Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy.

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

Mechanisms of synergistic suppression of ALK-positive lung cancer cell growth by the combination of ALK and SHP2 inhibitors.

Lung cancer is a major cause of cancer-related deaths. Alectinib is the first line of treatment for patients with ALK-positive lung cancer, but the survival rate beyond 2-3 years is low. Co-targeting secondary oncogenic drivers such as SHP2 is a potential strategy for improving drug efficacy. This is because SHP2 is expressed ubiquitously, but ALK expression is largely restricted to cancer cells. Thus, the combination of ALK and SHP2 inhibitors may provide a way to restrict synergistic cytotoxicity to cancer cells only, by reducing the dose of SHP2 inhibitors required for anticancer action and minimising SHP2-dependent systemic toxicity. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the combination of a SHP2 inhibitor (SHP099) with alectinib would synergistically suppress the growth of ALK-positive lung cancer cells. Our results demonstrated that the drug combination significantly and synergistically decreased cell viability at relatively low concentrations in ALK-positive H3122 and H2228 cells, due to G1 cell cycle arrest and increased apoptosis because of suppressed downstream RAS/MAPK signalling. The drug combination also induced the expression of mediators of the intrinsic apoptotic pathway, Bim and cleaved caspase-3, and modulated the expression of cell cycle mediators cyclin D1, cyclin B1, and phosphorylated CDK1.

Impact of osteoarthritis disease severity on treatment patterns and healthcare resource use: analysis of real-world data.

OBJECTIVE: To understand treatment patterns and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) related to osteoarthritis (OA) disease severity in patients in five European countries. METHOD: Data were drawn from the Adelphi OA Disease Specific Programme™ (2017-18). Physicians classified their patients as having mild, moderate, or severe OA, and provided details on their current prescribed therapy and HCRU, including healthcare professional (HCP) consultations, diagnostics and testing, and hospitalizations. Comparisons between disease severity groups were made using analysis of variance and chi-squared tests. RESULTS: The study included 489 physicians (primary care physicians, rheumatologists, orthopaedic surgeons) reporting on 3596 OA patients: 24% mild, 53% moderate, and 23% severe disease. Both physicians and patients reported decreasing satisfaction with treatment with greater disease severity, despite the number of classes of prescribed drugs and increased use of opioids, which were used in almost half of patients with severe OA. For patients whose treatment was not effective, physicians prescribed the same therapeutic options, which were cycled in subsequent treatment lines, with multiple treatment regimens being commonly used. Patients with greater symptom severity also had more physician consultations, while the numbers of tests/imaging, predominantly X-rays, conducted to diagnose or monitor OA increased significantly with disease severity. The type of HCP involvement in patient management also varied by OA severity. CONCLUSIONS: Across five European countries, the use of both non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments increases with greater disease severity. Those with more severe disease place a greater demand on healthcare resources, with HCP consultations, tests, and hospital visits increasing with severity.

Controlling the configuration space topology of mechanical structures.

Linkages are mechanical devices constructed from rigid bars and freely rotating joints studied both for their utility in engineering and as mathematical idealizations in a number of physical systems. Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in designing linkages in the physics community due to the concurrent developments of mechanical metamaterials, topological mechanics, and the discovery of anomalous rigidity in fiber networks and vertex models. These developments raise a natural question: to what extent can the motion of a linkage or mechanical structure be designed? Here, we describe a method to design the topology of the configuration space of a linkage by first identifying the manifold of critical points, then perturbing around such critical configurations. Unlike other methods, our methods are tractable and provide a simple visual toolkit for mechanism design. We demonstrate our procedure by designing a mechanism to gate the propagation of a soliton in a Kane-Lubensky chain of interconnected rotors.

Caustic of colors in Newton's prism.

A single ray of white light, incident on a glass prism, emerges as a family of diverging rays, parameterized by their colors. These originate from a virtual caustic (envelope of colored rays) inside the prism, rather than a focal point. The "caustic of colors" is a singularity different from the familiar colored caustics (incoherent superpositions of monochromatic ray/wave families that themselves possess caustics). Weak dispersion enables analytical approximations: completely describing the virtual caustic, and rendering to simulate its visual colors. The caustic region is very small; observing it with a beam narrow enough to resolve its colors would require a meter-sized prism. Observability depends on the third power of dispersion, so the caustic, though not its colors, might be detectable by extension outside the visual range.

Physician and patient perceptions of surgical procedures for osteoarthritis of the knee in the United States, Europe, and Japan: results of a real-world study.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis, with the knee being the joint most frequently affected, and symptomatic knee OA affecting around one quarter of the general population. For patients who do not respond to non-pharmacologic or pharmacologic treatment, surgery is a recommended option. The objectives of this study were to compare the willingness of patients with knee OA to undergo surgery, together with reasons for delaying surgery, and factors affecting successful outcomes. METHODS: A point-in-time survey was conducted in 729 primary care physicians, rheumatologists, orthopedic surgeons, and 2,316 patients with knee OA across three geographical regions: Japan, the United States (US), and Europe (EUR: France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom), in order to garner their perceptions of knee surgery. Regression models were used to identify factors that might affect patients' and physicians' perceptions of surgery, including severity of OA (mild/moderate/severe), number of affected joints, surgery status, and willingness to undergo or delay surgery. RESULTS: Baseline demographics were similar between US and EUR, although patients in Japan were more likely to be female, older, and only 7% in fulltime employment. We found that few patients with end-stage knee OA, across all regions, but particularly Japan, were willing to undergo surgery (Japan 17%, US 32%, EUR 38%), either through fear, or the lack of awareness of the risk/benefits. Moreover, surgeons are prepared to delay surgery in elderly or unwilling patients, due to their dissatisfaction with the outcome, and may defer surgery in younger patients due to the need for future revision. We also identified a disconnect between physicians, of whom over 80% consider improved functioning to be the most important outcome of surgery, and patients, who seek pain relief (Japan 60%, US 35%, EUR 14%). Since physicians across all regions considered pain reduction to be an indication of surgery success (Japan 27%, US 47%, EUR 43%), this may indicate a need for improved communication to patients on the potential benefits of surgery. CONCLUSION: Managing the expectations of patients undergoing surgery remains an important goal in the treatment of knee OA and may help guide physician choice.

The impact of a vaccine mandate and the COVID-19 pandemic on influenza vaccination uptake in Western Australian health care students.

Annual influenza vaccination of health care students and workers helps protect themselves and patients from influenza, which has a high disease burden during seasonal peaks in Australia. Health care students are an important cohort whose early attitudes and habits towards influenza vaccination may influence future behaviours. We explored the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours towards influenza vaccination of health care students in two universities from 2018 to 2020 using convergent mixed methodology. We also assessed the impact of two external events - the introduction of mandatory influenza vaccination for select students in 2019, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We found a significant increase in self-reported vaccination uptake between 2018 (73.5%) and 2020 (89.6%), with the mandate and COVID-19 pandemic being likely drivers of increased uptake. Vaccine mandates are effective but must be supported by easy accessibility, adequately addressing concerns around effectiveness and safety, and promotion of voluntary acceptance and trust.

Electronic prescribing systems as tools to improve patient care: a learning health systems approach to increase guideline concordant prescribing for venous thromboembolism prevention.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) causes significant mortality and morbidity in hospitalised patients. Risk factors for VTE are well known and there are validated risk assessment tools to support the use of prophylactic therapies. In England, reporting the percentage of patients with a completed VTE risk assessment is mandated, but this does not include whether that risk assessment resulted in appropriate prescribing. Full guideline compliance, defined as an assessment which led to an appropriate action-here prescribing prophylactic low molecular weight heparin where indicated, is rarely reported. Education, audit and feedback enhance guideline compliance but electronic prescribing systems (EPS) can mandate guideline-compliant actions. We hypothesised that a systems-based EPS intervention (prescribing rules which mandate approval or rejection of a proposed prescription of prophylactic low molecular weight heparin based on the mandated VTE assessment) would increase full VTE guideline compliance more than interventions which focused on targeting individual prescribers. METHODS: All admitted patients within University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust were included for analysis between 2011 and 2020. The proportion of patients who received a fully compliant risk assessment and action was assessed over time. Interventions included teaching sessions and face-to-face feedback based on measured performance (an approach targeting individual prescribers) and mandatory risk assessment and prescribing rules into an EPS (a systems approach). RESULTS: Data from all 235,005 admissions and all 5503 prescribers were included in the analysis. Risk assessments were completed in > 90-95% of all patients at all times, but full guideline compliance was lower (70% at the start of this study). Face-to-face feedback improved full VTE guideline compliance from 70 to 77% (p ≤ 0.001). Changes to the EPS to mandate assessment with prescribing rules increased full VTE compliance to 95% (p ≤ 0.001). Further amendments to the EPS system to reduce erroneous VTE assessments slightly reduced full compliance to 92% (p < 0.001), but this was then maintained including during changes to the low molecular weight heparin used for VTE prophylaxis. DISCUSSION: An EPS-systems approach was more effective in improving sustained guideline-compliant VTE prevention over time. Non-compliance remained at 8-5% despite this mandated system. Further research is needed to assess the potential reasons for this.

Female Multiple Orgasm: An Exploratory Internet-Based Survey.

Women's multiorgasmic capacity has long been mentioned in the human sexuality literature. However, due in part to the conceptual vagueness surrounding this phenomenon, few empirical studies have focused on this topic, and our scientific knowledge is currently limited. This exploratory research is mainly aimed at providing a much-needed assessment of the profiles of women reporting multiorgasmic experiences. For this study, 419 sexually diverse women ages 18 through 69 who identified as multiorgasmic completed an online survey assessing variables pertaining to sociodemographic background, context and characteristics of a recent/typical multiorgasmic experience, relationships between multiple orgasm and sexual/nonsexual aspects of life, and sexual and orgasmic history. Data reduction analyses using principal component analysis pointed out that 15 variables of interest were distributed across six components, accounting for a large proportion of the sample's variance. A k-means cluster analysis further revealed that four distinct groups of women could be parsed out. These four groups could be differentiated by three sets of variables-sexual motivation, sexual history, and multiple orgasm characteristics-suggesting that female multiple orgasm is not a unitary phenomenon. This research provides to date the most comprehensive picture of female multiple orgasm and helps refine our conceptual understanding.

Topological transitions in the configuration space of non-Euclidean origami.

Origami structures have been proposed as a means of creating three-dimensional structures from the micro- to the macroscale and as a means of fabricating mechanical metamaterials. The design of such structures requires a deep understanding of the kinematics of origami fold patterns. Here we study the configurations of non-Euclidean origami, folding structures with Gaussian curvature concentrated on the vertices, for arbitrary origami fold patterns. The kinematics of such structures depends crucially on the sign of the Gaussian curvature. As an application of our general results, we show that the configuration space of nonintersecting, oriented vertices with positive Gaussian curvature decomposes into disconnected subspaces; there is no pathway between them without tearing the origami. In contrast, the configuration space of negative Gaussian curvature vertices remains connected. This provides a new, and only partially explored, mechanism by which the mechanics and folding of an origami structure could be controlled.

QTL analysis of cooking time and quality traits in dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.).

KEY MESSAGE: Three robust QTL for dry bean cooking time shortened cooking time 11-26 min and co-localized with QTL for increased cooked seed protein concentration. Cooking time is a major factor associated with consumer preference of dry beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). The genetic control of cooking time was investigated with a quantitative trait loci (QTL) study on a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population developed from TZ-27 (slow cooking) and TZ-37 (fast cooking). The RIL population of 146 lines was grown on research farms over 2 years in Arusha and Morogoro, Tanzania. Arusha is an important mid-altitude bean-growing region, with moderate temperatures and reliable rainfall, whereas the low altitude and high temperatures in Morogoro make it unfavorable for bean production. The population exhibited large variation for cooking time with a range of 22-98 min. On average, beans grown in Arusha cooked 15 min faster than those grown in Morogoro. A linkage map developed with 1951 SNP markers was used for QTL analysis. Ten QTL were identified for cooking time, three of which were found in multiple environments. RILs with all three QTL (CT3.1, CT6.1, and CT11.2) cooked on average 11 min faster in Arusha and 26 min faster in Morogoro than RILs with none. Seed attributes were related to cooking time such that seeds with greater seed mass and less seed coat percentage cooked faster. Cooked seed protein concentration ranged from 17.8 to 30.8% across the years and locations. All three of the most robust cooking time QTL co-localized with QTL for protein concentration, and TZ-37 always contributed faster cooking time and increased protein concentration.

Electrical latency predicts the optimal left ventricular endocardial pacing site: results from a multicentre international registry.

Aims: The optimal site for biventricular endocardial (BIVENDO) pacing remains undefined. Acute haemodynamic response (AHR) is reproducible marker of left ventricular (LV) contractility, best expressed as the change in the maximum rate of LV pressure (LV-dp/dtmax), from a baseline state. We examined the relationship between factors known to impact LV contractility, whilst delivering BIVENDO pacing at a variety of LV endocardial (LVENDO) locations. Methods and results: We compiled a registry of acute LVENDO pacing studies from five international centres: Johns Hopkins-USA, Bordeaux-France, Eindhoven-The Netherlands, Oxford-United Kingdom, and Guys and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London-UK. In all, 104 patients incorporating 687 endocardial and 93 epicardial pacing locations were studied. Mean age was 66 ± 11 years, mean left ventricular ejection fraction 24.6 ± 7.7% and mean QRS duration of 163 ± 30 ms. In all, 50% were ischaemic [ischaemic cardiomyopathy (ICM)]. Scarred segments were associated with worse haemodynamics (dp/dtmax; 890 mmHg/s vs. 982 mmHg/s, P < 0.01). Delivering BiVENDO pacing in areas of electrical latency was associated with greater improvements in AHR (P < 0.01). Stimulating late activating tissue (LVLED >50%) achieved greater increases in AHR than non-late activating tissue (LVLED < 50%) (8.6 ± 9.6% vs. 16.1 ± 16.2%, P = 0.002). However, the LVENDO pacing location with the latest Q-LV, was associated with the optimal AHR in just 62% of cases. Conclusions: Identifying viable LVENDO tissue which displays late electrical activation is crucial to identifying the optimal BiVENDO pacing site. Stimulating late activating tissue (LVLED >50%) yields greater improvements in AHR however, the optimal location is frequently not the site of latest activation.

Time for change? A national audit on bereavement care in intensive care units.

INTRODUCTION: Bereaved ICU family members frequently experience anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, which have been associated with significantly impaired quality of life. Recognising that their needs extend beyond the support provided by their friends and family, the Intensive Care Society had published in 1998 recommendations around bereavement care. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present national audit was to compare bereavement services in England against the nine recommendations set out by the Intensive Care Society guidelines. METHODS: A telephone audit was carried out in all adult ICUs in England. RESULTS: A total of 144 NHS Trusts (179 ICUs) met the inclusion criteria and 113 responses were collected (78% of Trusts, 63% of individual ICUs). Although most ICUs provided administrative information (96% had an information booklet), training (53%), auditing (19%) and adequate facilities (27%) did not meet the recommended standards. CONCLUSION: Bereavement care is underdeveloped in English ICUs. This important but underreported topic should be prioritised in the critical care research agenda.

Short- and long-term behavioral analysis of social interaction, ultrasonic vocalizations and social motivation in a chronic phencyclidine model.

Phencyclidine (PCP) has been suggested to induce symptoms of schizophrenia. However, animal models using PCP administration have produced ambiguous results thus far. It seems that acute effects are similar to symptoms of schizophrenia, however, it is not clear if PCP can induce permanent behavioral changes that reflect schizophrenic-like symptoms. Therefore, we assessed the ability of chronic PCP administration (3mg/kg, 14 days) to induce short or long lasting behavioral changes in rats. Social behavior, including ultrasonic vocalizations and motivation for social contact were investigated at different time points, up to 29-36 days, after cessation of PCP treatment. During a social separation test, performed at 5 and 36 days, PCP treated rats spent less time near the divider that separates them from their familiar cage mate compared with saline (SAL) treated rats. Further, at short term, PCP was able to induce a decrease in social behavior. In contrast, at long-term, PCP treated animals spent more time in contact when exposed to an unfamiliar partner as compared to SAL treated rats. But, this difference was not observed when exposed to a familiar partner. We did not find any difference in ultrasonic vocalizations at all time points. The results of our study indicate that PCP is unable to induce overt long term deficits in social interaction behavior. Rather, it seems that PCP diminishes motivation for social contact. The long-term consequences of chronic PCP administration on social behavior in rodent models remain complex, and future studies addressing this are still needed.

Local Expansion of Donation After Circulatory Death Kidney Transplant Activity Improves Waitlisted Outcomes and Addresses Inequities of Access to Transplantation.

In the United Kingdom, donation after circulatory death (DCD) kidney transplant activity has increased rapidly, but marked regional variation persists. We report how increased DCD kidney transplant activity influenced waitlisted outcomes for a single center. Between 2002-2003 and 2011-2012, 430 (54%) DCD and 361 (46%) donation after brain death (DBD) kidney-only transplants were performed at the Cambridge Transplant Centre, with a higher proportion of DCD donors fulfilling expanded criteria status (41% DCD vs. 32% DBD; p = 0.01). Compared with U.K. outcomes, for which the proportion of DCD:DBD kidney transplants performed is lower (25%; p < 0.0001), listed patients at our center waited less time for transplantation (645 vs. 1045 days; p < 0.0001), and our center had higher transplantation rates and lower numbers of waiting list deaths. This was most apparent for older patients (aged >65 years; waiting time 730 vs. 1357 days nationally; p < 0.001), who received predominantly DCD kidneys from older donors (mean donor age 64 years), whereas younger recipients received equal proportions of living donor, DBD and DCD kidney transplants. Death-censored kidney graft survival was nevertheless comparable for younger and older recipients, although transplantation conferred a survival benefit from listing for only younger recipients. Local expansion in DCD kidney transplant activity improves survival outcomes for younger patients and addresses inequity of access to transplantation for older recipients.

Late asymptomatic atrial lead perforation, a fortuitous finding during lead extraction using thoracoscopic surveillance: a case report and review of the literature.

A 61-year-old male patient was referred for lead extraction of an infected two-chamber pacemaker system first implanted 18 years ago. A new atrial lead was implanted 9 years later because of loss of capture of the original lead. Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) that we use in high-risk cases showed extensive fibrous adhesion between the right atrium wall and the right lung. Dissection of the adhesion revealed the presence of an atrial lead perforated into the lung. After cutting off the lead tip, the residual lead was removed endovascularly from the subclavian site. A literature review of 25 reported cases of late atrial lead perforation was added to the findings in our case report.