non-progressors very slow progressors? Insights from the Chelsea and Westminster HIV cohort, 1988-2010.

Define and identify long-term non-progressors (LTNP) and HIV controllers (HIC), and estimate time until disease progression. LTNP are HIV-1(+) patients who maintain stable CD4(+) T-cell counts, with no history of opportunistic infection or antiretroviral therapy (ART). HIC are a subset of LTNP who additionally have undetectable viraemia. These individuals may provide insights for prophylactic and therapeutic development. Records of HIV-1(+) individuals attending Chelsea and Westminster Hospital (1988-2010), were analysed. LTNP were defined as: HIV-1(+) for >7 years; ART-naïve; no history of opportunistic infection and normal, stable CD4(+) T-cell counts. MIXED procedure in SAS using random intercept model identified long-term stable CD4(+) T-cell counts. Survival analysis estimated time since diagnosis until disease progression. Subjects exhibiting long-term stable CD4(+) T-cell counts with history below the normal range (<450 cells/µl blood) were compared to LTNP whose CD4(+) T-cell count always remained normal. Within these two groups subjects with HIV-1 RNA load below limit of detection (BLD) were identified. Of 14,227 patients, 1,204 were diagnosed HIV-1(+) over 7 years ago and were ART-naïve. Estimated time until disease progression for the 20% (239) whose CD4(+) T-cell counts remained within the normal range, was 6.2 years (IQR: 2.0 to 9.6); significantly longer than 4.0 years (IQR: 1.0 to 7.3) for patients with historical CD4(+) T-cell count below normal (Logrank chi-squared = 21.26; p<0.001). Within a subpopulation of 312 asymptomatic patients, 50 exhibited long-term stable CD4(+) T-cell counts. Of these, 13 were LTNP, one of whom met HIC criteria. Of the remaining 37 patients with long-term stable low CD4(+) T-cell counts, 3 controlled HIV-1 RNA load BLD. Individuals with stable, normal CD4(+) T-cell counts progressed less rapidly than those with low CD4(+) T-cell counts. Few LTNP and HIC identified in this and other studies, endorse the need for universal definitions to facilitate comparison.