Comparison of three mathematical models to estimate lactation performance in dairy cows.

Milk yield dynamics and production performance reflect how dairy cows cope with their environment. To optimize farm management, time-series of individual cow milk yield have been studied in the context of precision livestock farming, and many mathematical models have been proposed to translate raw data into useful information for the stakeholders of the dairy chain. To gain better insights on the topic, this study aimed at comparing 3 recent methods that allow to estimate individual cow potential lactation performance, using daily data recorded by the automatic milking systems of 14 dairy farms (7 Holstein, 7 Italian Simmental) from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy. An iterative Wood model (IW), a perturbed lactation model (PLM), and a quantile regression (QR) were compared in terms of estimated total unperturbed (i.e., expected) milk production and estimated total milk loss (relative to unperturbed yield). The IW and PLM can also be used to identify perturbations of the lactation curve and were thus compared in this regard. The outcome of this study may help a given end-user in choosing the most appropriate method according to their specific requirements. If there is a specific interest in the post-peak lactation phase, IW can be the best option. If one wants to accurately describe the perturbations of the lactation curve, PLM can be the most suitable method. If there is need for a fast and easy approach on a very large data set, QR can be the choice. Finally, as an example of application, PLM was used to analyze the effect of cow parity, calving season, and breed on their estimated lactation performance.

Lactation curve model with explicit representation of perturbations as a phenotyping tool for dairy livestock precision farming.

In the context of dairy farming, ruminant females often face challenges inducing perturbations that affect their performance and welfare. A key issue is how to assess the effect of perturbations and provide metrics to quantify how animals cope with their environment. Milk production dynamics are good candidates to address this issue: i) they are easily accessible, ii) overall dynamics throughout lactation process are well described and iii) perturbations are visible through milk losses. In this study, a perturbed lactation model (PLM) with explicit representation of perturbations was developed. The model combines two components: i) the unperturbed lactation model that describes a theoretical lactation curve, assumed to reflect female production potential and ii) the perturbation model that describes all the deviations from the unperturbed lactation model with four parameters: starting date, intensity and shape (collapse and recovery). To illustrate the use of the PLM as a phenotyping tool, it was fitted on a data set of 319 complete lactations from 181 individual dairy goats. A total of 2 354 perturbations were detected, with an average of 7.40 perturbations per lactation. Loss of milk production for the whole lactation due to perturbations varied between 2 and 19% of the milk production predicted by the unperturbed lactation model. The number of perturbations was not the major factor explaining the loss of milk production, suggesting that there are different types of animal response to challenges. By incorporating explicit representation of perturbations in a lactation model, it was possible to determine for each female the potential milk production, characteristics of each perturbation and milk losses induced by perturbations. Further, it was possible to compare animals and analyze individual variability. The indicators produced by the PLM are likely to be useful to move from raw data to decision support tools in dairy production.

Exploring simultaneous perturbation profiles in milk yield and body weight reveals a diversity of animal responses and new opportunities to identify resilience proxies.

Livestock husbandry aims to manage the environment in which animals are reared to enable them to express their production potential. However, animals are often confronted with perturbations that affect their performance. Evaluating effects of these perturbations on animal performance could provide metrics to quantify and understand how animals cope with their environment, and therefore to better manage them. Body weight (BW) and milk yield (MY) dynamics over lactation may be used for this purpose. The goal of this study was to estimate an unperturbed performance trajectory using a differential smoothing approach on both MY and BW time series, and then to identify the perturbations and extract their phenotypic features. Daily MY and BW records from 490 primiparous Holstein cows from 33 commercial French herds were used. From the fitting procedure, estimated unperturbed performance trajectories of BW and MY were clustered into 3 groups. After the fitting procedure, 1,754 deviations were detected in the MY time series and 964 were detected in the BW time series across all cows. Overall, 425 of these deviations were detected during the same period (±10 d) in both MY and BW time series, 76 of which started at the same time. Results suggest that combining various individual dynamic measures and revealing the relationship that exists between them could be of great value in obtaining reliable estimates of resilience components in large populations.