Association of multimorbidity with mortality after stroke stratified by age, severity, etiology, and prior disability.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is common in patients with stroke and is associated with increased medium- to long-term mortality, but its value for clinical decision-making and case-mix adjustment will depend on other factors, such as age, stroke severity, etiological subtype, prior disability, and vascular risk factors. AIMS: In the absence of previous studies, we related multimorbidity to long-term post-stroke mortality with stratification by these factors. METHODS: In patients ascertained in a population-based stroke incidence study (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2017), we related pre-stroke multimorbidity (weighted/unweighted Charlson comorbidity index (CCI)) to all-cause/vascular/non-vascular mortality (1/5/10 years) using regression models adjusted/stratified by age, sex, predicted early outcome (THRIVE score), stroke severity (NIH stroke scale (NIHSS)), etiology (Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST)), premorbid disability (modified Rankin Scale (mRS)), and non-CCI risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, smoking, deprivation, anxiety/depression). RESULTS: Among 2454 stroke patients (M/SD age: 74.1/13.9 years; 48.9% male; M/SD NIHSS: 5.7/7.0), 1375/56.0% had ⩾ 1 CCI comorbidity and 685/27.9% had ⩾ 2. After age/sex adjustment, multimorbidity (unweighted CCI ⩾ 2 vs 0) predicted (all ps < 0.001) mortality at 1 year (aHR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.38-1.78), 5 years (aHR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.53-1.96), and 10 years (aHR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.58-2.03). Although multimorbidity was independently associated with premorbid disability (mRS > 2: aOR = 2.76, 2.13-3.60) and non-CCI risk factors (hypertension: 1.56, 1.25-1.95; hyperlipidemia: 2.58, 2.03-3.28; atrial fibrillation: 2.31; 1.78-2.98; smoking: 1.37, 1.01-1.86), it predicted death after adjustment for all measured confounders (10-year-aHR = 1.56, 1.37-1.78, p < 0.001), driven mainly by non-vascular death (aHR = 1.89, 1.55-2.29). Predictive value for 10-year all-cause death was greatest in patients with lower expected early mortality: lower THRIVE score (pint < 0.001), age < 75 years (aHR = 2.27, 1.71-3.00), NIHSS < 5 (1.84, 1.53-2.21), and lacunar stroke (3.56, 2.14-5.91). Results were similar using the weighted CCI. CONCLUSION: Pre-stroke multimorbidity is highly prevalent and is an independent predictor of death after stroke, supporting its inclusion in case-mix adjustment models and in informing decision-making by patients, families, and carers. Prediction in younger patients and after minor stroke, particularly for non-vascular death, suggests potential clinical utility in targeting interventions that require survival for 5-10 years to achieve a favorable risk/benefit ratio. DATA ACCESS STATEMENT: Data requests will be considered by the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC) Study Director (P.M.R.-peter.rothwell@ndcn.ox.ac.uk).

Cerebral hemodynamic effects of early blood pressure lowering after TIA and stroke in patients with carotid stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Effects of early blood pressure (BP) lowering on cerebral perfusion in patients with moderate/severe occlusive carotid disease after transient ischemic attack (TIA) and non-disabling stroke are uncertain. AIMS: We aimed to evaluate the changes in transcranial Doppler (TCD) indices in patients undergoing blood pressure lowering soon after TIA/non-disabling stroke. METHODS: Consecutive eligible patients (1 November 2011 to 30 October 2018) attending a rapid-access clinic with TIA/non-disabling stroke underwent telemetric home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM) for 1 month and middle cerebral artery velocities measurements ipsilateral to carotid stenosis on TCD ultrasound in the acute setting and at 1 month. Hypertensive patients (HBPM ⩾ 135/85) underwent intensive BP-lowering guided by HBPM unless they had bilateral severe occlusive disease (⩾ 70%). Changes in BP and TCD parameters were compared in patients with extracranial moderate/severe carotid stenosis (between 50% and occlusion) versus those with no or mild (< 50%) stenosis. RESULTS: Of 764 patients with repeated TCD measures, 42 had moderate/severe extracranial carotid stenosis without bilateral severe occlusive disease. HBPM was reduced from baseline to 1 month in hypertensive patients both with versus without moderate/severe carotid stenosis (-12.44/15.99 vs -13.2/12.2 mmHg, respectively, p-difference = 0.82), and changes in TCD velocities (4.69/14.94 vs 2.69/13.86 cm/s, respectively, p-difference = 0.52 for peak systolic velocity and 0.33/7.06 vs 1.75/6.84 cm/s, p-difference = 0.34 for end-diastolic velocity) were also similar, with no evidence of greater hemodynamic compromise in patients with stenosis/occlusion. CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of worsening of TCD hemodynamic indices in patients with moderate/severe occlusive carotid disease treated with BP-lowering soon after TIA/non-disabling stroke, suggesting that antihypertensive treatment in this group of patients is safe in the acute setting of TIA clinics.

Age-specific cerebral haemodynamic effects of early blood pressure lowering after transient ischaemic attack and non-disabling stroke.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited knowledge of the effects of blood pressure (BP) lowering on cerebral haemodynamics after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and non-disabling stroke, particularly at older ages. We aimed to evaluate changes in transcranial Doppler (TCD) haemodynamic indices in patients undergoing early blood pressure lowering after TIA/non-disabling stroke, irrespective of age. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Among consecutive eligible patients attending a rapid-access clinic with suspected TIA/non-disabling stroke and no evidence of extra/intracranial stenosis, hypertensive ones underwent intensive BP-lowering guided by daily home telemetric blood pressure monitoring (HBPM). Clinic-based BP, HBPM, End-tidal CO2 and bilateral middle cerebral artery (MCA) velocity on TCD were compared in the acute setting versus one-month follow-up; changes were stratified by baseline hypertension (clinic-BP≥140/90) and by age (<65, 65-79 and ≥80). RESULTS: In 697 patients with repeated TCD measures, mean/SD baseline systolic-BP (145.0/21.3 mmHg) was reduced by an average of 11.3/19.9 mmHg (p < 0.0001) at one-month (133.7/17.4 mmHg), driven by patients hypertensive at baseline (systolic-BP change = -19.0/19.2 mmHg, p < 0.001; vs -0.5/15.4, p = 0.62 in normotensives). Compared with baseline, a significant change was observed at one-month only in mean/SD MCA end diastolic velocity (EDV) (0.77/7.26 cm/s, p = 0.005) and in resistance index (RI) (-0.005/0.051, p = 0.016), driven by hypertensive patients (mean/SD EDV change: 1.145/6.96 cm/s p = 0.001, RI change -0.007/0.06, p = 0.014). Findings were similar at all ages (EDV change - ptrend=0.357; RI change - ptrend=0.225), including 117 patients aged ≥80. EDV and RI changes were largest in 100 patients with clinic systolic-BP decrease ≥30 mmHg (mean/SD EDV change = 2.49/7.47 cm/s, p = 0.001; RI change -0.024/0.063, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of worsening of TCD haemodynamic indices associated with BP-lowering soon after TIA/non-disabling stroke, irrespective of age and degree of BP reduction. In fact, EDV increase and RI decrease observed after treatment of hypertensive patients suggest a decrease in distal vascular resistance.

Temporal trends in the accuracy of hospital diagnostic coding for identifying acute stroke: A population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Administrative hospital diagnostic coding data are increasingly being used in identifying incident and prevalent stroke cases, for outcome audit and for 'big data' research. Validity of administrative coding has varied in previous studies, but little is known about the temporal trends of coding accuracy, which could bias analyses. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using all incident and recurrent strokes in a population-based cohort (Oxford Vascular Study/OXVASC) with multiple sources of ascertainment as the reference, we determined the temporal trends in sensitivity and positive predictive value of hospital diagnostic codes for identifying acute stroke from 2002 to 2017. RESULTS: Of 1883 hospitalised strokes, 1341 (71.2%) were correctly identified by coding. Sensitivity of coding improved over time for all strokes (ptrend = 0.005) and for incident cases (ptrend = 0.002). Of 1995 apparent stroke admissions identified by International Classification of Disease-10 stroke codes (I60-I68), 1588 (79.6%) used the stroke-specific codes (I60-I61/I63-I64). Positive predictive value was higher with the use of specific codes (83.2% vs. 69.2% for all codes) and highest if combined with the first admission only (88.5%), particularly during more recent time periods (2014-2017 = 90.3%). Of 2254 OXVASC incident strokes, 833 (37.0%) were not hospitalised. Sensitivity of coding increased over time for non-disabling stroke (ptrend = 0.001), but not for disabling/fatal stroke (ptrend = 0.40). CONCLUSIONS: Although accuracy of hospital diagnostic coding for identifying acute strokes improved over the last 15 years, residual insensitivity supports linkage to other sources in large epidemiological studies. Moreover, differences in the time trends of coding sensitivity in relation to stroke severity might bias studies of trends in stroke outcome if only administrative coding is used.

Sensitivity of Administrative Coding in Identifying Inpatient Acute Strokes Complicating Procedures or Other Diseases in UK Hospitals.

Background Administrative hospital diagnostic coding data are increasingly used in "big data" research and to assess complication rates after surgery or acute medical conditions. Acute stroke is a common complication of several procedures/conditions, such as carotid interventions, but data are lacking on the sensitivity of administrative coding in identifying acute stroke during inpatient stay. Methods and Results Using all acute strokes ascertained in a population-based cohort (2002-2017) as the reference, we determined the sensitivity of hospital administrative diagnostic codes ( International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision; ICD-10) for identifying acute strokes that occurred during hospital admission for other reasons, stratified by coding strategies, study periods, and stroke severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Score

Effect of urgent treatment of transient ischaemic attack and minor stroke on early recurrent stroke (EXPRESS study): a prospective population-based sequential comparison.

BACKGROUND: The risk of recurrent stroke is up to 10% in the week after a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke. Modelling studies suggest that urgent use of existing preventive treatments could reduce the risk by 80-90%, but in the absence of evidence many health-care systems make little provision. Our aim was to determine the effect of more rapid treatment after TIA and minor stroke in patients who are not admitted direct to hospital. METHODS: We did a prospective before (phase 1: April 1, 2002, to Sept 30, 2004) versus after (phase 2: Oct 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007) study of the effect on process of care and outcome of more urgent assessment and immediate treatment in clinic, rather than subsequent initiation in primary care, in all patients with TIA or minor stroke not admitted direct to hospital. The study was nested within a rigorous population-based incidence study of all TIA and stroke (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC), such that case ascertainment, investigation, and follow-up were complete and identical in both periods. The primary outcome was the risk of stroke within 90 days of first seeking medical attention, with independent blinded (to study period) audit of all events. FINDINGS: Of the 1278 patients in OXVASC who presented with TIA or stroke (634 in phase 1 and 644 in phase 2), 607 were referred or presented direct to hospital, 620 were referred for outpatient assessment, and 51 were not referred to secondary care. 95% (n=591) of all outpatient referrals were to the study clinic. Baseline characteristics and delays in seeking medical attention were similar in both periods, but median delay to assessment in the study clinic fell from 3 (IQR 2-5) days in phase 1 to less than 1 (0-3) day in phase 2 (p<0.0001), and median delay to first prescription of treatment fell from 20 (8-53) days to 1 (0-3) day (p<0.0001). The 90-day risk of recurrent stroke in the patients referred to the study clinic was 10.3% (32/310 patients) in phase 1 and 2.1% (6/281 patients) in phase 2 (adjusted hazard ratio 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.49; p=0.0001); there was no significant change in risk in patients treated elsewhere. The reduction in risk was independent of age and sex, and early treatment did not increase the risk of intracerebral haemorrhage or other bleeding. INTERPRETATION: Early initiation of existing treatments after TIA or minor stroke was associated with an 80% reduction in the risk of early recurrent stroke. Further follow-up is required to determine long-term outcome, but these results have immediate implications for service provision and public education about TIA and minor stroke.