Association of Exposure to Civil Conflict With Maternal Resilience and Maternal and Child Health and Health System Performance in Afghanistan.

Importance: Current studies examining the effects of Afghanistan's conflict transition on the performance of health systems, health service delivery, and health outcomes are outdated and small in scale and do not span all essential reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health interventions. Objective: To evaluate associations of conflict severity with improvement of health system performance, use of health services, and child nutrition outcomes in Afghanistan during the 2003 to 2018 reconstruction period. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based survey study included a sequential cross-sectional analysis of individual-level panel data across 2 periods (2003-2010 and 2010-2018) and a difference-in-differences design. Surveys included the 2003 to 2004 and 2010 to 2011 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and the 2018 Afghanistan Health Survey. Afghanistan's 2013 National Nutrition Survey was used to assess nutritional outcomes, and the annual Balanced Scorecard data sets were used to evaluate health system performance. Participants included girls and women aged 12 to 49 years and children younger than 5 years who completed nationally representative household surveys. All analyses were conducted from January 1 through April 30, 2019. Exposures: Provinces were categorized as experiencing minimal-, moderate-, and severe-intensity conflict using battle-related death data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Main Outcomes and Measures: Health intervention coverage was examined using 10 standard indicators: contraceptive method (any or modern); antenatal care by a skilled health care professional; facility delivery; skilled birth attendance (SBA); bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination (BCG); diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus vaccination (DPT3) or DPT3 plus hepatitis B and poliomyelitis (penta); measles vaccination; care-seeking for acute respiratory infection; oral rehydration therapy for diarrhea; and the Composite Coverage Index. The health system performance was analyzed using the following standard Balanced Scorecard composite domains: client and community, human resources, physical capacity, quality of service provision, management systems, and overall mission. Child stunting, wasting, underweight, and co-occurrence of stunting and wasting were estimated using World Health Organization growth reference cutoffs. Results: Responses from 64 815 women (mean [SD] age, 31.0 [8.5] years) were analyzed. Provinces with minimal-intensity conflict had greater gains in contraceptive use (mean annual percentage point change [MAPC], 1.3% vs 0.5%; P < .001), SBA (MAPC, 2.7% vs 1.5%; P = .005), BCG vaccination (MAPC, 3.3% vs -0.5%; P = .002), measles vaccination (MAPC, 1.9% vs -1.0%; P = .01), and DPT3/penta vaccination (MAPC, 1.0% vs -2.0%; P < .001) compared with provinces with moderate- to severe-intensity conflict after controlling for confounders. Provinces with severe-intensity conflict fared significantly worse than those with minimal-intensity conflict in functioning infrastructure (MAPC, -1.6% [95% CI, -2.4% to -0.8%]) and the client background and physical assessment index (MAPC, -1.0% [95% CI, -0.8% to 2.7%]) after adjusting for confounders. Child wasting was significantly worse in districts with greater conflict severity (full adjusted ß for association between logarithm of battle-related deaths and wasting, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.01-0.66]; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: Associations between conflict and maternal and child health in Afghanistan differed by health care intervention and delivery domain, with several key indicators lagging behind in areas with higher-intensity conflict. These findings may be helpful for planning and prioritizing efforts to reach the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals in Afghanistan.

The effect of vitamin D supplementation on the glycemic control of pre-diabetic Qatari patients in a randomized control trial.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency is associated with indicators of pre-diabetes including, insulin resistance, ß-cell dysfunction and elevated plasma glucose with controversial findings from current trials. This study aims to investigate the long-term effect of vitamin D on glucose metabolism and insulin sensitivity in pre-diabetic and highly vitamin-deficient subjects. METHODS: One hundred thirty-two participants were randomized to 30,000 IU vitamin D weekly for 6 months. Participants underwent oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at 3-month intervals to determine the change in plasma glucose concentration at 2 h after 75 g OGTT (2hPCG). Secondary measurements included glycated hemoglobin, fasting plasma glucose and insulin, post-prandial insulin, indices of insulin sensitivity (HOMA-IR, Matsuda Index), ß-cell function (HOMA-ß, glucose and insulin area under the curve (AUC), disposition and insulinogenic indices), and lipid profile. RESULTS: A total of 57 (vitamin D) and 75 (placebo) subjects completed the study. Mean baseline serum 25(OH) D levels were 17.0 ng/ml and 14.9 ng/ml for placebo and vitamin D group, respectively. No significant differences were observed for 2hPC glucose or insulin sensitivity indices between groups. HOMA-ß significantly decreased in the vitamin D group, while area under curve for glucose and insulin showed a significant reduction in ß-cell function in both groups. Additionally, HOMA-ß was found to be significantly different between control and treatment group and significance persisted after adjusting for confounding factors. CONCLUSION: Vitamin D supplementation in a pre-diabetic and severely vitamin-deficient population had no effect on glucose tolerance or insulin sensitivity. The observed reduction in ß-cell function in both placebo and vitamin D groups could be attributed to factors other than supplementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02098980, 28/03/2014 (www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Reducing micronutrient deficiencies in Pakistani children: are subsidies on fortified complementary foods cost-effective?

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of price subsidies on fortified packaged complementary foods (FPCF) in reducing iodine deficiency, iron-deficiency anaemia and vitamin A deficiency in Pakistani children. DESIGN: The study proceeded in three steps: (i) we determined the current lifetime costs of the three micronutrient deficiencies with a health economic model; (ii) we assessed the price sensitivity of demand for FPCF with a market survey in two Pakistani districts; (iii) we combined the findings of the first two steps with the results of a systematic review on the effectiveness of FPCF in reducing micronutrient deficiencies. The cost-effectiveness was estimated by comparing the net social cost of price subsidies with the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted. SETTING: Districts of Faisalabad and Hyderabad in Pakistan. SUBJECTS: Households with 6-23-month-old children stratified by socio-economic strata. RESULTS: The lifetime social costs of iodine deficiency, iron-deficiency anaemia and vitamin A deficiency in 6-23-month-old children amounted to production losses of $US 209 million and 175 000 DALY. Poor households incurred the highest costs, yet even wealthier households suffered substantial losses. Wealthier households were more likely to buy FPCF. The net cost per DALY of the interventions ranged from a return per DALY averted of $US 783 to $US 65. Interventions targeted at poorer households were most cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Price subsidies on FPCF might be a cost-effective way to reduce the societal costs of micronutrient deficiencies in 6-23-month-old children in Pakistan. Interventions targeting poorer households are especially cost-effective.

Seroprevalence of anti-polio antibodies in children from polio high risk area of Afghanistan: A cross sectional survey 2017.

BACKGROUND: Afghanistan is one of the remaining wild-poliovirus (WPV) endemic countries. We conducted a seroprevalence survey of anti-poliovirus antibodies in Kandahar Province. METHODS: Children in two age groups (6-11 months and 36-48 months) visiting Mirwais hospital in Kandahar for minor ailments unrelated to polio were enrolled. After obtaining informed consent, we collected venous blood and conducted neutralization assay to detect poliovirus neutralizing antibodies. RESULTS: A total of 420 children were enrolled and 409/420 (97%) were analysed. Seroprevalence to poliovirus type 1 (PV1) was 97% and 100% in the younger and older age groups respectively; it was 71% and 91% for PV2; 93% and 98% for PV3. Age group (RR = 3.6, CI 95% = 2.2-5.6) and place of residence outside of Kandahar city (RR = 1.8, CI 95% = 1.2-2.6) were found to be significant risk factors for seronegativity. CONCLUSIONS: The polio eradication program in Kandahar achieved high serological protection, especially against PV1 and PV3. Lower PV2 seroprevalence in the younger age group is a result of a withdrawal of live type 2 vaccine in 2016 and is expected. Ability to reach all children with poliovirus vaccines is a pre-requisite for achieving poliovirus eradication.

Geospatial inequalities and determinants of nutritional status among women and children in Afghanistan: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is a pervasive condition in Afghanistan, and prevalence is among the highest in the world. We aimed to comprehensively assess district-level geographical disparities and determinants of nutritional status (stunting, wasting, or underweight) among women and children in Afghanistan. METHODS: The study used individualised data from the recent Afghanistan National Nutrition Survey 2013. Outcome variables were based on growth and weight anthropometry data, which we analysed linearly as Z scores and as dichotomous categories. We analysed data from a total of almost 14 000 index mother-child pairs using Bayesian spatial and generalised least squares regression models accounting for the complex survey design. FINDINGS: We noted that childhood stunting, underweight, and combined stunting and wasting were consistently highest in districts in Farah, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar, Paktia, and Badakhshan provinces. District prevalence ranged from 4% to 84% for childhood stunting and 5% to 66% for underweight. Child wasting exceeded 20% in central and high-conflict regions that bordered Pakistan including east, southeast, and south. Among mothers, dual burden of underweight and overweight or obesity existed in districts of north, northeast, central, and central highlands (prevalence of 15-20%). Linear growth and weight of children were independently associated with household wealth, maternal literacy, maternal anthropometry, child age, food security, geography, and improved hygiene and sanitation conditions. The mother's body-mass index was determined by many of the same factors, in addition to ethnolinguistic status and parity. Younger mothers (<20 years old) were more underweight and shorter than older mothers (aged 20-49 years). INTERPRETATION: Afghanistan's rapidly changing political, socioeconomic, and insecurity landscape has both direct and indirect implications on population nutrition. Novel evidence from our study can be used to understand these multifactorial determinants and to identify granular disparities for local level tracking, planning, and implementation of nutritional interventions. FUNDING: None.

Assessment of Inequalities in Coverage of Essential Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child, and Adolescent Health Interventions in Kenya.

Importance: Previous work has underscored subnational inequalities that could impede additional health gains in Kenya. Objective: To provide a comprehensive assessment of the burden, distribution, and change in inequalities in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health (RMNCAH) interventions in Kenya from 2003 to 2014. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study used data from the 2003, 2008, and 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys. The study included women of reproductive age (ages 15-49 years) and children younger than years, with national, regional, county, and subcounty level representation. Data analysis was conducted from April 2018 to November 2018. Exposures: Socioeconomic position that was derived from asset indices and presented as wealth quintiles. Urban and rural residence and regions of Kenya were also considered. Main Outcomes and Measures: Absolute and relative measures of inequality in coverage of RMNCAH interventions. Results: For this analysis, representative samples of 31 380 women of reproductive age and 29 743 children younger than 5 years from across Kenya were included. The RMNCAH interventions examined demonstrated pro-rich and bottom inequality patterns. The most inequitable interventions were skilled birth attendance, family planning needs satisfied, and 4 or more antenatal care visits, whereby the absolute difference in coverage between the wealthiest (quintile 5) and poorest quintiles (quintile 1) was 61.6% (95% CI, 60.1%-63.1%), 33.4% (95% CI, 31.9%-34.9%), and 31.0% (95% CI, 30.5%-31.6%), respectively. The most equitable intervention was early initiation of breastfeeding, with an absolute difference (quintile 5 minus quintile 1) of -7.9% (95% CI, -11.1% to -4.8%), although antenatal care (1 visit) and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis immunization (3 doses) demonstrated the best combination of high coverage and low inequalities. Our geospatial analysis revealed significant socioeconomic disparities in the northern and eastern regions of Kenya that have translated to suboptimal intervention coverage. A significant gap remains for rural, disadvantaged populations. Conclusions and Relevance: Coverage of RMNCAH interventions has improved over time, but wealth and geospatial inequalities in Kenya are persistent. Policy and programming efforts should place more emphasis on improving the accessibility of health facility-based interventions, which generally demonstrate poor coverage and high inequalities, and focus on integrated approaches to maternal health service delivery at the community level when access is poor. Scaling up of health services for the urban and, in particular, rural poor areas and those residing in Kenya's former north eastern province will contribute toward achievement of universal health coverage.

Societal Costs of Micronutrient Deficiencies in 6- to 59-month-old Children in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: In Pakistan, nearly half of children younger than 5 years are stunted, and 1 in 3 is underweight. Micronutrient deficiencies, a less visible form of undernutrition, are also endemic. They may lead to increased morbidity and mortality as well as to impaired cognitive and physical development. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the lifetime costs of micronutrient deficiencies in Pakistani children aged between 6 and 59 months. METHODS: We develop a health economic model of the lifetime health and cost consequences of iodine, iron, vitamin A, and zinc deficiencies. We assess medical costs, production losses in terms of future incomes lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The estimation is based on large population surveys, information on the health consequences of micronutrient deficiencies extracted from randomized trials, and a variety of other sources. RESULTS: Total societal costs amount to US$46 million in medical costs, US$3,222 million in production losses, and 3.4 million DALYs. Costs are dominated by the impaired cognitive development induced by iron-deficiency anemia in 6- to 23-month-old children and the mortality caused by vitamin A deficiency. Costs are substantially higher in poorer households. CONCLUSIONS: Societal costs amounted to 1.44% of gross domestic product and 4.45% of DALYs in Pakistan in 2013. These costs hinder the country's development. They could be eliminated by improved nutrition of 6- to 59-month-old children and public health measures. Our results may contribute to the design of cost-effective interventions aiming to reduce micronutrient deficiencies in early childhood and their lifetime consequences.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices by mothers in two rural districts of Sindh, Pakistan: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices during the first two years of life are important for the growth and development of a child. The aim of this study was to assess IYCF practices and its associated factors in two rural districts of Pakistan. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in two rural districts of Sindh province, Pakistan as part of a stunting prevention project between May and August 2014. A standard questionnaire on IYCF practices recommended by World Health Organization was used to collect information from 2013 mothers who had a child aged between 0 and 23 months. RESULTS: Only 49% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within one hour of birth. Thirty-seven percent of mothers exclusively breastfed their infants for six months. Seventy-percent mothers introduced complementary feeding at 6-8 months of age. Eighty-two percent of mothers continued breastfeeding for at least one year and 75% for at least two years of age. IYCF practices were not significantly different for boys and girls in the study area. Being an employed mother (AOR 2.14; 95% CI 1.02, 4.51) was positively associated with the early initiation of breastfeeding. Children who were born at a health facility (AOR 0.65; 95% CI 0.50, 0.84) and were aged six to eleven months (AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.54, 0.90) were less likely to be have an early initiation of breastfeeding. Mothers aged 25 to 29 years (AOR 1.83; 95% CI 1.05, 3.18), being literate (AOR 1.79; 95% CI 1.15, 2.78), and higher income (AOR 10.6; 95% CI 4.40, 25.30) were more likely to have an improved dietary diversity. Being an employed mother (AOR 2.18; 95% CI 1.77, 4.03) and higher income were more likely to have minimum acceptable diet (AOR 9.7; 95% CI 4.33, 21.71). CONCLUSION: IYCF practices were below the acceptable level and associated with maternal age, maternal illiteracy, unemployment, and poor household wealth status. Emphasis should be given to improve maternal literacy and reduction in poverty to improve IYCF practices.

Seroprevalence of Anti-polio Antibodies in Children From Polio High-risk Areas of Pakistan: A Cross-Sectional Survey 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is one of the 3 remaining wild poliovirus endemic countries. We collected sera from children to assess the prevalence of poliovirus antibodies in selected high-risk areas for poliovirus transmission. METHODS: Children in 2 age groups (6-11 and 36-48 months) were randomly selected between November 2015 and March 2016 in 6 areas of Pakistan (Sindh Province: Karachi and Kashmore; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province: Peshawar, Bannu and Nowshera; Punjab Province: Faisalabad). After obtaining informed consent, basic demographic and vaccination history data were collected, 1 peripheral venipuncture was obtained, and assays to detect poliovirus (PV)-neutralizing antibodies were performed. RESULTS: A total of 1301 children were enrolled and had peripheral blood drawn that analyzed. Study subjects were evenly distributed among survey sites and age groups. Anti-polio seroprevalence differed significantly among geographic areas (P < 0.001); in the 6-11 months group, it ranged between 89% and 98%, 58% and 95%, and 74% and 96% for PV serotypes 1, 2 and 3, respectively; in 36-48 months group, it ranged between 99% and 100%, 95% and 100%, and 92% and 100% for PV 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Having received inactivate poliovirus vaccine, malnourishment (stunting) and educational level of parents were found to be associated with presence of anti-polio antibodies. CONCLUSION: The polio eradication program achieved overall high serologic protection; however, immunity gaps in young children in the high polio risk areas remain. These gaps enable sustained circulation of wild poliovirus type 1, and pose risk for emergence of vaccine-derived polioviruses. Focusing on the lowest socioeconomic strata of society, where malnutrition is most prevalent, could accelerate poliovirus eradication.

Progress and priorities for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health in Kenya: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

BACKGROUND: Progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) in Kenya has been inconsistent over the past two decades, despite the global push to foster accountability, reduce child mortality, and improve maternal health in an equitable manner. Although several cross-sectional assessments have been done, a systematic analysis of RMNCH in Kenya was needed to better understand the push and pull factors that govern intervention coverage and influence mortality trends. As such, we aimed to determine coverage and impact of key RMNCH interventions between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: We did a comprehensive, systematic assessment of RMNCH in Kenya from 1990 to 2015, using data from nationally representative Demographic Health Surveys done between 1989 and 2014. For comparison, we used modelled mortality estimates from the UN Inter-Agency Groups for Child and Maternal Mortality Estimation. We estimated time trends for key RMNCH indicators, as defined by Countdown to 2015, at both the national and the subnational level, and used linear regression methods to understand the determinants of change in intervention coverage during the past decade. Finally, we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to model the effect of intervention scale-up by 2030. FINDINGS: After an increase in mortality between 1990 and 2003, there was a reversal in all mortality trends from 2003 onwards, although progress was not substantial enough for Kenya to achieve Millennium Development Goal targets 4 or 5. Between 1990 and 2015, maternal mortality declined at half the rate of under-5 mortality, and changes in neonatal mortality were even slower. National-level trends in intervention coverage have improved, although some geographical inequities remain, especially for counties comprising the northeastern, eastern, and northern Rift Valley regions. Disaggregation of intervention coverage by wealth quintile also revealed wide inequities for several health-systems-based interventions, such as skilled birth assistance. Multivariable analyses of predictors of change in family planning, skilled birth assistance, and full vaccination suggested that maternal literacy and family size are important drivers of positive change in key interventions across the continuum of care. LiST analyses clearly showed the importance of quality of care around birth for maternal and newborn survival. INTERPRETATION: Intensified and focused efforts are needed for Kenya to achieve the RMNCH targets for 2030. Kenya must build on its previous progress to further reduce mortality through the widespread implementation of key preventive and curative interventions, especially those pertaining to labour, delivery, and the first day of life. Deliberate targeting of the poor, least educated, and rural women, through the scale-up of community-level interventions, is needed to improve equity and accelerate progress. FUNDING: US Fund for UNICEF, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of provision of home-based curative health services by public sector health-care providers on neonatal survival: a community-based cluster-randomised trial in rural Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Although the effectiveness of community mobilisation and promotive care delivered by community health workers in reducing perinatal and neonatal mortality is well established, evidence in support of home-based neonatal resuscitation and infection management is mixed. We assessed the effectiveness of adding training in neonatal bag and mask resuscitation and oral antibiotic therapy for suspected neonatal infections to a basic preventive and promotive interventions package delivered by public sector community-based lady health workers (LHWs) in rural Pakistan. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised controlled trial in two subdistricts of Naushahro Feroze in rural Sindh, Pakistan, between April 15, 2009, and Dec 10, 2012. LHWs, trained in basic newborn resuscitation and in recognition and treatment (with oral amoxicillin) of suspected neonatal respiratory infections, were linked with traditional birth attendants and encouraged to attend home births. Control clusters received routine care through the existing national programme. The primary outcome was all-cause neonatal mortality. Independent data collection teams recorded data for all pregnancies and their outcomes, morbidity, mortality, and household practices related to maternal and newborn care. FINDINGS: Of the 27 randomised clusters with functional LHW programmes, 13 were allocated to the intervention group (n=242 749) and 14 to the control group (n=256 985). In the intervention group, LHWs did 80% of the planned community mobilisation sessions, but were able to attend only 1184 (14%) of 8425 deliveries and 4318 (25%) of 17 288 neonatal visits within 72 h of birth (p<0·0001 for both variables compared with the control group). The neonatal mortality rate was 42 deaths per 1000 livebirths in intervention clusters compared with 55 per 1000 in the control group (risk ratio 0·80, 95% CI 0·68-0·93; p=0·005). INTERPRETATION: The reduction in neonatal mortality in intervention clusters occurred against a background of improvements in domiciliary practices for maternal and newborn care. However, the poor reach of LHWs in accessing newborn infants at birth and in the early postnatal period underscores the limitations of tasking community health workers in public sector programmes working in similar circumstances with such complex interventions. Such community-based interventions in health systems should be accompanied by concerted efforts to improve quality of care in facilities and referral systems. FUNDING: Saving Newborn Lives, Save the Children USA.

Expenditure tracking and review of reproductive maternal, newborn and child health policy in Pakistan.

Since 2001 substantial resources have been allocated to the reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health sector (RMNCH) in Pakistan. Many new programmes have been started and coverage of some existing programmes has been extended to un-served and rural areas. Despite these efforts the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5 were not achieved (2000-15). Maternal Mortality Ratio was reduced to 170 per 100 000 live births (target 100) by 2013 at an annual reduction rate of 3.6% (1990-2013). Against the target of 46 per 1000 live births, the Under Five Mortality Rate was reduced to 81 per 1000 live births by 2015 at an annual reduction rate of 2.1% (1990-2015). We evaluated the comparative expenditures for the RMNCH sector and analysed impact of public expenditures on the use of the public facilities for the RMNCH services. Expenditure on RMNCH increased by 181% (2000-10), reaching PKR 628.79 billion (US$9.67 billion). The Share of the RMNCH expenditure in the total health expenditure increased from 16 to 21% (2005-10). The share of official development assistance for the RMNCH increased from 36 to 51% (2003-10). Equity was modestly achieved with a greater proportion of the poor using public facilities for the childhood diarrhoea (Concentration Index -0.06 in 2001-02 to - 0.11 in 2010-11) and reduction in the proportion of the rich using the public health facilities for institutional births (Concentration Index 0.30 in 2001-02 to 0.25 in 2010-11). Overall the RMNCH disease control programmes focused on vertical primary health approach and targeted the district health system in the un-served areas. Our findings confirm that diseconomies of scale, donor dependence and supply side perspective could only result in a modest progress towards achieving the MDGs. We call for urgent attention of the policy makers for the integration of the vertical and the routine primary health care and reliance on indigenous sustainable healthcare financing. We also recommend acknowledging economic perspective on health policy and health programmes.

Evaluation of the uptake and impact of neonatal vitamin A supplementation delivered through the Lady Health Worker programme on neonatal and infant morbidity and mortality in rural Pakistan: an effectiveness trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence for the benefits of vitamin A supplementation (VAS) among children 6 to 59 months of age, the feasibility of introduction and potential benefit of VAS in the neonatal period in public health programmes is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of early neonatal VAS (single dose of 50 000 international units within 48-72 hours after birth) delivered through the public sector Lady Health Worker (LHW) programme in rural Pakistan and to document its association with a reduction in mortality at 6 months of age. METHODS: A community-based, cluster randomised, placebo-controlled trial was undertaken in two districts of rural Pakistan. LHWs dispensed vitamin A/placebo in identical capsules to newborn infants within 48-72 hours of birth. Follow-up visits were undertaken at 1 week of age and every 4 weeks thereafter until 6 months of age. RESULTS: Of a total of 15 433 consecutive pregnancies among eligible women of reproductive age, 13 225 pregnancies were registered, 12 218 live births identified and 11 028 newborn infants reached by LHWs. Of these, 5380 (49%) received neonatal VAS and 5648 (51%) placebo. The LHWs successfully delivered the capsules to 79% of newborns within 72 hours of birth with no significant adverse effects. Although the proportion of days observed with symptoms of fever, diarrhoea or rapid breathing were lower with neonatal VAS, these differences were not statistically significant. Mortality rates in the two groups were comparable at 6 months of age. CONCLUSIONS: While our study demonstrated that neonatal VAS was safe and could be feasibly delivered by LHWs in Pakistan as part of their early postnatal visits, the overall lack of benefit on neonatal and 6-month morbidity and mortality in our population suggests the need for further evaluation of this intervention in populations at risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00674089.

Coverage and inequalities in maternal and child health interventions in Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND: Afghanistan has made considerable gains in improving maternal and child health and survival since 2001. However, socioeconomic and regional inequities may pose a threat to reaching universal coverage of health interventions and further health progress. We explored coverage and socioeconomic inequalities in key life-saving reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) interventions at the national level and by region in Afghanistan. We also assessed gains in child survival through scaling up effective community-based interventions across wealth groups. METHODS: Using data from the Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2010/11, we explored 11 interventions that spanned all stages of the continuum of care, including indicators of composite coverage. Asset-based wealth quintiles were constructed using standardised methods, and absolute inequalities were explored using wealth quintile (Q) gaps (Q5-Q1) and the slope index of inequality (SII), while relative inequalities were assessed with ratios (Q5/Q1) and the concentration index (CIX). The lives saved tool (LiST) modeling used to estimate neonatal and post-neonatal deaths averted from scaling up essential community-based interventions by 90 % coverage by 2025. Analyses considered the survey design characteristics and were conducted via STATA version 12.0 and SAS version 9.4. RESULTS: Our results underscore significant pro-rich socioeconomic absolute and relative inequalities, and mass population deprivation across most all RMNCH interventions studied. The most inequitable are antenatal care with a skilled attendant (ANCS), skilled birth attendance (SBA), and 4 or more antenatal care visits (ANC4) where the richest have between 3.0 and 5.6 times higher coverage relative to the poor, and Q5-Q1 gaps range from 32 % - 65 %. Treatment of sick children and breastfeeding interventions are the most equitably distributed. Across regions, inequalities were highest in the more urbanised East, West and Central regions of the country, while they were lowest in the South and Southeast. About 7700 newborns and 26,000 post-neonates could be saved by scaling up coverage of community outreach interventions to 90 %, with the most gains in the poorest quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: Afghanistan is a pervasively poor and conflict-prone nation that has only recently experienced a decade of relative stability. Though donor investments during this period have been plentiful and have contributed to rebuilding of health infrastructure in the country, glaring inequities remain. A resolution to scaling up health coverage in insecure and isolated regions, and improving accessibility for the poorest and marginalised populations, should be at the forefront of national policy and programming efforts.

Effect of booster doses of poliovirus vaccine in previously vaccinated children, Clinical Trial Results 2013.

BACKGROUND: Considering the current polio situation Pakistan needs vaccine combinations to reach maximum population level immunity. The trial assessed whether inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) can be used to rapidly boost immunity among children in Pakistan. METHODS: A five-arm randomized clinical trial was conducted among children (6-24months, 5-6years and 10-11years). Children were randomized in four intervention arms as per the vaccines they received (bOPV, IPV, bOPV+vitamin A, and bOPV+IPV) and a control arm which did not receive any vaccine. Baseline seroprevalence of poliovirus antibodies and serological immune response 28days after intervention were assessed. RESULTS: The baseline seroprevalence was high for all serotypes and the three age groups [PV1: 97%, 100%, 96%, PV2: 86%, 100%, 99%, PV3: 83%, 95%, 87% for the three age groups respectively]. There was significantly higher rate of immune response observed in the study arms which included IPV (95-99%) compared with bOPV only arms (11-43%), [p<0.001]; Vitamin A was not associated with improved immune response. Immune response rates in the IPV only arm and IPV+bOPV arm were similar [p>0.5]. CONCLUSION: IPV has shown the ability to efficiently close existing immunity gaps in a vulnerable population of children in rural Pakistan.

Prevalence and Predictors of Iron Deficiency Anemia in Children under Five Years of Age in Pakistan, A Secondary Analysis of National Nutrition Survey Data 2011-2012.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency Anemia (IDA) in children is a recognized public health problem that impacts adversely on child morbidity, mortality and impairs cognitive development. In Pakistan information on the true prevalence and predictors of IDA is limited. This study sought to investigate IDA in children under five years of age using data from a nationally representative stratified cross-sectional survey. METHODS: Secondary analysis was performed on the National Nutrition Survey in Pakistan 2011-2012. We used a pre-structured instrument to collect socio demographic and nutritional data on mothers and children. We also collected Anthropometric measurements and blood samples for micronutrient deficiencies. IDA was defined as having both haemoglobin levels of <110 g/L and ferritin levels of < 12 µg/L. Data analysis was performed by applying univariate and multivariate techniques using logistic regression through SPSS. FINDINGS: A total of 7138 children aged between 6-59 months were included in the analysis. The prevalence of IDA was 33.2%. In multivariate regression analysis adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were calculated. Age < 24 months (AOR 1.40, 95% CI 1.18-1.55 p <0.05), stunting (AOR 1.42 CI 1.23-1.63 p<0.05), presence of clinical anemia (AOR 5.69 CI 4.93-6.56 p<0.05), having a mother with IDA (AOR 1.72 CI 1.47-2.01 p<0.05) and household food insecurity (AOR 1.20 CI 1.10-1.40 P<0.05) were associated with IDA. Living in a rural area (AOR 0.77 CI 0.65-0.90 p<0.05) and being a female child (AOR 0.87 CI 0.76-0.98 p<0.05) were associated with reduced odds of IDA. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of IDA amongst Pakistani children represents a moderate burden that disproportionately affects the youngest, growth retarded children, affected children are more likely to have mothers with IDA and live in areas where food security is lacking. National efforts to alleviate the burden of IDA should involve both short term vertical programs such as iron supplementation and long term horizontal programs including wheat flour fortification.

Achieving maternal and child health gains in Afghanistan: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

BACKGROUND: After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Afghanistan experienced a tumultuous period of democracy overshadowed by conflict, widespread insurgency, and an inflow of development assistance. Although there have been several cross-sectional assessments of health gains over the last decade, there has been no systematic analysis of progress and factors influencing maternal and child health in Afghanistan. METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive, systematic assessment of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health in Afghanistan over the last decade. Given the paucity of high-quality data before 2001, we relied mainly on 11 nationally representative surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013. We estimated national and subnational time trends for key reproductive, maternal, and child health indicators, and used linear regression methods to determine predictors of change in health-care service use. All analyses were weighted for sampling and design effects. Additional information was collated and analysed about health system performance from third party surveys and about human resources from the Afghan Ministry of Public Health. FINDINGS: Between 2003 and 2015, Afghanistan experienced a 29% decline in mortality of children younger than 5 years. Although definite reductions in maternal mortality remain uncertain, concurrent improvements in essential maternal health interventions suggest parallel survival gains in mothers. In a little over a decade (2003-13 inclusive), coverage of several maternal care interventions increased-eg, for antenatal care (16% to 53%), skilled birth attendance (14% to 46%), and births in a health facility (13% to 39%). Childhood vaccination coverage rates for the basic vaccines from the Expanded Programme of Immunisation (eg, BCG, measles, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis, and three doses of polio) doubled over this period (about 40% to about 80%). Between 2005 and 2013, the number of deployed facility and community-based health-care professionals also increased, including for nurses (738 to 5766), midwives (211 to 3333), general physicians (403 to 5990), and community health workers (2682 to 28 837). Multivariable analysis of factors contributing to overall changes in skilled birth attendance and facility births suggests independent contributions of maternal literacy, deployment of community midwives, and proximity to a facility. INTERPRETATION: Despite conflict and poverty, Afghanistan has made reasonable progress in its reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health indicators over the last decade based on contributions of factors within and outside the health sector. However, equitable access to health care remains a challenge and present delivery models have high transactional costs, affecting sustainability. To maintain and further accelerate health and development gains, future strategies in Afghanistan will need to focus on investments in improving social determinants of health and targeted cost-effective interventions to address major causes of maternal and newborn mortality. FUNDING: US Fund for UNICEF under the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and from the Government of Canada, Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada. Additional direct and in-kind support was received from the UNICEF Country Office Afghanistan, the Centre for Global Child Health, the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, the Aga Khan University, and Mother and Child Care Trust (Pakistan).

Indigenous and tribal peoples' health (The Lancet-Lowitja Institute Global Collaboration): a population study.

BACKGROUND: International studies of the health of Indigenous and tribal peoples provide important public health insights. Reliable data are required for the development of policy and health services. Previous studies document poorer outcomes for Indigenous peoples compared with benchmark populations, but have been restricted in their coverage of countries or the range of health indicators. Our objective is to describe the health and social status of Indigenous and tribal peoples relative to benchmark populations from a sample of countries. METHODS: Collaborators with expertise in Indigenous health data systems were identified for each country. Data were obtained for population, life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, low and high birthweight, maternal mortality, nutritional status, educational attainment, and economic status. Data sources consisted of governmental data, data from non-governmental organisations such as UNICEF, and other research. Absolute and relative differences were calculated. FINDINGS: Our data (23 countries, 28 populations) provide evidence of poorer health and social outcomes for Indigenous peoples than for non-Indigenous populations. However, this is not uniformly the case, and the size of the rate difference varies. We document poorer outcomes for Indigenous populations for: life expectancy at birth for 16 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1 year in 15 populations; infant mortality rate for 18 of 19 populations with a rate difference greater than one per 1000 livebirths in 16 populations; maternal mortality in ten populations; low birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in three populations; high birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in one population; child malnutrition for ten of 16 populations with a difference greater than 10% in five populations; child obesity for eight of 12 populations with a difference greater than 5% in four populations; adult obesity for seven of 13 populations with a difference greater than 10% in four populations; educational attainment for 26 of 27 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 24 populations; and economic status for 15 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 14 populations. INTERPRETATION: We systematically collated data across a broader sample of countries and indicators than done in previous studies. Taking into account the UN Sustainable Development Goals, we recommend that national governments develop targeted policy responses to Indigenous health, improving access to health services, and Indigenous data within national surveillance systems. FUNDING: The Lowitja Institute.

Diagnostic accuracy of WHO verbal autopsy tool for ascertaining causes of neonatal deaths in the urban setting of Pakistan: a hospital-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, clinical certification of the cause of neonatal death is not commonly available in developing countries. Under such circumstances it is imperative to use available WHO verbal autopsy tool to ascertain causes of death for strategic health planning in countries where resources are limited and the burden of neonatal death is high. The study explores the diagnostic accuracy of WHO revised verbal autopsy tool for ascertaining the causes of neonatal deaths against reference standard diagnosis obtained from standardized clinical and supportive hospital data. METHODS: All neonatal deaths were recruited between August 2006 -February 2008 from two tertiary teaching hospitals in Province Sindh, Pakistan. The reference standard cause of death was established by two senior pediatricians within 2 days of occurrence of death using the International Cause of Death coding system. For verbal autopsy, trained female community health worker interviewed mother or care taker of the deceased within 2-6 weeks of death using a modified WHO verbal autopsy tool. Cause of death was assigned by 2 trained pediatricians. The performance was assessed in terms of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Out of 626 neonatal deaths, cause-specific mortality fractions for neonatal deaths were almost similar in both verbal autopsy and reference standard diagnosis. Sensitivity of verbal autopsy was more than 93% for diagnosing prematurity and 83.5% for birth asphyxia. However the verbal autopsy didn't have acceptable accuracy for diagnosing the congenital malformation 57%. The specificity for all five major causes of neonatal deaths was greater than 90%. CONCLUSION: The WHO revised verbal autopsy tool had reasonable validity in determining causes of neonatal deaths. The tool can be used in resource limited community-based settings where neonatal mortality rate is high and death certificates from hospitals are not available.