Airborne imagery does not preclude detectability issues in estimating bird colony size.

Aerial images obtained by drones are increasingly used for ecological research such as wildlife monitoring. Yet detectability issues resulting from animal activity or visibility are rarely considered, although these may lead to biased population size and trend estimates. In this study, we investigated detectability in a census of Malagasy pond heron Ardeola idae colonies on the island of Mayotte. We conducted repeated drone flights over breeding colonies in mangrove habitats during two breeding seasons. We then identified individuals and nests in the images and fitted closed capture-recapture models on nest-detection histories. We observed seasonal variation in the relative abundance of individuals, and intra-daily variation in the relative abundance of individuals-especially immature birds-affecting the availability of nests for detection. The detection probability of nests estimated by capture-recapture varied between 0.58 and 0.74 depending on flyover days and decreased 25% from early to late morning. A simulation showed that three flyovers are necessary to detect a 5-6% decline in colonies of 50 to 200 nests. These results indicate that the detectability of nests of forest-canopy breeding species from airborne imagery can vary over space and time; we recommend the use of capture-recapture methods to control for this bias.

A standardized protocol for assessing the performance of automatic detection systems used in onshore wind power plants to reduce avian mortality.

While wind power plants are an important contribution to the production of renewable energy to limit climate change, collision mortality from turbines is a danger for birds, including many protected species. To try to mitigate collision risks, automatic detection systems (ADSs) can be deployed on wind power plants; these work by detecting incoming birds using a detection/classification process and triggering a specific reaction (scaring off the bird or shutting down the turbine). Nonetheless, bird fatalities still occur at ADS-equipped wind power plants, which raises the question of the performance of these tools. To date, the lack of a transparent, peer-reviewed experimental process to compare the performance of types of ADS has meant there is no robust protocol to assess these systems. With the aim of filling this gap, we developed two standardized protocols that provide objective and unbiased assessments of the performance of different types of ADS, based on their probability of detecting/classifying birds at risk of collision. Both protocols rely on precise 3D tracking of wild birds by human observers using a laser rangefinder, and the comparison of these tracks with those detected and recorded by an ADS. The first protocol evaluates a system's general performance, generating comparable data for all types of ADS. In this protocol, detection/classification probability is estimated conditional on several abiotic and biotic environmental factors such as bird size, distance from the target, the flight angle and azimuth of the bird, as well as weather conditions. The second protocol aims to verify that the performance of an ADS installed on a given wind power plant complies with its regulatory requirements. In this protocol, detection/classification probability is specifically estimated for a given target species at a given regulatory detection distance. This protocol also estimates the proportion of time an ADS is functional on site over a year, and the proportion of reaction orders successfully operated by wind turbines. These protocols have been field-tested and made publicly available for use by government agencies and wind power plant operators.

Low achromatic contrast sensitivity in birds: a common attribute shared by many phylogenetic orders.

Vision is an important sensory modality in birds, which can outperform other vertebrates in some visual abilities. However, sensitivity to achromatic contrasts - the ability to discern luminance difference between two objects or an object and its background - has been shown to be lower in birds compared with other vertebrates. We conducted a comparative study to evaluate the achromatic contrast sensitivity of 32 bird species from 12 orders using the optocollic reflex technique. We then performed an analysis to test for potential variability in contrast sensitivity depending on the corneal diameter to the axial length ratio, a proxy of the retinal image brightness. To account for potential influences of evolutionary relatedness, we included phylogeny in our analyses. We found a low achromatic contrast sensitivity for all avian species studied compared with other vertebrates (except small mammals), with high variability between species. This variability is partly related to phylogeny but appears to be independent of image brightness.

A synthesis of recent tools and perspectives in migratory connectivity studies.

Migration movements connect breeding and non-breeding bird populations over the year. Such links, referred to as migratory connectivity, have important implications for migratory population dynamics as they dictate the consequences of localised events for the whole population network. This calls for concerted efforts to understand migration processes for large-scale conservation. Over the last 20 years, the toolbox to investigate connectivity patterns has expanded and studies now consider migratory connectivity over a broader range of species and contexts. Here, we summarise recent developments in analysing migratory connectivity, focusing on strategies and challenges to pooling various types of data to both optimise and broaden the scope of connectivity studies. We find that the different approaches used to investigate migratory connectivity still have complementary strengths and weaknesses, whether in terms of cost, spatial and temporal resolution, or challenges in obtaining large sample sizes or connectivity estimates. Certain recent developments offer particularly promising prospects: robust quantitative models for banding data, improved precision of geolocators and accessibility of telemetry tracking systems, and increasingly precise probabilistic assignments based on genomic markers or large-scale isoscapes. In parallel, studies have proposed various ways to combine the information of different datasets, from simply comparing the connectivity patterns they draw to formally integrating their analyses. Such data combinations have proven to be more accurate in estimating connectivity patterns, particularly for integrated approaches that offer promising flexibility. Given the diversity of available tools, future studies would benefit from a rigorous comparative evaluation of the different methodologies to guide data collection to complete migration atlases: where and when should data be collected during the migratory cycle to best describe connectivity patterns? Which data are most favourable to combine, and under what conditions? Are there methods for combining data that are better than others? Can combination methods be improved by adjusting the contribution of the various data in the models? How can we fully integrate connectivity with demographic and environmental data? Data integration shows strong potential to deepen our understanding of migratory connectivity as a dynamic ecological process, especially if the gaps can be bridged between connectivity, population and environmental models.

EolPop, a R-shiny tool for quantifying the demographic impact of species exposed to fatalities: Application to bird collisions with wind turbines.

Quantifying the demographic impact of anthropogenic fatalities on animal populations is a key component of wildlife conservation. However, such quantification remains rare in environmental impact assessments (EIA) of large-infrastructure projects, partly because of the complexity of implementing demographic models. Providing user-friendly demographic tools is thus an important step to fill this gap. We developed an application called EolPop to run demographic simulations and assess population-level impacts of fatalities. This tool, freely available online, is easy to use and requires minimal input data from the user. As an output, it provides an estimate, with associated uncertainty, of the relative deficit in population size at a given time horizon. Because this impact metric is relative to a baseline scenario without fatalities, it is robust to uncertainties. We showcase the tool using examples on two species that are affected by collisions with wind turbines: Lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni) and Eurasian skylark (Alauda arvensis). After 30 years, the kestrel's population is expected to suffer a deficit of ca. 48%. In contrast, the impact on skylarks, which are already declining in France, is estimated to be fairly low (ca. 7%). EolPop aims at providing a robust quantification of the relative impact of fatalities. This tool was originally built for windfarm EIA, with a focus on birds, but it can be used to assess the demographic consequences of any type of fatalities on any species.

Contrasted impacts of weather conditions in species sensitive to both survival and fecundity: A montane bird case study.

There is growing evidence that the Earth's climate is undergoing profound changes that are affecting biodiversity worldwide. This gives rise to the pressing need to develop robust predictions on how species will respond in order to inform conservation strategies and allow managers to adapt mitigation measures accordingly. While predictions have begun to emerge on how species at the extremes of the so-called slow-fast continuum might respond to climate change, empirical studies for species for which all demographic traits contribute relatively equally to population dynamics are lacking. Yet, climate change is expected to strongly affect them throughout their entire lifecycle. We built a 21-year integrated population model to characterize the population dynamics of the rock partridge (Alectoris graeca) in France, and tested the influence of nine weather covariates on demographic parameters. As predicted, both annual survival and breeding success were affected by weather covariates. Thick snow cover during winter was associated with low survival and small brood size the following breeding season. Brood size was higher with intermediate winter temperatures and snowmelt timing, positively correlated to breeding period temperature, but negatively correlated to temperature during the coldest fortnight and precipitation during the breeding period. Survival was positively correlated to winter temperature, but negatively to breeding period precipitation. Large-scale indices indicated that cold and wet winters were associated with small brood size the following breeding season but with high survival. Expected changes of weather conditions due to climate change are likely to impact demographic traits of the rock partridge both positively and negatively depending on the traits and on the affected weather variables. Future population dynamics will thus depend on the magnitude of these different impacts. Our study illustrates the difficulty to make strong predictions about how species with a population dynamic influenced by both survival and fecundity will respond to climate change.

Efficacy of created and restored nesting sites for the conservation of colonial Laridae in the South of France.

By rapidly modifying key habitat components, habitat restoration is at risk of producing attractive cues for animals without providing habitats of sufficient quality. As such, individual fitness components, such as reproduction, could be reduced and restored habitats could become ecological traps. This risk notably appears by using artificial constructions in restoration projects, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in a robust way. We investigated this by analyzing 154 islets that were created or restored to improve the conservation status of 7 colonial Laridae species in the South of France. From 2007 to 2016, we compared occupancy dynamics and breeding parameters of these species between the restored sites and 846 unmanaged nesting sites. We also explored species' preference for different nesting site characteristics and their respective effect on breeding parameters. Restored nesting sites were 2-9 times as attractive as unmanaged sites for all species except the Black-headed Gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). Colonization probability was up to 100 times higher in sites already used by other species the previous year and increased with distance to the shore until >0.2 when distance was over 250 m. Abandonment probability was 29-70% lower when breeding was successful the previous year in all species except the Sandwich Tern (Thalasseus sandvicensis). Productivity and breeding success probability were 2 times higher on managed sites. Distance from the shore was an important attractive characteristic of artificial nesting sites in all species. Other nesting site characteristics had species-specific effects on colonization, abandonment, and breeding success. Our results indicate that managed nesting sites are successful conservation tools for colonial Laridae in the Mediterranean and do not act as ecological traps. Our study showed that testing the ecological trap hypothesis is a robust way to evaluate the success of restoration projects of breeding habitats.

Eficiencia de los sitios de anidación creados y restaurados para la conservación de láridos coloniales en el sur de Francia Resumen Con la rápida modificación de los componentes clave de un hábitat, la restauración corre el riesgo de producir entradas atractivas para los animales sin proporcionar hábitats con la suficiente calidad. Como tal, los elementos individuales de la aptitud, como la reproducción, podrían ser reducidos y los hábitats restaurados podrían convertirse en trampas ecológicas. Aunque este riesgo aparece especialmente cuando se usan construcciones artificiales en los proyectos de restauración, son pocos los estudios que han evaluado su efectividad de manera firme. Investigamos lo anterior con el análisis de 154 islotes que fueron creados o restaurados para mejorar el estado de conservación de siete especies de láridos coloniales en el sur de Francia. Comparamos las dinámicas de ocupación y los parámetros de reproducción de estas especies entre 2007 y 2016 en los sitios restaurados y en 846 sitios de anidación no administrados. También exploramos la preferencia de las especies por diferentes características en los sitios de anidación y su respectivo efecto sobre los parámetros de reproducción. Los sitios de anidación restaurados fueron de 2 a 9 veces más atractivos para todas las especies, excepto la gaviota de cabeza negra (Croicocephalus ridibundus), que los sitios no administrados. La probabilidad de colonización fue hasta 100 veces mayor en los sitios usados por otras especies el año previo e incrementó con la distancia a la costa hasta >0.2, cuando la distancia fue mayor a los 250 metros. La probabilidad de abandono fue de 29 a 70% más baja para todas las especies, excepto el charrán de Sándwich (Thalasseus sandvicensis), cuando la reproducción fue exitosa el año anterior. La probabilidad de la productividad y el éxito de reproducción fueron dos veces mayores en los sitios administrados. La distancia a la costa fue una característica atractiva importante de los sitios artificiales de anidación para todas las especies. Otras características de los sitios de anidación tuvieron efectos específicos por especie sobre la colonización, el abandono y el éxito de la reproducción. Nuestros resultados indican que los sitios de anidación administrados son herramientas exitosas de conservación para los láridos coloniales en el Mediterráneo y no funcionan como trampas ecológicas. Nuestro estudio demuestra que analizar la hipótesis de la trampa ecológica es una manera sólida de evaluar el éxito de la restauración en los proyectos de hábitats para la reproducción.

Compensatory recruitment allows amphibian population persistence in anthropogenic habitats.

Habitat anthropization is a major driver of global biodiversity decline. Although most species are negatively affected, some benefit from anthropogenic habitat modifications by showing intriguing life-history responses. For instance, increased recruitment through higher allocation to reproduction or improved performance during early-life stages could compensate for reduced adult survival, corresponding to "compensatory recruitment". To date, evidence of compensatory recruitment in response to habitat modification is restricted to plants, limiting understanding of its importance as a response to global change. We used the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata), an amphibian occupying a broad range of natural and anthropogenic habitats, as a model species to test for and to quantify compensatory recruitment. Using an exceptional capture-recapture dataset composed of 21,714 individuals from 67 populations across Europe, we showed that adult survival was lower, lifespan was shorter, and actuarial senescence was higher in anthropogenic habitats, especially those affected by intense human activities. Increased recruitment in anthropogenic habitats fully offset reductions in adult survival, with the consequence that population growth rate in both habitat types was similar. Our findings indicate that compensatory recruitment allows toad populations to remain viable in human-dominated habitats and might facilitate the persistence of other animal populations in such environments.

Spatially structured freshwater fish population dynamics at the River Basin District scale: Implication for environmental management and fish conservation.

European Union environmental policy has created a unique regulatory framework to favour aquatic ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation across European countries. Identifying the spatial structure of freshwater fish population dynamics is crucial to define region-specific management and conservation planning. To implement evidence-driven management and conservation decisions at a regional scale we assessed spatial heterogeneity in common freshwater fish population dynamics in France with a focus on trends in River Basin Districts (RBDs). The abundance and biomass growth rates of 18 common European freshwater fish species were estimated with state-space models on 546 sites distributed across the 5 main RBDs sampled in France between 1990 and 2011. Anguilla anguilla, Rutilus rutilus, Salmo trutta fario and Esox spp. exhibited large scale decline in abundance and/or biomass in several RBDs. The other species showed spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates. The main declines were observed in the Adour-Garonne and Loire-Bretagne RBDs, where management and conservation measures are urgently needed to halt the erosion of freshwater fish populations. In each of the 5 investigated RBDs, our results highlight areas where most of the common species we studied exhibited negative population growth rates. Freshwater fish surveys provide the fundamental information necessary to inform the European environmental policies and local environmental management needed to restore freshwater biodiversity. The next steps are to identify the main drivers of freshwater biodiversity erosion in the areas where we demonstrated major declines and to define the most cost-effective restoration measures.

Can attraction to and competition for high-quality habitats shape breeding propensity?

In many animal species, sexually mature individuals may skip breeding opportunities despite a likely negative impact on fitness. In spatio-temporally heterogeneous environments, habitat selection theory predicts that individuals select habitats where fitness prospects are maximized. Individuals are attracted to high-quality habitat patches where they compete for high-quality breeding sites. Since failures in contests to secure a site may prevent individuals from breeding, we hypothesized that attraction to and competition for high-quality habitats could shape breeding propensity. Under this hypothesis, we predicted the two following associations between breeding propensity and two key population features. (1) When mean habitat quality in the population increases in multiple patches such that availability of high-quality sites increases across the population, the resulting decrease in competition should positively affect breeding propensity. (2) When the number of individuals increases in the population, the resulting increase in competitors should negatively affect breeding propensity (negative density dependence). Using long-term data from kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, we checked the prerequisite of prediction (1), that availability of high-quality sites is positively associated with current mean habitat quality in the population (represented by breeding success). We then applied integrated population modelling to quantify annual fluctuations in population mean breeding success, breeding propensity and number of individuals by breeding status (pre-breeders, breeders, skippers and immigrants), and tested our predictions. Our results showed that breeding propensity acts as an important driver of population growth. As expected, breeding propensity was positively associated with preceding mean habitat quality in the population, and negatively with the number of competitors. These relationships varied depending on breeding status, which likely reflects status dependence in competitive ability. These findings highlight the importance of competition for high-quality breeding sites in shaping breeding propensity. Thereby, we draw attention towards alternative and complementary explanations to more standard considerations regarding the energetic cost of reproduction, and point to possible side effects of habitat selection behaviours on individual life histories and population dynamics.

Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater.

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change.

Favoring recruitment as a conservation strategy to improve the resilience of long-lived reptile populations: Insights from a population viability analysis.

In long-lived species, although adult survival typically has the highest elasticity, temporal variations in less canalized demographic parameters are the main drivers of population dynamics. Targeting recruitment rates may thus be the most effective strategy to manage these species. We analyzed 1,136 capture-recapture histories collected over 9 years in an isolated population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, using a robust design Pradel model to estimate adult survival and recruitment rates. From an adult population size estimated at 928 in 2013, we found a yearly decline of 4% over the 8-year period. As expected under the canalization hypothesis for a long-lived species, adult survival was high and constant, with little possibility for improvement, whereas the recruitment rate varied over time and likely drove the observed population decline. We then used a prospective perturbation analysis to explore whether managing the species' immature cohorts would at least slow the population decline. The prospective perturbation analysis suggested that a significant and sustained conservation effort would be needed to achieve a recruitment rate high enough to slow the population decline. We posit that the high recruitment rate achieved in 2014-likely due to the maintenance in 2012 of the main nesting sites used by this population-would be sufficient to slow this population's decline if it was sustained each year. Based on the results of diverse pilot studies we conducted, we identified the most likely threats targeting the eggs and immature cohorts, stressing the need to improve reproductive success and survival of immature iguanas. The threats we identified are also involved in the decline of several reptile species, and species from other taxa such as ground-nesting birds. These findings on a little-studied taxon provide further evidence that focusing on the immature life stages of long-lived species can be key to their conservation.

Geographical variation in pace-of-life in a long-distance migratory bird: implications for population management.

Life-history theory predicts that animals should develop adaptive trade-offs between survival and reproduction to maximize their fitness. This results in a continuum of life-history strategies among species, ranging from slow to fast paces-of-life. The optimal pace-of-life has been shown to vary within environmental gradients, with a commonly observed pattern of a slow-to-fast continuum from the tropics to the poles. Within species, pace-of-life variability has however received much less attention. In this study, we investigated whether or not the pace-of-life of populations within a species follows the expected slow-fast continuum associated with latitude. We analysed the variability of life-history strategies among populations of the European roller Coracias garrulus, a long-distance migratory species, comparing breeding parameters and adult survival between populations across a latitudinal gradient. The findings showed a negative correlation between survival and clutch size in roller populations, with a slower pace-of-life in the northern populations and a faster pace-of-life in the southern populations: a reverse gradient to what might be expected from inter-specific studies. These results suggest that northern populations would benefit from measures enhancing adult survival probability, such as reduction in harvesting rates, while southern populations would respond better to actions favouring reproductive success, such as nesting site provisioning. This study highlights that life-history traits can vary substantially between populations of a single species with a large latitudinal breeding range, and pinpoint how knowledge about this variability may be key in anticipating different populations' responses to threats as well as to conservation strategies.

Determinants of habitat suitability models transferability across geographically disjunct populations: Insights from Vipera ursinii urs inii.

Transferability of habitat suitability models (HSMs), essential to accurately predict outside calibration conditions, has been seldom investigated at intraspecific level. We targeted Vipera ursinii ursinii, a meadow viper from southeastern France and central Italy, to assess determinants of transferability among geographically disjunct populations. We fitted HSMs upon occurrences of the Italian and French populations separately, as well as on the combined occurrence dataset. Internal transferability of HSMs, on spatially independent test data drawn from the calibration region, and their external transferability on the geographically disjunct populations were evaluated according to (a) use of full or spatially rarefied presence datasets; (b) ecology-driven or statistics-driven filtering of predictors; (c) modeling algorithm, testing generalized additive models and gradient boosting models; and (d) multivariate environmental novelty within test data. Niche overlap between French and Italian populations was also tested. Niche overlap was low, but niche divergence between the two populations' clusters was not corroborated. Nonetheless, wider niche breadth and heterogeneity of background environmental conditions characterizing the French populations led to low intercluster transferability. Although models fitted on the combined datasets did not attain consistently higher internal transferability than those separately fitted for the French and Italian populations, ensemble projection from the HSMs fitted on the joint occurrences produced more consistent suitability predictions across the full range of V. u. ursinii. Spatial thinning of occurrences ameliorated internal transferability but did not affect external transferability. The two approaches to predictors filtering did not differ in transferability of the respective HSMs but led to discrepant estimated environment-occurrence relationships and spatial predictions, while the two algorithms attained different relative rankings depending on the considered prediction task. Multivariate novelty of projection sites was negatively correlated to both internal transferability and external transferability. Our findings clarify issues researchers should keep in mind when using HSMs to get predictions across geographically disjunct populations.

Foraging niche shift maintains breeding parameters of a colonial waterbird during range expansion.

Relating the effects of foraging niche variation to reproductive dynamics is critical to understand species response to environmental change. We examined foraging niche variations of the slender-billed gull (Chroicocephalus genei), a nomadic colonial waterbird species during its range expansion along the French Mediterranean coast over a 16-year period (1998-2013). We investigated whether range expansion was associated with a change in chick diet, breeding success, and chicks body condition. We also examined whether breeding success and chicks body condition were explained by diet and colonial characteristics (number of pairs, laying phenology, habitat, and locality). Diet was characterized using dual-stable isotopic proxies (δ 13C and δ 15N) of feather keratin from 331 individuals subsampled from a total of 4,154 chicks ringed and measured at 18 different colonies. δ 13C decreased and δ 15N increased significantly during range expansion suggesting that chicks were fed from preys of increasing trophic level found in the less salty habitat colonized by the end of the study period. Niche shift occurred without significant change of niche width which did not vary among periods, habitats, or localities either. Breeding success and chick body condition showed no consistent trends over years. Breeding success tended to increase with decreasing δ 13C at the colony level while there was no relationship between stable isotope signatures and chick body condition. Overall, our results suggest that even if range expansion is associated with foraging niche shift toward the colonization of less salty and more brackish habitats, the shift had marginal effect on the breeding parameters of the Slender-billed gull. Niche width appears as an asset of this species, which likely explains its ability to rapidly colonize new locations.

Drivers of amphibian population dynamics and asynchrony at local and regional scales.

Identifying the drivers of population fluctuations in spatially distinct populations remains a significant challenge for ecologists. Whereas regional climatic factors may generate population synchrony (i.e. the Moran effect), local factors including the level of density dependence may reduce the level of synchrony. Although divergences in the scaling of population synchrony and spatial environmental variation have been observed, the regulatory factors that underlie such mismatches are poorly understood. Few previous studies have investigated how density-dependent processes and population-specific responses to weather variation influence spatial synchrony at both local and regional scales. We addressed this issue in a pond-breeding amphibian, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus. We used capture-recapture data collected through long-term surveys in five T. cristatus populations in Western Europe. In all populations-and subpopulations within metapopulations-population size, annual survival and recruitment fluctuated over time. Likewise, there was considerable variation in these demographic rates between populations and within metapopulations. These fluctuations and variations appear to be context-dependent and more related to site-specific characteristics than local or regional climatic drivers. We found a low level of demographic synchrony at both local and regional levels. Weather has weak and spatially variable effects on survival, recruitment and population growth rate. In contrast, density dependence was a common phenomenon (at least for population growth) in almost all populations and subpopulations. Our findings support the idea that the Moran effect is low in species where the population dynamics more closely depends on local factors (e.g. population density and habitat characteristics) than on large-scale environmental fluctuation (e.g. regional climatic variation). Such responses may have far-reaching consequences for the long-term viability of spatially structured populations and their ability to respond to large-scale climatic anomalies.

Increased microclimatic variation in artificial nests does not create ecological traps for a secondary cavity breeder, the European roller.

Artificial devices are increasingly used in conservation measures to mitigate the disappearance of natural habitats. However, few studies have demonstrated their benefits for the target species, and they may pose a risk of creating ecological traps. This occurs when lower individual fitness is found in artificial habitats that are more attractive than their natural equivalents. In this study, we tested the ecological trap hypothesis on a dense population of European rollers Coracias garrulus breeding in both natural cavities and nest boxes. Our initial prediction was that the more stressful microclimatic conditions of nest boxes would lead to reduced fitness of European rollers, thus creating an ecological trap. The results showed that nest boxes were preferred over natural cavities. Despite significantly more extreme microclimatic conditions in nest boxes, we found similar breeding parameters between artificial and natural nest types. Our results also suggest that European rollers selected the nest boxes which best buffered the temperature, thus avoiding potential ecological traps. Overall our results led to the conclusion that nest boxes do not create ecological traps for European rollers in this study area. However, other species may be more sensitive to microclimatic variations or less able to avoid the least favorable nest boxes. These findings could help to inform the placement of nest boxes in order to reduce extreme temperatures and variation in humidity rates. Future studies could compare nest types for other fitness parameters, such as juvenile body condition or survival. We also recommend the ecological trap hypothesis as a useful framework to evaluate the outcomes of artificial devices used for conservation.

Optimization of capture-recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper.

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture-recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture-recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture-recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (-6% to -27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture-recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture-recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.

Optimización del Monitoreo de Captura y Recaptura de Especies Esquivas Ilustrado con un Saltamontes Amenazado Resumen La información sobre los tamaños poblacionales y las tendencias de las especies amenazadas es esencial para su conservación, pero la obtención de estimaciones confiables puede ser todo un reto. Diseñamos un método para mejorar la precisión de las estimaciones del tamaño poblacional obtenidos de estudios de captura y recaptura para especies con probabilidades bajas de captura y recaptura y una corta actividad estacional y lo ilustramos con los datos poblacionales de un saltamontes esquivo (Prionotropis rhodanica). Usamos los datos de cinco estudios de captura y recaptura para identificar los factores metodológicos y ambientales que afectan a la probabilidad de captura y recaptura y a los estimados de tamaños poblacionales. En una simulación, usamos el tamaño poblacional y las estimaciones de probabilidad de captura y recaptura obtenidos en estudios de campo para identificar el número mínimo de ocasiones de muestreo necesarias para obtener estimaciones imparciales y sólidos del tamaño poblacional. Con base en estos resultados, optimizamos el diseño de la captura y recaptura, la implementamos en dos estudios adicionales y comparamos su precisión con aquella de los estudios no optimizados. Además, simulamos escenarios con base en los umbrales de tamaño poblacional localizados en los criterios C y D de la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) para conocer si las estimaciones del tamaño poblacional para especies esquivas pueden informar certeramente las valoraciones de lista roja. La identificación de los parámetros que afectan las probabilidades de captura y recaptura (desde el momento de aparición de los primeros saltamontes adultos) y la optimización de los protocolos de campo con base en esta información redujeron el esfuerzo de estudio (−6% a −27% ocasiones de muestreo) y proporcionaron estimaciones más precisas del tamaño poblacional (coeficiente reducido de variación) en comparación con los estudios no optimizados. Las estimaciones del tamaño poblacional tomadas de los escenarios basados en los umbrales de la UICN fueron, en su mayoría, imparciales y sólidos (sólo la combinación de poblaciones muy pequeñas y un esfuerzo mínimo de estudio produjo estimaciones no confiables), lo que sugiere que la captura y recaptura puede considerarse como confiable para informar las valoraciones de lista roja. Aunque la captura y recaptura todavía es complicada y costosa cuando se aplica a especies esquivas, ésta puede ayudar a determinar los protocolos eficientes para incrementar la calidad de los datos y minimizar el esfuerzo de monitoreo.

Amphibian and reptile phenology: the end of the warming hiatus and the influence of the NAO in the North Mediterranean.

In the south of France, the so-called climate hiatus from 1998 to 2013 was associated with a late winter cooling which has affected the phenology of several reptiles and amphibian species, delaying their dates of first appearances in spring. This episode has been related to a period of frequently negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi). The recent increase of this index after this episode marks the end of the "hiatus" and provides an opportunity to verify the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the fauna of the North Mediterranean region. Most of the emergence dates of amphibians and reptiles in spring have rapidly advanced from 1983 to 1997 and then receded or stabilized from 1998 to 2010. They began to advance again since 2010. These phenological changes covary with the temperature of February-March in the study area, which is itself related to the variations of the NAO index. These changes confirm the influence of the NAO on the phenology of terrestrial organisms in northern Mediterranean where its influence is sometimes assumed to be attenuated.

Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird.

Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long-term studies with high sampling frequency. This study investigated the influence of environmental covariates on the demography of a corvid species, the alpine chough Pyrrhocorax graculus, in the highly seasonal environment of the Mont Blanc region. In two steps, we estimated: (1) the seasonal survival of categories of individuals based on their age, sex, etc., (2) the effect of environmental covariates on seasonal survival. We hypothesized that the cold season-and more specifically, the end of the cold season (spring)-would be a critical period for individuals, and we expected that weather and individual covariates would influence survival variation during critical periods. We found that while spring was a critical season for adult female survival, it was not for males. This is likely because females are dominated by males at feeding sites during snowy seasons (winter and spring), and additionally must invest energy in egg production. When conditions were not favorable, which seemed to happen when the cold season was warmer than usual, females probably reached their physiological limits. Surprisingly, adult survival was higher at the beginning of the cold season than in summer, which may result from adaptation to harsh weather in alpine and polar vertebrates. This hypothesis could be confirmed by testing it with larger sets of populations. This first seasonal analysis of individual survival over the full life cycle in a sedentary alpine bird shows that including seasonality in demographic investigations is crucial to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on cold ecosystems.