Seroprevalence of West Nile virus in horses in different Moroccan regions.

West Nile virus-associated disease is one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in the world. In Morocco, the first cases were reported in horses in 1996 and the disease re-emerged in 2003 and in 2010. The objective of this work was to study the epidemiological situation of WNV-associated infection in Morocco, by quantifying the seroprevalence of anti-WNV IgM and IgG antibodies in horses in different bioclimatic regions-zones of Morocco in 2011. During the months of May, June and July 2011, 840 serum samples were collected from horses in four regions characterized by different environmental and climatic features such as altitude, temperature and precipitation. These environmental-climatic regions are: the Atlantic plateaus of the Gharb and pre-Rif region, the North Atlasic plains and plateaus region, the Atlas Mountains and pre-Atlas region and the plains and plateaus of the Oriental region. All samples were tested for the anti-WNV IgG antibodies by ELISA and positive sera were confirmed by virus neutralization (VN). An anti-WNV antibody prevalence map was developed. A total of 261 samples (31%) were found positive by both techniques. The prevalence of the infection was higher in the Atlantic plateaus of the Gharb and pre-Rif region, in the northern part of the country. Available data concerning the previous WNV-associated disease outbreaks in Morocco and the preliminary results of this serological survey suggest that the Moroccan northwest is the region at highest risk for WNV circulation. In this region, the climate is more humid with higher rainfall than other regions and milder winter temperatures exist. In the same area, the presence of migratory bird settlements may affect the risk of virus introduction and amplification.

Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.

Analysis of climatic and environmental variables associated with the occurrence of West Nile virus in Morocco.

West Nile disease (WND) is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne infectious diseases in the World. In Morocco the first WND cases were reported in equines in 1996. After an apparent epidemiological silence, WND re-occurred in 2003 and in 2010, when the disease was reported in equines living in the central and north-western part of the country. Eco-climatic variables are known to influence the mosquito presence and abundance and, therefore, the probability of occurrence of mosquito-borne infections. The remote sensed values of Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and rainfall registered from 2001 to 2010 were evaluated for a possible association with the occurrence of WND cases in 2003 and in 2010. In the zones where WND cases occurred, NDVI values recorded in 2003 and 2010, from June to November, were significantly higher than those registered during the same months in the rest of the decade. Rainfall data showed higher peaks in 2003 and 2010, when the number of days with extreme rainfall was significantly higher during 1-2 months before the occurrence of WND cases. Temperature does not seem to play an important role in Moroccan epidemiological conditions.