Wilderness areas in a changing landscape: changes in land use, land cover, and climate.

Wilderness areas are not immune to changes in land use, land cover, and/or climate. Future changes will intensify the balancing act of maintaining ecological conditions and untrammeled character within wilderness areas. We assessed the quantitative and spatial changes in land use, land cover, and climate predicted to occur in and around wilderness areas by (1) quantifying projected changes in land use and land cover around wilderness areas; (2) evaluating if public lands surrounding wilderness areas can buffer future land-use change; (3) quantifying future climate conditions in and around wilderness areas; and (4) identifying wilderness areas expected to experience the most change in land use, land cover, and climate. We used projections of land use (four variables), land cover (five variables), and climate (nine variables) to assess changes for 707 wilderness areas in the contiguous United States by mid-21st century under two scenarios (medium-low and high). We ranked all wilderness areas relative to each other by summing and ranking decile values for each land use, land cover, and climate variable and calculating a multivariate metric of future change. All wilderness areas were projected to experience some level of change by mid-century. The greatest land-use changes were associated with increases in agriculture, clear cutting, and developed land, while the greatest land cover changes were observed for grassland, forest, and shrubland. In 51.6% and 73.8% of wilderness areas, core area of natural vegetation surrounding wilderness was projected to decrease for the medium-low and high scenarios, respectfully. Presence of public land did not mitigate the influence of land-use change around wilderness areas. Geographically, projected changes occurred throughout the contiguous U.S., with areas in the northeast and upper Midwest projected to have the greatest land-use and climate change and the southwestern U.S. projected to undergo the greatest land cover and climate change. Our results provide insights into potential future threats to wilderness areas and the challenges associated with wilderness stewardship and climate adaptation. Despite the high degree of protection and remoteness of wilderness areas, effective management and preservation of these lands must consider future changes in land use, land cover, and climate.

Modeling an aspirational connected network of protected areas across North America.

Connecting protected areas remains an important global conservation strategy in the face of ongoing and future threats to biodiversity. Amid our growing understanding of how species' distributions will respond to climate change, conservation scientists need to plan for connectivity conservation across entire continents. We modeled multiscale connectivity priorities based on the least human-modified lands between large protected areas of North America using least-cost and circuit theory approaches. We first identified priority corridors between large protected areas, then characterized the network's structure to unveil priority linkages most important for maintaining network- and regional-level connectivity. Agreement between least-cost corridors and current flow varied throughout North America, reflecting permeable landscape conditions and "pinch points" where potential ecological flows may concentrate between protected areas. Priority network-level linkages derived from each approach were similar throughout the continental network (e.g., Rocky Mountains and Canadian boreal), but critical linkages that bridged regional protected-area networks varied. We emphasize the importance of planning for connectivity at continental scales and demonstrate the utility of multiple methods when mapping connectivity priorities across large spatial extents with wide gradients in landscape conditions.

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed.

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity-ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously.

Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.

Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.

Negative density dependence mediates biodiversity-productivity relationships across scales.

Regional species diversity generally increases with primary productivity whereas local diversity-productivity relationships are highly variable. This scale-dependence of the biodiversity-productivity relationship highlights the importance of understanding the mechanisms that govern variation in species composition among local communities, which is known as ß-diversity. Hypotheses to explain changes in ß-diversity with productivity invoke multiple mechanisms operating at local and regional scales, but the relative importance of these mechanisms is unknown. Here we show that changes in the strength of local density-dependent interactions within and among tree species explain changes in ß-diversity across a subcontinental-productivity gradient. Stronger conspecific relative to heterospecific negative density dependence in more productive regions was associated with higher local diversity, weaker habitat partitioning (less species sorting), and homogenization of community composition among sites (lower ß-diversity). Regional processes associated with changes in species pools had limited effects on ß-diversity. Our study suggests that systematic shifts in the strength of local interactions within and among species might generally contribute to some of the most prominent but poorly understood gradients in global biodiversity.

Wild, connected, and diverse: building a more resilient system of protected areas.

Current systems of conservation reserves may be insufficient to sustain biodiversity in the face of climate change and habitat losses. Consequently, calls have been made to protect Earth's remaining wildlands and complete the system of protected areas by establishing conservation reserves that (1) better represent ecosystems, (2) increase connectivity to facilitate biota movement in response to stressors including climate change, and (3) promote species persistence within intact landscapes. Using geospatial data, we conducted an assessment for expanding protected areas within the contiguous United States to include the least human-modified wildlands, establish a connected network, and better represent ecosystem diversity and hotspots of biodiversity. Our composite map highlights areas of high value to achieve these goals in the western United States, where existing protected areas and lands with high ecological integrity are concentrated. We also identified important areas in the East rich in species and containing ecosystems that are poorly represented in the existing protected area system. Expanding protection to these priority areas is ultimately expected to create a more resilient system for protecting the nation's biological heritage. This expectation should be subject to rigorous testing prior to implementation, and regional monitoring will ensure areas and actions are adjusted over time.

Visions of Restoration in Fire-Adapted Forest Landscapes: Lessons from the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program.

Collaborative approaches to natural resource management are becoming increasingly common on public lands. Negotiating a shared vision for desired conditions is a fundamental task of collaboration and serves as a foundation for developing management objectives and monitoring strategies. We explore the complex socio-ecological processes involved in developing a shared vision for collaborative restoration of fire-adapted forest landscapes. To understand participant perspectives and experiences, we analyzed interviews with 86 respondents from six collaboratives in the western U.S., part of the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program established to encourage collaborative, science-based restoration on U.S. Forest Service lands. Although forest landscapes and group characteristics vary considerably, collaboratives faced common challenges to developing a shared vision for desired conditions. Three broad categories of challenges emerged: meeting multiple objectives, collaborative capacity and trust, and integrating ecological science and social values in decision-making. Collaborative groups also used common strategies to address these challenges, including some that addressed multiple challenges. These included use of issue-based recommendations, field visits, and landscape-level analysis; obtaining support from local agency leadership, engaging facilitators, and working in smaller groups (sub-groups); and science engagement. Increased understanding of the challenges to, and strategies for, developing a shared vision of desired conditions is critical if other collaboratives are to learn from these efforts.

Identifying Corridors among Large Protected Areas in the United States.

Conservation scientists emphasize the importance of maintaining a connected network of protected areas to prevent ecosystems and populations from becoming isolated, reduce the risk of extinction, and ultimately sustain biodiversity. Keeping protected areas connected in a network is increasingly recognized as a conservation priority in the current era of rapid climate change. Models that identify suitable linkages between core areas have been used to prioritize potentially important corridors for maintaining functional connectivity. Here, we identify the most "natural" (i.e., least human-modified) corridors between large protected areas in the contiguous Unites States. We aggregated results from multiple connectivity models to develop a composite map of corridors reflecting agreement of models run under different assumptions about how human modification of land may influence connectivity. To identify which land units are most important for sustaining structural connectivity, we used the composite map of corridors to evaluate connectivity priorities in two ways: (1) among land units outside of our pool of large core protected areas and (2) among units administratively protected as Inventoried Roadless (IRAs) or Wilderness Study Areas (WSAs). Corridor values varied substantially among classes of "unprotected" non-core land units, and land units of high connectivity value and priority represent diverse ownerships and existing levels of protections. We provide a ranking of IRAs and WSAs that should be prioritized for additional protection to maintain minimal human modification. Our results provide a coarse-scale assessment of connectivity priorities for maintaining a connected network of protected areas.

The beta-diversity of species interactions: Untangling the drivers of geographic variation in plant-pollinator diversity and function across scales.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Geographic patterns of biodiversity have long inspired interest in processes that shape the assembly, diversity, and dynamics of communities at different spatial scales. To study mechanisms of community assembly, ecologists often compare spatial variation in community composition (beta-diversity) across environmental and spatial gradients. These same patterns inspired evolutionary biologists to investigate how micro- and macro-evolutionary processes create gradients in biodiversity. Central to these perspectives are species interactions, which contribute to community assembly and geographic variation in evolutionary processes. However, studies of beta-diversity have predominantly focused on single trophic levels, resulting in gaps in our understanding of variation in species-interaction networks (interaction beta-diversity), especially at scales most relevant to evolutionary studies of geographic variation. METHODS: We outline two challenges and their consequences in scaling-up studies of interaction beta-diversity from local to biogeographic scales using plant-pollinator interactions as a model system in ecology, evolution, and conservation. KEY RESULTS: First, we highlight how variation in regional species pools may contribute to variation in interaction beta-diversity among biogeographic regions with dissimilar evolutionary history. Second, we highlight how pollinator behavior (host-switching) links ecological networks to geographic patterns of plant-pollinator interactions and evolutionary processes. Third, we outline key unanswered questions regarding the role of geographic variation in plant-pollinator interactions for conservation and ecosystem services (pollination) in changing environments. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the largest advances in the burgeoning field of interaction beta-diversity will come from studies that integrate frameworks in ecology, evolution, and conservation to understand the causes and consequences of interaction beta-diversity across scales.

Latent resilience in ponderosa pine forest: effects of resumed frequent fire.

Ecological systems often exhibit resilient states that are maintained through negative feedbacks. In ponderosa pine forests, fire historically represented the negative feedback mechanism that maintained ecosystem resilience; fire exclusion reduced that resilience, predisposing the transition to an alternative ecosystem state upon reintroduction of fire. We evaluated the effects of reintroduced frequent wildfire in unlogged, fire-excluded, ponderosa pine forest in the Bob Marshall Wilderness, Montana, USA. Initial reintroduction of fire in 2003 reduced tree density and consumed surface fuels, but also stimulated establishment of a dense cohort of lodgepole pine, maintaining a trajectory toward an alternative state. Resumption of a frequent fire regime by a second fire in 2011 restored a low-density forest dominated by large-diameter ponderosa pine by eliminating many regenerating lodgepole pines and by continuing to remove surface fuels and small-diameter lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir that established during the fire suppression era. Our data demonstrate that some unlogged, fire-excluded, ponderosa pine forests possess latent resilience to reintroduced fire. A passive model of simply allowing lightning-ignited fires to burn appears to be a viable approach to restoration of such forests.

Compositional stability and diversity of vascular plant communities following logging disturbance in Appalachian forests.

Human-caused changes in disturbance regimes and introductions of nonnative species have the potential to result in widespread, directional changes in forest community structure. The degree that plant community composition persists or changes following disturbances depends on the balance between local extirpation and colonization by new species, including nonnatives. In this study, we examined species losses and gains, and entry of native vs. exotic species to determine how oak forests in the Appalachian Mountains might shift in species composition following a gradient of pulse disturbances (timber harvesting). We asked (1) how compositional stability of the plant community (resistance and resilience) was influenced by disturbance intensity, (2) whether community responses were driven by extirpation or colonization of species, and (3) how disturbance intensity influenced total and functional group diversity, including the nonnative proportion of the flora through time. We collected data at three spatial scales and three times, including just before, one year post-disturbance, and 10 years post-disturbance. Resistance was estimated using community distance measures between pre- and one year post-disturbance, and resilience using community distance between pre- and 10-year post-disturbance conditions. The number of colonizing and extirpated species between sampling times was analyzed for all species combined and for six functional groups. Resistance and resilience decreased with increasing timber-harvesting disturbance; compositional stability was lower in the most disturbed plots, which was driven by colonization, but not extirpation, of species. Colonization of species also led to increases in diversity after disturbance that was typically maintained after 10 years following disturbance. Most of the community-level responses were driven by post-disturbance colonization of native forbs and graminoids. The nonnative proportion of plant species tended to increase following disturbance, especially at large spatial scales in the most disturbed treatments, but tended to decrease through time following disturbance due to canopy development. The results of this study are consistent with the theory that resources released by disturbance have strong influences on species colonization and community composition. The effects of management activities tested in this study, which span a gradient of timber-harvesting disturbance, shift species composition largely via an increase in species colonization and diversity.

Disturbance alters local-regional richness relationships in Appalachian forests.

Whether biological diversity within communities is limited by local interactions or regional species pools remains an important question in ecology. In this paper, we investigate how an experimentally applied tree-harvesting disturbance gradient influenced local-regional richness relationships. Plant species richness was measured at three spatial scales (2 ha = regional; 576 m2 and 1 m2 = local) on three occasions (one year pre-disturbance, one year post-disturbance, and 10 years post-disturbance) across five disturbance treatments (uncut control through clearcut) replicated throughout the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. We investigated whether species richness in 576-m2 plots and 1-m2 subplots depended on species richness in 2-ha experimental units and whether this relationship changed through time before and after canopy disturbance. We found that, before disturbance, the relationship between local and regional richness was weak or nonexistent. One year after disturbance local richness was a positive function of regional richness, because local sites were colonized from the regional species pool. Ten years after disturbance, the positive relationship persisted, but the slope had decreased by half. These results suggest that disturbance can set the stage for strong influences of regional species pools on local community assembly in temperate forests. However, as time since disturbance increases, local controls on community assembly decouple the relationships between regional and local diversity.

Diversity-invasibility across an experimental disturbance gradient in Appalachian Forests.

Research examining the relationship between community diversity and invasions by nonnative species has raised new questions about the theory and management of biological invasions. Ecological theory predicts, and small-scale experiments confirm, lower levels of nonnative species invasion into species-rich compared to species-poor communities, but observational studies across a wider range of scales often report positive relationships between native and nonnative species richness. This paradox has been attributed to the scale dependency of diversity-invasibility relationships and to differences between experimental and observational studies. Disturbance is widely recognized as an important factor determining invasibility of communities, but few studies have investigated the relative and interactive roles of diversity and disturbance on nonnative species invasion. Here, we report how the relationship between native and nonnative plant species richness responded to an experimentally applied disturbance gradient (from no disturbance up to clearcut) in oak-dominated forests. We consider whether results are consistent with various explanations of diversity-invasibility relationships including biotic resistance, resource availability, and the potential effects of scale (1 m2 to 2 ha). We found no correlation between native and nonnative species richness before disturbance except at the largest spatial scale, but a positive relationship after disturbance across scales and levels of disturbance. Post-disturbance richness of both native and nonnative species was positively correlated with disturbance intensity and with variability of residual basal area of trees. These results suggest that more nonnative plants may invade species-rich communities compared to species-poor communities following disturbance.

Response of an understory plant community to elevated [CO2 ] depends on differential responses of dominant invasive species and is mediated by soil water availability.

• Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are likely to have direct effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we describe effects of elevated concentrations of CO2 on an understory plant community in terms of production and community composition. • In 2001 and 2002 total and species-specific above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) were estimated by harvesting above-ground biomass within an understory community receiving ambient [CO2 ] and elevated [CO2 ] at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) facility. • During a wet year, community composition differed between plots receiving ambient [CO2 ] and elevated [CO2 ], but total ANPP did not differ. By contrast, during a drier year, community composition did not differ, but total ANPP was greater in elevated than ambient [CO2 ] plots. These patterns were driven by the response of two codominant species, Lonicera japonica and Microstegium vimineum, both considered invasive species in the south-eastern United States. The ANPP of L. japonica was consistently greater under elevated [CO2 ], whereas the response of M. vimineum to CO2 enrichment differed between years and mediated total community response. • These data suggest that community and species responses to a future, CO2 -enriched atmosphere may be mediated by other environmental factors and will depend on individual species responses.