Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change.

Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change1. Signals of biodiversity change come from time-series abundance datasets for thousands of species over large geographic and temporal scales. Analyses of these biodiversity datasets have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases and decreases. However, these analyses have not fully accounted for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures in the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile biodiversity datasets2-11 that increases and decreases under existing approaches vanish once spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures are accounted for. This is a consequence of existing approaches severely underestimating trend uncertainty and sometimes misestimating the trend direction. Under our revised average abundance trends that appropriately recognize uncertainty, we failed to observe a single increasing or decreasing trend at 95% credible intervals in our ten datasets. This emphasizes how little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales. Despite this uncertainty at vast scales, we reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures. Improved prediction offers hope of estimating biodiversity change at policy-relevant scales, guiding adaptive conservation responses.

Phenotypic convergence along a gradient of predation risk.

A long-standing question in ecology is whether phenotypic plasticity, rather than selection per se, is responsible for phenotypic variation among populations. Plasticity can increase or decrease variation, but most previous studies have been limited to single populations, single traits and a small number of environments assessed using univariate reaction norms. Here, examining two genetically distinct populations of Daphnia pulex with different predation histories, we quantified predator-induced plasticity among 11 traits along a fine-scale gradient of predation risk by a predator (Chaoborus) common to both populations. We test the hypothesis that plasticity can be responsible for convergence in phenotypes among different populations by experimentally characterizing multivariate reaction norms with phenotypic trajectory analysis (PTA). Univariate analyses showed that all genotypes increased age and size at maturity, and invested in defensive spikes (neckteeth), but failed to quantitatively describe whole-organism response. In contrast, PTA quantified and qualified the phenotypic strategy the organism mobilized against the selection pressure. We demonstrate, at the whole-organism level, that the two populations occupy different areas of phenotypic space in the absence of predation but converge in phenotypic space as predation threat increases.

Costs, benefits and the evolution of inducible defences: a case study with Daphnia pulex.

Phenotypic plasticity is one major source of variation in natural populations. Inducible defences, which can be considered threshold traits, are a form of plasticity that generates ecological and evolutionary consequences. A simple cost-benefit model underpins the maintenance and evolution of these threshold, inducible traits. In this model, a rank-order switch in expected fitness, defined by costs and benefits of induction between defended and undefended morphs, predicts the risk level at which individuals should induce defences. Here, taking predator-induced morphological defences in Daphnia pulex as a threshold trait, we provide the first comprehensive investigation into the costs and benefits of a threshold trait, and how they combine to reflect fitness and predict the switchpoint at which induction should occur. We develop reaction norms that show genetic variation in switchpoints. Further experiments show that induction can confer a survival benefit and a cost in terms of lifetime reproductive success. Together, these two traits combine to estimate expected fitness and can predict the switchpoint between an undefended and a defended strategy. The predictions match the reaction norm data for clones that experience these costs and benefits, and correspond well to independent field data on induction. However, predictions do not, and cannot, match for clones that do not gain a benefit from induction. This study confirms that a simple theory, based on life history costs and benefits, is a sufficient framework for understanding the ecology and evolution of inducible, threshold traits.

Intraspecific competition: the role of lags between attack and death in host-parasitoid interactions.

Many natural enemies do not immediately kill their host, and the lag this creates between attack and host death results in mixed populations of uninfected and infected hosts. Both competition and parasitism are known to be major structuring forces in ecological communities; however, surprisingly little is known about how the competitive nature of infected hosts could affect the survival and dynamics of remaining uninfected host populations. Using a laboratory system comprising the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella, and a solitary koinobiont parasitoid, Venturia canescens, we address this question by conducting replicated competition experiments between the unparasitized and parasitized classes of host larvae. For varying proportions of parasitized host larvae and competitor densities, we consider the effects of competition within (intraclass) and between (interclass) unparasitized and parasitized larvae on the survival, development time, and size of adult moths and parasitoid wasps. The greatest effects were on survival: increased competitor densities reduced survival of both parasitized and unparasitized larvae. However, unparasitized larvae survival, but not parasitized larvae survival, was reduced by increasing interclass competition. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental demonstration of the competitive superiority of parasitized over unparasitized hosts for limiting resources. We discuss possible mechanisms for this phenomenon, why it may have evolved, and its possible influence on the stability of host-parasite dynamics.

Changes in maternal investment in eggs can affect population dynamics.

The way that mothers provision their offspring can have important consequences for their offspring's performance throughout life. Models suggest that maternally induced variation in life histories may have large population dynamical effects, even perhaps driving cycles such as those seen in forest Lepidoptera. The evidence for large maternal influences on population dynamics is unconvincing, principally because of the difficulty of conducting experiments at both the individual and population level. In the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, we show that there is a trade-off between a female's fecundity and the per-egg provisioning of protein. The mother's position on this trade-off depends on her current food availability and her age. Populations initiated with 250 eggs of different mean sizes showed significant differences in the population dynamics, converging only after three generations. Differences in the growth, maturation and fecundity of the initial cohort caused differences in the competitive environment for the next generation, which, in turn, created differences in their growth and reproduction. Maternal effects in one generation can therefore lead to population dynamical consequences over many generations. Where animals live in environments that are temporally variable, we conjecture that maternal effects could result in long-term dynamical effects.

Experimental evidence for a behavior-mediated trophic cascade in a terrestrial food chain.

Predators of herbivorous animals can affect plant populations by altering herbivore density, behavior, or both. To test whether the indirect effect of predators on plants arises from density or behavioral responses in a herbivore population, we experimentally examined the dynamics of terrestrial food chains comprised of old field plants, leaf-chewing grasshoppers, and spider predators in Northeast Connecticut. To separate the effects of predators on herbivore density from the effects on herbivore behavior, we created two classes of spiders: (i) risk spiders that had their feeding mouth parts glued to render them incapable of killing prey and (ii) predator spiders that remained unmanipulated. We found that the effect of predators on plants resulted from predator-induced changes in herbivore behavior (shifts in activity time and diet selection) rather than from predator-induced changes in grasshopper density. Neither predator nor risk spiders had a significant effect on grasshopper density relative to a control. This demonstrates that the behavioral response of prey to predators can have a strong impact on the dynamics of terrestrial food chains. The results make a compelling case to examine behavioral as well as density effects in theoretical and empirical research on food chain dynamics.