Visual surveys provide baseline data on small vessel traffic and waterbirds in a coastal protected area.

The coastal waters of southern British Columbia, Canada, encompass habitat of international conservation significance to coastal and marine birds, including sizeable areas designated in the early 1900s as Migratory Bird Sanctuaries (MBS) to protect overwintering waterfowl from hunting near urban centres. Two of these, Shoal Harbour (SHMBS) and Victoria Harbour (VHMBS), have seen significant marine infrastructure development in recent decades and experience considerable vessel traffic. Vessel-related stressors are known to affect waterbirds, but traffic characteristics in coastal urban areas are poorly understood for the smaller vessels not tracked by Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). We conducted a pilot study using shore-based observers to develop small-vessel baselines for the winter months, when regional waterbird numbers are highest. During our surveys we recorded considerable inter-site variability in vessel traffic characteristics, with one site (SHMBS) a source of nearly twice as many vessel transits as the other (VHMBS). Most recorded vessels were small watercraft (mean length 26 ± 17', mode 18'), and vessels at the high-traffic site were both shorter and faster on average. One in six vessels were classified as 'noisy', of interest given that noise is an important component of vessel disturbance of waterbirds and other marine animals. Few vessels (7% of all recorded) were of the type required to carry AIS transponders, which highlights the monitoring gap created by using AIS-based approaches alone in nearshore waters, and allows for correction of AIS-derived vessel counts. Waterbird community composition also varied by locality, with one site dominated by gulls (Laridae), cormorants (Phalacrocoracidae), and seaducks (Tribe Mergini), and the other by gulls, cormorants, and alcids (Alcidae). Our results demonstrate that fine-scale local variability must be taken into account when managing for vessel traffic disturbance of waterbirds, particularly at sites of high human population density and increasing coastal development.

Modelling entanglement rates to estimate mortality of marine birds in British Columbia commercial salmon gillnet fisheries.

Incidental mortality of marine birds in fisheries is an international conservation concern, including in Canada where globally significant populations of vulnerable diving species overlap with coastal gillnet fisheries. In British Columbia (BC), commercial salmon gillnet fishing effort was historically very high (>200,000 days fished annually in the early 1950's), and although this fishery has declined, over 6,400 days were fished annually in the 2006-2016 decade. Observations of seabird bycatch within the commercial fishery, however, are limited in both scope (comprising <2% of cumulative effort 2001-2016) and in time (being available only from 1995 onwards and only for a small number of areas). Using onboard fishery observer data from commercial, test and experimental fisheries (1995-2016), we developed two models to estimate the number of marine birds captured per set in sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and chum (O. keta) salmon gillnet fisheries employing a Generalized Linear Mixed Modeling (GLMM) approach in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, with observer data post-stratified by fisheries management area and year. Using estimates of total commercial fishing effort (estimated number of sets, 2001-2016) we applied the models to extrapolate annual take for the main bird species (or groups) of interest. Multinomial probability estimates of species composition were calculated based upon a sample of 852 birds identified to species that were associated with sockeye or chum fisheries, enabling estimates (with CIs) of potential numbers of the mostly commonly observed species (common murres (Uria aalge), rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata), and marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus)) entangled annually in commercial sockeye and chum salmon gillnet fisheries throughout BC. Conservative estimates of annual losses to entanglement were greatest for common murres (2,846, 95% CI: 2,628-3,047), followed by rhinoceros auklets (641, CI: 549-770) and marbled murrelets (228 CI: 156-346). Populations of all three of these alcids species are currently in decline in BC and entanglement mortality is a conservation concern. Gillnet mortality has been identified as a longstanding threat to marbled murrelet populations, which are recognized as Threatened in the Canada and the United States of America (USA). In addition, 622 (CI: 458-827) birds from 12 other species were estimated to be entangled annually. We conclude that cumulative mortality from incidental take in salmon gillnet fisheries is one of the largest sources of human-induced mortality for marine birds in BC waters, a conservation concern impacting both breeders and visiting migrants.

Seasonal variability in vulnerability for Cassin's auklets (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) exposed to microplastic pollution in the Canadian Pacific region.

Marine plastic pollution is an emerging global conservation challenge, potentially impacting organisms at all trophic levels. However, currently it is unclear to what extent plastic pollution is impacting marine organisms at the population, species or multispecies level. In this study, we explore seasonal exposure (i.e., vulnerability) of Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) to plastic pollution with exposure models during boreal summer and winter seasons. Based on these models, we infer exposure at the population level for this species, in the Canadian Pacific region where approximately 75% of the global population of this species breeds. The models quantify plastic exposure by determining seasonal core foraging areas and plastic concentrations found in those same areas. Core foraging areas were determined using a Generalized Additive Model based on at-sea observation data (collected year round: 1990-2010) and 50% Home Range Kernels based on aerial telemetry data (May and June 1999-2001). Plastic concentrations within these core areas were interpolated based on seawater microplastic concentrations from the summer of 2012. We found that during the boreal summer, Cassin's Auklets were exposed to relatively low concentrations of plastics. During the winter, auklet distribution shifted towards the coast where plastic concentrations are considerably higher. Model derived seasonal variability in exposure was consistent with necropsy results from bird carcasses recovered during the winter of 2014, and from a multiyear study on chick provisioning during the summer. Local oceanography likely plays a role in determining seasonal shifts in both marine bird as well microplastic concentrations, and hence exposure. As well, individual sensitivity (i.e., dose-dependent effect) may vary with annual cycles. Currently, research is focusing on determining how sensitive individual birds are to microplastic concentrations, and our models will help translate sensitivity found at the individual level to potential impacts at population or species level.

Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.

Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as 'Threatened' by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996-2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend ('year effects'), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey.

Citizen Science Reveals an Extensive Shift in the Winter Distribution of Migratory Western Grebes.

Marine waterbirds have shown variable trends in abundance over the past four decades with some species displaying steep declines along the Pacific coast from British Columbia through California. One of the most dramatic changes has been that of western grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis) in the Salish Sea. This region was a former core of the species wintering distribution but they have become increasingly rare prompting calls for conservation action. A more thorough understanding of this situation requires the analysis of trends at broader geographic scales as well as a consideration of mechanisms that might have led to a change in abundance. We used hierarchical modeling with a Bayesian framework applied to 36 years of Audubon Christmas Bird Count data to assess continent-wide and regional population trends in western and Clark's grebes (A. clarkii) from 1975 to 2010. Our results show that the North American wintering population of Aechmophorus grebes decreased by ∼52% after 1975, but also that western grebes displayed strongly opposing regional patterns. Abundance decreased by about 95% over 36 years in the Salish Sea but increased by over 300% along coastal California. As a result, the mean centre of the species distribution shifted south by an estimated 895 km between 1980 and 2010. Mechanisms underlying this shift require further study but we hypothesize that it may be related to a change in the abundance and availability of their forage fish prey base. Since the mid-1980s, the Pacific sardine stock off the California coast increased from a few thousand metric tonnes to over two million. At the same time both the abundance and availability of Pacific herring declined in the Salish Sea. Studies are needed to examine this hypothesis further and additional consideration should be directed at other changes in the marine environment that may have contributed to a range shift.

Evolutionary and experimental change in egg volume, heterochrony of larval body and juvenile rudiment, and evolutionary reversibility in pluteus form.

Heterochronic developmental plasticity of the juvenile rudiment and larval body of sea urchin larvae occurs in response to supply of food. Evolutionary increase in egg size can also be associated with earlier development of the juvenile rudiment. We examined effects of egg volume of feeding larvae on this heterochrony and other changes in larval form. (1) Evolutionary and experimental enlargements of egg volume did not accelerate formation of the rudiment relative to the larval body. Development of the larval body and juvenile rudiment was compared for the echinoids Strongylocentrotus purpuratus (with an egg of 78-82 microm) and Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (with an egg of 150-160 microm diameter). Development of both larval body and rudiment were accelerated in S. droebachiensis relative to S. purpuratus but with greater acceleration of the larval body, so that the rudiment of S. droebachiensis was initiated at a later larval stage even though at an earlier age. Also, experimentally doubling the egg volume of S. purpuratus did not accelerate development of the juvenile rudiment relative to the larval body. (2) Both species exhibited similar plasticity in timing of rudiment development in response to food supplies. (3) Doubling egg volume of S. purpuratus produced a larval form more similar to that of S. droebachiensis. This result mirrors previous experiments in which larvae from half embryos of S. droebachiensis were more similar to larvae of S. purpuratus. Many of the effects of egg volume on larval form are similar against either species' genetic background and are thus evolutionarily reversible effects on larval form.

Tufted puffin reproduction reveals ocean climate variability.

Anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are associated with interannual and decadal variability as well as with long-term climate changes indicative of global warming. Such oscillations could precipitate changes in a variety of oceanic processes to affect marine species worldwide. As global temperatures continue to rise, it will be critically important to be able to predict the effects of such changes on species' abundance, distribution, and ecological relationships so as to identify vulnerable populations. Off the coast of British Columbia, warm SSTs have persisted through the last two decades. Based on 16 years of reproductive data collected between 1975 and 2002, we show that the extreme variation in reproductive performance exhibited by tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) was related to changes in SST both within and among seasons. Especially warm SSTs corresponded with drastically decreased growth rates and fledging success of puffin nestlings. Puffins may partially compensate for within-season changes associated with SST by adjusting their breeding phenology, yet our data also suggest that they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change at this site and may serve as a valuable indicator of biological change in the North Pacific. Further and prolonged increases in ocean temperature could make Triangle Island, which contains the largest tufted puffin colony in Canada, unsuitable as a breeding site for this species.