Assessing the vulnerability of marine life to climate change in the Pacific Islands region.

Our changing climate poses growing challenges for effective management of marine life, ocean ecosystems, and human communities. Which species are most vulnerable to climate change, and where should management focus efforts to reduce these risks? To address these questions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Climate Science Strategy called for vulnerability assessments in each of NOAA's ocean regions. The Pacific Islands Vulnerability Assessment (PIVA) project assessed the susceptibility of 83 marine species to the impacts of climate change projected to 2055. In a standard Rapid Vulnerability Assessment framework, this project applied expert knowledge, literature review, and climate projection models to synthesize the best available science towards answering these questions. Here we: (1) provide a relative climate vulnerability ranking across species; (2) identify key attributes and factors that drive vulnerability; and (3) identify critical data gaps in understanding climate change impacts to marine life. The invertebrate group was ranked most vulnerable and pelagic and coastal groups not associated with coral reefs were ranked least vulnerable. Sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, and oxygen concentration were the main exposure drivers of vulnerability. Early Life History Survival and Settlement Requirements was the most data deficient of the sensitivity attributes considered in the assessment. The sensitivity of many coral reef fishes ranged between Low and Moderate, which is likely underestimated given that reef species depend on a biogenic habitat that is extremely threatened by climate change. The standard assessment methodology originally developed in the Northeast US, did not capture the additional complexity of the Pacific region, such as the diversity, varied horizontal and vertical distributions, extent of coral reef habitats, the degree of dependence on vulnerable habitat, and wide range of taxa, including data-poor species. Within these limitations, this project identified research needs to sustain marine life in a changing climate.

High-frequency temperature variability mirrors fixed differences in thermal limits of the massive coral Porites lobata.

Spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics can drive adaptive differentiation when contrasting environments exert divergent selection pressures. This environmental and genetic heterogeneity can substantially influence population and community resilience to disturbance events. Here, we investigated corals from the highly variable back-reef habitats of Ofu Island in American Samoa that thrive in thermal conditions known to elicit widespread bleaching and mortality elsewhere. To investigate the relative importance of acclimation versus site of origin in shaping previously observed differences in coral tolerance limits at Ofu Island, specimens of the common Indo-Pacific coral Porites lobata from locations with differing levels of thermal variability were acclimated to low and high thermal variation in controlled common garden aquaria. Overall, there were minimal effects of the acclimation exposure. Corals native to the site with the highest level of daily variability grew fastest, regardless of acclimation treatment. When exposed to lethal thermal stress, corals native to both variable sites contained elevated levels of heat shock proteins and maintained photosynthetic performance for 1-2 days longer than corals from the stable environment. Despite being separated by <5 km, there was significant genetic differentiation among coral colonies (FST=0.206, P<0.0001; nuclear ribosomal DNA), whereas Symbiodiniaceae were all Cladocopium sp. (ITS type C15). Our study demonstrates consistent signatures of adaptation in growth and stress resistance in corals from naturally thermally variable habitats, suggesting that differences in the amount of thermal variability may be an important contributor to adaptive differentiation in reef-building corals.

Dredging in the Spratly Islands: Gaining Land but Losing Reefs.

Coral reefs on remote islands and atolls are less exposed to direct human stressors but are becoming increasingly vulnerable because of their development for geopolitical and military purposes. Here we document dredging and filling activities by countries in the South China Sea, where building new islands and channels on atolls is leading to considerable losses of, and perhaps irreversible damages to, unique coral reef ecosystems. Preventing similar damage across other reefs in the region necessitates the urgent development of cooperative management of disputed territories in the South China Sea. We suggest using the Antarctic Treaty as a positive precedent for such international cooperation.

Incorporating climate and ocean change into extinction risk assessments for 82 coral species.

Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration-requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species' extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats. Incorporación del Cambio Climático y Oceánico en Estudios de Riesgo de Extinción para 82 Especies de Coral.

The importance in fishery management of leaving the big ones.

Research by Berkeley et al. and by Bobko and Berkeley has recently demonstrated that older individuals of some fish species produce larvae that have substantially better survival potential than do larvae from younger fishes. These new findings augment established knowledge that larger individuals usually have exponentially greater fecundity. This is important because commercial fisheries and especially recreational fishing often target the larger fish. The protection of larger or older individuals is necessary for the sustainability of species currently exploited by humans.