Neural markers of mania that distinguish inpatient adolescents with bipolar disorder from those with other psychopathology.

Pediatric bipolar disorder (BD) is difficult to distinguish from other psychiatric disorders, a challenge which can result in delayed or incorrect interventions. Using neuroimaging we aimed to identify neural measures differentiating a rarified sample of inpatient adolescents with BD from other inpatient psychopathology (OP) and healthy adolescents (HC) during a reward task. We hypothesized reduced subcortical and elevated cortical activation in BD relative to other groups, and that these markers will be related to self-reported mania scores. We examined inpatient adolescents with diagnosis of BD-I/II (n = 29), OP (n = 43), and HC (n = 20) from the Inpatient Child and Adolescent Bipolar Spectrum Imaging study. Inpatient adolescents with BD showed reduced activity in right thalamus, left thalamus, and left amygdala, relative to inpatient adolescents with OP and HC. This reduced neural function explained 21% of the variance in past month and 23% of the variance in lifetime mania scores. Lower activity in regions associated with the reward network, during reward processing, differentiates BD from OP in inpatient adolescents and explains >20% of the variance in mania scores. These findings highlight potential targets to aid earlier identification of, and guide new treatment developments for, pediatric BD.

Psychiatric Polygenic Risk Scores Across Youth With Bipolar Disorder, Youth at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder, and Controls.

OBJECTIVE: There is a pronounced gap in knowledge regarding polygenic underpinnings of youth bipolar disorder (BD). This study aimed to compare polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in youth with BD, youth at high clinical and/or familial risk for BD (HR), and controls. METHOD: Participants were 344 youths of European ancestry (13-20 years old), including 136 youths with BD, 121 HR youths, and 87 controls. PRSs for BD, schizophrenia, major depressive disorder, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder were constructed using independent genome-wide summary statistics from adult cohorts. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between each PRS and diagnostic status (BD vs HR vs controls). All genetic analyses controlled for age, sex, and 2 genetic principal components. RESULTS: The BD group showed significantly higher BD-PRS than the control group (odds ratio = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.13-2.10, p = .006), with the HR group numerically intermediate. BD-PRS explained 7.9% of phenotypic variance. PRSs for schizophrenia, major depressive disorder, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder were not significantly different among groups. In the BD group, BD-PRS did not significantly differ in relation to BD subtype, age of onset, psychosis, or family history of BD. CONCLUSION: BD-PRS derived from adult genome-wide summary statistics is elevated in youth with BD. Absence of significant between-group differences in PRSs for other psychiatric disorders supports the specificity of BD-PRS in youth. These findings add to the biological validation of BD in youth and could have implications for early identification and diagnosis. To enhance clinical utility, future genome-wide association studies that focus specifically on early-onset BD are warranted, as are studies integrating additional genetic and environmental factors. DIVERSITY & INCLUSION STATEMENT: We worked to ensure sex and gender balance in the recruitment of human participants. One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as a member of one or more historically underrepresented sexual and/or gender groups in science. One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as a member of one or more historically underrepresented racial and/or ethnic groups in science. We actively worked to promote sex and gender balance in our author group. We actively worked to promote inclusion of historically underrepresented racial and/or ethnic groups in science in our author group. The author list of this paper includes contributors from the location and/or community where the research was conducted who participated in the data collection, design, analysis, and/or interpretation of the work.

Substance use outcomes from the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Extended Long-term Study (CAMELS).

BACKGROUND: Substance use problems and anxiety disorders are both highly prevalent and frequently cooccur in youth. The present study examined the benefits of successful anxiety treatment at 3-12 years after treatment completion on substance use outcomes (i.e. diagnoses and lifetime expected use). METHODS: The sample was from the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Extended Long-term Study (CAMELS), a naturalistic follow-up study to the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study (CAMS) which randomized youth to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT; Coping cat), medication (sertraline), their combination, or pill placebo. The first CAMELS visit occurred an average of 6.5 years following CAMS randomization. Participants were 319 youth (65.4% of the CAMS sample), aged 7-17 years at CAMS baseline assessment with a mean age of 17.6 years (range: 11-26 years) at the time of the first CAMELS follow-up. Substance use outcomes included diagnoses as well as lifetime substance use (i.e. alcohol and tobacco use). RESULTS: Eleven of 319 (3.4%) CAMELS participants were diagnosed with a substance use disorder at the initial follow-up visit. When compared to the population lifetime rate of 11.4%, the rate of diagnoses in the posttreated sample was significantly lower. Additionally, rates of lifetime alcohol use were lower than population rates at the initial and final follow-up visits. Rates of lifetime tobacco use were similarly lower than lifetime population rates at the initial visit (driven by significantly lower rates in the CBT treatment condition), but higher by the final visit. Furthermore, treatment remission (but not treatment response) was associated with a lower rate of substance use diagnoses at the initial follow-up visit, although rates of lifetime alcohol and tobacco use did not differ by treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Anxiety treatments confer a beneficial impact on problematic substance use (i.e. diagnoses) as well as on expected substance use (i.e. alcohol and tobacco use) for on average, a period of 6.5 years.

The stability and persistence of symptoms in childhood-onset ADHD.

The course of childhood-onset attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) varies across individuals; some will experience persistent symptoms while others' symptoms fluctuate or remit. We describe the longitudinal course of ADHD symptoms and associated clinical characteristics in adolescents with childhood-onset ADHD. Participants (aged 6-12 at baseline) from the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study who met DSM criteria for ADHD prior to age 12 were evaluated annually with the Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for eight years. At each timepoint, participants were categorized as meeting ADHD criteria, subthreshold criteria, or not having ADHD. Stability of course was defined by whether participants experienced consistent ADHD symptoms, fluctuating symptoms, or remission. The persistence of the symptoms was defined by symptom status at the final two follow-ups (stable ADHD, stable remission, stable partial remission, unstable). Of 685 baseline participants, 431 had childhood-onset ADHD and at least two follow-ups. Half had a consistent course of ADHD, nearly 40% had a remitting course, and the remaining participants had a fluctuating course. More than half of participants met criteria for ADHD at the end of their participation; about 30% demonstrated stable full remission, 15% had unstable symptoms, and one had stable partial remission. Participants with a persistent course and stable ADHD outcome reported the highest number of symptoms and were most impaired. This work builds on earlier studies that describe fluctuating symptoms in young people with childhood-onset ADHD. Results emphasize the importance of ongoing monitoring and detailed assessment of factors likely to influence course and outcome to help young people with childhood-onset ADHD.

Dialectical Behavior Therapy for Adolescents With Bipolar Disorder: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Early-onset bipolar disorder conveys substantial risk for suicide. No psychosocial intervention for this population expressly targets suicidal behavior. Objective: To determine whether dialectical behavior therapy (DBT) for adolescents with bipolar spectrum disorder is more effective than standard of care (SOC) psychotherapy in decreasing suicide attempts over 1 year. Design, Settings, and Participants: Adolescents aged 12 to 18 years diagnosed with bipolar spectrum disorder were recruited from a specialty outpatient psychiatric clinic between November 2014 and September 2019. Independent evaluators conducted quarterly assessments over 1 year with participants and parents. Data were analyzed from March 2021 to November 2022. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to 1 year of DBT (36 sessions; n = 47) or SOC psychotherapy (schedule clinically determined; n = 53). All youth received medication management via a flexible algorithm. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes included suicide attempts over 1 year and mood symptoms and states (depression and hypomania/mania). Secondary analyses included moderation of DBT effects by history of suicide attempt and mediation through emotion dysregulation. Results: Of 100 included participants, 85 (85%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 16.1 (1.6) years. Participants were followed up over a mean (SD) of 47 (14) weeks. Both treatment groups demonstrated significant and similar improvement in mood symptoms and episodes over 1 year (standardized depression rating scale slope, -0.17; 95% CI, -0.31 to -0.03; standardized mania rating scale slope, -0.24; 95% CI, -0.34 to -0.14). DBT and SOC participants reported similar suicide attempt rates at intake as measured on the Adolescent Longitudinal Follow-Up Evaluation (ALIFE; mean [SD] attempts, 2.0 [4.5] vs 1.8 [3.9], respectively; P = .80). DBT participants reported slightly more suicide attempts at intake as measured on the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale Pediatric Version (C-SSRS; mean [SD] attempts, 1.4 [3.6] vs 0.6 [0.9]; P = .02). DBT participants reported significantly fewer suicide attempts over follow-up compared with SOC participants via the ALIFE (mean [SD] attempts per follow-up period, 0.2 [0.4] vs 1.1 [4.3], controlling for baseline attempts: P = .03) and the C-SSRS (mean [SD] attempts per follow-up period, 0.04 [0.2] vs 0.10 [0.3], controlling for baseline attempts; P = .03). DBT was significantly more effective than SOC psychotherapy at decreasing suicide attempts over 1 year (ALIFE: incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.32; 95% CI, 0.11-0.96; C-SSRS: IRR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.02-0.78). Decreased rate of suicide attempts in DBT was moderated by presence of lifetime history of suicide attempt and time (IRR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.13-0.44) and mediated by improvement in emotion dysregulation (IRR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.42-0.89), particularly for those with high baseline emotion dysregulation (standardized ß, -0.59; 95% CI, -0.92 to -0.26). Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, DBT demonstrated efficacy in decreasing suicide attempts among the high-risk population of adolescents with bipolar spectrum disorder. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02003690.

Sleep patterns among preschool offspring of parents with and without psychopathology: Association with the development of psychopathology in childhood.

BACKGROUND: Disturbed sleep during early childhood predicts social-emotional problems. However, it is not known how various early childhood sleep phenotypes are associated with the development of childhood psychopathology, nor whether these relationships vary as a function of parental psychopathology. We identified sleep phenotypes among preschool youth; examined whether these phenotypes were associated with child and parent factors; and determined if early sleep phenotypes predicted later childhood psychopathology. METHODS: Using data from the Pittsburgh Bipolar Offspring study, parents with bipolar disorder (BD), non-BD psychopathology, and healthy controls reported about themselves and their offspring (n = 218) when their children were ages 2-5. Offspring and parents were interviewed directly approximately every 2 years from ages 6-18. Latent class analysis (LCA) identified latent sleep classes; we compared these classes on offspring demographics, parental sleep variables, and parental diagnoses. Kaplan-Meier survival models estimated hazard of developing any new-onset Axis-I disorders, as well as BD specifically, for each class. RESULTS: The optimal LCA solution featured four sleep classes, which we characterized as (1) good sleep, (2) wake after sleep onset problems, (3) bedtime problems (e.g., trouble falling asleep, resists going to bed), and (4) poor sleep generally. Good sleepers tended to have significantly less parental psychopathology than the other three classes. Risk of developing new-onset Axis-I disorders was highest among the poor sleep class and lowest among the good sleep class. CONCLUSIONS: Preschool sleep phenotypes are an important predictor of the development of psychopathology. Future work is needed to understand the biopsychosocial processes underlying these trajectories.

Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BD) conveys the highest risk of suicide of all mental disorders. We sought to externally validate a risk calculator (RC) of suicide attempts developed in youth with BD from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study in an adult sample. METHODS: A prospective cohort of adults with BD from the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study (CDS; N = 427; mean (+/- SD) age at intake (36 +/- 13 years)) was secondarily analyzed to validate the COBY RC for one-year risk of suicide attempts/deaths. Nine of the ten predictor variables from the COBY RC were available in the CDS and used: age, age of mood disorder onset, first and second (partial) degree family history of suicide, history of psychotic symptoms, substance use disorder, prior suicide attempt, socioeconomic status, and non-suicidal self-injury (prospectively, incompletely at baseline). RESULTS: Over a mean (SD) follow-up of 19 (10) years, 29 % of the CDS sample attempted suicide. The RC predicted suicide attempts/deaths over one-year follow-up with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78 (95 % CI 0.75-0.80). The RC performed slightly better in those with a younger age of mood disorder onset. LIMITATIONS: Clinical samples may limit generalizability; the RC does not assess more acute suicide risk. CONCLUSIONS: One-year risk of suicide attempts/deaths can be predicted with acceptable accuracy in youth and adults with BD, comparable to commonly used RCs to predict cardiovascular risk. This RC may help identify higher-risk individuals with BD for personalized treatment and research. https://cobysuicideattemptsrc.shinyapps.io/Shiny.

Asthma and anxiety in children and adolescents: characteristics and treatment outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: This study (a) examined anxious youth with and without asthma on measures of negative self-talk, parental psychopathology, worry content, physical symptoms, panic symptoms, generalized symptoms, and separation anxiety symptoms, and (b) tested if outpatient CBT or medication were differentially effective in reducing anxiety for youth with asthma and anxiety. METHODS: This secondary analysis separated youth with an anxiety disorder into asthma and non-asthma groups. Youth were also compared on response to treatments (i.e. CBT, sertraline, combined, and placebo). RESULTS: A total of 488 participants participated in the original study, with an average age of 10 years (SD 2.87). Youth with comorbid asthma and anxiety demonstrated higher rates of negative self-talk. Youth with comorbid asthma and anxiety did not differ from the non-asthma group on measures of physical symptoms, anxiety disorder specific symptoms, parental psychopathology, or worry content. Youth with asthma and anxiety responded similarly to the non-asthma group to treatment across treatment conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment was comparably effective for youth with comorbid asthma and anxiety and youth with anxiety. Future research could examine the effects of psychopharmaceuticals on asthma and anxiety comorbidity.

Adequacy of Children's Psychopharmacology Services: Variations by Race and Clinical Characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: An expert consensus approach was used to determine the adequacy of children's psychopharmacology and to examine whether adequacy varied by demographic or clinical characteristics. METHODS: Data were from the baseline interview of 601 children, ages 6-12 years, who had visited one of nine outpatient mental health clinics and participated in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms study. Children and parents were interviewed with the Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia and the Service Assessment for Children and Adolescents to assess the child's psychiatric symptoms and lifetime mental health services use, respectively. An expert consensus approach informed by published treatment guidelines was used to determine the adequacy of children's psychotropic medication treatment. RESULTS: Black children (compared with White children; OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.53-2.23) and those with anxiety disorders (vs. no anxiety disorder; OR=1.55, 95% CI=1.08-2.20) were more likely to receive inadequate pharmacotherapy; those whose caregivers had a bachelor's degree or more education (vs. those who had a high school education, general equivalency diploma, or less than high school education; OR=0.74, 95% CI=0.61-0.89) were less likely to receive inadequate pharmacotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: The consensus rater approach permitted use of published treatment efficacy data and patient characteristics (e.g., age, diagnoses, history of recent hospitalizations, and psychotherapy) to assess adequacy of pharmacotherapy. These results replicate findings of racial disparities reported in previous research using traditional methods to determine treatment adequacy (e.g., with a minimum number of treatment sessions) and highlight the continued need for research on racial disparities and strategies to improve access to high-quality care.

Study Preregistration: Measuring What Matters: Development and Dissemination of a Core Outcome Set for Pediatric Anxiety Disorders Clinical Trials.

Pediatric anxiety disorders (AD) are prevalent disorders with an impact on all aspects of a child's life and functioning.1 Although evidence supports commonly used treatments, there are notable concerns with the research to date.2 Heterogeneity in outcome selection, measurement, analysis, and reporting is a contributing factor to the hinderance of the translation of research into clinical practice.3 Recognition for outcome standardization in pediatric mental health disorders is evolving and there are several initiatives of importance, including the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM), which has developed standardized outcome sets for use in the routine clinical mental health treatment of children and adolescents.4 Similarly, the International Alliance of Mental Health Research Funders5 advocate for use of 1 specific outcome measurement instrument (OMI) in the youth mental health research that they fund. Development of a Core Outcome Set (COS), a minimal set of outcomes that should be measured and reported in clinical trials, has been a solution in other areas of medicine to address heterogeneity in outcome selection and measurement across trials.6 The Core Outcomes and Measures in Pediatric Anxiety Clinical Trials (COMPACT) Initiative will develop a harmonized, evidence- and consensus-based COS that is meaningful to youth and families for use in future trials in pediatric AD.

Polygenic Scores and Onset of Major Mood or Psychotic Disorders Among Offspring of Affected Parents.

OBJECTIVE: Family history is an established risk factor for mental illness. The authors sought to investigate whether polygenic scores (PGSs) can complement family history to improve identification of risk for major mood and psychotic disorders. METHODS: Eight cohorts were combined to create a sample of 1,884 participants ages 2-36 years, including 1,339 offspring of parents with mood or psychotic disorders, who were prospectively assessed with diagnostic interviews over an average of 5.1 years. PGSs were constructed for depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), schizophrenia, neuroticism, subjective well-being, p factor, and height (as a negative control). Cox regression was used to test associations between PGSs, family history of major mental illness, and onsets of major mood and psychotic disorders. RESULTS: There were 435 onsets of major mood and psychotic disorders across follow-up. PGSs for neuroticism (hazard ratio=1.23, 95% CI=1.12-1.36), schizophrenia (hazard ratio=1.15, 95% CI=1.04-1.26), depression (hazard ratio=1.11, 95% CI=1.01-1.22), ADHD (hazard ratio=1.10, 95% CI=1.00-1.21), subjective well-being (hazard ratio=0.90, 95% CI=0.82-0.99), and p factor (hazard ratio=1.14, 95% CI=1.04-1.26) were associated with onsets. After controlling for family history, neuroticism PGS remained significantly positively associated (hazard ratio=1.19, 95% CI=1.08-1.31) and subjective well-being PGS remained significantly negatively associated (hazard ratio=0.89, 95% CI=0.81-0.98) with onsets. CONCLUSIONS: Neuroticism and subjective well-being PGSs capture risk of major mood and psychotic disorders that is independent of family history, whereas PGSs for psychiatric illness provide limited predictive power when family history is known. Neuroticism and subjective well-being PGSs may complement family history in the early identification of persons at elevated risk.

Do youth anxiety measures assess the same construct consistently throughout treatment? Results are...complicated.

Interventionists interpret changes in symptoms as reflecting response to treatment. However, changes in symptom functioning and the measurement of the underlying constructs may be reflected in reported change. Longitudinal measurement invariance (LMI) is a statistical approach that assesses the degree to which measures consistently capture the same construct over time. We examined LMI in measures of anxiety severity/symptoms [i.e., Pediatric Anxiety Rating Scale (PARS), Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children (MASC), Screen for Child Anxiety and Related Disorders (SCARED)] in anxious youth at baseline and posttreatment. Initial fit was inadequate for 27 of 38 baseline and posttreatment models, but model modifications resulted in acceptable fit. Tests of LMI supported scalar invariance for the PARS and many, but not all, MASC and SCARED subscales. Findings suggest that the PARS, and many MASC and SCARED subscales can accurately be used to measure change over time, however, others may reflect changes in measurement properties.

Predicting bipolar disorder I/II in individuals at clinical high-risk: Results from a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: No systematic review has estimated the consistency and the magnitude of the risk of developing bipolar disorder I-II (BD-I/II) in individuals at clinical high risk for bipolar disorder (CHR-BD). METHODS: PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched until April 2022 in this pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42022346515) PRISMA-compliant systematic review to identify longitudinal studies in individuals meeting pre-defined CHR-BD criteria. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and results were systematically synthesized around CHR-BD criteria across follow-up periods and different subgroups. RESULTS: Altogether, 13 studies were included reporting on nine prospective independent cohorts (n = 678 individuals at CHR-BD). The mean age of participants was 15.7 years (range 10.1-22.6 years), and 54.2 % were females. The most common CHR-BD subgroup was subthreshold mania (55.5 %), followed by BD-Not Otherwise Specified (BD-NOS: 33.3 %). Development of BD I/II ranged from 7.1 % to 23.4 % after 2 years. Development of BD-I ranged from 3.4 % at 4 years to 23 % at 8 years. Development of BD-II ranged from 10 % at 2 years to 63.8 % at 4 years. The risk of developing BD-I appeared highest in those meeting BD-NOS criteria (23 % at eight years). Predictors of development of BD were identified but remained mostly unreplicated. The quality of the included studies was moderate (NOS = 5.2 ± 1.1). CONCLUSIONS: Emerging data from research studies point towards the promising utility of CHR-BD criteria. These studies may pave the way to the next generation of research, implementing detection, prognostication, and preventive interventions in individuals at CHR-BD identified and followed in clinical practice.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Child and Adolescent Symptom Inventory (CASI-4R) substance use subscale in detecting substance use disorders in youth.

Identifying substance use disorders (SUDs) early and accurately improves case formulation and treatment. Previous studies have investigated validity and reliability of the Child and Adolescent Symptom Inventory (CASI) for anxiety, mood, and behavior problems. The present study's aim was to test if the embedded CASI Substance Use (SU) subscale can discriminate adolescents and young adults (AYA) with and without a SUD diagnosis accurately enough to justify clinical application within an evidence-based assessment framework. N = 479 outpatient AYA (age 14-21) and their caregivers completed K-SADS-PLW semistructured diagnostic interviews; caregivers completed the CASI and adolescents completed a parallel version, the Youth (self-report) Inventory (YI). K-SADS-PLW indicated that 33 youth met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria for SUDs. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses found that both CASI and YI Substance Use subscale scores significantly identified K-SADS-diagnosed SUDs in AYA: Caregiver area under curve (AUC) = .91, p < .0005; YI(AUC) = .90, p < .0005. There was no significant difference in diagnostic accuracy between informants. Both subscales showed diagnostic and clinical utility in identifying AYA SUDs in outpatient mental health settings. Findings suggest that the CASI-4R subscale could be a helpful screening instrument for AYA SUDs. A case vignette illustrates the clinical application of study findings. Future research should examine rapport as a moderator of reporting accuracy, and replicate use of these measures under varying clinical scenarios. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Early indicators of bipolar risk in preschool offspring of parents with bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (BD-I/II) are at increased risk to develop the disorder. Previous work indicates that bipolar spectrum disorder (BPSD) is often preceded by mood/anxiety symptoms. In school-age offspring of parents with BD, we previously built a risk calculator to predict BPSD onset, which generates person-level risk scores. Here, we test whether preschool symptoms predict school-age BPSD risk. METHODS: We assessed 113 offspring of parents with BD 1-3 times during preschool years (2-5 years old) and then approximately every 2 years for a mean of 10.6 years. We used penalized (lasso) regression with linear mixed models to assess relationships between preschool mood, anxiety, and behavioral symptoms (parent-reported) and school-age predictors of BPSD onset (i.e., risk score, subthreshold manic symptoms, and mood lability), adjusting for demographics and parental symptomatology. Finally, we conducted survival analyses to assess associations between preschool symptoms and school-age onset of BPSD and mood disorder. RESULTS: Of 113 preschool offspring, 33 developed new-onset mood disorder, including 19 with new-onset BPSD. Preschool irritability, sleep problems, and parental factors were lasso-selected predictors of school-age risk scores. After accounting for demographic and parental factors, preschool symptoms were no longer significant. Lasso regressions to predict mood lability and subthreshold manic symptoms yielded similar predictors (irritability, sleep problems, and parental affective lability), but preschool symptoms remained predictive even after adjusting for parental factors (ps < .005). Exploratory analyses indicated that preschool irritability univariately predicted new-onset BPSD (p = .02) and mood disorder (p = .02). CONCLUSIONS: These results provide initial prospective evidence that, as early as preschool, youth who will develop elevated risk scores, mood lability, and subthreshold manic symptoms are already showing symptomatology; these preschool symptoms also predict new-onset BPSD. While replication of findings in larger samples is warranted, results point to the need for earlier assessment of risk and development of early interventions.

A Risk Calculator to Predict Suicide Attempts Among Individuals With Early-Onset Bipolar Disorder.

Objectives: To build a one-year risk calculator (RC) to predict individualized risk for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder. Methods: Youth numbering 394 with bipolar disorder who completed ≥2 follow-up assessments (median follow-up length = 13.1 years) in the longitudinal Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study were included. Suicide attempt over follow-up was assessed via the A-LIFE Self-Injurious/Suicidal Behavior scale. Predictors from the literature on suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder that are readily assessed in clinical practice were selected and trichotomized as appropriate (presence past 6 months/lifetime history only/no lifetime history). The RC was trained via boosted multinomial classification trees; predictions were calibrated via Platt scaling. Half of the sample was used to train, and the other half to independently test the RC. Results: There were 249 suicide attempts among 106 individuals. Ten predictors accounted for >90% of the cross-validated relative influence in the model (AUC = 0.82; in order of relative influence): (1) age of mood disorder onset; (2) non-suicidal self-injurious behavior (trichotomized); (3) current age; (4) psychosis (trichotomized); (5) socioeconomic status; (6) most severe depressive symptoms in past 6 months (trichotomized none/subthreshold/threshold); (7) history of suicide attempt (trichotomized); (8) family history of suicidal behavior; (9) substance use disorder (trichotomized); (10) lifetime history of physical/sexual abuse. For all trichotomized variables, presence in the past 6 months reliably predicted higher risk than lifetime history. Conclusions: This RC holds promise as a clinical and research tool for prospective identification of individualized high-risk periods for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.Reprinted from Bipolar Disord 2022; 24:749-757, with permission from John Wiley and Sons. Copyright © 2022.

A risk calculator to predict suicide attempts among individuals with early-onset bipolar disorder.

OBJECTIVES: To build a one-year risk calculator (RC) to predict individualized risk for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder. METHODS: Youth numbering 394 with bipolar disorder who completed ≥2 follow-up assessments (median follow-up length = 13.1 years) in the longitudinal Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study were included. Suicide attempt over follow-up was assessed via the A-LIFE Self-Injurious/Suicidal Behavior scale. Predictors from the literature on suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder that are readily assessed in clinical practice were selected and trichotomized as appropriate (presence past 6 months/lifetime history only/no lifetime history). The RC was trained via boosted multinomial classification trees; predictions were calibrated via Platt scaling. Half of the sample was used to train, and the other half to independently test the RC. RESULTS: There were 249 suicide attempts among 106 individuals. Ten predictors accounted for >90% of the cross-validated relative influence in the model (AUC = 0.82; in order of relative influence): (1) age of mood disorder onset; (2) non-suicidal self-injurious behavior (trichotomized); (3) current age; (4) psychosis (trichotomized); (5) socioeconomic status; (6) most severe depressive symptoms in past 6 months (trichotomized none/subthreshold/threshold); (7) history of suicide attempt (trichotomized); (8) family history of suicidal behavior; (9) substance use disorder (trichotomized); (10) lifetime history of physical/sexual abuse. For all trichotomized variables, presence in the past 6 months reliably predicted higher risk than lifetime history. CONCLUSIONS: This RC holds promise as a clinical and research tool for prospective identification of individualized high-risk periods for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.