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Background: Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used by tuberculosis (TB) programs to monitor Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. We aimed to characterise the molecular epidemiology of TB and Mtb transmission in the low-incidence setting of Victoria, Australia, and assess the utility of WGS. Methods: WGS was performed on all first Mtb isolates from TB cases from 2017 to 2020. Potential clusters (≤12 single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) were investigated for epidemiological links. Transmission events in highly-related (≤5 SNPs) clusters were classified as likely or possible, based on the presence or absence of an epidemiological link, respectively. Case characteristics and transmission settings (as defined by case relationship) were summarised. Poisson regression was used to examine associations with secondary case number. Findings: Of 1844 TB cases, 1276 (69.2%) had sequenced isolates, with 182 (14.2%) in 54 highly-related clusters, 2-40 cases in size. Following investigation, 140 cases (11.0% of sequenced) were classified as resulting from likely/possible local-transmission, including 82 (6.4%) for which transmission was likely. Common identified transmission settings were social/religious (26.4%), household (22.9%) and family living in different households (7.1%), but many were uncertain (41.4%). While household transmission featured in many clusters (n = 24), clusters were generally smaller (median = 3 cases) than the fewer that included transmission in social/religious settings (n = 12, median = 7.5 cases). Sputum-smear-positivity was associated with higher secondary case numbers. Interpretation: WGS results suggest Mtb transmission commonly occurs outside the household in our low-incidence setting. Further work is required to optimise the use of WGS in public health management of TB. Funding: The Victorian Tuberculosis Program receives block funding for activities including case management and contact tracing from the Victorian Department of Health. No specific funding for this report was received by manuscript authors or the Victorian Tuberculosis Program, and the funders had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation or report writing.
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INTRODUCTION: Buruli Ulcer (BU) is caused by the environmental microbe Mycobacterium ulcerans. Despite unclear transmission, contact with a BU endemic region is the key known risk factor. In Victoria, Australia, where endemic areas have been carefully mapped, we aimed to estimate the Incubation Period (IP) of BU by interviewing patients who reported defined periods of contact with an endemic area prior to BU diagnosis. METHOD: A retrospective review was undertaken of 408 notifications of BU in Victoria from 2002 to 2012. Telephone interviews using a structured questionnaire and review of notification records were performed. Patients with a single visit exposure to a defined endemic area were included and the period from exposure to disease onset determined (IP). RESULTS: We identified 111 of 408 notified patients (27%) who had a residential address outside a known endemic area, of whom 23 (6%) reported a single visit exposure within the previous 24 months. The median age of included patients was 30 years (range: 6 to 73) and 65% were male. 61% had visited the Bellarine Peninsula, currently the most active endemic area. The median time from symptom onset to diagnosis was 71 days (range: 34-204 days). The midpoint of the reported IP range was utilized to calculate a point estimate of the IP for each case. Subsequently, the mean IP for the cohort was calculated at 135 days (IQR: 109-160; CI 95%: 113.9-156), corresponding to 4.5 months or 19.2 weeks. The shortest IP recorded was 32 days and longest 264 days (Figure 1 & 2). IP did not vary for variables investigated. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated mean IP of BU in Victoria is 135 days (IQR: 109-160 days), 4.5 months. The shortest recorded was IP 34 days and longest 264 days. A greater understanding of BU IP will aid clinical risk assessment and future research.
