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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Enfermedades del Sistema Nervioso Periférico , Humanos , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/efectos adversos , Masculino , Enfermedades del Sistema Nervioso Periférico/diagnóstico por imagen , Enfermedades del Sistema Nervioso Periférico/etiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , COVID-19/complicaciones , Femenino , Neuroimagen , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Encefalitis/diagnóstico por imagen , AdultoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: A large proportion of nursing home (NH) residents suffer from dementia and effects of conventional anti-dementia drugs on their health is poorly known. We aimed to investigate the associations between exposure to anti-dementia drugs and mortality among NH residents. METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal observational study involved 329 French NH and the residents admitted in these facilities since 2014 and having major neurocognitive disorder. From their electronic health records, we obtained their age, sex, level of dependency, Charlson comorbidity index, and Mini mental examination score at admission. Exposure to anti-dementia drugs was determined using their prescription into 4 categories: none, exposure to acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEI) alone, exposure to memantine alone, exposure to AChEI and memantine. Survival until the end of 2019 was studied in the entire cohort by Cox proportional hazards. To alleviate bias related to prescription of anti-dementia drugs, we formed propensity-score matched cohorts for each type of anti-dementia drug exposure, and studied survival by the same method. RESULTS: We studied 25,358 NH residents with major neurocognitive disorder. Their age at admission was 87.1 + 7.1 years and 69.8% of them were women. Exposure to anti-dementia drugs occurred in 2,550 (10.1%) for AChEI alone, in 2,055 (8.1%) for memantine alone, in 460 (0.2%) for AChEI plus memantine, whereas 20,293 (80.0%) had no exposure to anti-dementia drugs. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality were significantly reduced for these three groups exposed to anti-dementia drugs, as compared to reference group: HR: 0.826, 95%CI 0.769 to 0.888 for AChEI; 0.857, 95%CI 0.795 to 0.923 for memantine; 0.742, 95%CI 0.640 to 0.861 for AChEI plus memantine. Results were consistent in propensity-score matched cohorts. CONCLUSION: The use of conventional anti-dementia drugs is associated with a lower mortality in nursing home residents with dementia and should be widely used in this population.
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Inhibidores de la Colinesterasa , Demencia , Memantina , Casas de Salud , Humanos , Memantina/uso terapéutico , Casas de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Masculino , Demencia/tratamiento farmacológico , Demencia/mortalidad , Estudios Longitudinales , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Inhibidores de la Colinesterasa/uso terapéutico , Estudios Retrospectivos , Anciano , Hogares para Ancianos/estadística & datos numéricos , Francia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Pressure ulcers (PUs) are a common and avoidable condition among residents of nursing homes, and their consequences are severe. Reliable and simple identification of high-risk residents is a major challenge for prevention. Available tools like the Braden and Norton scale have imperfect predictive performance. The objective is to predict the occurrence of PUs in nursing home residents from electronic health record (EHR) data. DESIGN: Longitudinal retrospective nested case-control study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: EHR database of French nursing homes from 2013 to 2022. METHODS: Residents who suffered from PUs were cases and those who did not were controls. For cases, we analyzed the data available in their EHR 1 month before the occurrence of the first PU. For controls, we used available data 1 month before an index date adjusted on the delays of PU onset. We conducted a Bayesian network (BN) analysis, an explainable machine learning method, using 136 input variables of potential medical interest determined with experts. To validate the model, we used scores, features selection, and explainability tools such as Shapley values. RESULTS: Among 58,368 residents analyzed, 29% suffered from PUs during their stay. The obtained BN model predicts the occurrence of a PU at a 1-month horizon with a sensitivity of 0.94 (±0.01), a precision of 0.32 (±0.01) and an area under the curve of 0.69 (±0.02). It selects 3 variables: length of stay, delay since last hospitalization, and dependence for transfer. This BN model is suitable and simpler than models provided by other machine learning methods. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: One-month prediction for incident PU is possible in nursing home residents from their EHR data. The study paves the way for the development of a predictive tool fueled by routinely collected data that do not require additional work from health care professionals, thereby opening a new preventive strategy for PUs.
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Teorema de Bayes , Casas de Salud , Úlcera por Presión , Úlcera por Presión/epidemiología , Úlcera por Presión/prevención & control , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Femenino , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Anciano , Estudios Longitudinales , Francia/epidemiología , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: A Stroke care Pathway dedicated to the ELders (SPEL) for patients with acute stroke was created in 2013 at the hospitals Pitié-Salpêtrière-Charles Foix (Paris, France). It is characterized by a stroke unit dedicated to emergency stroke care, and a post stroke geriatric unit (PSGU) including rehabilitation and management of geriatric syndromes. The aim of the study was to compare the functional recovery of patients transferred to PSGU versus other rehabilitation care in patients over 70 years of age after stroke. DESIGN: A cohort observational study over a 4-year period. SETTING: Hospitals Pitié-Salpêtrière and Charles Foix (Paris, France). PARTICIPANTS: We studied patients over 70 years admitted to the participating stroke unit for acute stroke consecutively hospitalized from January 1, 2013, to January 1, 2017. INTERVENTION: Patients transferred in the PSGU were compared to those admitted in other rehabilitation units. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was 3-month functional recovery after stroke. The secondary outcomes were the hospital length of stay and the returning home rate. A multivariable logistic regression was applied to adjust for confounding variables (age, sex, NIHSS score and Charlson's comorbidity score). RESULTS: Among the 262 patients included in the study, those in the PGSU were significantly older, had a higher Charlson's comorbidity score and a higher initial NIHSS severity score. As compared to the other patients, functional recovery at 3 months was better in the PSGU (Rankin's score decreased by 0.80 points versus 0.41 points, p = 0.01). The average total length of stay was reduced by 16 days in the patients referred to the PSGU (p = 0.002). There was no significant difference in the returning home rate between the two groups (p = 0.88). CONCLUSION: The SPEL which includes a post-stroke geriatric unit (PSGU) has been associated with improved recovery and had a positive impact in the management of older post-stroke patients.
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Tiempo de Internación , Recuperación de la Función , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Humanos , Anciano , Femenino , Masculino , Rehabilitación de Accidente Cerebrovascular/métodos , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Accidente Cerebrovascular/terapia , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Francia , Estudios de Cohortes , Resultado del Tratamiento , Unidades Hospitalarias , Evaluación Geriátrica/métodos , Evaluación Geriátrica/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Frailty assessment is a major issue in geriatric medicine. The Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13) is a simple and practical tool that identifies frailty through a 13-item questionnaire completed by older adults or their family caregivers by self-administration (pencil and paper) or by telephone interview. The VES-13 provides a 10-point score that is also a recognized mortality predictor. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to design an electronic version of the Echelle de Vulnérabilité des Ainés-13, the French version of the VES-13 (eEVA-13) for use on a digital tablet and validate it. METHODS: The scale was implemented as a web App in 3 different screens and used on an Android tablet (14.0× 25.6 cm). Participants were patients attending the outpatient clinic of a French geriatric hospital or hospitalized in a rehabilitation ward and family caregivers of geriatric patients. They completed the scale twice, once by a reference method (self-administered questionnaire or telephone interview) and once by eEVA-13 using the digital tablet. Agreement for diagnosis of frailty was assessed with the κ coefficient, and scores were compared by Bland and Altman plots and interclass correlation coefficients. User experience was assessed by a self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: In total, 86 participants, including 40 patients and 46 family caregivers, participated in the study. All family caregivers had previously used digital devices, while 13 (32.5%) and 10 (25%) patients had no or infrequent use of them previously. We observed no failure to complete the eEVA-13, and 70% of patients (28/40) and no family caregivers needed support to complete the eEVA-13. The agreement between the eEVA-13 and the reference method for the diagnosis of frailty was excellent (κ=0.92) with agreement in 83 cases and disagreement in 3 cases. The mean difference between the scores provided by the 2 scales was 0.081 (95% CI-1.263 to 1.426). Bland and Altman plots showed a high level of agreement between the eEVA-13 and the reference methods and interclass correlation coefficient value was 0.997 (95% CI 0.994-0.998) for the paper and tablet group and 0.977 (95% CI 0.957-0.988) for the phone and tablet groups. The tablet assessment was found to be easy to use by 77.5% (31/40) of patients and by 96% (44/46) of caregivers. Finally, 85% (39/46) of family caregivers and 50% (20/40) of patients preferred the eEVA-13 to the original version. CONCLUSIONS: The eEVA-13 is an appropriate digital tool for diagnosing frailty and can be used by older adults and their family caregivers. The scores obtained with eEVA-13 are highly correlated with those obtained with the original version. The use of health questionnaires on digital tablets is feasible in frail and very old patients, although some patients may need help to use them.
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Fragilidad , Humanos , Anciano , Fragilidad/diagnóstico , Evaluación Geriátrica/métodos , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Anciano FrágilRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Presbycusis is the physiological decrease in hearing due to advancing age and begins well before the sixth decade. These recommendations recall the principles of early diagnosis of presbycusis and the means of optimal rehabilitation as soon as the first symptoms appear. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The recommendations are based on a systematic analysis of the literature carried out by a multidisciplinary group of ENT physicians, audiologists, geriatricians and hearing specialists from all over France. They are classified as grade A, B, C or professional agreement according to a decreasing level of scientific evidence. RESULTS: The diagnosis of presbycusis is more difficult at the beginning of its evolution but a certain number of tools are available for its early diagnosis and its face-to-face or remote management. CONCLUSION: In the case of a clinical profile suggestive of presbycusis in a young subject, especially if there are several family cases, it is recommended to propose a genetic investigation. Free-field speech audiometry in noise is recommended to measure intelligibility in a realistic environment. Questionnaires in addition to audiometric tests would allow the best assessment of the patient's disability. Hearing rehabilitation with a hearing aid or cochlear implant may slow or prevent cognitive decline. Combined auditory and cognitive rehabilitation should be offered regardless of the time since the hearing was fitting. It is recommended to integrate programs accessible via smartphones, tablets or the Internet, that include different training domains to complement face-to-face sessions.
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An automated ML classifier predicting pressure ulcers one-month before performs better than the reference methods currently used in nursing homes.
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Úlcera por Presión , Humanos , Factores de Riesgo , Úlcera por Presión/prevención & control , Casas de SaludRESUMEN
AIMS: Cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is an under-diagnosed cause of heart failure (HF) and has a worse prognosis than other forms of HF. The frequency of death or rehospitalization following discharge for acute heart failure (AHF) in CA (relative to other causes) has not been documented. The study aims to compare hospital readmission and death rates 90 days after discharge for AHF in patients with vs. without CA and to identify risk factors associated with these events in each group. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with HF and CA (HF + CA+) were recruited from the ICREX cohort, after screening of their medical records. The cases were matched 1:5 by sex and age with control HF patients without CA (HF + CA-). There were 27 HF + CA + and 135 HF + CA- patients from the ICREX cohort included in the study. Relative to the HF + CA- group, HF + CA+ patients had a higher heart rate (P = 0.002) and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide levels (P < 0.001) and lower blood pressure (P < 0.001), weight, and body mass index values (P < 0.001) on discharge. Ninety days after discharge, the HF + CA+ group displayed a higher death rate, a higher all-cause hospital readmission rate, and a higher hospital readmission rate for AHF. Death and hospital readmissions occurred sooner after discharge in the HF + CA+ group than in the HF + CA- group. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of CA in patients with HF was associated with a three-fold greater risk of death and a two-fold greater risk of all-cause hospital readmission 90 days after discharge. These findings emphasize the importance of close, active management of patients with CA and AHF.
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Amiloidosis , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Humanos , Readmisión del Paciente , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/complicaciones , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/epidemiología , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/terapia , Pronóstico , Alta del Paciente , Amiloidosis/complicaciones , Amiloidosis/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Presbycusis is the physiological decrease in hearing due to advancing age and begins well before the sixth decade. These recommendations recall the principles of early diagnosis of presbycusis and the means of optimal rehabilitation as soon as the first symptoms appear. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The recommendations are based on a systematic analysis of the literature carried out by a multidisciplinary group of doctors and audioprosthetists from all over France. They are graded A, B, C or expert opinion according to decreasing level of scientific evidence. RESULTS: The diagnosis of presbycusis is more difficult at the beginning of its evolution but a certain number of tools are available for its early diagnosis and its management in face-to-face or even distance learning. CONCLUSION: In case of a clinical profile suggestive of presbycusis in a young subject, especially if there are several family cases, it is recommended to propose a genetic investigation. It is recommended to perform free-field speech audiometry in noise to measure intelligibility in an environment as close as possible to reality. Questionnaires can be used in addition to audiometry to best assess the patient's disability. It is recommended that hearing rehabilitation with a hearing aid or cochlear implant may slow or prevent cognitive decline. Combined auditory and cognitive rehabilitation should be offered regardless of the time elapsed since the fitting. It is recommended to integrate programs accessible via smartphones, tablets or the Internet, integrating different training domains in addition to face-to-face sessions.
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Audiología , Geriatría , Otolaringología , Presbiacusia , Humanos , Anciano , Presbiacusia/terapia , Presbiacusia/rehabilitación , CogniciónRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Exergaming is increasingly employed in rehabilitation for older adults. However, their effects on fall rate and fall risk remain unclear. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis that included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing exergame-assisted rehabilitation with control groups, published in French or English, from Web of Science, CINHAL, Embase, Medline, and CENTRAL (last search in June 2021). Two reviewers independently assessed the studies. Risk of bias was assessed using RoB2, PEDRO scale, and the GRADE system. The outcomes of interest were (a) fall rate, (b) risk of falling, measured by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), Timed Up and Go (TUG), One-Leg Stance, or Berg Balance Scale (BBS), (c) fear of falling, measured with the Fall Efficacy Scale (FES-I) or the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) score. Data were pooled and mean differences (MDs) between exergame and control groups were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Twenty-seven RCTs were included (1,415 participants, including 63.9% of women, with mean age ranging from 65 to 85.2 years old). Exergame-assisted interventions were associated with a reduction in the incidence of falls (4 studies, 316 participants, MD = -0.91 falls per person per year; 95% CI: -1.65 to -0.17, p = 0.02, moderate quality). Regarding fall risk (20 studies included, low-quality evidence), SPPB did not change (MD = 0.74; 95% CI: -0.12 to 1.60, p = 0.09), but all other scores were improved: BBS (MD = 2.85; 95% CI: 1.27 to -4.43, p = 0.0004), TUG (MD = -1.46; 95% CI: -2.21 to -0.71, p = 0.0001) and One-Leg Stance (MD = 7.09; 95% CI: 4.21 to 9.98, p < 0.00001). Fear of falling scores (FES-I and ABC) showed no difference. CONCLUSION: There is moderate-quality evidence of a reduction in the fall rate with exergame-assisted rehabilitation and low-quality evidence suggesting a mild reduction in the risk of falling. Statistically significant benefits from exergame-assisted rehabilitation did not achieve clinically meaningful changes in risk of falling assessments.
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Videojuego de Ejercicio , Miedo , Femenino , Humanos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
Societal expectations underline the importance of offering nursing home résidents an environment that is favorable to health and quality of life. Experimental studies conducted on the enriched environment have shown interesting perspectives without, however, transposing them to the living environment of the older persons. The enriched garden is an innovative concept in geriatrics, resulting from translational research that could provide encouraging answers to the question of improving the living environment in psycho-geriatric institutions.
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Geriatría , Calidad de Vida , Humanos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más AñosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) have cardiovascular effects in addition to their neurological activity and might alter mortality. We wanted to know if treatment with ChEIs modifies mortality in patients with dementia. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov and ICRTP, from their inception to November 2021, and screened bibliographies of reviews, guidelines and included studies. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomized controlled studies at lower risk of bias comparing ChEI treatment with placebo or usual treatment, for 6 months or longer, in patients with dementia of any type. Two investigators independently assessed studies for inclusion, assessed their risk of bias and extracted data, using predefined forms. Any discordance between investigators was solved by discussion and consensus. Data on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, measured as either crude death rates or multivariate adjusted hazard ratios (HR), was pooled using a random-effect model. Information size achieved was assessed using trial sequential analysis (TSA). We followed PRISMA guidelines. RESULTS: 24 studies (12 RCTs, 12 cohorts, mean follow-up 6 to 120 months), cumulating 79 153 patients with Alzheimer's (13 studies), Parkinson's (1), vascular (1) or any type (9) dementia, fulfilled inclusion criteria. Pooled all-cause mortality in control patients was 15.1 per 100 person-years. Treatment with ChEIs was associated with lower all-cause mortality (unadjusted RR 0.74, 95%CI 0.66 - 0.84; adjusted HR 0.77, 95%CI 0.70 - 0.84, moderate to high quality evidence). This result was consistent between randomized and non-randomized studies and in several sensitivity analyses. No difference appeared between subgroups by type of dementia, age, individual drug or dementia severity. Less data was available for cardiovascular mortality (3 RCTs, 2 cohorts, 9 182 patients, low to moderate quality evidence), which was also lower in patients treated with ChEIs (unadjusted RR 0.61, 95%CI 0.40 - 0.93, adjusted HR 0.47, 95%CI 0.32 - 0.68). In TSA analysis, results for all-cause mortality were conclusive, but not those for cardiovascular mortality. DISCUSSION: There is moderate to high quality evidence of a consistent association between long-term treatment with ChEIs and a reduction in all-cause mortality in patients with dementia. These findings may influence decisions to prescribe ChEIs in those patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: This systematic review was registered in the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews with the number CRD42021254458 (11/06/2021).
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BACKGROUND: Frail older people use emergency services extensively, and digital systems that monitor health remotely could be useful in reducing these visits by earlier detection of worsening health conditions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to implement a system that produces alerts when the machine learning algorithm identifies a short-term risk for an emergency department (ED) visit and examine health interventions delivered after these alerts and users' experience. This study highlights the feasibility of the general system and its performance in reducing ED visits. It also evaluates the accuracy of alerts' prediction. METHODS: An uncontrolled multicenter trial was conducted in community-dwelling older adults receiving assistance from home aides (HAs). We implemented an eHealth system that produces an alert for a high risk of ED visits. After each home visit, the HAs completed a questionnaire on participants' functional status, using a smartphone app, and the information was processed in real time by a previously developed machine learning algorithm that identifies patients at risk of an ED visit within 14 days. In case of risk, the eHealth system alerted a coordinating nurse who could then inform the family carer and the patient's nurses or general practitioner. The primary outcomes were the rate of ED visits and the number of deaths after alert-triggered health interventions (ATHIs) and users' experience with the eHealth system; the secondary outcome was the accuracy of the eHealth system in predicting ED visits. RESULTS: We included 206 patients (mean age 85, SD 8 years; 161/206, 78% women) who received aid from 109 HAs, and the mean follow-up period was 10 months. The HAs monitored 2656 visits, which resulted in 405 alerts. Two ED visits were recorded following 131 alerts with an ATHI (2/131, 1.5%), whereas 36 ED visits were recorded following 274 alerts that did not result in an ATHI (36/274, 13.4%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 0.10 (95% IC 0.02-0.43; P<.001). Five patients died during the study. All had alerts, 4 did not have an ATHI and were hospitalized, and 1 had an ATHI (P=.04). In terms of overall usability, the digital system was easy to use for 90% (98/109) of HAs, and response time was acceptable for 89% (98/109) of them. CONCLUSIONS: The eHealth system has been successfully implemented, was appreciated by users, and produced relevant alerts. ATHIs were associated with a lower rate of ED visits, suggesting that the eHealth system might be effective in lowering the number of ED visits in this population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT05221697; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05221697.
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Inteligencia Artificial , Telemedicina , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Femenino , Hospitalización , Humanos , Vida Independiente , MasculinoRESUMEN
AIMS: The heart failure (HF) prognosis in older patients remains poor with a high 5-years mortality rate more frequently attributed to noncardiovascular causes. The complex interplay between frailty and heart failure contribute to poor health outcomes of older adults with HF independently of ejection fraction. The aim of this position paper is to propose a practical management of frailty in older patients with heart failure. METHODS: A panel of multidisciplinary experts on behalf the Heart Failure Working Group of the French Society of Cardiology and on behalf French Society of Geriatrics and Gerontology conducted a systematic literature search on the interlink between frailty and HF, met to propose an early frailty screening by non-geriatricians and to propose ways to implement management plan of frailty. Statements were agreed by expert consensus. RESULTS: Clinically relevant aspects of interlink between frailty and HF have been reported to identify the population eligible for screening and the most suitable screening test(s). The frailty screening program proposed focuses on frailty model defined by an accumulation of deficits including geriatric syndromes, comorbidities, for older patients with HF in different settings of care. The management plan of frailty includes optimization of HF pharmacological treatments and non-surgical device treatment as well as optimization of a global patient-centred biopsychosocial blended collaborative care pathway. CONCLUSION: The current manuscript provides practical recommendations on how to screen and optimize frailty management in older patients with heart failure.
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Cardiología , Fragilidad , Geriatría , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Anciano , Humanos , Comorbilidad , Fragilidad/complicaciones , Fragilidad/epidemiología , Fragilidad/terapia , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/complicaciones , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/terapia , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Guías de Práctica Clínica como AsuntoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: In what way the physical environment of nursing homes (NHs) influences the health and well-being of nursing residents is not well codified. The authors aimed to review scientifically based knowledge on this topic. DESIGN: A systematic scoping review of research into the effect that physical environment in nursing homes has on residents' health. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Search for relevant English-language articles in PubMed and the Cochrane database before April 15, 2022. Article selection and data extraction were performed by 2 researchers. Studies were included if conducted on nursing home residents and if they examined associations between components of the physical environment and health outcomes. MEASURES: The review was performed in accordance with the PRISMA statement. RESULTS: Of 1347 articles retrieved, 59 met the inclusion criteria-40 observational, 1 survey, and 18 interventional studies, of which 5 were randomized controlled trials. Certain environmental features repeatedly show significant positive effect on resident's health, such as noise reduction, tuning of lighting, natural light, easy access to garden, dining environment, and resident-centered interior renovation. Nursing home size was not found to have a direct relationship to resident health and well-being, although it is related to more than only the physical environment (eg, social environment). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This review provides guidance in selective areas of the physical environment for the design of nursing homes, with potential benefits for the health and well-being of residents.
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Casas de Salud , HumanosRESUMEN
This study (This research is funded by Teranga Software and the ANRT CIFRE Grant no2019/1519 for CC.) proposes the use of Bayesian Networks for the prediction of unfavorable health events, and more especially pressure ulcers, in nursing homes. From a database of electronic medical records, we learn an explainable and relevant classifier, which performs better than the scores currently used in nursing homes.
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Casas de Salud , Úlcera por Presión , Teorema de Bayes , Manejo de Datos , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , HumanosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: It is not known if widespread vaccination can prevent the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in subpopulations at high risk, like older adults in nursing homes (NH). OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to know if coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks can occur in NH with high vaccination coverage among its residents. METHODS: We identified, using national professional networks, NH that suffered COVID-19 outbreaks despite having completed a vaccination campaign, and asked them to send data, using predefined collecting forms, on the number of residents exposed, their vaccination status and the number, characteristics, and evolution of patients infected. The main outcome was to identify outbreaks occurring in NH with high vaccine coverage. Secondary outcomes were residents' risk of being infected, developing severe disease, or dying from COVID-19 during the outbreak. SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by a positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. All residents were serially tested whenever cases appeared in a facility. Unadjusted secondary attack rates, relative risks, and vaccine effectiveness during the outbreak were estimated. RESULTS: We identified 31 NH suffering an outbreak during March-April 2021, of which 27 sent data, cumulating 1,768 residents (mean age 88.4, 73.4% women, 78.2% fully vaccinated). BNT162b2 was the vaccine employed in all NH. There were 365 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Median secondary attack rates were 20.0% (IQR 4.4%-50.0%) among unvaccinated residents and 16.7% (IQR 9.5%-29.2%) among fully vaccinated ones. Severe cases developed in 42 of 80 (52.5%) unvaccinated patients, compared with 56 of 248 (22.6%) fully vaccinated ones (relative risks [RR] 4.17, 95% CI: 2.43-7.17). Twenty of the unvaccinated patients (25.0%) and 16 of fully vaccinated ones (6.5%) died from COVID-19 (RR 5.11, 95% CI: 2.49-10.5). Estimated vaccine effectiveness during the outbreak was 34.5% (95% CI: 18.5-47.3) for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection, 71.8% (58.8-80.7) for preventing severe disease, and 83.1% (67.8-91.1) for preventing death. CONCLUSIONS: Outbreaks of COVID-19, including severe cases and deaths, can still occur in NH despite full vaccination of a majority of residents. Vaccine remains highly effective, however, for preventing severe disease and death. Prevention and control measures for SARS-CoV-2 should be maintained in NH at periods of high incidence in the community.